Big Boards Averages and Niners' Picks

Top 20

Player Avg Var Rank
Suh,N. 1 1 1
McCoy,G. 3 1 2
Bradford,S 3 3 3
Berry,E. 4 2 4
Okung,R 5 1 5
Bulaga,B 9 4 6
Spiller,CJ 9 12 7
Clausen,J 9 15 8
Bryant, D. 10 12 9
Morgan,D 10 7 10
Haden,J 11 12 11
Williams,T 11 18 12
McClain,R 13 7 13
Pierre-Paul,J 14 12 14
Davis,A 17 22 15
Iupati,M 19 8 16
Thomas,E 19 22 17
Williams,Dan 19 9 18
Mays,T 21 46 19
Graham,B 22 42 20

Originally posted by ColdFan:
Top 20

Player Avg Var Rank
Suh,N. 1 1 1
McCoy,G. 3 1 2
Bradford,S 3 3 3
Berry,E. 4 2 4
Okung,R 5 1 5
Bulaga,B 9 4 6
Spiller,CJ 9 12 7
Clausen,J 9 15 8
Bryant, D. 10 12 9
Morgan,D 10 7 10
Haden,J 11 12 11
Williams,T 11 18 12
McClain,R 13 7 13
Pierre-Paul,J 14 12 14
Davis,A 17 22 15
Iupati,M 19 8 16
Thomas,E 19 22 17
Williams,Dan 19 9 18
Mays,T 21 46 19
Graham,B 22 42 20

#13 Iupati
#17 Graham

Thanks for working out the stats! How about:

John Jerry G
Tony Washington OT
Cam Thomas DT
Linval Joseph DT
Marshall Newhouse G
Trindon Holliday WR

If we take McLain I will puke. No RT and no OLB...give me a break. That draft would suck.

Don't really like McLain with our 1st. We can probably land Spikes with our 2nd (or 3rd, even) now, if we wanted to go there.

Jerry,J - Pick 79 (average 85, range from 53-145).
Washington,T - Pick 172 (average 172, range from 77 to 255).
Thomas,C - Pick 82 (average 87, range from 54 to 126).
Joseph,L - Pick 146 (average 148, range from 97 to 197).
Newhouse,M - Pick 164 (average 163, range from 143-184).
Holliday,T - was only noted on 2 of the 6 Boards used for my survey;
was listed as #300 on one and the other said "no" to him when listed in
the players beyond #350. I only gave pick numbers to players who got
numbered spots on at least 3 of the 6 Boards used.

I don't necessarily agree with the rankings of Holliday and a bunch of other players,
but the study wasn't meant to show what I thought, but rather how the players
were ranked by a number of different sources and how divergent or similar those sources can be - and ultimately how subjective they really are. The draft bears a lot of resemblance to a beauty pageant judged by Al Davis and his colleagues.

In addition, I think the Big Boards are meant to be an overall ranking of BPA, whereas most mock drafts are based on the maker's belief of the team's needs in relation to the BPA. And, as I noted in a previous post, the views on BPA get really dissimilar for almost all of the players once you're past the first 40 or so names.

Historically, I believe MadDog's up there as being at least one of the best at an overall realistic ranking on his Big Board. However, in an attempt to be objective, I did not give any greater weight to his rankings - my apologies to MadDog. Cheers.

[ Edited by ColdFan on Mar 24, 2010 at 20:53:22 ]

Originally posted by ColdFan:
For curiosity, I did up a spreadsheet of 6 Big Boards freely available over the web, including MadDogs. All 6 were from March 7-22. I then calculated the average draft position for each of the 325 or so players and variances (indicating the size of the variation between the player's position on each of the Boards). The Big Boards I used were MadDog, CBS (NFL draftscout), Great Blue North, Scout.com, and Pigskin Paul.

What was the 6th board that you used? Or does CBS have one apart from its NFLDraftScout?

Very interesting work! The variances are really valuable. They really show how meaningless any mock draft must be, after the first round.

Where's Demaryius Thomas.

wow that alot of work

Sorry, the missing sixth Board was DraftBible.

D Thomas WR Georgia Tech was pick 38 (average 41 with range from 27 to 60).

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
ill be pissed as f**k if we draft mcclain

this is like my nightmare draft

Hey thanks Coldfan!
Jerry,J - Pick 79 (average 85, range from 53-145).
Washington,T - Pick 172 (average 172, range from 77 to 255).
Thomas,C - Pick 82 (average 87, range from 54 to 126).
Joseph,L - Pick 146 (average 148, range from 97 to 197).
Newhouse,M - Pick 164 (average 163, range from 143-184).

I had no idea that there was so much variability between the 6 value boards! I was trying to see how to upgrade the O line after the first round. About all I can say is that Marshall Newhouse will probably still be on the board at #145, our first pick in the sixth round.

If you did the same analysis, eliminating the three value boards that most deviated from MadDog's, I would imagine that the variation/player would lessen.

Thanks again.