2013 NBA Finals thread: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat

I think Manu will have a much better game with the home crowd behind him. I also don't think Miami's shooters will be as successful in SA.

according to a stat I heard on ESPN Radio this morning, the team that wins game 3 in the Finals format (2-3-2) wins the championship 91% of the time. One glaring exception was the Heat - Mavericks series.

Originally posted by valrod33:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Chalmers is my dude

Chalmers for Rubio...

Do it!

I dont like him that much

I think a lot of ppl see Chalmers in the post-season and think he's a pretty good player. He has had his moments in the post-season, but he makes a LOT of mistakes as well. During the regular season, he will frustrate you to no end. He keeps making same mistakes over and over. He finds new ways to make things more difficult than they have to be.

Yea, I love Rubio though. He's a lot of fun to watch. I hope he continues to improve. Chalmers will be a FA this summer, so Wolves can sign him without giving up anything. It will be interesting to see if Miami tries to sign him.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
What good is Chris Bosh if he can't knock down spot up 3's with the game on the line? That question should answer itself. Before Miami, he was arguably the best offensive big man in the league. When LeBron's on the team, LeBron is the system, and the opportunities key players are diminished, especially in a playoff setting. Someone like Bosh isn't getting consistent opportunities to do what he's best at, and the idea that he should be chastised for missing an open 3 is absurd.

This team is challenging for a repeat because they are tremendous on the defensive end when they want to be, but offensively, LeBron's game diminishes the offensive games of teammates unless they're a spot up shooter or a dish & dunk big. And then it becomes, "these two all-stars who are at an age where it would be really weird for them to have a severe decline are having a severe decline." Wade & Bosh are still tremendous players offensively, they're just marginalized.

You are right for the most part, although, right now (whether its injuries or not) D-Wade is not a "tremendous" offensive player. When Bron is out and D-Wade is in, he has still struggled. Its really obvious.

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
He could have been inside the 3pt line easily. He chose that spot. They were leaving him wide-open. I don't remember defenses purposely leaving Ray Allen or Garnett or Pierce wide open all game.

Also, I'm not saying Wade is declining. Wade is injured and I know he's still a top 5 player when he's healthy. But, he hasn't been healthy for the last 2 playoffs. Wade has averaged 21 ppg during the regular season and shot career high from the field...so I don't think playing alongside Lebron has diminished him whatsoever. If anything, he has been a better player. He's just having tough time staying healthy.

Bosh averaged 10+ boards in Toronto while playing next to Bargnani. Playing next to Lebron shouldn't have stopped him from rebounding. He averged 6.8 rpg in 2012-2013. In his rookie year, Bosh averaged 7.4


In game 1, Lebron shot 16 shots, so did Bosh and Wade had 15 shots...so it's not like when they are given opportunities - they're playing at a high level. Lebron has become a more efficient player too. He may be scoring 30 ppg in Cleveland, no question he is a much better scorer and player today.

Anyway, my point is...how can ppl criticize Lebron for passing the ball to a wide open Bosh or Wade? If they are truly big 3, he should be passing the ball to them when they are open. If he shoots 16 shots in a game, he is called passive. If this is truly a big 3, Lebron shouldn't have to win the games by himself. He has to do it because Wade is not healthy and Bosh can't handle the pressure and doesn't give 100% effort. Him struggling has little to do with Lebron...Bosh was great during the regular season.

I would imagine that he's instructed by Miami's staff to spot up behind the 3 point line rather than at 20 feet because of the increased point yield and floor spacing. Miami was also down by 4 at the time with a minute left in the game, so there's that as well. But him spotted up behind the 3 point line is a frequent occurrence now, and it's not the strength of his game, but it's what he needs to do around LeBron.

Both Wade & Bosh shot career highs from the field this season, and it doesn't translate to the playoffs. Reason being, when your system is based so much around an individual, that's not something that you're going to be able to adequately prepare for during the regular season, because it's just not something you see very often around the league. Chris Paul is the same way, although he's obviously not as good as LeBron. And just like LeBron's teams, they have a much harder time offensively during the playoffs. Watch the glaring difference between SA's offense and Miami's offense in terms of player & ball movement.

In Toronto, Bosh wasn't asked to trap pick & rolls 25 feet from the basket on defense, and wasn't asked to spot up behind the 3 point line on offense. Of course his rebounding numbers are down...he's much farther away from the basket than he used to be. Part of the reason that Miami struggles on the boards is that they extend themselves defensively on the PnR and they like to front the post a lot. When a jumper goes up and you're fronting the post, the offensive player has inside rebounding position. Don't get me wrong, I like what Miami does defensively, but rebounding is one of the things they sacrifice by playing the way that they do.

My point isn't about the quantity of looks that Bosh & Wade are getting, it's about the quality of looks that they're getting and how it matches up with what they do well.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by 49ersMyLife:
He could have been inside the 3pt line easily. He chose that spot. They were leaving him wide-open. I don't remember defenses purposely leaving Ray Allen or Garnett or Pierce wide open all game.

Also, I'm not saying Wade is declining. Wade is injured and I know he's still a top 5 player when he's healthy. But, he hasn't been healthy for the last 2 playoffs. Wade has averaged 21 ppg during the regular season and shot career high from the field...so I don't think playing alongside Lebron has diminished him whatsoever. If anything, he has been a better player. He's just having tough time staying healthy.

Bosh averaged 10+ boards in Toronto while playing next to Bargnani. Playing next to Lebron shouldn't have stopped him from rebounding. He averged 6.8 rpg in 2012-2013. In his rookie year, Bosh averaged 7.4


In game 1, Lebron shot 16 shots, so did Bosh and Wade had 15 shots...so it's not like when they are given opportunities - they're playing at a high level. Lebron has become a more efficient player too. He may be scoring 30 ppg in Cleveland, no question he is a much better scorer and player today.

Anyway, my point is...how can ppl criticize Lebron for passing the ball to a wide open Bosh or Wade? If they are truly big 3, he should be passing the ball to them when they are open. If he shoots 16 shots in a game, he is called passive. If this is truly a big 3, Lebron shouldn't have to win the games by himself. He has to do it because Wade is not healthy and Bosh can't handle the pressure and doesn't give 100% effort. Him struggling has little to do with Lebron...Bosh was great during the regular season.

I would imagine that he's instructed by Miami's staff to spot up behind the 3 point line rather than at 20 feet because of the increased point yield and floor spacing. Miami was also down by 4 at the time with a minute left in the game, so there's that as well. But him spotted up behind the 3 point line is a frequent occurrence now, and it's not the strength of his game, but it's what he needs to do around LeBron.

Both Wade & Bosh shot career highs from the field this season, and it doesn't translate to the playoffs. Reason being, when your system is based so much around an individual, that's not something that you're going to be able to adequately prepare for during the regular season, because it's just not something you see very often around the league. Chris Paul is the same way, although he's obviously not as good as LeBron. And just like LeBron's teams, they have a much harder time offensively during the playoffs. Watch the glaring difference between SA's offense and Miami's offense in terms of player & ball movement.

In Toronto, Bosh wasn't asked to trap pick & rolls 25 feet from the basket on defense, and wasn't asked to spot up behind the 3 point line on offense. Of course his rebounding numbers are down...he's much farther away from the basket than he used to be. Part of the reason that Miami struggles on the boards is that they extend themselves defensively on the PnR and they like to front the post a lot. When a jumper goes up and you're fronting the post, the offensive player has inside rebounding position. Don't get me wrong, I like what Miami does defensively, but rebounding is one of the things they sacrifice by playing the way that they do.

My point isn't about the quantity of looks that Bosh & Wade are getting, it's about the quality of looks that they're getting and how it matches up with what they do well.

LA, you know how we all felt Pop should use Leonard to shut down Wade and force Lebron to be a 50 point scorer...man, I'm still confused as to why he hasn't gone with that strategy. MIA heavily relies on Lebron to get his teammates open no different than SA relies on Tony and playcalling to get their shooters open. Chalmers killed us last game and the last way I want the Spurs losing is because the MIA others played well.

Still don't know why we are trying to keep Lebron from scoring. I don't really understand the gameplan. I would rather force Lebron to be a scorer and use most of his energy on offense. This will also make their defense weaker.

Black out

Originally posted by Joecool:
LA, you know how we all felt Pop should use Leonard to shut down Wade and force Lebron to be a 50 point scorer...man, I'm still confused as to why he hasn't gone with that strategy. MIA heavily relies on Lebron to get his teammates open no different than SA relies on Tony and playcalling to get their shooters open. Chalmers killed us last game and the last way I want the Spurs losing is because the MIA others played well.

Still don't know why we are trying to keep Lebron from scoring. I don't really understand the gameplan. I would rather force Lebron to be a scorer and use most of his energy on offense. This will also make their defense weaker.

So do you propose never double teaming Bron and not collapsing when he drives to the rim?

The best strategy is to try and make Bron a jump shooter, but in game two he was determined to not settle for jumpers. Even if you try to force him to shoot, if he is determined, its near impossible for him to not get fouled while driving to the rim or finding a shooter once the defense collapses.

Originally posted by sacniner:

Originally posted by Joecool:
LA, you know how we all felt Pop should use Leonard to shut down Wade and force Lebron to be a 50 point scorer...man, I'm still confused as to why he hasn't gone with that strategy. MIA heavily relies on Lebron to get his teammates open no different than SA relies on Tony and playcalling to get their shooters open. Chalmers killed us last game and the last way I want the Spurs losing is because the MIA others played well.

Still don't know why we are trying to keep Lebron from scoring. I don't really understand the gameplan. I would rather force Lebron to be a scorer and use most of his energy on offense. This will also make their defense weaker.

So do you propose never double teaming Bron and not collapsing when he drives to the rim?

The best strategy is to try and make Bron a jump shooter, but in game two he was determined to not settle for jumpers. Even if you try to force him to shoot, if he is determined, its near impossible for him to not get fouled while driving to the rim or finding a shooter once the defense collapses.

Lebron isn't wired like Kobe or Jordan. If you guard him with an above average defender (Green) and make him realize he will need to score 50 points, most likely, he will not be comfortable in that role. He plays best when he involves teammates. He's not a Westbrook, I want points, type of player. He will get his but if you force him to score 50, even 60 while strictly focusing on shutting the other 4...it's just not the way he's wired.

Also, you literally give him the jumper and sag off of him just enough to where he doesn't always think of backing it down. I don't think SA has a chance if any two of the other 4 get into a groove.

James being the screener was a great move, but I think whoever is guarding James should always go underneath to stop the drive and let James have the jumper. Make it so he has to hit 20 jumpers in order to keep his team in the game but DON'T leave any of the other players. To have the best chance vs an opponent, you have to make them uncomfortable and play a little outside their game. Lebron is most comfortable when he's making things happen for his teammates.

What are the series percentages for teams that win game 3 AND have the 3 consec games at home.

Originally posted by Joecool:
What are the series percentages for teams that win game 3 AND have the 3 consec games at home.

whew...

Since 1985, when the 2-3-2 style was implemented
1985: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
1988: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1990: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1991: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1992: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
1994: tied 1-1, HOU won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1998: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
2001: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
2003: tied 1-1, SA won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
2004: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check
2010: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
2011: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, lost series
2012: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check

To answer your question: 4 for 4

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Joecool:
What are the series percentages for teams that win game 3 AND have the 3 consec games at home.

whew...

Since 1985, when the 2-3-2 style was implemented
1985: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
1988: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1990: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1991: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1992: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
1994: tied 1-1, HOU won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1998: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
2001: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
2003: tied 1-1, SA won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
2004: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check
2010: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
2011: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, lost series
2012: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check

To answer your question: 4 for 4

Hope the screaming lady has her vocals ready.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Joecool:
What are the series percentages for teams that win game 3 AND have the 3 consec games at home.

whew...

Since 1985, when the 2-3-2 style was implemented
1985: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
1988: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1990: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1991: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1992: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
1994: tied 1-1, HOU won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1998: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
2001: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
2003: tied 1-1, SA won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
2004: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check
2010: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
2011: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, lost series
2012: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check

To answer your question: 4 for 4

Hope the screaming lady has her vocals ready.

The list does signify that tied 1-1, the road teams wins more often, FWIW

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by Joecool:
What are the series percentages for teams that win game 3 AND have the 3 consec games at home.

whew...

Since 1985, when the 2-3-2 style was implemented
1985: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
1988: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1990: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1991: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
1992: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
1994: tied 1-1, HOU won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
1998: tied 1-1, CHI won game 3 (home), won 2/3 home games, won series - Check
2001: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 3/3 road games, won series
2003: tied 1-1, SA won game 3 (road), won 2/3 road games, won series
2004: tied 1-1, DET won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check
2010: tied 1-1, LA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, won series
2011: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (road), won 1/3 road games, lost series
2012: tied 1-1, MIA won game 3 (home), won 3/3 home games, won series - Check

To answer your question: 4 for 4

Hope the screaming lady has her vocals ready.

The list does signify that tied 1-1, the road teams wins more often, FWIW

I think it also depends on when the road team won 1 of those 1st two. If they won game 2, then it makes sense the opponent came back strong for G3. If they won game 1, then I'll worry...a little.

Originally posted by Joecool:
Lebron isn't wired like Kobe or Jordan. If you guard him with an above average defender (Green) and make him realize he will need to score 50 points, most likely, he will not be comfortable in that role. He plays best when he involves teammates. He's not a Westbrook, I want points, type of player. He will get his but if you force him to score 50, even 60 while strictly focusing on shutting the other 4...it's just not the way he's wired.

Also, you literally give him the jumper and sag off of him just enough to where he doesn't always think of backing it down. I don't think SA has a chance if any two of the other 4 get into a groove.

James being the screener was a great move, but I think whoever is guarding James should always go underneath to stop the drive and let James have the jumper. Make it so he has to hit 20 jumpers in order to keep his team in the game but DON'T leave any of the other players. To have the best chance vs an opponent, you have to make them uncomfortable and play a little outside their game. Lebron is most comfortable when he's making things happen for his teammates.

I see what you are saying in regards of not cheating off others to help on Lebron, but you make it sound too easy to put a guy like Green on him and force him to make jumpers. If he doesn't settle for jumpers, he is big and athletic enough to still get a good shot. And if you aren't going to double him, he should be able to consisently get a quality shot. If he is getting good shots at the rim, he will beat you. It's not as easy as you think to force him to settle for jumpers. If it was, everyone would do that.

Once he does set a screen, and he has single coverage on him he will be able to get to the rim most of the time. He is already moving and he is too big and athletic most of the time. Game one they were doubling Bron, but SA's defense worked better cause the others on MIA were missing a lot of their shots. That is the key, whether the shooters on MIA are hitting or missing.