Originally posted by jwhandloff:
I was listening to the Move the Sticks www.MovetheSticks.com podcast with former Ravens/Browns scout Daniel Jeremiah and he was going over scouting NFL right tackles. Jeremiah says that this is the breakdown of the rounds where the starting RTs in the league are drafted:
1st 9 2nd 5 3rd 7 4th 4 5th 2 6th 1 7th 2 UDFA 3
Jeremiah is quick to point out that over a third of the starting caliber right tackles are drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Based on the Jimmy Johnson draft trade chart these are the point breakdowns of our
draft picks assuming we lose the coin toss (compensatory picks not included):
1-13 (1150)
1-17 (950)
2-17 #49 (410)
3-15 #79 (195)
4-15 #112 (70)
5-14 #142 (35)
6-13 #173 (22.2)
7-17 #209 (7.8)
Even if we spend both a 3rd and a 4th on a RT, doubling our chances for success, we will still maintain both of our 1st round picks and our 2nd round pick to select valuable playmakers at running back, kick returner, cornerback, safety, and pass rushing OLB. Jeremiah also speaks to the behavior of NFL teams who will slide a RT who ends up being subpar to guard. This further compounds the chances that either or both of our selections could end up starting in the near future. A good example that I can come up with is that Adam Snyder plays a lot better at guard than at RT because he is just not talented enough to hold down the right side.
I would definitely recommend this podcast to fellow draft enthusiasts on this board. In the same episode about offensive tackles he lets you be a fly on the wall at a combine interview when he was working with Mike Singletary. He tells a great story about how Iron Mike asked a prospect a question that just killed this kid's interview. I suggest you check it out.
The problem with this analysis is some of those 3rd and 4th round guys aren't adequate enough to be starting. I use the same example you used. Adam Snyder.
Not saying you can't find adequate tackles in the 3rd or 4th. But I bet if you looked at the number on "valuable playmakers" you'll see it's easier to find one of them in the 3rd/4th than a more than adequate OT.
EDIT: but with that said. At this current time I'd be ok with trying to holdoff to grab Jason Fox in the 2nd.
[ Edited by krizay on Feb 20, 2010 at 12:49:49 ]