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If you could redo one of the 49ers pick who would you take.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I don't think you fully read my post. As stated in my post, this re-do of the Niners draft is based on the idea that a) the Niners did not trade up or down at number 7 (although I would have been happy to move picks for Peterson); and b) they did not make the trade for Kaepernick, nor for Kilgore. So, the added pick in the fourth and sixth round exists (12 selections overall), and hence, Cannon would have been my second fourth round pick.

As for selecting guys who went after the Niners' selection, that is always the main premise. You can't select guys who went before.

To my knowledge, I have never used the word, "reach", for Smith at 7. Since I projected him to go at 11, he was in the area I suspected a team might select him. I avoid saying "reach" because it makes people angry, frustrated, irrational. I use the term, "value", instead. You are right that some may say that Smith may have more value than Watt, but team boards are varied. What some team may value in Watt, may not be what they value in Smith. On my board, Smith does not have 7th overall value, since I do not believe he is near the 7th overall best player. Many teams would probably agree with me. At the same time, some would disagree and say that Smith does has 7th overall value. In the end, it appeared the team was stuck with the 7th overall, and in this scenario, I think the better, wiser, safer selection was Watt, not Smith.

As for teams converting players to positions that they were not projected to be drafting for (in the case of Clay), that is the drafting team's perogative. It does not mean the player cannot play the position they played in college. They may run a scheme that could use the player in a different position (like Miller for the Niners).

You believe my draft is not better than the Niners, and that is your right. However, in comparing my drafts to the Niners over the years, I think you would easily trade the guys we selected for the ones I earmarked in the past. We wouldn't have seen the mountain of second and third round disasters that have plagued our teams.

It appeared the Niners did not come away with either of their intended goals for the 7th overall, selecting Patrick Peterson, nor trading with Atlanta for a boatload of picks. Whether it be bad luck, or poor planning, it sure appeared the Niners were stuck with the 7th overall, and simply picked the best player on their board, based on need, which was Smith. That set the wheels in motion for a series of days where they did not get the best picks in their slots.

Oh, I read your post. I'm just not into hypotheticals. "What would have happened if the Niners hadn't traded up or down, etc."

The Niners draft is done and on the record. If you want to come up with a better scenario, then you have to compare it directly to what they did, not to what might have occurred if they hadn't done what they did. Likewise, the actual draft has occurred, so we don't need to conjecture about player rankings.

A direct comparison is helpful, IMHO.

Further, I'm not sure you want to get into comparisions of past drafts, or your analyses of past drafts. For one, we no longer have McGloughan doing the drafting, or Nolan/Singletary looking over his shoulder on draft day.

Same goes for Baalke/Singletary. Not sure Baalke would have gone with two OL in the first round, or with Mays in the second, last year without Singletary's input.

So the focus is just on this year's draft. Truly, the biggest lack is no NT. Although that is of some concern, I am nevertheless intrigued by the Baalke/Harbaugh leadership and the amount of thought and planning they had to have put into this draft.

They could not have missed the NT issue, so they must have something else in mind.

As for the first round scenario you present, rumor has it that they were prepared to trade back with Atlanta, but it fell through. Maybe they tried to trade up to get Peterson, but I've never heard anyone confirm that.

Neither of those two possibilities means that Aldon Smith wasn't or isn't worth the #7 pick, or that the Niner's didn't get most, if not all the players they'd targeted.

So, rather than a grade--which is really meaningless--I prefer to consider the Niner's draft this year as intriguing and filled with potential. I consider your hypothetical draft to be interesting, but it does not contain overwhelming evidence that the Niners should have gone a different way. IMHO.

I don't understand how you can say that you are not interested in hypotheticals, since the nature of this thread is hypothetical: "If you could redo one of the 49ers picks..."

If I am re-doing the draft, I would go down a different path...period. No trade for CK, and the keeping of the 12 picks.

As for the idea that the previous regimes were far inferior in drafting players compared to this one, I'm not so sure that will turn out to be the case. Wasn't Singletary supposed to be superior to Nolan? Wasn't Scot supposed to be superior to Nolan having last calls on the draft? Just because they are newer does not automatically mean they are better.

I think you are jumping the gun to assume that the team will be much improved on draft days now that Baalke is in charge, especially since he was the head of scouting for years, and second to Scot as of last year. I tend to be skeptical that his opinion was bypassed, and that he was ignored by the top guys. Instead, I tend to believe a lot of these guys on the roster were strongly encouraged to be drafted by Trent.

As for my presumption that the guys in charge were blindsided by the two scenarios that did not play out: Peterson at 7, or the mega-trade with Atlanta, this falls into the lap of responsibility for Baalke. He is running the show, and he could have made an attractive enough offer to get something done if they found either move to be critically important. Obviously, they were willing to deal to get CK.

You could make a more attractive offer, but there is a point of overpaying. Look at what happened to teams that overpayed for Rickey Williams, Herschel Walker, OJ, etc.

Plan C is usually far inferior to Plan A. Whether the team ends up paying a price in the end, or benefitting from the orginal plans going south, for the team to be stuck at 7 is problematic if they never planned to draft Aldon Smith at 7.

[i][b]but sometimes the alternative plan actually turns out for the better-as the saying goes, chance favors the prepared mind or as Berman would say-and that's why they play the game!
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[/i][/b]
Originally posted by btthepunk:
Originally posted by Ice49er:
I went back and watched some film on the entire 49ers draft picks.
I must admit I like what I saw from most of the picks except from one player
C. Culiver. At 1st I thought A. Smith was a bad pick because R. Quinn was still there but when watching the NFL Scouting Combine. I noticed that the 49ers DL coach and LB coach ran the DL drills at the Combine and for them to take Smith over Quinn l think they saw something they liked better in Smith.
As far as Culliver I did not see what they saw and so comes my point to redo this pick.
This is what I think the 49ers should have done instead of picking Culliver.

1 OLB A. Smith
2 QB C. Kaepernick
3 WR L. Hankerson
4 RB K. Hunter
5 OG D. Kilgore
6 CB C. Rucker
7 FB B. Miller
7 OG M. Person
7 CB C. Holcomb
Also with picking Hankerson I lost the 6th draft pick for C. Jones because I did not trade down with Jack. in the 3rd round.


You trying to give me nightmares man? at him speaking for the 49ers
In the third, instead of Chris Culliver Id have taken Allen Bailey. If Franklin and McDonald bolt our D-line will be awfully thin.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by WINiner:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I don't think you fully read my post. As stated in my post, this re-do of the Niners draft is based on the idea that a) the Niners did not trade up or down at number 7 (although I would have been happy to move picks for Peterson); and b) they did not make the trade for Kaepernick, nor for Kilgore. So, the added pick in the fourth and sixth round exists (12 selections overall), and hence, Cannon would have been my second fourth round pick.

As for selecting guys who went after the Niners' selection, that is always the main premise. You can't select guys who went before.

To my knowledge, I have never used the word, "reach", for Smith at 7. Since I projected him to go at 11, he was in the area I suspected a team might select him. I avoid saying "reach" because it makes people angry, frustrated, irrational. I use the term, "value", instead. You are right that some may say that Smith may have more value than Watt, but team boards are varied. What some team may value in Watt, may not be what they value in Smith. On my board, Smith does not have 7th overall value, since I do not believe he is near the 7th overall best player. Many teams would probably agree with me. At the same time, some would disagree and say that Smith does has 7th overall value. In the end, it appeared the team was stuck with the 7th overall, and in this scenario, I think the better, wiser, safer selection was Watt, not Smith.

As for teams converting players to positions that they were not projected to be drafting for (in the case of Clay), that is the drafting team's perogative. It does not mean the player cannot play the position they played in college. They may run a scheme that could use the player in a different position (like Miller for the Niners).

You believe my draft is not better than the Niners, and that is your right. However, in comparing my drafts to the Niners over the years, I think you would easily trade the guys we selected for the ones I earmarked in the past. We wouldn't have seen the mountain of second and third round disasters that have plagued our teams.

It appeared the Niners did not come away with either of their intended goals for the 7th overall, selecting Patrick Peterson, nor trading with Atlanta for a boatload of picks. Whether it be bad luck, or poor planning, it sure appeared the Niners were stuck with the 7th overall, and simply picked the best player on their board, based on need, which was Smith. That set the wheels in motion for a series of days where they did not get the best picks in their slots.

Oh, I read your post. I'm just not into hypotheticals. "What would have happened if the Niners hadn't traded up or down, etc."

The Niners draft is done and on the record. If you want to come up with a better scenario, then you have to compare it directly to what they did, not to what might have occurred if they hadn't done what they did. Likewise, the actual draft has occurred, so we don't need to conjecture about player rankings.

A direct comparison is helpful, IMHO.

Further, I'm not sure you want to get into comparisions of past drafts, or your analyses of past drafts. For one, we no longer have McGloughan doing the drafting, or Nolan/Singletary looking over his shoulder on draft day.

Same goes for Baalke/Singletary. Not sure Baalke would have gone with two OL in the first round, or with Mays in the second, last year without Singletary's input.

So the focus is just on this year's draft. Truly, the biggest lack is no NT. Although that is of some concern, I am nevertheless intrigued by the Baalke/Harbaugh leadership and the amount of thought and planning they had to have put into this draft.

They could not have missed the NT issue, so they must have something else in mind.

As for the first round scenario you present, rumor has it that they were prepared to trade back with Atlanta, but it fell through. Maybe they tried to trade up to get Peterson, but I've never heard anyone confirm that.

Neither of those two possibilities means that Aldon Smith wasn't or isn't worth the #7 pick, or that the Niner's didn't get most, if not all the players they'd targeted.

So, rather than a grade--which is really meaningless--I prefer to consider the Niner's draft this year as intriguing and filled with potential. I consider your hypothetical draft to be interesting, but it does not contain overwhelming evidence that the Niners should have gone a different way. IMHO.

I don't understand how you can say that you are not interested in hypotheticals, since the nature of this thread is hypothetical: "If you could redo one of the 49ers picks..."

If I am re-doing the draft, I would go down a different path...period. No trade for CK, and the keeping of the 12 picks.

As for the idea that the previous regimes were far inferior in drafting players compared to this one, I'm not so sure that will turn out to be the case. Wasn't Singletary supposed to be superior to Nolan? Wasn't Scot supposed to be superior to Nolan having last calls on the draft? Just because they are newer does not automatically mean they are better.

I think you are jumping the gun to assume that the team will be much improved on draft days now that Baalke is in charge, especially since he was the head of scouting for years, and second to Scot as of last year. I tend to be skeptical that his opinion was bypassed, and that he was ignored by the top guys. Instead, I tend to believe a lot of these guys on the roster were strongly encouraged to be drafted by Trent.

As for my presumption that the guys in charge were blindsided by the two scenarios that did not play out: Peterson at 7, or the mega-trade with Atlanta, this falls into the lap of responsibility for Baalke. He is running the show, and he could have made an attractive enough offer to get something done if they found either move to be critically important. Obviously, they were willing to deal to get CK.

Plan C is usually far inferior to Plan A. Whether the team ends up paying a price in the end, or benefitting from the orginal plans going south, for the team to be stuck at 7 is problematic if they never planned to draft Aldon Smith at 7.

You can not force a trade if your partner doesn't want to dance. Baalke has already said they were in discussions with Atlanta and Atlanta broke off talks. IMO it is pretty obvious that Cleavland talked to Atlanta and let them know that if Jones was going to be drafted, it would be at their spot and no other. Atlanta did what they felt they had to do to get their player.

You can make the deal as attractive as you like, but if Atlanta felt another team was going to get their guy at Cleavland's spot then it doesn't mater how attractive the deal Baalke offered was now does it?

What I am saying is that getting stuck at 7 with a player like Smith was not a good outcome for the team. It would have been better to be more proactive, and end up sending the 7th and 76th overall (and maybe a 5th or 6th rounder) to get Patrick Peterson at 4 or 5, or find a trade partner willing to move down. Or, if feeling that an outsider, like the Browns, might trump your deal, then you make a better deal (the Niners were in no danger of selecting Jones, and did not need the same package offered to the Browns).

In other words, the team was stuck with the number 7, and while this sometimes happens, I don't think it is a cause for celebration, or dismissal of a team optimizing their draft opportunity.

If you want something, get it done. The good teams of the NFL manipulate the draft to get the players they want, either moving up or down.

I think you over simplify manipulating the draft. If Cincy thought Green was the hands down best WR, and they had desperate need for a WR then why would they risk moving down from 4 to 7 when they know darn well that Cleavland is shopping the 6th pick? Also there was little to no chance AZ was going to allow a trade to 5 with fair compensation being a division rival.

I think your other mistake is assuming the team and other NFL teams valued Smith the same as you did. I think the Niners had their Hearts set on Miller, Peterson, and Smith and in that order.

Would you have been okay with the Niners giving a deal similar to what Atlanta gave Cleavland, to move up to 4 or 5 for Peterson?

I just think you over simplify and are overly critical of the teams inability to move in the 1st in what is obviously an abnormal draft in light of the labor situation.
I would have taken Chris Carter out of Fresno State. I saw all of his games last season, I attended Fresno State, so I may be a little biased.

He was the one player I really wanted the niners to take, since we need pass-rushers badly.

He may not be the ideal size for a 3-4 outside linebacker but that guy has a non-stop motor and is a play-maker. Theres a reason the Steelers took him...damn them!!
Originally posted by Ice49er:
I went back and watched some film on the entire 49ers draft picks.
I must admit I like what I saw from most of the picks except from one player
C. Culiver. At 1st I thought A. Smith was a bad pick because R. Quinn was still there but when watching the NFL Scouting Combine. I noticed that the 49ers DL coach and LB coach ran the DL drills at the Combine and for them to take Smith over Quinn l think they saw something they liked better in Smith.
As far as Culliver I did not see what they saw and so comes my point to redo this pick.
This is what I think the 49ers should have done instead of picking Culliver.

1 OLB A. Smith
2 QB C. Kaepernick
3 WR L. Hankerson
4 RB K. Hunter
5 OG D. Kilgore
6 CB C. Rucker
7 FB B. Miller
7 OG M. Person
7 CB C. Holcomb
Also with picking Hankerson I lost the 6th draft pick for C. Jones because I did not trade down with Jack. in the 3rd round.

I would have went with Prince Amukamara in the 1st, which in turn would have changed every single pick after Kaepernick.
  • mayo49
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[ Edited by mayo49 on May 28, 2011 at 8:16 AM ]
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
I would have taken Chris Carter out of Fresno State. I saw all of his games last season, I attended Fresno State, so I may be a little biased.

He was the one player I really wanted the niners to take, since we need pass-rushers badly.

He may not be the ideal size for a 3-4 outside linebacker but that guy has a non-stop motor and is a play-maker. Theres a reason the Steelers took him...damn them!!




I agree, I would have loved Carter but I believe he fell to the end of the fifth round. Wonder why he fell so far?
Originally posted by domingo:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
I would have taken Chris Carter out of Fresno State. I saw all of his games last season, I attended Fresno State, so I may be a little biased.

He was the one player I really wanted the niners to take, since we need pass-rushers badly.

He may not be the ideal size for a 3-4 outside linebacker but that guy has a non-stop motor and is a play-maker. Theres a reason the Steelers took him...damn them!!


I agree, I would have loved Carter but I believe he fell to the end of the fifth round. Wonder why he fell so far?

It was due to his size. He came out as a DE and now has to transition to a 3-4 OLB. He's still rather small for that position, but i think he's going to be good as a 3rd rusher. He has some good moves and is only going to get better. I just hope his talent isnt wasted there because they're already loaded at that position.
[ Edited by Bay2Bay9erAllday on May 29, 2011 at 12:23 AM ]
Now that the 49ers have added Aldon Smith I want them to keep adding potential pass rushers. Keeping adding them. I would have loved Carter.
  • mod
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Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by domingo:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
I would have taken Chris Carter out of Fresno State. I saw all of his games last season, I attended Fresno State, so I may be a little biased.

He was the one player I really wanted the niners to take, since we need pass-rushers badly.

He may not be the ideal size for a 3-4 outside linebacker but that guy has a non-stop motor and is a play-maker. Theres a reason the Steelers took him...damn them!!


I agree, I would have loved Carter but I believe he fell to the end of the fifth round. Wonder why he fell so far?

It was due to his size. He came out as a DE and now has to transition to a 3-4 OLB. He's still rather small for that position, but i think he's going to be good as a 3rd rusher. He has some good moves and is only going to get better. I just hope his talent isnt wasted their because they're already loaded at that position.

Hey whats the story on Logan Harrell? I went to the game against Cincinnati and that guy dominated, 4 sacks I believe. He's a little slow and a little small for NFL DL but he had some good moves. Is he still playin for the Bulldogs

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I'd re-do all of the Niners picks. These are the players I would have selected based on my board and team need (unfortunately excluding trades...I would have moved up to select Peterson..even if the cost was high). In having no trades, note the extra selection. I would have bypassed selecting a QB early.

Also, I strictly go by a no-cheating clause that does not look at how far a specific player mysteriously fell and selecting him in a later round before the real team selection.

1- JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Simply the best player on the board at the time. Since Franklin appears to be leaving, moving Soap to NT would necessitate a new DE to take over right away.

2- Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State
I think Hudson is the best OL in the entire draft, and is a starter at guard or center.

3- Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
The team needs a cover corner, and Brown has size and speed.

4- Jordan Todman, RB, UConn
I graded Todman just slightly over Hunter, who I really like as well. Both are great value picks at this point.

4- Marcus Cannon, G, TCU
Since the Niners have a second fourth rounder, this can be a luxury pick. I'd burn it on a risk. Cannon is a starter at guard some time in the future if he can survive cancer and regain his strength. Worth the risk in the fourth round.

5- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech
The Niners need QB depth, and while no one expects Taylor to be a future starter, he can be a solid backup if the starter goes down for a short time.

6- Charles Clay, FB, Tulsa
A FB who can run and catch the ball. Sounds like a WCO fullback to me.

6- Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond
Team needs a second corner in this draft, and Rogers had a terrific career and offseason.

6- Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi
Simply a backup, toilet clogger. Every 3-4 team needs one.

7- Ugo Chinasa, OLB, Oklahoma St
Was not drafted, but a quick, strong guy who could develop into a nice role player.

7- Jeron Johnson, S, Boise St
Also not drafted, but a talented, fast guy who has a ton of experience.

7- Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio St
Competition for Williams in the slot. Sanzenbacher was a seriously clutch WR for the Buckeyes.

Cheers.

Just for jollies, here's a side by side comparison of the Niner's picks and where they were picked against your picks and where they were actually taken:

#7. Aldon Smith OLB in the 1st round vs. #11. J.J. Watt DE Houston, 1st round

#36. C. Kaepernick QB in the 2nd round vs. #55. Rodney Hudson OL, 2nd rd., Chiefs

#80. C. Culliver CB in the 3rd round vs. #95. Curtis Brown CB, 3rd rd., Steelers

#115. Kendall Hunter RB in the 4th round vs. #183. Jordon Todman RB 6th rd. Chargers

#163. Daniel Kilgore G/C in the 5th round vs. #138. Marcus Cannon G., 5th rd., Patriots

#182. Ronald Johnson WR in the 6th round vs. #180. Tyrod Taylor QB, 5th rd, Ravens

#190. Colin Jones S in the 6th round vs. #174. Charles Clay TE Dolphins, 6th

#211. Bruce Miller FB/OLB in the 7th round vs. #206. Justin Rogers CB Bills, 7th

#239. Michael Person OL in the 7th round vs. #199. Jerrell Powe NT Chiefs 6th round

#250. Curtis Holcomb CB in the 7th round vs.

Not Drafted Ugo Chinisa OLB

Not Drafted Jeron Johnson S

Not Drafted Sanzenbacher WR

Your selection of Todman, over Hunter in the 4th, appears to be a very big reach, based on where Todman was actually selected, two rounds later.

Cannon over Kilgore would be impossible, since Cannon was gone some 25 picks earlier. If Kilgore is anywhere near equal talent-wise, then the Niner's got great value with his pick.

Taylor over Johnson is a moot point, since the Niners got Kaepernick much earlier, and he appears to be a QB prospect with a much higher ceiling than Taylor.

Charles Clay, drafted as a TE by Miami at #174, was already off the board when the Niners picked at both 182 and 190, then they got their version of a FB project at #211, Bruce Miller, a hard nosed guy with some experience at TE in high school. So Baalke got Ron Johnson AND Colin Jones before picking up a "converson to FB" guy in Miller. Seems like Baalke may have beaten you by two there.

CB Justin Rogers was selected at #206, the Niner's got Holcomb at #250. Again, this appears to be a great value pick for the Niners.

You picked up a NT in the 7th. This appears to be a glaring need for the Niners, whether they resign Franklin or not.

Your three undrafted guys are all, presumably, going to be available as UDFAs once the CBA/lockout is resolved.

So overall, you got a NT in the 7th, the Niner's got a pass rushing OLB in the first. You got a backup QB project in the 5th, the Niner's got a potential starting QB project in the early 2nd.

Your draft appears to have reached for a DE in the first. If Watts was the 7th best player available, why did he last til #11? Ironic that you had Aldon Smith ranked 11th on your last big board and called his selection at #7 a "reach," yet you would take Watts at #7, when he was actually taken in the draft at #11.

If the Niner's draft was really just a C, then yours would have to be a D. I think your grade for the Niner's is too harsh, and I'd give it a B. In comparison, I think your draft would rate a C or a C+. You address all the needs, including NT, but sacrifice some quality (Kaepernick vs. Taylor is just one example) which could hurt in the long run. IMHO.

I don't think throwing a bunch of UDFAs into the mix is fair, at this point, since who the Niners will bring in as UDFA is still an unknown. You pick up a WR, S, and OLB as UDFA. Who's to say the Niners don't pick up all those guys, plus a NT as UDFA?

I agree
Originally posted by modninerfan:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by domingo:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
I would have taken Chris Carter out of Fresno State. I saw all of his games last season, I attended Fresno State, so I may be a little biased.

He was the one player I really wanted the niners to take, since we need pass-rushers badly.

He may not be the ideal size for a 3-4 outside linebacker but that guy has a non-stop motor and is a play-maker. Theres a reason the Steelers took him...damn them!!


I agree, I would have loved Carter but I believe he fell to the end of the fifth round. Wonder why he fell so far?

It was due to his size. He came out as a DE and now has to transition to a 3-4 OLB. He's still rather small for that position, but i think he's going to be good as a 3rd rusher. He has some good moves and is only going to get better. I just hope his talent isnt wasted their because they're already loaded at that position.

Hey whats the story on Logan Harrell? I went to the game against Cincinnati and that guy dominated, 4 sacks I believe. He's a little slow and a little small for NFL DL but he had some good moves. Is he still playin for the Bulldogs


I think Harrell is going back for his senior year. That guy is a beast, as well. Although, as you mention he is kinda small for DL, so he will need to gain some weight. Hopefully, we take a good look at him next.year.
one thing is for sure, Niners have been taking a lot of supposed "boom or bust" picks lately...
Anthony Davis
Taylor Mays
Aldon Smith
Colin Kaepernick
nvm..
[ Edited by TheG0RE49er on May 31, 2011 at 12:06 PM ]