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Very good article about drafting QBs in 2nd Round

  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Kolb and Stanton were brought in as backup options and if anything the last 10 years of 2nd round QBs have been butchered by the dolpins. Including Henne they have whiffed on 5 I repeat 5 QBs in the 2nd round. They reached and took players too early and put them in bad situations, they are horrible at spotting talent at QB.
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

You forgot to mention that Gabbert also threw for over 400 yds in that bowl game and his performance with the exception of the pick was superb.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.
Problem with the 2nd round qb's is that they all fall to that spot due to an obvious flaw that teams can detect. If a team thinks a qb is gonna be a franchise guy, they grab him no matter if he's a reach or not and thus the good ones are all taken in the 1st round. If a guy has what teams think is a somewhat serious flaw (too short, not a strong enough arm, etc) the dude will fall into the middle rounds. But the catch with these guys is one mans trash is anothers treasure. Take Montana or Brady: arms were too weak and they were slow of foot so they were passed over.

I really don't see a qb in this years draft thats a sure fire pro bowler. Lots of middle of the road qb's that I think may develope over time but will take 3 years or so to develope. With that in mind, I see us picking a qb with 1 of our two picks in the 4th round and trying to develpe that guy. If after a season he shows no promise, we can then go into 2012 draft and take a qb in the first round.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I had to read that again, did you just say Stanton and Gradkowski have proved they can play??? Now im sure you dont know sh!t

When grading QBs you dont compare them to other bums unless you want a bum qb. Im comparing them to other pro bowlers when they were in college. Sam Bradford is the best qb ive ever seen. Since Peyton at the very least. Everything about him from his footwork, to his athletic ability to his quick diagnoses of coverage to his incredibly accurate arm, everything said pro bowl qb. When grading qbs you dont look at numbers. You look at plays. I could spend all day trying to explain this to you but i dont have the time.

[ Edited by skd420 on Feb 8, 2011 at 09:49:12 ]
Originally posted by rk1642:
Problem with the 2nd round qb's is that they all fall to that spot due to an obvious flaw that teams can detect. If a team thinks a qb is gonna be a franchise guy, they grab him no matter if he's a reach or not and thus the good ones are all taken in the 1st round. If a guy has what teams think is a somewhat serious flaw (too short, not a strong enough arm, etc) the dude will fall into the middle rounds. But the catch with these guys is one mans trash is anothers treasure. Take Montana or Brady: arms were too weak and they were slow of foot so they were passed over.

I really don't see a qb in this years draft thats a sure fire pro bowler. Lots of middle of the road qb's that I think may develope over time but will take 3 years or so to develope. With that in mind, I see us picking a qb with 1 of our two picks in the 4th round and trying to develpe that guy. If after a season he shows no promise, we can then go into 2012 draft and take a qb in the first round.

Picking a qb and hoping they develop is like going all in with a flush draw. It most likely aint gonna happen. Just look at...hell every draft ever. I see two very good qbs in this draft, Mallett and Newton. And i see a bunch of guys that self absorbed coaches think they can coach up.
I do this every year and im never wrong on qbs. Well i thought Matt Ryan was going to be good and not great. It started for me in 98 when i couldnt even believe there was a debate going on for the #1 pick. Clearly it was Manning and Leaf was trash. Not revisionist history thats what i thought at the time and i was right. Since then ive been 90% on qbs. Was wrong about Brian Brohm(thought he was pretty good) and Sanchez(thought he was a bum). Was 100% on Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, VY, Phillip Rivers(all the best qbs of their class).

Luck is good not great, will need a strong team around him to be successful.
Locker is complete garbage, i wouldnt want him on a practice squad
Newton could very well be the steal of the draft
Mallett is the best pure thrower of the last 5 years including Cutler and Stafford.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

It's about 50-50 on first rounders... but the whole point of the OP is that it's not even close to 50-50 on QBs taken after the 1st round.
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I don't listen to Kiper, I never do. If you swap any QB during a team wide slump it sparks the team, see the benching of Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. See the benching of VY for Kerry Collins.....VY is talented but he isn't a starting QB in this league. VY played in a playoff game his second season because of an overall weak year in the afc, both afc wildcards came from the AFC south division and snuck in behind the colts, oh wait the Titans were the 8th seed that year, oh and VY was the 26th ranked QB in the league that year. He was hardly the reason they got far.
To address Cutler you can be a good qb on a bad team, see denver broncos, once he got on a good team he helped get them to the NFC title game. I'd say he is good qb.

[ Edited by sfout on Feb 8, 2011 at 10:01:11 ]
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

It's about 50-50 on first rounders... but the whole point of the OP is that it's not even close to 50-50 on QBs taken after the 1st round.

That is my point as well, you can infer from the statistics this year that one out of three round2-UDFA QBs make it as starting QBs/solid #2s or they fall off the earth after 1 contract. This is probably the worst QB class in terms of nfl readiness but it is purely a depth class, you have to weed out the good ones and groom them for the future. That is why it is so problematic for us.
If you add that 1/3 success rate of 2nd round + QBs to the 1/2 success rate of 1st rounders then you still barely walk away with a 40% overall chance of getting a QB worth keeping. So don't be surprised if we take 2 QBs this year or 1 this year and 1 next year.

[ Edited by sfout on Feb 8, 2011 at 10:00:30 ]
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I don't listen to Kiper, I never do. If you swap any QB during a teamwide sump it sparks the team, see the benching of Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. See the benching of VY for Kerry Collins.....VY is talented but he isn't a starting QB in this league. VY played in a playoff game his second season because of an overall weak year in the afc, both afc wildcards came from the AFC south division and snuck in behind the colts, oh wait the Titans were the 8th seed that year, oh and VY was the 26th ranked QB in the league that year. He was hardly the reason they got far.
To address Cutler you can be a good qb on a bad team, see denver broncos, once he got on a good team he helped get them to the NFC title game. I'd say he is good qb.

Cutlers team made the playoffs with Jake Plummer the year before he got there. Or did you forget that? And the bears made a Superbowl with Rex Grossman. So if you really think Cutler is great keep thinking it. Kerry Collins led them to 8 straight LOSSES, Vince gets put in the game and its the spark that led them to six straight wins?
And stop bring up dumb stats like PASSER rating. Do you even know how that is calculated? A huge part of it is yards per attempt. Tennessee runs a ball control offense where they rarely take shots down the field or even to the third level. Wait a minute, im completely wasting my time talking to you....clearly you dont have much football knowledge.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

It's about 50-50 on first rounders... but the whole point of the OP is that it's not even close to 50-50 on QBs taken after the 1st round.

That is my point as well, you can infer from the statistics this year that one out of three round2-UDFA QBs make it as starting QBs/solid #2s or they fall off the earth after 1 contract. This is probably the worst QB class in terms of nfl readiness but it is purely a depth class, you have to weed out the good ones and groom them for the future. That is why it is so problematic for us.
If you add that 1/3 success rate of 2nd round + QBs to the 1/2 success rate of 1st rounders then you still barely walk away with a 40% overall chance of getting a QB worth keeping. So don't be surprised if we take 2 QBs this year or 1 this year and 1 next year.

You cant make up statistics and claim them as facts. The worst qb class in terms of readiness(whatever the hell that means) was clearly 05 btw.

You cant name more than 3 good qbs to come outside of the first round in the last 10 years and you are going to tell me its a 33% chance? Im a math major fool. Take a statistics class.

[ Edited by skd420 on Feb 8, 2011 at 10:07:48 ]
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I don't listen to Kiper, I never do. If you swap any QB during a teamwide sump it sparks the team, see the benching of Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. See the benching of VY for Kerry Collins.....VY is talented but he isn't a starting QB in this league. VY played in a playoff game his second season because of an overall weak year in the afc, both afc wildcards came from the AFC south division and snuck in behind the colts, oh wait the Titans were the 8th seed that year, oh and VY was the 26th ranked QB in the league that year. He was hardly the reason they got far.
To address Cutler you can be a good qb on a bad team, see denver broncos, once he got on a good team he helped get them to the NFC title game. I'd say he is good qb.

Cutlers team made the playoffs with Jake Plummer the year before he got there. Or did you forget that? And the bears made a Superbowl with Rex Grossman. So if you really think Cutler is great keep thinking it. Kerry Collins led them to 8 straight LOSSES, Vince gets put in the game and its the spark that led them to six straight wins?
And stop bring up dumb stats like PASSER rating. Do you even know how that is calculated? A huge part of it is yards per attempt. Tennessee runs a ball control offense where they rarely take shots down the field or even to the third level. Wait a minute, im completely wasting my time talking to you....clearly you dont have much football knowledge.

Hmmm if Plummer was so great why would they draft Cutler?? You just shot yourself in the foot. He clearly wasn't the reason they made it there because he was out of the league after that year. You doubly shot yourself in the foot because Grossman was the lone reason they lost the superbowl, and Orton never led them back. You are relying completely on the overall result of the team, you have to go back and look at what got them that far and VY wasn't the reason they were half decent. You definitely think too highly of yourself.
Again since you think it was purely YPA that ruined his rating, he threw 9 TDs and 17 INTSs and ran for 12 TDs. He clearly can't make the throws necessary to win games and trusts his feet more. Get over yourself, you don't know as much as you think you do.

[ Edited by sfout on Feb 8, 2011 at 10:10:59 ]
  • sfout
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 6,197
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by rk1642:
Problem with the 2nd round qb's is that they all fall to that spot due to an obvious flaw that teams can detect. If a team thinks a qb is gonna be a franchise guy, they grab him no matter if he's a reach or not and thus the good ones are all taken in the 1st round. If a guy has what teams think is a somewhat serious flaw (too short, not a strong enough arm, etc) the dude will fall into the middle rounds. But the catch with these guys is one mans trash is anothers treasure. Take Montana or Brady: arms were too weak and they were slow of foot so they were passed over.

I really don't see a qb in this years draft thats a sure fire pro bowler. Lots of middle of the road qb's that I think may develope over time but will take 3 years or so to develope. With that in mind, I see us picking a qb with 1 of our two picks in the 4th round and trying to develpe that guy. If after a season he shows no promise, we can then go into 2012 draft and take a qb in the first round.

Picking a qb and hoping they develop is like going all in with a flush draw. It most likely aint gonna happen. Just look at...hell every draft ever. I see two very good qbs in this draft, Mallett and Newton. And i see a bunch of guys that self absorbed coaches think they can coach up.
I do this every year and im never wrong on qbs. Well i thought Matt Ryan was going to be good and not great. It started for me in 98 when i couldnt even believe there was a debate going on for the #1 pick. Clearly it was Manning and Leaf was trash. Not revisionist history thats what i thought at the time and i was right. Since then ive been 90% on qbs. Was wrong about Brian Brohm(thought he was pretty good) and Sanchez(thought he was a bum). Was 100% on Bradford, Freeman, Flacco, VY, Phillip Rivers(all the best qbs of their class).

Luck is good not great, will need a strong team around him to be successful.
Locker is complete garbage, i wouldnt want him on a practice squad
Newton could very well be the steal of the draft
Mallett is the best pure thrower of the last 5 years including Cutler and Stafford.

I dont know if I would agree with that, he has that funny release and if they try and correct it his arm could suffer pretty badly.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by skd420:
Some of you guys must be on drugs. Ponder? Are you f!^$&ing kidding me? He couldnt even beat Virginia Tech and you thing he can run an NFL team? Seriously. People said the same thing about Chad Henne, I live in Michigan and watched him for 4 years. Nothing about him said good player. But hes big and has an arm so he got a shot. When looking at QBs you have to start with the game footage. And what they did in clutch situations.
Gabbert? Did you see the pick he threw in the bowl game? Horrendous. No footwork or pocket awareness. Will be a terrible pro.
The guy who is going to be a good player in this draft class is Mallett. Everyone else has a legitimate concern, or no chance at all. The only other guy i would consider is Cam Newton, everyone else is trash. Cam is a project but he has an unlimited ceiling. Mallett as well, everyone else is severely limited by their lack of precision passing or physical abilities.

Drafting a QB outside of the first round and expecting them to be anything more than a backup is severely misguided.

13 of the leagues QBs who played this season and threw enough attempts to be in the top 31 in the league were all drafted in the 2nd round or later, I am not counting Tony Romo(who finished the season on IR), or players like Stanton or Gradkowski who have shown that they can play. You are the misguided one, even if you look closer and say who was on that list of 13 I would take my chances and hope that we get a Brett Farve, Hasselbeck, Hill, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Kitna, Garrard, Brees, Shaub, Cassel, or Brady and even then we get a serviceable guy in Henne. For real, you must not watch a lot of football if you think a first round QB is a guaranteed win, we'll examine the past 6 years of 1st rounders
2010
#1-Bradford, a bit of a game manager, but a stud.
#25-Tebow, jury is out
1/2
2009:
#1overall- Stafford, jury is still out, injury prone?
#5-Sanchez, still one hell of a game manager in his second year
#17-Freeman, comeback kid, mr clutch.
Overall at the moment I have to give it a 2/3 because we don't know a lot of Stafford.
2008
#3-Ryan-Again mr. clutch
#18-Joe Flacco
2/2
So far these two are doing great
2007
#1-Jamarcus Russel, oh man the worst 40mil Al davis ever spent.
#22-Brady Quinn, definitely fizzled out.
0/2
2006
#3-Vince Young, immature and isn't the reason why his record is 30-15.
#10-Leinart, could be good if he wasn't so immature
#11-Cutler, has looked great even in denver
1/3
2005
#1-Alex Smith, good but not good?
#24-Aaron Rodgers, backing up Farve and playing in a stable team showed why he is the best qb of the 2, just won superbowl mvp
1/2
Your overall success rate is 7/14 go on to do well
Wow what an astounding chance we have, because our most recent experience of picking between Smith and Rodgers was just the same, a crap shoot and we came out on the losing end.

You just said Young isnt the reason they went 30-15? What about when they lost 8 games to start the season, put Young in and they almost made the playoffs? Vince played in playoff games by his second season, Cutler played his first career playoff game this year and you think hes great? Please. And Leinart is trash so stop with this if they can mature crap, hes not talented enough point blank. I said Brady Quinn was trash, just like im saying Blaine Gabbert is trash. Stop listening to Mel Kiper thinking he is right 24/7.

I don't listen to Kiper, I never do. If you swap any QB during a teamwide sump it sparks the team, see the benching of Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. See the benching of VY for Kerry Collins.....VY is talented but he isn't a starting QB in this league. VY played in a playoff game his second season because of an overall weak year in the afc, both afc wildcards came from the AFC south division and snuck in behind the colts, oh wait the Titans were the 8th seed that year, oh and VY was the 26th ranked QB in the league that year. He was hardly the reason they got far.
To address Cutler you can be a good qb on a bad team, see denver broncos, once he got on a good team he helped get them to the NFC title game. I'd say he is good qb.

Cutlers team made the playoffs with Jake Plummer the year before he got there. Or did you forget that? And the bears made a Superbowl with Rex Grossman. So if you really think Cutler is great keep thinking it. Kerry Collins led them to 8 straight LOSSES, Vince gets put in the game and its the spark that led them to six straight wins?
And stop bring up dumb stats like PASSER rating. Do you even know how that is calculated? A huge part of it is yards per attempt. Tennessee runs a ball control offense where they rarely take shots down the field or even to the third level. Wait a minute, im completely wasting my time talking to you....clearly you dont have much football knowledge.

Hmmm if Plummer was so great why would they draft Cutler?? You just shot yourself in the foot. He clearly wasn't the reason they made it there because he was out of the league after that year. You doubly shot yourself in the foot because Grossman was the lone reason they lost the superbowl, and Orton never led them back. You are relying completely on the overall result of the team, you have to go back and look at what got them that far and VY wasn't the reason they were half decent. You definitely think too highly of yourself.
Again since you think it was purely YPA that ruined his rating, he threw 9 TDs and 17 TDs and ran for 12 TDs. He clearly can't make the throws necessary to win games and trusts his feet more. Get over yourself, you don't know as much as you think you do.

LOL all the stuff you say comes straight from espn. And why did they draft cutler? Cuz Mike Shanahan never like Plummer. And Jake the Snake retired after they gave his starting job to Cutler. Stop trying to argue when you dont even know anything haha its laughable.
And you tried to bring in team success to make your qb look good not me. You said Cutler LED them to the NFC chip, I would say the 4th best scoring defense and the best special teams did cuz im not an idiot. "You doubly shot yourself in the foot because Grossman was the lone reason they lost the superbowl, and Orton never led them back." What does any of that have to do with Jay Cutler btw? I said the Bears made a Superbowl with Rex to prove the point that team success and individual quarterback greatness are not one in the same. Obviously you failed reading comprehension as well.