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first round WR - be very, very careful...

The last 10 years of first round WR's.... FAR more *average players* or busts than greats (30 of the last 41 WR have not put up NUMBERS worthy of their draft position IMO). Obviously there is still time for some of the guys drafted the last few years, but as of now below in BOLD are the ones that HAVE NOT lived up to expectations to this point IMO... Wow... I really didn't know this was going to be the results when I started looking...

2011 AJ Green, Gerogia (4th pick Cincinnati) Julio Jones, Alabama (6th pick Atlanta) Jonathon Baldwin, Pitt (26th pick KC)

2010 Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas)

2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco) Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia) Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota) Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (29th pick - NY Giants) Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee)

2008 No wide receivers selected in first round.

2007 Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech (2nd pick - Detroit) Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (9th pick – Miami) Dwayne Bowe, LSU (23rd pick - Kansas City) Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans) Craig Davis, LSU (30th pick - San Diego) Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State (32nd pick- Indianapolis)

2006 Santonio Holmes, Ohio State (25th pick - Pittsburgh)

2005 Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland) Troy Williamson, South Carolina (7th pick – Minnesota) Mike Williams, USC (10th pick – Detroit) Matt Jones, Arkansas (21st pick – Jacksonville) Mark Clayton, Oklahoma (22nd pick – Baltimore) Roddy White, UAB (27th pick – Atlanta)

2004 Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh (3rd pick – Arizona) Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit) Reggie Williams, Washington (9th pick – Jacksonville) Michael Jenkins, Ohio State (29th pick – Atlanta) Rashaun Woods, Oklahoma State (31st pick – San Francisco)

2003 Charles Rogers, Michigan State (2nd pick – Detroit) Andre Johnson, Miami-FL (3rd pick – Houston) Bryant Johnson, Penn State (17th pick – Arizona) 2002 Donte Stallworth, Tennessee (13th pick, New Orleans) Ashley Lelie, Hawaii (19th pick - Denver) Javon Walker, Florida State (20th pick – Green Bay)

2001 David Terrell, Michigan (8th pick – Chicago) Koren Robinson, NC State (9th pick – Seattle) Rod Gardner, Clemson (15th pick – Washington) Santana Moss, Miami-FL (16th pick - NY Jets) Freddie Mitchell, UCLA (25th pick – Philadelphia) Reggie Wayne, Miami-FL (30th pick – Indianapolis)
[ Edited by Pick6 on Feb 14, 2012 at 2:01 PM ]
Member Milestone: This is post number 1,000 for saj4423.
Sometimes if you want you top of the line WR you have to be like Lions and keep trying until you find you Calvin Johnson. It's a little quick to call some of those guys busts and you can do the same analysis for any position.
Originally posted by saj4423:
Sometimes if you want you top of the line WR you have to be like Lions and keep trying until you find you Calvin Johnson. It's a little quick to call some of those guys busts and you can do the same analysis for any position.


Agreed, I think anyone since 2009 still has a chance to salvage the bust label. My thinking was have they been pro bowl - all pro type players... among the best at their position. Some of those guys have had injuries etc, but regardless I don't think the teams drafting them have got what they expected in return. Even if you give all the guys since 2009 a pass and say they aren't busts, thats still over half - 22 of 41!

I don't know if there are as high of a percentage of busts at other positions... I really didn't expect it to be THAT high - OVER 70% busts, but you may be right.
This philosophy coupled with the 9ers other pending FA, and the amount of depth in middle round receivers, makes me prefer not to draft a WR in the 1st. Personally I would rather draft 2 receivers in the middle rounds than just one receiver in the 1st.
What's your definition of a "bust"? I'm intrigued to know what the criteria is to be labeled a bust or not.......
for me, it's having a 1,000 rec yards or having 65 + recs during their tenure with the team.


Also, that's why i want to draft bpa.
Originally posted by Pick6:
The last 10 years of first round WR's.... FAR more busts than greats (30 of the last 41 WR taken in the first round have been busts IMO). Obviously there is still time for some of the guys drafted the last few years, but as of now below in BOLD are the ones that HAVE NOT lived up to expectations IMO... 2011 is the only year in the last 10 in which there haven't been more busts than booms. Wow... I really didn't know this was going to be the results when I started looking...

2011 AJ Green, Gerogia (4th pick Cincinnati) Julio Jones, Alabama (6th pick Atlanta) Jonathon Baldwin, Pitt (26th pick KC)
1/3 busts

2010 Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas)
2/2 busts

2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco) Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia) Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota) Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (29th pick - NY Giants) Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee)
5/6 busts

2008 No wide receivers selected in first round.

2007 Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech (2nd pick - Detroit) Ted Ginn, Jr., Ohio State (9th pick – Miami) Dwayne Bowe, LSU (23rd pick - Kansas City) Robert Meachem, Tennessee (27th pick - New Orleans) Craig Davis, LSU (30th pick - San Diego) Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State (32nd pick- Indianapolis)
4/6 busts

2006 Santonio Holmes, Ohio State (25th pick - Pittsburgh)
0/1 busts

2005 Braylon Edwards, Michigan (3rd pick – Cleveland) Troy Williamson, South Carolina (7th pick – Minnesota) Mike Williams, USC (10th pick – Detroit) Matt Jones, Arkansas (21st pick – Jacksonville) Mark Clayton, Oklahoma (22nd pick – Baltimore) Roddy White, UAB (27th pick – Atlanta)
5/6 busts

2004 Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh (3rd pick – Arizona) Roy Williams, Texas (7th pick – Detroit) Reggie Williams, Washington (9th pick – Jacksonville) Michael Jenkins, Ohio State (29th pick – Atlanta) Rashaun Woods, Oklahoma State (31st pick – San Francisco)
4/5 busts

2003 Charles Rogers, Michigan State (2nd pick – Detroit) Andre Johnson, Miami-FL (3rd pick – Houston) Bryant Johnson, Penn State (17th pick – Arizona) 2002 Donte Stallworth, Tennessee (13th pick, New Orleans) Ashley Lelie, Hawaii (19th pick - Denver) Javon Walker, Florida State (20th pick – Green Bay)
5/6 busts

2001 David Terrell, Michigan (8th pick – Chicago) Koren Robinson, NC State (9th pick – Seattle) Rod Gardner, Clemson (15th pick – Washington) Santana Moss, Miami-FL (16th pick - NY Jets) Freddie Mitchell, UCLA (25th pick – Philadelphia) Reggie Wayne, Miami-FL (30th pick – Indianapolis)
4/6 busts

Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.
You have a R.O.Y., 5 probowlers, 3 all-pro WRs considered busts. Plus you consider guys that aren't even 3 years in to the league considered busts already.
It's definitely no guarantee. But if you can find one it can really help you.
Originally posted by Travisty13:
You have a R.O.Y., 5 probowlers, 3 all-pro WRs considered busts. Plus you consider guys that aren't even 3 years in to the league considered busts already.

This. Demarius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Maclin, HArvin, Britt busts??? Hardly busts at this point.
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.


Originally posted by Travisty13:
You have a R.O.Y., 5 probowlers, 3 all-pro WRs considered busts. Plus you consider guys that aren't even 3 years in to the league considered busts already.

Yea, I have no idea what his bust criteria is.
Yea homie your thread had major potential til you stumped us all with your criteria for what a busts is. Rashaun Woods must be a category 5 bust
[ Edited by lamontb on Feb 14, 2012 at 1:23 PM ]
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas

What football are you watching?

This is as far as I read until giving up.

Point taken though... WRs in the first are a risk... this is not a revelation.
This thread is a bust
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.

I said earlier ANYONE picked since 2009 still has a chance to have first round value, but IMO they haven't done it yet.
"Busts" may not be the best word, BUT which one of these players has produced like you would want your first round pick? Why would you draft a #2 or less WR in the first round? Do you want a SOLID WR or a stud with your first round pick? My point is why waste a first round pick on talent that you can get in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc...
Thomas - injuries have slowed him, but 834 yds and 6 td's in 2 years - first round production?
Bryant - He is probably going to be a stud, but 1489 and 15 in two years - no 1000 yet. he was probably the toughest call, but NO 1000 yard season.
Crabtree - come on - 625, 741 and 874 - 2, 6 and 4 tds? IS THIS WHAT YOU EXPECTED WITH THE 10th pick in the draft? (looks similar to a 6th rounder I know)
Maclin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons... was he drafted for 10 td's ONCE? he has 4 and 5 in the other two years
Harvin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard sesons (common point) 17 tds. His PRO BOWL was as a returner... is that why he was drafted first round?
Britt - injuries have killed Britt. In three years he has 1765 (775 high in yards) 15 tds - ZERO 1000 yard seasons
Meachem - Really?? 289, 722, 638, 620 yards - 3, 9, 5, 6 tds. 4 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons.
Edwards - One great yr doesn't make him worthy IMO - One 1000 yard season in 9 years (904 and 7 is second best year) He's avged 590 yards and 4.3 TD's

This is not the type of production I want with my first round pick... if you think this is adequate for a first round pick, then obviously our expectations are far different.

AGAIN - some of these guys might end up being worth the pick, but right now IMO they haven't produced enough to warrent where they were selected.