OTC's 49ers Draft Grade by Pick

Originally posted by Born49R:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by DynastyPart2:
If Aldon Smith turns into a 10+ sack, consistent QB pressure player and Colin starts at QB for this team in 2 or 3 years, I will then grade this draft as an A+.

I have been waiting for 6+ years for the 49ers to draft a legit pass rusher. Who would have thought it took an offensive minded coach (okay I know Baalke is supposedly the one making the decisions as the GM but you know Harbaugh has A LOT of input) to get us the pass rusher we have needed for so long.

Nolan nor Singletary; two supposed Defensive gurus, couldn't even get us a decent to solid pass rusher.

If Baalke can grab Nhamdi in FA, this defense is going to be really good!

If that happens, and Aldon Smith plays up to his billing, we will be a top 10 defense.

OTC, do you think that since there hasn't been any OTA's etc, that the coaches spent their free time watching film on the team and decided to pick just the players they wanted to plug into specific vacancies? By that, I mean they were satisfied with most of the roster and thought they had most of what they need.
I was surprised as well that we didn't target a NT.

I don't know if that's the case, but I'm sure they watched a lot of film on the team to get to know better what they were inheriting. I'm very surprised we passed on Neild at the end.

I can't imagine us being satisfied at NT with Jean-Francois if Franklin's gone.

OTC, Great breakdown man. Thanks for all the work this weekend during the draft. Tell AB great job at draftwatchers. Your grades are pretty much spot on. I'd give Culliver alittle higher grade. He's physically about the best DB in the draft. His potential is through the roof. With good coaching, I could see him being a steal.

And just like you, I heart Bruce Miller the LB. I don't see how they don't put him on defense. If they want to make him a 2-way player, fine. But his initial position should be LB, then work him into FB.

*Double Post*

[ Edited by Travisty13 on Apr 30, 2011 at 19:19:23 ]

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

It is well understood at this point that we did not take a BPA strategy and did not pick for value. Instead we searched for one specific player, basically, and took him at the spot we saw fit. This is why it took very little time for us to get picks in, as it was already pre-determined the one guy we were taking.

I don't like this strategy, because essentially it strays from ones board. It's risky. We'll see if Baalke's risk is rewarded, but we won't know for at least a year or so how that's going.

do u mean position-bpa or ovr-bpa? b/c ovr bpa is a tricky thing when i think about fairley and not-prince and not-ot.
i am one of the few guys who arent excited about the lions-draft at all...thats the 3rd year in a row that they didnt draft a quality OT, not even close. though they had a glaring hole in the 2ndary, they didnt do nothing there as well.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

It is well understood at this point that we did not take a BPA strategy and did not pick for value. Instead we searched for one specific player, basically, and took him at the spot we saw fit. This is why it took very little time for us to get picks in, as it was already pre-determined the one guy we were taking.

I don't like this strategy, because essentially it strays from ones board. It's risky. We'll see if Baalke's risk is rewarded, but we won't know for at least a year or so how that's going.

do u mean position-bpa or ovr-bpa? b/c ovr bpa is a tricky thing when i think about fairley and not-prince and not-ot.
i am one of the few guys who arent excited about the lions-draft at all...thats the 3rd year in a row that they didnt draft a quality OT, not even close. though they had a glaring hole in the 2ndary, they didnt do nothing there as well.

Either.

We did neither, as far as I'm concerned.

The unfortunate news is the 49ers are moving Bruce Miller to FB. Though they won't entirely rule out very limited time at DL/LB....

Also unfortunate news is Culliver is staying at CB. He will not play safety unless/until he performs so horrible there, he's forced to move. He's just not a great corner. With that pick though, the 49ers would have Clements, Spencer, Culliver, Brown, Adams, Curtis Holcomb, and Tramaine Brock going into camp at Corner, pending any more transactions.

At safety, I see us keeping at least Spillman and obviously Mays and Goldson if he signs the tender. Reggie Smith could be on the fringe with Colin Jones being brought in to compete.

[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 30, 2011 at 20:34:10 ]

Great work, OTC... We in the Zone are blessed to have you and Maddog to provide excellent analysis throughout the year.

As far as the grades are concerned, I'm in general agreement with the overall grade as well as the comment that the Niners clearly did not pick the BPA. This contrasted greatly with the approach of teams such as Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay. I'm not a big fan of the "pick only for need" not the "pick the guy you want, whenever" philosophy either. Hopefully, H & B will do a bit better next year.

All of that said, for Harbaugh's first draft, I think it was fairly solid, although a couple of picks were just blatant head-scratchers. Given the fact that the entire coaching staff had input and has been watching a ton of film now for 3 solid months, one would assume that they must of had some really good reasons for choosing the guys they did. I hope so.

Cheers guys!

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

49ers 2011 DRAFT CLASS:


1. DE/OLB Aldon Smith: A-
Apparently we couldn't trade down. Still would've preferred Amukamara, but in the end, the pick fills a need.

2. QB Colin Kaepernick: B
We got a guy who was going to be able to learn and adapt to any system he was drafted into. All-world physical tools and ability, but will need time. The project factor keeps this a B.

3. DB Chris Culliver: C
If he's playing safety, this is a B-minus, but with way other pressing needs, and everyone knowing the DL is more important, I can't give this any better than a C grade.

4. RB Kendall Hunter: A+
Best pick, easily. Terrific, star-caliber running back.

5. OL Daniel Kilgore: C-
Fills a need, but was it really necessary to trade up for this developmental player? Didn't like the value here.

6. WR Ronald Johnson: A-
Now this was a good value. Strong slot receiver prospect. A guy who can get open and adds some depth to our WR corps. Should be ahead of Williams on the depth chart come this Fall.

6. S Colin Jones: B-
Special teamer with potential to develop into a fair back-up DB. Practice squad candidate.

7. LB Bruce Miller: A -- if he'll spend time at linebacker, D -- if he's wasted as a fullback.
Loved the pick. .... Until the rumors of him being converted to FB surfaced. You don't convert a conference Defensive Player of the Year and Bowl Game defensive MVP to fullback. That's idiotic.

7. OL Mike Person: B
Strong developmental OL prospect who excelled at the lower level. Fine with the value here.

7. CB Curtis Holcomb: C
Unlikely to make the team, but at 250th overall, you take a stab at a guy who could be at least a ST's contributor. Why is this a C? Because we ignored DL and passed on a terrific plugger/depth guy in Chris Neild who had the potential to make the team. Holcomb, unless he pulls a Philip Adams, may not even make the practice squad.


OVERALL GRADE: B
It is well understood at this point that we did not take a BPA strategy and did not pick for value. Instead we searched for one specific player, basically, and took him at the spot we saw fit. This is why it took very little time for us to get picks in, as it was already pre-determined the one guy we were taking.

I don't like this strategy, because essentially it strays from ones board. It's risky. We'll see if Baalke's risk is rewarded, but we won't know for at least a year or so how that's going.

I thought this was a very average draft for us, based upon who was still on the board at the times we picked. I'm happy we traded up for Kaepernick, and I think Hunter and Johnson were good values in the rounds we got them, but other than that, we picked a lot of unpolished players, when there were more polished players available. We need a WCO fullback, and couldn't believe we kept passing on Stanley Havili, after Marecic was gone, even in the 7th round!

The only pick I really have reservations about is Culliver.

Hopefully he can turn into a solid #3 corner for us in the future.

Thanks for all the hard work - I really appreciate it.

I was jumpin' when we got Bruce Miller. He can bench press 520! I thought they'd groom him into the ILB with his speed, strength and hustle. It will be interesting.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

49ers 2011 DRAFT CLASS:


1. DE/OLB Aldon Smith: A-
Apparently we couldn't trade down. Still would've preferred Amukamara, but in the end, the pick fills a need.

2. QB Colin Kaepernick: B
We got a guy who was going to be able to learn and adapt to any system he was drafted into. All-world physical tools and ability, but will need time. The project factor keeps this a B.

3. DB Chris Culliver: C
If he's playing safety, this is a B-minus, but with way other pressing needs, and everyone knowing the DL is more important, I can't give this any better than a C grade.

4. RB Kendall Hunter: A+
Best pick, easily. Terrific, star-caliber running back.

5. OL Daniel Kilgore: C-
Fills a need, but was it really necessary to trade up for this developmental player? Didn't like the value here.

6. WR Ronald Johnson: A-
Now this was a good value. Strong slot receiver prospect. A guy who can get open and adds some depth to our WR corps. Should be ahead of Williams on the depth chart come this Fall.

6. S Colin Jones: B-
Special teamer with potential to develop into a fair back-up DB. Practice squad candidate.

7. LB Bruce Miller: A -- if he'll spend time at linebacker, D -- if he's wasted as a fullback.
Loved the pick. .... Until the rumors of him being converted to FB surfaced. You don't convert a conference Defensive Player of the Year and Bowl Game defensive MVP to fullback. That's idiotic.

7. OL Mike Person: B
Strong developmental OL prospect who excelled at the lower level. Fine with the value here.

7. CB Curtis Holcomb: C
Unlikely to make the team, but at 250th overall, you take a stab at a guy who could be at least a ST's contributor. Why is this a C? Because we ignored DL and passed on a terrific plugger/depth guy in Chris Neild who had the potential to make the team. Holcomb, unless he pulls a Philip Adams, may not even make the practice squad.


OVERALL GRADE: B

Once again, OTC shows why he's one of the top 4 draft specialists on the Zone (shared with MD, GoFD, and oldman9er), great job

I also agree with the B assessment. Just a few things I'd add:

- The F.O. and coaching staff clearly had a high grade on Smith, but couldn't get the trade with WAS to get picks and Smith. Of course, if we got the ATL trade instead, don't think we would've been worried about losing Smith...

- I see Smith, Kaepernick, Hunter, and Johnson as future players for this squad. Culliver, Miller, and Kilgore could be backup guys, but the rest look like practice squads.

- As much as I wanted Prince before the draft, the week before I got to watch some of his games (Texas & Holiday Bowl), and he started to remind me of one of our own CBs: Shawntae Spencer. He could be a good CB, but he could also be a product of a great defense in Nebraska.

- I wish we'd grabbed a starting CB and nose tackle, but not entirely worried. First, quite a few FA CBs (don't think we'll snag Nnadmi, but Marshall would be a good 2nd option, especially since he's a Cali kid who might wanna move back) and RJF showed to be getting better as a NT option (if not, Ian Williams is still available for UDFA)

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Born49R:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by DynastyPart2:
If Aldon Smith turns into a 10+ sack, consistent QB pressure player and Colin starts at QB for this team in 2 or 3 years, I will then grade this draft as an A+.

I have been waiting for 6+ years for the 49ers to draft a legit pass rusher. Who would have thought it took an offensive minded coach (okay I know Baalke is supposedly the one making the decisions as the GM but you know Harbaugh has A LOT of input) to get us the pass rusher we have needed for so long.

Nolan nor Singletary; two supposed Defensive gurus, couldn't even get us a decent to solid pass rusher.

If Baalke can grab Nhamdi in FA, this defense is going to be really good!

If that happens, and Aldon Smith plays up to his billing, we will be a top 10 defense.

OTC, do you think that since there hasn't been any OTA's etc, that the coaches spent their free time watching film on the team and decided to pick just the players they wanted to plug into specific vacancies? By that, I mean they were satisfied with most of the roster and thought they had most of what they need.
I was surprised as well that we didn't target a NT.

I don't know if that's the case, but I'm sure they watched a lot of film on the team to get to know better what they were inheriting. I'm very surprised we passed on Neild at the end.

I can't imagine us being satisfied at NT with Jean-Francois if Franklin's gone.

i see isaac moving inside if we dont pick up a fa... way stronger than ricky, wider. and de really hasnt panned out. while he is big and strong enough to handle double teams

[ Edited by fan49 on Apr 30, 2011 at 21:58:48 ]

Originally posted by fan49:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by Born49R:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by DynastyPart2:
If Aldon Smith turns into a 10+ sack, consistent QB pressure player and Colin starts at QB for this team in 2 or 3 years, I will then grade this draft as an A+.

I have been waiting for 6+ years for the 49ers to draft a legit pass rusher. Who would have thought it took an offensive minded coach (okay I know Baalke is supposedly the one making the decisions as the GM but you know Harbaugh has A LOT of input) to get us the pass rusher we have needed for so long.

Nolan nor Singletary; two supposed Defensive gurus, couldn't even get us a decent to solid pass rusher.

If Baalke can grab Nhamdi in FA, this defense is going to be really good!

If that happens, and Aldon Smith plays up to his billing, we will be a top 10 defense.

OTC, do you think that since there hasn't been any OTA's etc, that the coaches spent their free time watching film on the team and decided to pick just the players they wanted to plug into specific vacancies? By that, I mean they were satisfied with most of the roster and thought they had most of what they need.
I was surprised as well that we didn't target a NT.

I don't know if that's the case, but I'm sure they watched a lot of film on the team to get to know better what they were inheriting. I'm very surprised we passed on Neild at the end.

I can't imagine us being satisfied at NT with Jean-Francois if Franklin's gone.

i see isaac moving inside if we dont pick up a fa... way stronger than ricky, wider. and de really hasnt panned out. while he is big and strong enough to handle double teams

He wasn't that great at NT when he played their back around 07 and/or 08. He's been better as a DT. But it could happen if we were able to pull off signing Cullen Jenkins.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

49ers 2011 DRAFT CLASS:


1. DE/OLB Aldon Smith: A-
Apparently we couldn't trade down. Still would've preferred Amukamara, but in the end, the pick fills a need.

YOU PREFER A PLAYER WHO WAS DRAFTED FAR BELOW THAN PROJECTED? THAT TELLS ME WHERE YOUR ASSESSMENT IS

2. QB Colin Kaepernick: B
We got a guy who was going to be able to learn and adapt to any system he was drafted into. All-world physical tools and ability, but will need time. The project factor keeps this a B.

PROJECT FACTOR? WHAT ROOKIE QB ISN'T?

3. DB Chris Culliver: C
If he's playing safety, this is a B-minus, but with way other pressing needs, and everyone knowing the DL is more important, I can't give this any better than a C grade.

HE AUTOMATICALLY BECOMES THE FASTEST AND MOST AGILE DB ON THE TEAM AND HE HAS ONLY PLAYED THE POSITION FOR LESS THAN A YEAR. IF HE BECOMES THE SHUT DOWN DB WILL HE STILL BE RATED ONLY A C?

4. RB Kendall Hunter: A+
Best pick, easily. Terrific, star-caliber running back.

NO BREAK AWAY SPEED BUT A COMPLETE RB WHO WILL HELP MOVE THE CHAINS.

5. OL Daniel Kilgore: C-
Fills a need, but was it really necessary to trade up for this developmental player? Didn't like the value here.

AGAIN, HOW MANY OL ARE NOT DEVELOPMENTAL?

6. WR Ronald Johnson: A-
Now this was a good value. Strong slot receiver prospect. A guy who can get open and adds some depth to our WR corps. Should be ahead of Williams on the depth chart come this Fall.

LIKE HIM BUT HAVE NO IDEA OF HOW HE WILL RATE AGAINST A PLAYER WHO HAD LESS THAN 10 SNAPS LAST YEAR DUE TO INJURY.

6. S Colin Jones: B-
Special teamer with potential to develop into a fair back-up DB. Practice squad candidate.

IF ANYONE IS GONG TO PLAY IT WILL BE THIS KID. SF HAD ARGUABLY THE WORST STARTING SAFETIES IN THE LEAGUE.

7. LB Bruce Miller: A -- if he'll spend time at linebacker, D -- if he's wasted as a fullback.
Loved the pick. .... Until the rumors of him being converted to FB surfaced. You don't convert a conference Defensive Player of the Year and Bowl Game defensive MVP to fullback. That's idiotic.

DID YOU CONSIDER IF HE WAS NOT DRAFTED TO BE A FB, HE MAY NOT HAVE BEEN DRAFTED AT ALL? OR WOULD NEVER SEE THE FIELD? HE IS A REAL FOOTBALL PLAYER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE THAT TRANSITION.

7. OL Mike Person: B
Strong developmental OL prospect who excelled at the lower level. Fine with the value here.
COMPETITION IS GOOD RIGHT?

7. CB Curtis Holcomb: C
Unlikely to make the team, but at 250th overall, you take a stab at a guy who could be at least a ST's contributor. Why is this a C? Because we ignored DL and passed on a terrific plugger/depth guy in Chris Neild who had the potential to make the team. Holcomb, unless he pulls a Philip Adams, may not even make the practice squad. AND HOW MUCH FILM HAVE YOU ACTUALLY SEEN OF HIM?


OVERALL GRADE: B
It is well understood at this point that we did not take a BPA strategy and did not pick for value. Instead we searched for one specific player, basically, and took him at the spot we saw fit. This is why it took very little time for us to get picks in, as it was already pre-determined the one guy we were taking.

I don't like this strategy, because essentially it strays from ones board. It's risky. We'll see if Baalke's risk is rewarded, but we won't know for at least a year or so how that's going.

I APPRECIATE YOUR PASSION AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME AND EFFORT THAT YOU PUT TOWARDS THIS DRAFT. YOU DID A GREAT JOB. AT THE SAME TIME, COULD YOU BE JUST A TAD BIT TOO CRITICAL GIVEN THAT NO ONE HAS SUITED UP YET? I'M GOING TO GIVE THEM AN "A" AND LET THEIR PLAY DETERMINE THE FINAL GRADE.

Good job OTC...gotta say I don't ever remember you getting this emotional during a draft.

is a C as low of a grade there is? And what pick in the entire draft do you think would earn a D.