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MadDog Big 200 Board- Post Senior Bowl Edition

Originally posted by DaveWilcox:
Tebow at around 43 to the Jags is very generous.. If evaluated purely on QB potential he would be a 4th rounder or worse. Tebow was the worst QB in the Seniorbowl..

As a QB is just not very NFL ready. Can't take a snap, can't drop back, can't read defenses, long delivery, wobbly passes. Holds ball too low. He is also not very fast and has no wiggle making him ill-suited to running the wildcat.

If his name weren't Tebow and he were evaluated as just any other player, nobody would even be talking about him.

Pretty much
Originally posted by ninertico:
Thanks again, sir, for your solid contribution to the Zone.


Thanks for the kind thoughts.
Originally posted by Dblj55:
Great work MD!
I love the Irish. That being said, I'm a big Sam Young fan. What does he need to improve on to move up your big board? I think he brings great value as a middle round pick and he can become a very good starting RT in the NFL. What is your take?

He really seemed to struggle this week, which epitomized his entire senior season. Only a backup at the next level, and is simply too tall to kick in at guard.

Nice kid, but foot speed is his major problem. A huge disappointment as he came into ND so highly regarded.
Originally posted by DaveWilcox:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by DaveWilcox:
Tebow at around 43 to the Jags is very generous.. If evaluated purely on QB potential he would be a 4th rounder or worse. Tebow was the worst QB in the Seniorbowl..

As a QB is just not very NFL ready. Can't take a snap, can't drop back, can't read defenses, long delivery, wobbly passes. Holds ball too low. He is also not very fast and has no wiggle making him ill-suited to running the wildcat.

If his name weren't Tebow and he were evaluated as just any other player, nobody would even be talking about him.

I am with you on the generosity of Tebow going at 43. Here is how I see this pick going down. Nobody is going to draft the kid in the first round, and the Jags would be crucified for burning a first rounder on him.

However, they have to sell tickets, or will be moved to another city. Jacksonville averaged less than 40,000 people per game, and the one guy who can sell tickets is Tebow. They can get away with using their second rounder on him, even though it is still WAY too early.

I wouldn't touch him any time before the 5th round, but I am not the one seeing 40,000 empty seats every Sunday.

I understand the rationale of the Jags taking him.. It really would be a desperation move on their part..

If the Jags want to puts fans in the seats, they should put a winning team on the field.

Personally, I tried to unravel the logic in the Jags taking Tebow. He doesn't improve the team and I don't believe Jags fans will buy tickets to see him standing on the sidelines, wearing a baseball hat or holding a clipboard..

If Tebow is sersiously the last and best hope for saving the Jags franchise in Jacksonville. THe NFL should just award Tebow to them.

Can you say LA Jaguars??????????

No doubt it would be a move of desperation. And, since season tickets are not refundable, every sap who gets sucked into the hype better like watching him hold a clipboard. And, there will be tens of thousands who will be suckered in.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
As always, excellent work. I would probably add Lonyae Miller, RB from Fresno St., to the list somewhere as I think he showed enough size/speed/ability to warrant a 5th-6th round pick.

He was right outside my Big 200 Board coming into the week, and I thought I had moved him into the top 175. He'll be there next time around the block since he seemed to fare well at the Senior Bowl.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Is that a coincidence that Williams is at 13 and Iupati is at 17? Because that is ideal for us, IMO.

One thing I think people are overlooking with Iupati is his quickness. Players like Hutchinson and Mankins were picked high partly because they were powerful but also had some mobility.

Iupati is powerful too, but he has INCREDIBLE movement ability. In other words, while sharing their strength, he blows prospects like Hutchinson and Mankins out of the water with his agility. It is uncanny, perhaps unique, especially for a man of his size.

Is he worth gambling the farm for, because he has unique abilities? No, but 16/17 is more than a fair price.
In a league that continues to move even further towards a passing league, agility in the OL will be of increasingly value. In pass protection, a strong yet stiff player will struggle with all the blitz packages that defenses dial up. That is one reason Baas has struggled so much. With Iupati you get a very mobile player who is also strong - subtle but important difference.

When I look at what the Jets have done drafting Ferguson and Mangold very high, both of whom have excellent mobility, I see a wise GM and personnel department that understands how the game is now played. I hope Singletary/McCloughan have been paying attention. If he is available at either numbers, I would pick him.

Frankly, if his combine numbers are as good as I expect, he might go before 13.

The Jets made a conscious decision to throw a lot of their chips on the OL. Ferguson, Mangold, Faneca, and Woody are not cheap. However, look at how far they were able to go, even with inept QB play.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by SWAGG-ER:
SO let me get this straight MD.

You drop Mays because he struggled in practice but excelled in the game.

AND

You raise Iupati because he excelled in practice but struggled in the game.



I'm struggling to see the logic.

Mays had a mixed game yesterday. He missed a number of tackles, including two early on where he went for the hit and didn't wrap up. These are thing that can be corrected at the next level, but he has a bad habit of trying to make the big hit, and not complete the tackle.

He did make an interception, but I wouldn't call the play anything other than ordinary. He was sitting down in coverage, and the ball was poorly thrown. It was a play that was made, and it was a good play. I just didn't see anything special about the play.

But, I digress. The practice sessions are the key to the Senior Bowl week. And, Mays simply struggled being able to cover any of the wide receivers. The word is that he is really stiff in the hips, and is really a guy who should move to SS or OLB. I did not read one positive review.

As for Iupati, once again, the word is that he had a tremendous week at the Senior Bowl. People raved about his play, strength, mobility, etc. throughout the week. The game is simply not that valuable in the overall evaluation for the week. Surely, there are things that Iupati needs to work on, but he was one of the stars of the week.

In other words, it is much, much better to stink in the game than in the practice. I know this rund contrary to what we would normally think, but that is how teams grade players for the week.

I get what you're saying, and it coincides with what I saw. Iupati has a great upside, with some things he needs to work on. He does not appear to be the RT the Niners are looking for, so if they take him, they'll also need a RT prospect as well.

As for Mays, would he be an adequate replacement for M. Lewis at SS? Play him in the box most of the time, & use his speed to chase down plays. Lewis had concussion problems last year and may be done.

I wouldn't take Mays in the first, doesn't seem like good value. Even the mid second may be too high.

The knock on Lewis is his ability to play in coverage, and the complaint is legitimate. His liability in coverage is something the team has accepted, since he is so terrific around the LOS. However, the next time around the block, I think the team wants a more fluid SS who can adequately cover WR's and TE's in the secondary. Hence, the Niners move of Reggie Smith to this position.

As you have stated, I wouldn't select Mays with a second rounder. Third, at highest, to me.
I watched most but not all of the Senior Bowl. A couple of observations.

1. I really wish they would allow Juniors who have declared for the draft to play. I would be great to see them in this game. Otherwise all we really have is tape and the combine..

2. I watched Iupati really closely since I was already sold on him with our 1st pick #13.. He played very well as a LG, no so well as a RG.. But what I concluded was that he wasn't head and shoulders better than the next best guards, Asamoah, Johnson etc... I am not sure he is quite the superman we have made him out to be, although I am sure he'll make a very good NFL guard.

3. Brandon Graham is every bit the player you (MadDog) hyped him out to be. He was absolutely great and he would look great in Scarlet and Gold!!

So I could see our first four picks going down like this;

13 OT - Either Williams or Bulaga

16 OLB - Brandon Graham

49 Wr/KR - Jacoby Ford.

81 OG - Mike Johnson
MadDog,

Maybe you have posted this elsewhere but how do you rank this draft. It seems very deep for the first three rounds however the level of talent from the 1st to the 2nd seems very close.

It seems like the Niners would do very well if they traded their second for 2 and 3 like the reverse trade for Lawson.

How do you rank the following?

QB - Three strong Qb's- A
OG - After Lupati seems to fall off - B
OT - Lots of tackles but not the elite tackles, lots of RT - A-
RB - No backs seem worthy of top 15 pick B+
WR - ?
TE - ?

DE - ?
OLB - Graham looks like a stud
ILB - Seems very thin after spikes
S - Super Deep - A
SS - Also Very deep B+
CB - Haden seems to be the top prospect who else is close

KR - A+ for returners

Would love to hear your comments
Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
MadDog,

Maybe you have posted this elsewhere but how do you rank this draft. It seems very deep for the first three rounds however the level of talent from the 1st to the 2nd seems very close.

It seems like the Niners would do very well if they traded their second for 2 and 3 like the reverse trade for Lawson.

How do you rank the following?

QB - Three strong Qb's- A
OG - After Lupati seems to fall off - B
OT - Lots of tackles but not the elite tackles, lots of RT - A-
RB - No backs seem worthy of top 15 pick B+
WR - ?
TE - ?

DE - ?
OLB - Graham looks like a stud
ILB - Seems very thin after spikes
S - Super Deep - A
SS - Also Very deep B+
CB - Haden seems to be the top prospect who else is close

KR - A+ for returners

Would love to hear your comments

I think that people have overrated this draft coming into this season, although there are a lot of good players to be selected.

The strength of this draft will be at DT, where the top two players selected should be Suh and McCoy. Dunlap has all-world skill, and if he continues to gain weight, and moves inside (He's already about 290 pounds), this would add to the strength of the position. I wouldn't touch him, but scouts love his ability. Jared Odrick may have moved inside the top 20 picks at the Senior Bowl. This draft also has two big 3-4 NT's graded high in Williams and Cody. That is a rarity. Atkins, Neal, Price, and more, round out the position. Lots of starters.

I think the WR crop is pretty thin. After Bryant, teams will look at Benn and Tate. But, beyond that point, it is pretty much up in the air. Not many studs.

The draft is stocked with lightening fast smaller guys at RB: Spiller, McCluster, Best, but at the same time lacks many 215-220 pound stud, every down backs.

It is a weak draft for MLB's. After McClain, the talent drops off pretty severely. The next tier is Spikes and Weatherspoon. Just not much firepower.

Another off draft for FS. Berry is elite, but the next best is probably Allen, who is a mid-late second rounder. Mays has been a big disappointment in shoring up this unit, and I do not think the underclassmen will add much of a boost. I expect Thomas to move to CB.

Two good QB's at the top of the board, and then a ton of question marks later. McCoy will be a second rounder, and the same with Tebow, but a LOT of scouts are skeptical on both players. The rest of the boys look like third rounders or later.

I like the CB's in this draft, with Haden, Thomas, Wilson, Cox, Warren, McCourty, who I think are all starters. The draft also goes pretty deep with nickel corners in Arenas, Thompson, Ross, Ghee, Spievey, Franks, Jackson, etc. Very strong position.

So, this draft is a mixed bag.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Feb 2, 2010 at 8:14 AM ]
MD:
It seems that your 200 Big Board picks are for the draft followers. Is there is a Mad Dog Big Board? Is there a Mad Dog Niners Big Board? I have had the impression that Scotty has his board clustered with talent and if there is no one in the slot when they draft they look to trade out, like last year. Will you give us the Mad Dog personal Big Board and or the Niners Big Board?
As Always
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by ninertico:
Thanks again, sir, for your solid contribution to the Zone.


Thanks for the kind thoughts.

For a Niner Bro, anytime!

I have been browsing the forums for points of view from our different draftnik buddies to gather a consensus on positions like you mentioned above. Given our needs at ROT, RS, and secondary and the BPA philosophy, it seems the prudent thing to do is land that quality ROT in the first no matter what with some solid ROT prospects in our range like Williams and Bulaga and Iupati.

I can't remember, but would you rather draft Iupati than Williams or Bulaga if all three were available when we picked? Also given Dan Williams' performance, do you think he will get passed Miami?

Spiller, Iupait, T. Williams, B. Bulaga, D. Williams, E. Thomas, JPP, and Graham seem like legit prospects who could start immediately or at least work their way into the rotation.

I guess MD, I look at that list and I see Four immediate starters in Spiller (RS starter), T. Williams (ROT starter), Bulaga (ROT Starter), and Iupati (LOG Starter). The others would have to compete and win the job at NT, S, and DE/OLB.

Also, CB seems like a great find in the second because of the late first round talent creeping up from the second. However, do you think they will drop a bit because of the 2nd tier talent from the twenties through the bottom of the second? I think so.

Also, it looks like we could land a very good SS, OL or DE/OLB prospect in the third for very good value.

Anyway, the pieces are coming out to this mysterious draft puzzle.

Any other thoughts?
MD, excellent work, as always. Thanks for being willing to put yourself out there with these rankings. And thanks for not following through with your premature retirement announcement, made last spring, in producing this ranking.

BTW, what do you make of self-proclaimed, pro-BPA McCloughan selecting only 1 OT (Staley), out of 42 total Niner picks, beginning with the 2005 draft? (Snyder was an OT in college, but admittedly rafted as an NFL OG). Hard to believe that a NFL OT prospect was the BPA for the Niners only 2-3% of the time that they were on the clock.
My major disagreements are these (and that's at this point in time -- Pre-Combine).

Too High:
60 Thaddeus Gibson* Ohio State OLB
70 Taylor Price Ohio WR
140 Joe Webb UAB WR

Too Low:
62 Patrick Robinson Florida State CB
68 Morgan Burnett* Georgia Tech S - Marginally though on this one.
142 Rennie Curran* Georgia LB - Marginal again.
161 Torrell Troup Central Florida DT


Spelling notes: For grammar perfectionists.

Muckelroy is missing the letter "c." (I fixed it for my post).
193 Ted Larson NC State C should be Larsen.

So if you couldn't tell, I did read the entire list. Good work, MD. I haven't had the time and don't think I'm going to ever find the time to make a big-board this year, so sadly, we won't be able to compare this time around. I am going to put my focus on a personal, position-by-position ranking set from the entire class, however.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Feb 3, 2010 at 2:30 PM ]