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Very good article about drafting QBs in 2nd Round

Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by rk1642:
Problem with the 2nd round qb's is that they all fall to that spot due to an obvious flaw that teams can detect. If a team thinks a qb is gonna be a franchise guy, they grab him no matter if he's a reach or not and thus the good ones are all taken in the 1st round. If a guy has what teams think is a somewhat serious flaw (too short, not a strong enough arm, etc) the dude will fall into the middle rounds. But the catch with these guys is one mans trash is anothers treasure. Take Montana or Brady: arms were too weak and they were slow of foot so they were passed over.

I really don't see a qb in this years draft thats a sure fire pro bowler. Lots of middle of the road qb's that I think may develope over time but will take 3 years or so to develope. With that in mind, I see us picking a qb with 1 of our two picks in the 4th round and trying to develpe that guy. If after a season he shows no promise, we can then go into 2012 draft and take a qb in the first round.

Picking a qb and hoping they develop is like going all in with a flush draw. It most likely aint gonna happen. Just look at...hell every draft ever. I see two very good qbs in this draft, Mallett and Newton. And i see a bunch of guys that self absorbed coaches think they can coach up.
I do this every year and im never wrong on qbs. Well i thought Matt Ryan was going to be good and not great. It started for me in 98 when i couldnt even believe there was a debate going on for the #1 pick. Clearly it was Manning and Leaf was trash. Not revisionist history thats what i thought at the time and i was right. Since then ive been 90% on qbs. Was wrong about Brian Brohm(thought he was pretty good) and Sanchez(thought he was a bum). Was 100% on Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, VY, Phillip Rivers(all the best qbs of their class).

Luck is good not great, will need a strong team around him to be successful.
Locker is complete garbage, i wouldnt want him on a practice squad
Newton could very well be the steal of the draft
Mallett is the best pure thrower of the last 5 years including Cutler and Stafford.

I dont know if I would agree with that, he has that funny release and if they try and correct it his arm could suffer pretty badly.

What in gods name are you talking about? Suffer badly? Did they need Tommy Johns? Im done with you, never speak to fools because people from a distance cant tell who is who.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I don't listen to Kiper, I never do. If you swap any QB during a teamwide sump it sparks the team, see the benching of Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. See the benching of VY for Kerry Collins.....VY is talented but he isn't a starting QB in this league. VY played in a playoff game his second season because of an overall weak year in the afc, both afc wildcards came from the AFC south division and snuck in behind the colts, oh wait the Titans were the 8th seed that year, oh and VY was the 26th ranked QB in the league that year. He was hardly the reason they got far.
To address Cutler you can be a good qb on a bad team, see denver broncos, once he got on a good team he helped get them to the NFC title game. I'd say he is good qb.

Cutlers team made the playoffs with Jake Plummer the year before he got there. Or did you forget that? And the bears made a Superbowl with Rex Grossman. So if you really think Cutler is great keep thinking it. Kerry Collins led them to 8 straight LOSSES, Vince gets put in the game and its the spark that led them to six straight wins?
And stop bring up dumb stats like PASSER rating. Do you even know how that is calculated? A huge part of it is yards per attempt. Tennessee runs a ball control offense where they rarely take shots down the field or even to the third level. Wait a minute, im completely wasting my time talking to you....clearly you dont have much football knowledge.

Hmmm if Plummer was so great why would they draft Cutler?? You just shot yourself in the foot. He clearly wasn't the reason they made it there because he was out of the league after that year. You doubly shot yourself in the foot because Grossman was the lone reason they lost the superbowl, and Orton never led them back. You are relying completely on the overall result of the team, you have to go back and look at what got them that far and VY wasn't the reason they were half decent. You definitely think too highly of yourself.
Again since you think it was purely YPA that ruined his rating, he threw 9 TDs and 17 INTSs and ran for 12 TDs. He clearly can't make the throws necessary to win games and trusts his feet more. Get over yourself, you don't know as much as you think you do.

And your stats are wrong btw, you cant even look up a website and copy correctly.
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs?

There were a lot of changes and a lot of their defense, which was out with injuries for the first 8 games, came back in the 2nd half of the season.
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously.

Seriously? Are you serous?

"HE" couldn't beat Virginia Tech? You mean Florida State didn't beat Virgina Tech?

But then again, did Ponder even play in that game? NOPE! So now you're not only blaming one player, QB or otherwise, for losing a game an entire team played, but that player DIDN'T EVEN PLAY IN THE GAME YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT????

Seriously?

And, even if Ponder did play in that game, when did we start evaluating players on one game?
Originally posted by skd420:
You cant make up statistics and claim them as facts.

Why not? You do!
Drafting a QB has high bust potential. However, when you hit, you put yourself in the position of making a serius playoff run.

Kind of like betting a horse running long odds.
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
I'm out of energy for the day, but I thought this was a good article I found on Rotoworld.

http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2011/01/the_lack_of_success_of_secondr.php


The (Lack of) Success of Second-Round QBs

Jimmy Clausen falls into a dubious category as a second-round quarterback.

It's been a decade since the second round of the NFL draft produced a franchise quarterback. Drew Brees, selected in 2001, is the last signal caller to fit the description.

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006


And it gets better as you go on.....

I think it's too early to judge Clausen and even Kolb. I don't think either has had near enough time to make a determination on. Kolb inparticuldar was stuck behind some pretty good guys McNabb(through most of his career anyway) and Vick. I also think that Jake Plummer was a good enough player to not be considerd on this list. Still it is very interesting stuff. I don't know if it's enough to warrent waiting until round three to take a QB or not, but it's worth thinking about. Ponder, Dalton in the second, Kap. Stanzi, or Devlin in the third.