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OTC's Post-Combine Full 2011 Draft (3/3/11)

I figured I'd be easy on the eyes this time and keep my descriptions abbreviated. Saves me time too, so it's win-win for all of us. The draft seems mightily unpredictable at this point, with so many swirling speculations, but things will simmer down around draft time, after all the Pro Days and whatnot are completed. Let's cut to the chase and get to the draft -- here's how I believe (at this point) how things will shake out later this coming April.


1. Carolina - QB Cam Newton, Auburn
2. Denver - DE Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
3. Buffalo - CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
4. Cincinnati - QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

5. Arizona - OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
6. Cleveland - DL Nick Fairley, Auburn
7. San Francisco - Robert Quinn-DE/OLB-North Carolina, 6-4 265 4.70 - 49ers finally address the pass rush.

8. Tennessee Titans - DL Marcel Dareus, Alabama
9. Dallas Cowboys - CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
10. Washington Redskins - WR A.J. Green, Georgia
11. Houston Texans - DE Cameron Jordan, Cal
12. Minnesota Vikings - QB Ryan Mallet, Arkansas
13. Detroit Lions - OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
14. St. Louis Rams - WR Julio Jones, Alabama
15. Miami Dolphins - RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
16. Jacksonville Jaguars - DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
17. New England Patriots - DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
18. San Diego Chargers - DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
19. New York Giants - CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
21. Kansas City Chiefs - OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
22. Indianapolis Colts - DT Stephen Paea, Oregon St. +
23. Philadelphia Eagles - OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
24. New Orleans Saints - OT Nate Solder, Colorado
25. Seattle Seahawks - CB Aaron Williams, Texas
26. Baltimore Ravens - OLB Justin Houston, Georgia
27. Atlanta Falcons - TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
28. New England Patriots - OL Mike Pouncey, Florida
29. Chicago Bears - DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
30. New York Jets - NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St.
32. Green Bay Packers - RB Mikel LeShoure, Illinois

2nd round: Davon House-CB-New Mexico State, 6-0 200 4.50 - Borderline 1st round talent whose only real knock was his level of competition.

3rd round: Andy Dalton-QB-TCU, 6-2 215 4.82 - Leader, and a consistent winner with all the tools of a potential long-time starting QB, but not the imposing physical figure like Newton, Locker, Mallet, Gabbert, or Kaepernick.

4th round: Greg Romeus-DE-Pittsburgh, 6-4 264 4.79 - Yes, the injuries hurt him. But once healed, he'd prove to be a steal. We've been looking for a man to rush on the opposite end in passing situations because Smith can't do it alone, so I believe we could take Romeus if he's here.

4th round(2): Sione Fua-NT-Stanford, 6-2 308 5.28 - Not terribly athletic, but knows how to play with leverage and has the strength to man the NT position despite being somewhat undersized compared to most 3-4 NTs.

5th round: DeAndre Brown-WR-Southern Miss, 6-6 233 4.59 - Monstrous receiver and tremendous red-zone threat. Had a spectacular freshman year, but didn't replicate the numbers -- this is due largely to the broken leg he suffered in their bowl game that year. The kid could be a major steal, and having watched him play it's clear he's a skilled player who can contribute at the NFL level.

6th round: Noel Divine-RB-West Virginia, 5-8 179 4.34 - Speedy change of pace back we need. Value is volatile right now -- could go much higher purely based on his speed/elusiveness characteristics, but teams are concerned about his durability. Sproles, while similar in speed, is thicker than Divine is and he only went in the 4th, meaning Noel could fall to the 5th or lower.

6th round(2): Justin Boren-OG/OC-Ohio State, 6-3 309 5.40 - Potential developmental center prospect, and at worst provides guard depth.

7th round: Chris Neild-DL-West Virginia, 6-2 319 5.12 - High motor player who provides DL depth.

7th round(2): Alex Wujciak-ILB-Maryland, 6-3 250 4.79 - Special Teams/ILB depth.
Great job OTC. Been waiting for the new mock for awhile. Question though, where do you see Ponder going now after the combine? Do you think he will be there when we pick in the 2nd, and do you see Baalke/Harbaugh pulling the trigger to get him? Or do you see him going to one of the teams before us? If he's there when we pick, do you see him being the pick over House? Or do you see Dalton as their target QB? I also like the Deandre Brown pick. He's a huge WR, with alright speed (4.59), good strength, just needs to learn better route-running but I think he can be a great threat for us.
Very nice mock! The only picks that I'm not a fan of are your 2nd round pick, and RB Noel Divine.
Hate to be one of "those guys", but it's Devine... Noel Devine.

... and I really love this mock draft, OTC... bravo.
Like the two pass rusher picks. That issue has to be addressed once and for all.

A little skeptical of the 2nd and 3rd round picks. If Ponder was available in the second, I would jump on him at that point over waiting for Dalton in the third. Then again, finding a quality CB in the third would be harder than getting a good developmental QB.

Nice work!
I love it. But I still don't think Buffalo, Carolina, Cincy, AZ or Cleveland take Peterson. If he passes the Broncos, I believe he is ours.
nice overall, but Noel Devine will be gone before the 6th round
Thanks, as always, for your efforts.

Could you image the buzz if Newton goes first? Electric atmosphere, for sure, whenever he is selected.

Would love to hear your feedback toward Danny Watkins' Senior Bowl game performance. Loved hearing the positive reports from scouts, coaches, others during his practice week (he is a great story), and then was blown away by how poorly he played in the game after reviewing it through our DVR. Although we both know that the practices are held in much higher regard, I was astonished how bad he played after the first two series. I know he is transitioning from tackle, and was shifted around back and forth between LG and RG, but he may have graded lower than virtually every lineman I saw on the field that day. Let me know what you see.

Only one and a half months until the draft. Gonna be another crazy year.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Mar 3, 2011 at 8:18 AM ]
Love the Quinn pick. Also a big fan of the Romeus pick. What a lot of people forget is that he was a 1st round talent prior to last season and his injury hurt his stock.

I'm a little up in the air with the Davon House pick, maybe because I haven't watched him play. At that point, if we're looking corner, Johnny Patrick or Rock Carmichael would be a better selection, no?

Also, not a big fan of Devine. I just don't think he'd cut it in the pros. I'd much rather take Dion Lewis there.
It's very hard for me to see Cam #1 overall to Carolina who just invested a 2nd last year at QB.
SD, AB and SWAG's collective heads are going to explode, but I actually think Carolina will end up taking Gabbert #1 overall. Not that he's worthy (IMO), but the old adage holds true, that if you don't have a franchise QB and you THINK he could be one, you pull the trigger.

If Carolina had a 2nd rounder, and they liked Ponder a lot, I could see them going defense with the #1 overall pick then targeting Ponder...but they don't, so they have to make a franchise-defining move with this #1 overall. Keep in mind also, Jimmy Clausen was the previous coaching staff's mistake, not this one. IMO, they go in a new direction at QB, and that will be Gabbert.

~Once the CBA is agreed upon, Carolina signs veteran Billy Volek as the starter
~They trade Clausen for whatever they can get for him
~They draft Gabbert and groom him as the QB of the future
~St. Pierre and Null fight it out for the 3rd string QB spot

Other than that, I love your mock OTC.
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Mar 3, 2011 at 9:38 AM ]
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
SD, AB and SWAG's collective heads are going to explode, but I actually think Carolina will end up taking Gabbert #1 overall. Not that he's worthy (IMO), but the old adage holds true, that if you don't have a franchise QB and you THINK he could be one, you pull the trigger.

If Carolina had a 2nd rounder, and they liked Ponder a lot, I could see them going defense with the #1 overall pick then targeting Ponder...but they don't, so they have to make a franchise-defining move with this #1 overall. Keep in mind also, Jimmy Clausen was the previous coaching staff's mistake, not this one. IMO, they go in a new direction at QB, and that will be Gabbert.

~Once the CBA is agreed upon, Carolina signs veteran Billy Volek as the starter
~They trade Clausen for whatever they can get for him
~They draft Gabbert and groom him as the QB of the future
~St. Pierre and Null fight it out for the 3rd string QB spot

Other than that, I love your mock OTC.

Don't see it...just don't. The only time Gabberts name gained momentum was when Luck announced he was staying in school. He filled a void that Cam was unable to at that point. I'm really not a fan of any of these guys but I still think Cam is the first QB taken.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
SD, AB and SWAG's collective heads are going to explode, but I actually think Carolina will end up taking Gabbert #1 overall. Not that he's worthy (IMO), but the old adage holds true, that if you don't have a franchise QB and you THINK he could be one, you pull the trigger.

If Carolina had a 2nd rounder, and they liked Ponder a lot, I could see them going defense with the #1 overall pick then targeting Ponder...but they don't, so they have to make a franchise-defining move with this #1 overall. Keep in mind also, Jimmy Clausen was the previous coaching staff's mistake, not this one. IMO, they go in a new direction at QB, and that will be Gabbert.

~Once the CBA is agreed upon, Carolina signs veteran Billy Volek as the starter
~They trade Clausen for whatever they can get for him
~They draft Gabbert and groom him as the QB of the future
~St. Pierre and Null fight it out for the 3rd string QB spot

Other than that, I love your mock OTC.

Don't see it...just don't. The only time Gabberts name gained momentum was when Luck announced he was staying in school.
He filled a void that Cam was unable to at that point. I'm really not a fan of any of these guys but I still think Cam is the first QB taken.

I agree Jeff
Originally posted by NC49erfan82:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
SD, AB and SWAG's collective heads are going to explode, but I actually think Carolina will end up taking Gabbert #1 overall. Not that he's worthy (IMO), but the old adage holds true, that if you don't have a franchise QB and you THINK he could be one, you pull the trigger.

If Carolina had a 2nd rounder, and they liked Ponder a lot, I could see them going defense with the #1 overall pick then targeting Ponder...but they don't, so they have to make a franchise-defining move with this #1 overall. Keep in mind also, Jimmy Clausen was the previous coaching staff's mistake, not this one. IMO, they go in a new direction at QB, and that will be Gabbert.

~Once the CBA is agreed upon, Carolina signs veteran Billy Volek as the starter
~They trade Clausen for whatever they can get for him
~They draft Gabbert and groom him as the QB of the future
~St. Pierre and Null fight it out for the 3rd string QB spot

Other than that, I love your mock OTC.

Don't see it...just don't. The only time Gabberts name gained momentum was when Luck announced he was staying in school.
He filled a void that Cam was unable to at that point. I'm really not a fan of any of these guys but I still think Cam is the first QB taken.

I agree Jeff

I'm not saying he's worthy or it's a smart move AT ALL. But I think they have to go QB, and Cam (who has much more upside) has more question marks on and off the field. Not saying Cam is a bad guy or isn't going to be good, but Gabbert is the cleaner prospect...and that's HUGELY important when you're investing $60M+ in a young kid.

That was essentially the calculation Nolan made in drafting Smith over Rodgers (who came across as slightly arrogant to Nolan). Again, Nolan was WRONG in doing this, but I'm not making a value judgement here. I'm putting myself in the shoes of the Panthers who are about to invest a fortune and essentially hand the keys of the franchise over to someone who can barely drink.

So it's not just a football/QB potential decision; it's a business decision.
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
SD, AB and SWAG's collective heads are going to explode, but I actually think Carolina will end up taking Gabbert #1 overall. Not that he's worthy (IMO), but the old adage holds true, that if you don't have a franchise QB and you THINK he could be one, you pull the trigger.

If Carolina had a 2nd rounder, and they liked Ponder a lot, I could see them going defense with the #1 overall pick then targeting Ponder...but they don't, so they have to make a franchise-defining move with this #1 overall. Keep in mind also, Jimmy Clausen was the previous coaching staff's mistake, not this one. IMO, they go in a new direction at QB, and that will be Gabbert.

~Once the CBA is agreed upon, Carolina signs veteran Billy Volek as the starter
~They trade Clausen for whatever they can get for him
~They draft Gabbert and groom him as the QB of the future
~St. Pierre and Null fight it out for the 3rd string QB spot

Other than that, I love your mock OTC.

Don't see it...just don't. The only time Gabberts name gained momentum was when Luck announced he was staying in school. He filled a void that Cam was unable to at that point. I'm really not a fan of any of these guys but I still think Cam is the first QB taken.

But we all know what's gonna happen when he wow's people at his pro day. They gonna look at how his measurables at the combine were on par with Newton. And his stock will begin to rise. Plus they will hype up a qb duel at the top of the draft b/c it gets more attention than Suh vs Mccoy duel. I agree that so far Gabbert main bump came when Luck stayed in school. And his 2nd bump came from other qb's not looking so great at the combine while he didn't throw at all. Him risisng to the top of the draft really isn't that crazy. I agree he's not worth it, but his agents now how to ramp up the hype and how to position him.

Hey OTC can you explain that ATL pick. I know TG isn't getting any younger, but they really could use some help defensively, or even a number 2 wr than a tight end.
[ Edited by lamontb on Mar 3, 2011 at 10:15 AM ]