What's wrong with the San Francisco 49ers run defense? That's not something we're accustomed to wondering. The 49ers normally have one of the best defenses in the NFL and one of the best, if not the best, run defense.
And this season hasn't been any different. The San Francisco defense has been dominant at times. There have been games in which their opponent has been able to do barely anything on the ground. Now some of the statistics could be a bit skewed because the 49ers have had such big leads in most of their games, forcing opposing offenses to abandon the run game and play catch-up.
The 49ers' run defense has had some recent games that weren't too bad either. Consider these games since the bye:
Jaguars: 59 yards rushing
Buccaneers: 66 yards rushing
Seahawks: 88 yards rushing
Eagles: 46 yards rushing
Seahawks: 70 yards rushing
And some of those teams have been good at running the ball this season. But none of them is quite as dynamic as the one coming to Santa Clara on Christmas night—the Baltimore Ravens. They have the top-ranked rushing offense in the league. The 49ers run defense is ranked 18th. So this could be one area the Ravens have the advantage.
Having the 18th-best run defense isn't terrible, but it's not good, either. And it's certainly not up to the standards that have been set for the 49ers. There have been three especially bad games:
Browns: 160 yards rushing
Bengals: 134 yards rushing
Cardinals: 234 yards rushing
The first two games, Cleveland and Cincinnati, were both losses. Last week's Arizona game was a win, but it was the worst performance of the season for the run defense. And it's no coincidence that in all three of those games, the 49ers tackling was horrible. Against the Cardinals, the 49ers defense missed 16 tackles.
The run defense has some fans of the team concerned and has some fans of other teams seeing a weak point in the 49ers' dominance. Jordan, a Ravens fan, expects his team to blow out the 49ers, due to the San Francisco run defense. He posted this on social media:
"49ers run defense is in for a rude awakening come Monday night. We might just blow them out tbh."
I, for one, actually think the 49ers run defense will bounce back. But they will have to do it without one of their best run-stoppers, Arik Armstead, who has already been declared out for Monday's game. Linebacker Oren Burks will also miss the game. Burks has played great for the defense this season, so he's another big loss.
Why has the 49ers run defense struggled at times this season? Here are a few possible reasons why:
Less quality depth
Without Armstead and Javon Hargrave, the run defense struggled against Arizona. This is especially true of Armstead, who's very good against the run.
Look at the defense overall. They've lost players to injury like Armstead, Hargrave, Burks, and Talanoa Hufanga. And they've lost some players to free agency over the years, like Jimmie Ward, D.J. Jones, Samson Ebukam, and Charles Omenihu.
And who could forget about the trading of DeForest Buckner?
The point is, when you lose as many players of that quality (and there have been others), your depth will be negatively affected. And then when you lose players like Armstead and Hargrave, the backups are a bigger step down than what it's been in the past.
Less rest than opponents
The three games I mentioned, in which the 49ers gave up the most yards rushing this season, all had one thing in common. All three of those opponents were coming off a bye when they played the 49ers. And it looked like it, as all three of those teams looked fresher than the 49ers. at times, all three of those teams even looked more physical than the 49ers did. That's not something we see very often.
When you're not as rested, you're not as sharp and you make more mistakes, like missed tackles. I realize every NFL defense is tired this time of year, but the 49ers play a more physical style than most, which would seem to take more out of them.
But the team has a chance to win a first-round bye by getting the number one seed in the NFC. If that happens, it will be a huge advantage for the 49ers. The top seed in each conference is the only team that gets a first-round bye. And the top seed only plays two postseason games, instead of three, before advancing to the Super Bowl.
So win two of the next three games, and then you can rest. Then if you can win the two postseason games in the NFC, you'll have another break before the Super Bowl. This is why it's so important for the 49ers to get the top seed.
A quicker-scoring offense
The 49ers offense has scored more quickly this season than in seasons past. And while that's been exciting, it also means less rest for the defense. Now, it's a problem they'll have to learn to live with. You're not going to ask the offense to slow down and be less effective. But it is a possible reason why the defense has looked tired, at times. Still, I think we'll take it. Especially after so many years of average offense.
Different offensive gameplans
This season, there have been teams approaching the 49ers defense differently than in the past. Some, like the Los Angeles Rams in week two, have gone to a quick game to get the ball out before the pass rush can get home. And although this isn't an attack on the run defense, it has shown to be successful in keeping the chains moving, which keeps the 49ers defense on the field, which goes back to the whole "less rest than opponents" point.
In the end, if the 49ers can correct their tackling issues, the run game will be more effective. If they are unable to tackle better, it could be a long day for the 49ers defense. And their fans.