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TexasNiner's Final (I think) draft.

Ok. So here's the deal. I picked my first choice at each pick, as well as a backup choice for all except the last two picks. (They are both basically 7th rounders, and at that point it's just BPA and these are guys I like.) The way this draft looks like it will fall, we have a couple options in each round at key positions where BPA and positions of value seem to intersect. That way, the "he won't be there" arguement is less of an issue, because we have options.

So, I'd love it if the draft went down something like this:

Round Overall Pick

1 13 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma/Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers.
1 17 Jason Pierre-Paul OLB, South Florida/Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
2 49 Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss/Jahvid Best, RB, Cal
3 79 Javier Arenas, CB/KRAlabama/Perrish Cox, CB/KR, Oklahoma State
4 113 Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas/Ciron Black, OT/G, LSU
5 145 Myron Rolle, S FSU/Syd'quan Thompson, CB/S, Cal
6 182 Arthur Moats ,OLB, James Madison/ Roddrick Muckelroy, OLB Texas
6 206 John Conner, FB, Kentucky
7 224 Adam Ulatoski, OT, Texas


To answer a couple questions.

If the first round is falling that way, taking the elite pass rusher (JPP or Graham) first and then the best available OT, say Davis, second is also a way it could play out. I don't care. If we get either two of those four (or something similar if Okung or Bulaga somehow get involved) then I'll be thrilled. I don't care who is picked where.


Yes, I think it's entirely possible that either (or both), McCluster and/or Best will be there for our second round pick. Certainly at least one. If not, another playmaker, possible kick returner type would be fine. Jacoby Ford comes to mind if both are gone. Plus, this is kind of the "luxury pick" of the draft. So, if we went with Mount Cody or a first rounder at almost any position who slipped and was a great value, that would also be ok.

Also, I do think we might have to go earlier than the 5th for Rolle, and I'm fine with that. To take him in the 4th and go BPA or best OL available in the 5th is fine. One or more of the "4th round" guys at OL, may very well be there in the 5th, or some comprable values and I think Rolle is a gamer and worth it over a 4th/5th round lineman. I'm sure we can pick up someone at least similar in FA. I'd love to have Rolle on my team and would also give up a pick next year to grab him another way. But right now, he mostly projected as 5th rounder, so I'll hope we get lucky and can get him there.

[ Edited by TexasNiner on Mar 30, 2010 at 17:23:02 ]
Ok, over 100 views and not one comment? It's either so perfect that no comment is needed or it's so awful that it's not even worth a dis. Either way I'm impressed. I didn't think it was possible to nail it so perfectly in either direction.
well im one of the viewers and i love it except for the JPP pick i would perfer graham if we were going pass rusher also i wouldnt mind getting earl thomas or iupati
Yea I like it man. JPP @ 17 is whatever -- I personally like our d-line as is but it never hurts to add playmakers. Either him, Jerry Hughes, or Mike Iupati. I'd be very happy with this draft it fills all sorts of needs. McCluster would be a great pick also -- he gives us that ultimate weapon threat on ST/RB/WR/Wildcat (if we decide to run it).
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1 13 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
1 17 Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
2 49 Dexter McCluster, RB, Ole Miss
3 79 Perrish Cox, CB/KR, Oklahoma State
4 113 Mitch Petrus, G, Arkansas
5 145 Myron Rolle, S FSU

I would be happy with that, especially Cox in the third.
Would be sweet if Jahvid made it to our 2nd round pick
Nice mock. I would like Graham with the 2nd first rounder.
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Looks good to me, although I wonder about JPP in a 3-4. I think McCluster in the 2nd is a much better value than Spiller in the first.
I'm fine with your first round.

But I wouldn't waste a second round pick on McCluster. How many touches will he get a game? On special teams, maybe 5 punts, 3 kickoffs? Third down back, 5 touches? Wide receiver?

Here are guys that could be 3 down starters for us that should be around our 49th pick, courtesy of MadDog:
Morgan Burnett S
John Jerry G/OT
Nate Allen S
Jason Worilds DE/OLB
My Hope? Trent Williams or Buluga at 13
then with the second 1st rounder
Earl Thomas
Iupati
Graham
in that order of preference.
then if we can't get ET we'll go saftey in the 2nd or third.
Originally posted by mebemused:
I'm fine with your first round.

But I wouldn't waste a second round pick on McCluster. How many touches will he get a game? On special teams, maybe 5 punts, 3 kickoffs? Third down back, 5 touches? Wide receiver?

Here are guys that could be 3 down starters for us that should be around our 49th pick, courtesy of MadDog:
Morgan Burnett S
John Jerry G/OT
Nate Allen S
Jason Worilds DE/OLB


"Touches" is a completely overrated idea. If you don't think field position matters and you haven't noticed how beyond inept we are at creating it, then you don't know the Niners or football.

And not to bash you, but with most calling for Spiller in the first, McCluster in the second is a great value comparatively. And we NEED to address both our return game and our ability to have a playmaker who can change the way defenses play us. (Not to mention the actual plays the playmaker makes.)

If you don't think a Deshawn Jackson type is worth a second round pick, then you haven't been paying attention to the NFL. Even just the threat of such a player changes everything. And 5-10 times a year or more, one play they make changes a game.

I agree there are other great talents available. And some of them may be involved with more plays per game. But that doesn't necessarily mean they will impact the game more.

PS- Maddog is one guy. With one set of opinions. Which, by the way, no one is asking him to do professionally. So, regardless of his godlike status around here (and not that I don't respect his opinion or research), his word is not law by any means. So "Maddog said so" is not exactly much of an argument when many other professional scouts and talent evaluators don't feel the same.

Plus regardless or where ANYONE, be it Maddog, "Stone Hair" Kiper, or anyone else ranks players, it's more about who fits needs for a specific team and who will be able mentally and physically to succeed at the NFL level. And the only guy you mentioned who for me ranks close to McCluster at that level is Nate Allen, and there are other equal (or close) options at S later in the draft.

If we pass in McCluster given the chance, I don't think we find anyone close to comparable later.

But that's just my opinion. Which is worth exactly as much (or little) as Maddog's, Kiper's or yours. Only time will tell who really has what it takes in the NFL. But being afraid to take a player because he might "only" touch the ball 8-10 times a game as a ROOKIE is absurd, if those 8-10 touches or so,(KR/PR, 3rd down back, Wildcat) are one of the weakest spots on your team.
Originally posted by mebemused:
I'm fine with your first round.

But I wouldn't waste a second round pick on McCluster. How many touches will he get a game? On special teams, maybe 5 punts, 3 kickoffs? Third down back, 5 touches? Wide receiver?

Here are guys that could be 3 down starters for us that should be around our 49th pick, courtesy of MadDog:
Morgan Burnett S
John Jerry G/OT
Nate Allen S
Jason Worilds DE/OLB

Instead of "touches", I think "games won/lost" is a better criteria.

How many games did we lose as a a result of KR/PR? Off the top of my head, we lost a game in Seattle and in Houston because of an inability in the return game.

Since our strategy now, is to play games close, special teams and field position takes on an even larger importance.
Plus, our defense forces a lot of punts, much more than 3 or 4 a game, more like 6-7 punts a game, with 5-6 kickoff returns a game. If he was an above average return man, for us that would mean well over 100 yards a game.
Also, McCluster can be used for screens, carries and even in the slot.

If our defense forces a punt, it doesn't matter if we can't do anything with the ball after that. Our offense is poor when asked to drive 80 yards down the field. We NEED short field position with our new offensive strategy.
We can't rely on our defense to set up field position for us every time, we have to get some production from special teams.

Throwing another body in the secondary isn't going to make much difference for our win/loss record. None of those players you mention in the second round would start right away, if at all next year. McCluster would make an immediate impact.

Our players aren't getting any younger, we need to win now or rebuild yet again in 4-5 years.
Like this very much! and agree with getting a pass rusher and OT with our first round picks.

Would love it if Best was there in the 2nd but I doubt it.
Good mock, but not a fan of JPP as a 3-4 OLB. I prefer Graham if it was just between those two.
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Originally posted by mebemused:
I'm fine with your first round.

But I wouldn't waste a second round pick on McCluster. How many touches will he get a game? On special teams, maybe 5 punts, 3 kickoffs? Third down back, 5 touches? Wide receiver?

Here are guys that could be 3 down starters for us that should be around our 49th pick, courtesy of MadDog:
Morgan Burnett S
John Jerry G/OT
Nate Allen S
Jason Worilds DE/OLB


"Touches" is a completely overrated idea. If you don't think field position matters and you haven't noticed how beyond inept we are at creating it, then you don't know the Niners or football.

And not to bash you, but with most calling for Spiller in the first, McCluster in the second is a great value comparatively. And we NEED to address both our return game and our ability to have a playmaker who can change the way defenses play us. (Not to mention the actual plays the playmaker makes.)

If you don't think a Deshawn Jackson type is worth a second round pick, then you haven't been paying attention to the NFL. Even just the threat of such a player changes everything. And 5-10 times a year or more, one play they make changes a game.

I agree there are other great talents available. And some of them may be involved with more plays per game. But that doesn't necessarily mean they will impact the game more.

PS- Maddog is one guy. With one set of opinions. Which, by the way, no one is asking him to do professionally. So, regardless of his godlike status around here (and not that I don't respect his opinion or research), his word is not law by any means. So "Maddog said so" is not exactly much of an argument when many other professional scouts and talent evaluators don't feel the same.

Plus regardless or where ANYONE, be it Maddog, "Stone Hair" Kiper, or anyone else ranks players, it's more about who fits needs for a specific team and who will be able mentally and physically to succeed at the NFL level. And the only guy you mentioned who for me ranks close to McCluster at that level is Nate Allen, and there are other equal (or close) options at S later in the draft.

If we pass in McCluster given the chance, I don't think we find anyone close to comparable later.

But that's just my opinion. Which is worth exactly as much (or little) as Maddog's, Kiper's or yours. Only time will tell who really has what it takes in the NFL. But being afraid to take a player because he might "only" touch the ball 8-10 times a game as a ROOKIE is absurd, if those 8-10 touches or so,(KR/PR, 3rd down back, Wildcat) are one of the weakest spots on your team.

Really like the mock, though I don't think JPP will be there at 17. If he is there at 13, I hope Niners draft him there.

As for the touches argument - I think it's silly. 8-10 touches per game is quite a bit, so touches shouldn't be an issue when drafting someone like McCluster. Most WRs don't get more than 5 touches a game, but they are expected to make big plays. McCluster will be asked to make big momentum changing plays.