first round WR - be very, very careful...

Good post and interesting.

Don't agree on the word "bust" which, to me, means almost average. We had 2 real busts in our past drafts - JJStokes and Rashawn Woods.

Most of the guys you listed have NOT produced to the level their draft selection number should merit. I think Percy Harvin will continue to get better and be a threat. Also Meechum will get better.

To me a receive taken in the top 15 should be a difference maker on their teams in their 1st season. 16 - 25 Very Solid contributor and must be considered by opposing teams game plans and 26-32 a contributor and demonstrates a huge upside with noticeable improvement all season long.

You are not looking far enough into something called "extenuating circumstances".

Take Meachem, for instance... He is certainly no bust. He had the misfortune (fortune) of going to a good team with lots of passing targets playing great football already. He was never used as a feature WR, but as one of many weapons rotating in and out.

Could he have dominated for some team in desperate need of a starting WR? We can only speculate.

This thread is wack, id take most of those guys that you consider busts on this team any day of the week

Originally posted by SF69ers:

Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.

Originally posted by Travisty13:
You have a R.O.Y., 5 probowlers, 3 all-pro WRs considered busts. Plus you consider guys that aren't even 3 years in to the league considered busts already.

Yea, I have no idea what his bust criteria is.

My criteria is production I expect for a career from a first round draft pick. How many 1000 yard season are among those I considered busts? By my quick count 4!! 4 1000 yard season from 30 players in the last 10 years. I don't know if 4 1000 yard seasons from ONE player the last 10 years is what I expect from a first round pick.

OK. If you are moving up to mid first round... or even selecting late first, which of those players has PRODUCED the type of numbers you want from that pick.
Pro Bowlers - Harvin as a returner, Edwards in his ONE great season, Roy Williams ONE time in his ONE 1000 yard season, (10 yrs one 1k season),

Help me out... Who was the ROY, and the other 3 pro bowlers... as well as the 3 all pro WR's? I assume that Braylon and Roy Williams with their ONE great season were pro bowl and all pro, so who else...

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Good post and interesting.

Don't agree on the word "bust" which, to me, means almost average. We had 2 real busts in our past drafts - JJStokes and Rashawn Woods.

Most of the guys you listed have NOT produced to the level their draft selection number should merit. I think Percy Harvin will continue to get better and be a threat. Also Meechum will get better.

To me a receive taken in the top 15 should be a difference maker on their teams in their 1st season. 16 - 25 Very Solid contributor and must be considered by opposing teams game plans and 26-32 a contributor and demonstrates a huge upside with noticeable improvement all season long.

Agreed my choice of the word "Bust" is not accurate, as many of these guys are average players... but, as you mentioned they haven't produced at the level I would expect for a first round pick... and some of them are still young and have tons of upside.

i stopped reading at D. Bryant and D. Thomas as busts. good god almighty. wonder what your criteria is for anti-bust

Originally posted by valrod33:
This thread is wack, id take most of those guys that you consider busts on this team any day of the week

I'm not saying that I wouldn't take a lot of those guys drafted in the last few years either, BUT I wouldn't trade my first round pick for most of them though...

Thomas and Bryant would probably be the only two guys that I would trade my first round pick for... Maclin, Harvin... maybe. But for the purpose of my point, I was not looking at POTENTIAL - hell every player ever drafted in the first round obviously has potential... we got Ashley Lelie because of his potential.... I was solely looking at their production, and neither Thomas nor Bryant have put up 1000 yards yet, Thomas really hasn't done anything.... Dez Bryant is on the cusp of being a super star... but he hasn't done it yet.

It is simply foolish to label any first rd WR a bust until they have played at least 3-4 years in the league. How on earth can you label Demaryius THomas a bust? He had Tim Tebow as his QB this season. You could have put Calvin Johnson on that team and he wouldnt have gotten 1000 yards. Tell the Steelers that he is a bust.

Rookie Wrs typically take a year or two to get the pro system and make huge impacts. Obviously expectations are high for a 1st round pick taken in the top 10 to produce right away but it doesnt happen most of the time. That doesnt mean they are busts or arent #1 receivers for their teams.

Originally posted by Negrodamus:
i stopped reading at D. Bryant and D. Thomas as busts. good god almighty. wonder what your criteria is for anti-bust

How about 1000 yard season?

As I have said, I think BOTH of these guys will eventually live up to their draft position, and the word BUST was not the appropriate term... but the point that I am making is that NEITHER of these players have put up numbers (Bryant is arguable - 2 years 1500 yards and a good amount of TD's but NO 1000 yard season)

Bryant I can understand... his numbers weren't bad last year, and he's dealt with INJ's... but Thomas has not done anything until the last few games of last year and the playoffs... his numbers so far in his career are far less than what you would expect from a first round pick... or at least less than I would expect.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
It is simply foolish to label any first rd WR a bust until they have played at least 3-4 years in the league. How on earth can you label Demaryius THomas a bust? He had Tim Tebow as his QB this season. You could have put Calvin Johnson on that team and he wouldnt have gotten 1000 yards. Tell the Steelers that he is a bust.

Rookie Wrs typically take a year or two to get the pro system and make huge impacts. Obviously expectations are high for a 1st round pick taken in the top 10 to produce right away but it doesnt happen most of the time. That doesnt mean they are busts or arent #1 receivers for their teams.

Agreed. I added the players in the last few years so that someone wouldn't say that it was a trend, and look at the last few years there are far more successful first round WR's... that simply hasn't been proven yet. So I was looking at a very limited sample size for those players and that makes it much harder to label them as a success or bust based on threir draft position... SO with that being said I will NOT look at anyone in the last 4 drafts...

22 of the 30 WR's (73%) drafted from 2001-2007 have NOT lived up to the expectations of a first round draft pick... IF you want to say that Braylon Edwards and Robert Meachem and even Roy Williams have met or exceeded expectations (with thier COMBINED TWO 1000 yard season) then FINE... not what I want or expect from a first round pick, and I would be dissapointed if we draft a WR with our first pick and he puts up those types of numbers. With those three added that is still 19 of 30 who failed to meet expectations 63%.

2007 Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech (2nd pick - Detroit) Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (9th pick – Miami) Dwayne Bowe, LSU (23rd pick - Kansas City) Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans) Craig Davis, LSU (30th pick - San Diego) Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State (32nd pick- Indianapolis)

2006 Santonio Holmes, Ohio State (25th pick - Pittsburgh)

2005 Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland) Troy Williamson, South Carolina (7th pick – Minnesota) Mike Williams, USC (10th pick – Detroit) Matt Jones, Arkansas (21st pick – Jacksonville) Mark Clayton, Oklahoma (22nd pick – Baltimore) Roddy White, UAB (27th pick – Atlanta)

2004 Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh (3rd pick – Arizona) Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit) Reggie Williams, Washington (9th pick – Jacksonville) Michael Jenkins, Ohio State (29th pick – Atlanta) Rashaun Woods, Oklahoma State (31st pick – San Francisco)

2003 Charles Rogers, Michigan State (2nd pick – Detroit) Andre Johnson, Miami-FL (3rd pick – Houston) Bryant Johnson, Penn State (17th pick – Arizona)

2002 Donte Stallworth, Tennessee (13th pick, New Orleans) Ashley Lelie, Hawaii (19th pick - Denver) Javon Walker, Florida State (20th pick – Green Bay)

2001 David Terrell, Michigan (8th pick – Chicago) Koren Robinson, NC State (9th pick – Seattle) Rod Gardner, Clemson (15th pick – Washington) Santana Moss, Miami-FL (16th pick - NY Jets) Freddie Mitchell, UCLA (25th pick – Philadelphia) Reggie Wayne, Miami-FL (30th pick – Indianapolis)

Originally posted by Pick6:
My criteria is production I expect for a career from a first round draft pick. How many 1000 yard season are among those I considered busts? By my quick count 4!! 4 1000 yard season from 30 players in the last 10 years. I don't know if 4 1000 yard seasons from ONE player the last 10 years is what I expect from a first round pick.

OK. If you are moving up to mid first round... or even selecting late first, which of those players has PRODUCED the type of numbers you want from that pick.
Pro Bowlers - Harvin as a returner, Edwards in his ONE great season, Roy Williams ONE time in his ONE 1000 yard season, (10 yrs one 1k season),

Help me out... Who was the ROY, and the other 3 pro bowlers... as well as the 3 all pro WR's? I assume that Braylon and Roy Williams with their ONE great season were pro bowl and all pro, so who else...

Ok, but it almost seems like to you, 1st round talent need to have Hall of Fame worthy numbers. That's not how it works. The draft is a crapshoot. Players coming out from college need to be developed in the pros within the correct system. You call some of these players busts, but take a look at their situations on offense too. Wide receivers are one of the toughest positions to adjust to coming into the pros and sometimes need more time to develop. I can make an argument for some of these "busts"

Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt (26th pick KC) - rookie year. struggled with injury. offense sputtered with the loss of Jamal Charles and the ineptness of Todd Haley.
Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver) - second year. struggled with injury both years. progressed in his second year despite an offense under Tim Tebow. really blew up in the playoffs with 10 receptions, 297 yards, and a TD in two games.
Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas) - late 1st round pick and second year in the league. progressed in his second year almost surpassing 1,000 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Also a very dangerous return man. Not even close to being a bust.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland)- top 10 pick and third year in the league. I can see why he could be argued as a bust, although he has progressed mightily in his third year in a better offense. 975 yards is not too shabby considering who was throwing to him.
Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco) - top 10 pick and third year in the league. With the amount of money he's getting, "bust" can be argued especially with his infamous preseason disappearances. As far as performance on the field, he plays in an offense that's been bottom ten all the years he's been here. Problem could've been Singletary or Alex Smith. He has progressed every year and is considered one of the better run blockers at the WR position.
Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia) - late 1st round pick and third year in the league. Has put up consistent numbers as the #2 receiver on the team. Don't know why he'd be considered a bust. Battles nagging injuries, but 762, 964, and 859 yards are not "bust" numbers.
Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota) - late 1st round pick and third year in the league. Has had 60 receptions or more in all three seasons. 790, 868, and 967 yards respectively. 5 TDs or more in each season. Dangerous return ability. Also rushes the ball out of the backfield. As a late 1st rounder, doesn't sound like a bust at all.
Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee) - late 1st round and third year in the league. Injury prone. Surpassed his rookie numbers in his 2nd year, but missed 4 games. Last season, in 3 games was averaging almost 100 yards/game before being lost for the season. Not to mention he had these numbers with Vince Young at QB. He was beginning to flourish with Hasselbeck.
Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans) - late round pick and fourth year in the league. Plays in an offense that uses multiple weapons. Wasn't necessarily drafted to be a game changer, but plays great in his role. Reliable target for Brees and was never asked to do too much.
Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland) - as the 3rd pick in the draft, you'd expect better numbers which is why I can see the argument for calling him a bust. Although, he's only surpassed 1,000 yards once, he's shown that he can be a threat in the passing game if healthy.
Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit) - falls in the same category as Braylon Edwards. Played for a real bad Detroit team and showed some talent, but really digressed the past few seasons.

Originally posted by SF69ers:
Ok, but it almost seems like to you, 1st round talent need to have Hall of Fame worthy numbers. That's not how it works. The draft is a crapshoot. Players coming out from college need to be developed in the pros within the correct system. You call some of these players busts, but take a look at their situations on offense too. Wide receivers are one of the toughest positions to adjust to coming into the pros and sometimes need more time to develop. I can make an argument for some of these "busts"

Jonathan Baldwin, Pitt (26th pick KC) - rookie year. struggled with injury. offense sputtered with the loss of Jamal Charles and the ineptness of Todd Haley.
Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver) - second year. struggled with injury both years. progressed in his second year despite an offense under Tim Tebow. really blew up in the playoffs with 10 receptions, 297 yards, and a TD in two games.
Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas) - late 1st round pick and second year in the league. progressed in his second year almost surpassing 1,000 yards receiving with 9 TDs. Also a very dangerous return man. Not even close to being a bust.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland)- top 10 pick and third year in the league. I can see why he could be argued as a bust, although he has progressed mightily in his third year in a better offense. 975 yards is not too shabby considering who was throwing to him.
Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco) - top 10 pick and third year in the league. With the amount of money he's getting, "bust" can be argued especially with his infamous preseason disappearances. As far as performance on the field, he plays in an offense that's been bottom ten all the years he's been here. Problem could've been Singletary or Alex Smith. He has progressed every year and is considered one of the better run blockers at the WR position.
Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia) - late 1st round pick and third year in the league. Has put up consistent numbers as the #2 receiver on the team. Don't know why he'd be considered a bust. Battles nagging injuries, but 762, 964, and 859 yards are not "bust" numbers.
Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota) - late 1st round pick and third year in the league. Has had 60 receptions or more in all three seasons. 790, 868, and 967 yards respectively. 5 TDs or more in each season. Dangerous return ability. Also rushes the ball out of the backfield. As a late 1st rounder, doesn't sound like a bust at all.
Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee) - late 1st round and third year in the league. Injury prone. Surpassed his rookie numbers in his 2nd year, but missed 4 games. Last season, in 3 games was averaging almost 100 yards/game before being lost for the season. Not to mention he had these numbers with Vince Young at QB. He was beginning to flourish with Hasselbeck.
Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans) - late round pick and fourth year in the league. Plays in an offense that uses multiple weapons. Wasn't necessarily drafted to be a game changer, but plays great in his role. Reliable target for Brees and was never asked to do too much.
Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland) - as the 3rd pick in the draft, you'd expect better numbers which is why I can see the argument for calling him a bust. Although, he's only surpassed 1,000 yards once, he's shown that he can be a threat in the passing game if healthy.
Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit) - falls in the same category as Braylon Edwards. Played for a real bad Detroit team and showed some talent, but really digressed the past few seasons.

I agree. All of the players that you point out, I can clearly see your point. I am NOT saying that these are BAD players. And you may have convinced me that I should jump off the fence that I sit regarding Maclin and Harvin. I think Thomas and Bryant will be great...

I think what you say just makes my point about being very very careful regarding a first round WR... even if you get a talented guy there is no guarantee that he will produce. WR is the biggest crap shoot in the draft and toughest position to develope quickly in the NFL... not to mention, the 9ers haven't had much success since Rice in the first round - Stokes, Woods and Crabtree. I'd rather take a TO in the third

Originally posted by Pick6:
I agree. All of the players that you point out, I can clearly see your point. I am NOT saying that these are BAD players. And you may have convinced me that I should jump off the fence that I sit regarding Maclin and Harvin. I think Thomas and Bryant will be great...

I think what you say just makes my point about being very very careful regarding a first round WR... even if you get a talented guy there is no guarantee that he will produce. WR is the biggest crap shoot in the draft and toughest position to develope quickly in the NFL... not to mention, the 9ers haven't had much success since Rice in the first round - Stokes, Woods and Crabtree. I'd rather take a TO in the third

I see what you're saying for sure. I do feel like we have the appropriate coaching staff to actually develop players this time around. Whether our pick ends up being Sanu in the 1st, or Hill/Streeter in the 3rd, I'll have faith in our staff.

On the whole Demaryius issue, Pick 6 is right as he really has not performed to his potential due to drops... he exploded in the playoffs but was lackluster all season. But then again, look at his QB's.

The standards are different in todays NFL. Spread offenses give QB's more yards, but they also increase his receiving options, for example Brees broke the yards record but his leading WR(not TE) wasn't even top ten in receiving for WR's. Also some of the receivers listed had productive first contracts but flamed out on their second contract or team.

Just off a quick count from espn, there were 17 WR's over 1000 yards, 5 from the 1st round, 4 of those receivers you mentioned as busts had 900+ yards, 2 over 850+ yards. Yet they are all in the top 30 receiving which IMO should be the benchmark if you assume each team has one #1 WR which in a perfect world would be a teams past 1st round pick. Busts imo are players that give no significant contribution to the team for the position they were intended. (ie: Balmer, Woods, Coffee, etc)
But I agree, dont draft a WR in the first unless its BPA because out of the top 5 receivers in the NFL in terms of yards, 2 went in the first round and 2 went undrafted... the WR is just a crapshoot if there isnt a complete Freak like CJ or AJ Green available.

I agree with the message of this thread, but the examples and who are labeled "busts" are downright ridiculous.