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OTC's 49ers Draft Grade by Pick

Originally posted by ChaunceyGardner:
If Kaepernick works out I will give it an A if not then a C.

This, with a good QB the 9ers would have been in the playoffs last year. Harbaugh should be able to develop him, he has done it everywhere else. Just hope he is still around when this Kaep is starting.
Originally posted by ttime:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:

49ers 2011 DRAFT CLASS:


1. DE/OLB Aldon Smith: A-
Apparently we couldn't trade down. Still would've preferred Amukamara, but in the end, the pick fills a need.

YOU PREFER A PLAYER WHO WAS DRAFTED FAR BELOW THAN PROJECTED? THAT TELLS ME WHERE YOUR ASSESSMENT IS

2. QB Colin Kaepernick: B
We got a guy who was going to be able to learn and adapt to any system he was drafted into. All-world physical tools and ability, but will need time. The project factor keeps this a B.

PROJECT FACTOR? WHAT ROOKIE QB ISN'T?


3. DB Chris Culliver: C
If he's playing safety, this is a B-minus, but with way other pressing needs, and everyone knowing the DL is more important, I can't give this any better than a C grade.

HE AUTOMATICALLY BECOMES THE FASTEST AND MOST AGILE DB ON THE TEAM AND HE HAS ONLY PLAYED THE POSITION FOR LESS THAN A YEAR. IF HE BECOMES THE SHUT DOWN DB WILL HE STILL BE RATED ONLY A C?

4. RB Kendall Hunter: A+
Best pick, easily. Terrific, star-caliber running back.

NO BREAK AWAY SPEED BUT A COMPLETE RB WHO WILL HELP MOVE THE CHAINS.

5. OL Daniel Kilgore: C-
Fills a need, but was it really necessary to trade up for this developmental player? Didn't like the value here.

AGAIN, HOW MANY OL ARE NOT DEVELOPMENTAL?

6. WR Ronald Johnson: A-
Now this was a good value. Strong slot receiver prospect. A guy who can get open and adds some depth to our WR corps. Should be ahead of Williams on the depth chart come this Fall.

LIKE HIM BUT HAVE NO IDEA OF HOW HE WILL RATE AGAINST A PLAYER WHO HAD LESS THAN 10 SNAPS LAST YEAR DUE TO INJURY.

6. S Colin Jones: B-
Special teamer with potential to develop into a fair back-up DB. Practice squad candidate.

IF ANYONE IS GONG TO PLAY IT WILL BE THIS KID. SF HAD ARGUABLY THE WORST STARTING SAFETIES IN THE LEAGUE.

7. LB Bruce Miller: A -- if he'll spend time at linebacker, D -- if he's wasted as a fullback.
Loved the pick. .... Until the rumors of him being converted to FB surfaced. You don't convert a conference Defensive Player of the Year and Bowl Game defensive MVP to fullback. That's idiotic.

DID YOU CONSIDER IF HE WAS NOT DRAFTED TO BE A FB, HE MAY NOT HAVE BEEN DRAFTED AT ALL? OR WOULD NEVER SEE THE FIELD? HE IS A REAL FOOTBALL PLAYER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THAT TRANSITION.

7. OL Mike Person: B
Strong developmental OL prospect who excelled at the lower level. Fine with the value here.
COMPETITION IS GOOD RIGHT?

7. CB Curtis Holcomb: C
Unlikely to make the team, but at 250th overall, you take a stab at a guy who could be at least a ST's contributor. Why is this a C? Because we ignored DL and passed on a terrific plugger/depth guy in Chris Neild who had the potential to make the team. Holcomb, unless he pulls a Philip Adams, may not even make the practice squad. AND HOW MUCH FILM HAVE YOU ACTUALLY SEEN OF HIM?


OVERALL GRADE: B

It is well understood at this point that we did not take a BPA strategy and did not pick for value. Instead we searched for one specific player, basically, and took him at the spot we saw fit. This is why it took very little time for us to get picks in, as it was already pre-determined the one guy we were taking.

I don't like this strategy, because essentially it strays from ones board. It's risky. We'll see if Baalke's risk is rewarded, but we won't know for at least a year or so how that's going.

I APPRECIATE YOUR PASSION AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME AND EFFORT THAT YOU PUT TOWARDS THIS DRAFT. YOU DID A GREAT JOB. AT THE SAME TIME, COULD YOU BE JUST A TAD BIT TOO CRITICAL GIVEN THAT NO ONE HAS SUITED UP YET? I'M GOING TO GIVE THEM AN "A" AND LET THEIR PLAY DETERMINE THE FINAL GRADE.

I can acknowledge that in grading these picks I purposely am going a little rougher on them than usual. We all have our opinions, and I'm sharing mine here. Look, even the best in the biz won't hit on every prospect, and it's very possible the players I've been saying we shouldn't have passed on turn out to be better pros than who we took. Maybe not, but again, as a passionate draft researcher I have strong opinions about many prospects and have perfectly valid arguments to support them.

At this point in time, this is how I feel about each player, but time will only tell of what this draft's overall grade will be from now. A "B" grade says it was a solid draft with good potential to really help us in the future.

This draft could turn out to be outstanding, but without going "too easy" or "too hard" on them, I feel a B is just right for a grade.

Hey, and think about it this way, by not being too indifferent about the picks and not getting my hopes up, it'll be even more satisfying if everyone pans out and exceeds expectations.
First of all it's dumb to rate a draft this early. That being said, yeah it looks like the niners reached for multiple players, yet they got players to fit their scheme alot like the patriots do. They hit on all the positions of need except NT. but most of all they selected guys that all have great upside and SPEED. Something we were severly lacking last year. So no grade from me but two big thumbs up.
i'm too seasoned to get my panties all wet or in a bunch just yet.



deal with it.
  • DVDA
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Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
i'm too seasoned to get my panties all wet or in a bunch just yet.



deal with it.

I would expect OTC to be more relaxed since these guys haven't even been through a practice yet. I'm not a huge fan of all the picks but I'm going to give them a chance before I judge them.
Originally posted by 23zack80:
Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
i'm too seasoned to get my panties all wet or in a bunch just yet.



deal with it.

I would expect OTC to be more relaxed since these guys haven't even been through a practice yet. I'm not a huge fan of all the picks but I'm going to give them a chance before I judge them.

Give OTC some slack and look at it with a little perspective. NFL.com and ESPN are doing the same thing right now. Putting grades to each teams drafts. Is OTC saying these are finite grades and he guarantee's these players will play according to their set grade? no. He's making a judgement call based on the research he put into it, based on media reports and film he's able to watch. He even admits that the team most likely had a different board than his and that to get a true grade, got to wait a few years. These are just the preliminary grades based on his opinion
How is he being "too hard" on any of these picks? His lowest is a C which means its just an average pick, nothing great but has flexibility to go up if worth or down if they bust. Every draft analyst does this. Kiper, Clayton, McShay. Why not have one of our very own (and 1 of the most knowledgable posters) give his opinion on this draft.

Thanks again OTC for all the great work you do.
Also thanks to AB (great work at draftwatchers), MadDog, GoFD, and Oldman9er!
  • dj43
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Originally posted by D-Money:
First of all it's dumb to rate a draft this early. That being said, yeah it looks like the niners reached for multiple players, yet they got players to fit their scheme alot like the patriots do. They hit on all the positions of need except NT. but most of all they selected guys that all have great upside and SPEED. Something we were severly lacking last year. So no grade from me but two big thumbs up.

Let's not overlook the addition of speed. One of the most overlooked weaknesses of the 49ers last season was the lack of team speed in all three areas of the team, especially on ST.
Harbaugh at Stanford got a bunch of kids who might not have been the most gifted athletically, but him and his staff coached them up and in 4 years took STANFORD to the Orange Bowl. This draft he got bonafide physical studs, and he is going to do the same with them what his staff did at stanford.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by monsterzero789:
Harbaugh at Stanford got a bunch of kids who might not have been the most gifted athletically, but him and his staff coached them up and in 4 years took STANFORD to the Orange Bowl. This draft he got bonafide physical studs, and he is going to do the same with them what his staff did at stanford.

I believe the next two years will clearly bring the importance of quality coaching back into focus for the 49ers. This franchise has been wandering in the wilderness of abysmal coaching for the last 8 years. Many players have under-achieved or not achieved much at all, only because of poor coaching.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by D-Money:
First of all it's dumb to rate a draft this early. That being said, yeah it looks like the niners reached for multiple players, yet they got players to fit their scheme alot like the patriots do. They hit on all the positions of need except NT. but most of all they selected guys that all have great upside and SPEED. Something we were severly lacking last year. So no grade from me but two big thumbs up.

Let's not overlook the addition of speed. One of the most overlooked weaknesses of the 49ers last season was the lack of team speed in all three areas of the team, especially on ST.

Believe me, it wasn't overlooked. Particularly by opponents all too often...
Originally posted by monsterzero789:
Harbaugh at Stanford got a bunch of kids who might not have been the most gifted athletically, but him and his staff coached them up and in 4 years took STANFORD to the Orange Bowl. This draft he got bonafide physical studs, and he is going to do the same with them what his staff did at stanford.

Yeah, as I was watching the draft it occurred to me that it seemed very Harbaugh-ish and basically reflected his M.O. at Stanford. He recruited smart, tough football players, often some who were overlooked by other schools, who would fit his system, and molded them into a team that could play his hard-nosed brand of football -- and very successfully. Not really so different than what Belichick does in New England with players other teams don't appreciate. Time will tell if Harbaugh is as successful at a pro level with the Niners.
Thanks for the writeup OTC. I think with Culliver we will go the Reggie Smith route. If he doesn't work out at CB he can go to FS. Gives him a better chance at making it and from what I have read/seen he will make a better FS. Still if we would have made him a FS right away tand if he didn't do well he would be gone. Probably easier to make it at CB on this team right now anyways. Basically giving him 2 shots to make it.

And to the posters above excellent points and I agree. Harbaugh is taking guys that love the game and most of them are great people as well. Might not be the most talented but like at Stanford they will know their role and the staff will get the most out of them. They are getting guys who fit the system, not selfish guys who are about themselves.

[ Edited by Gore_21 on May 1, 2011 at 16:43:10 ]
  • buck
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7. LB Bruce Miller: A -- if he'll spend time at linebacker, D -- if he's wasted as a fullback.
Loved the pick. .... Until the rumors of him being converted to FB surfaced. You don't convert a conference Defensive Player of the Year and Bowl Game defensive MVP to fullback. That's idiotic.

You might be right, but not necessarily.

It will be interesting to see what position he plays and how well he plays at that position.

Edit:

We have to remember that he is a seventh round pick. If he makes the team, even if only as a solid gunner on special teams, this will not have been a wasted pick.



[ Edited by buck on May 1, 2011 at 19:43:14 ]
If the lockout continues, it will hurt all these developmental players...guys they are trying to switch positions on. They may end up making all their contributions on special teams.