49ers select Nick Martin-LB-Oklahoma State with the 75th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft

Originally posted by scooterhd:
Your still missing a key point. These rankings are done without thought to scheme. Its a good overall consensus ranking and sort of an average overview of where the league might be on a player. But they are done as if players are interchangeable. 3-4 and 4-3 teams have very different opinion about lineman and edge rushers. Offensive coordinators have very different opinions on QB. Power and zone teams have very different opinions on RBs and guards.

Here's DE#11 at 270 pounds and here's DE#12 at 253 pounds. If DE11 is gone then just get DE12. Thats the value pick. But what if he doesnt fit the scheme or need? The next power setting edge that fits your scheme might be DE#15 and so he appears overdrafted. But in reality, you had DE11 at DE8, and DE15 as DE9, and DE12 was your DE22.

Case in point. Tyler Booker. Love him as a prospect. He'd be my top rated guard if I were doing consensus rankings. If I were GM of the 49ers, I dont think hes my top 3 guards. No surprise Kellen Moore like Tyler Shough over Milroe. No surprise Milroe goes to Seattle. Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki nearly had the same stats last year, but one is an inline blocker and the other plays as a big slot. These are not the same players and no surprise power run teams and spead passing teams will value them very differently.

We know teams have vastly different draft boards. There was a piece a decade ago about how the Patriots and Ravens each only had like 70-80 draftable players on their boards while some teams had over 300. Reportedly a whole lot of teams took Mike Green off their boards altogether. There's a lot of variation and a ton of players that go "early" or "late" and a lot of it comes down to individual preference.

I thought Martin was a 3rd round pick going back like six months. His output in 2023 was ridiculous. 2024 was a down season due to the MCL but does that erase the tremendous level of performance he had just a season earlier? He had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and showed that his athleticism more than matched the tape at the Combine. For those running certain schemes like the 49ers, he certainly held a lot of value and the Patriots were apparently quite high on him as well.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Yup, and they're all in contact with these agencies to get grades and draft projections for their clients. To pretend there isn't league-wide consensus on draft value for all college prospects is objectively wrong.

When the scouting services tell the 49ers that--for example--CJ Beathard is a late day-3 pick/potentially UDFA, the 49ers ignore it and draft him in the 3rd-round, that's the embodiment of terrible draft value. So many other examples like this. The one that really irks me is Cam Latu. What the f**k was that?

Agreed…and it's not like there isn't enough data to show those reaches, overall haven't resulted in good moves. One of the most consistent teams overall draft wise is Baltimore, they also lead the league in not drafting against the big board.

Originally posted by scooterhd:
Your still missing a key point. These rankings are done without thought to scheme. Its a good overall consensus ranking and sort of an average overview of where the league might be on a player. But they are done as if players are interchangeable. 3-4 and 4-3 teams have very different opinion about lineman and edge rushers. Offensive coordinators have very different opinions on QB. Power and zone teams have very different opinions on RBs and guards.

Here's DE#11 at 270 pounds and here's DE#12 at 253 pounds. If DE11 is gone then just get DE12. Thats the value pick. But what if he doesnt fit the scheme or need? The next power setting edge that fits your scheme might be DE#15 and so he appears overdrafted. But in reality, you had DE11 at DE8, and DE15 as DE9, and DE12 was your DE22.

Case in point. Tyler Booker. Love him as a prospect. He'd be my top rated guard if I were doing consensus rankings. If I were GM of the 49ers, I dont think hes my top 3 guards. No surprise Kellen Moore like Tyler Shough over Milroe. No surprise Milroe goes to Seattle. Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki nearly had the same stats last year, but one is an inline blocker and the other plays as a big slot. These are not the same players and no surprise power run teams and spead passing teams will value them very differently.

And thats where a guy like Nick Martin is unique. Hes the only LB drafted before the 5th round thats under 229 pounds. Hees in the top 5 at the combine in 40, 10 split, vertical, broad. On body type and athletic profile alone, if you want a light, fast, explosive OLB. He was your choice. Thats not how some teams play so he could easily have a 6 round grade for some teams. If you are a 3-4 team and want to rush with weight, hes not your guy. If thats what you are looking for, then theres wasnt much besides him so you go get it. To you, he has third round value as a starting LB.

If half the league isn't gonna draft a prospect high because of measurables height/weight (like you said) why the hell do you have to reach for him in the first place?

overall this isn't just about Martin it's about how they consistently do this every single yr and overall it has not netted them better players.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by scooterhd:
Your still missing a key point. These rankings are done without thought to scheme. Its a good overall consensus ranking and sort of an average overview of where the league might be on a player. But they are done as if players are interchangeable. 3-4 and 4-3 teams have very different opinion about lineman and edge rushers. Offensive coordinators have very different opinions on QB. Power and zone teams have very different opinions on RBs and guards.

Here's DE#11 at 270 pounds and here's DE#12 at 253 pounds. If DE11 is gone then just get DE12. Thats the value pick. But what if he doesnt fit the scheme or need? The next power setting edge that fits your scheme might be DE#15 and so he appears overdrafted. But in reality, you had DE11 at DE8, and DE15 as DE9, and DE12 was your DE22.

Case in point. Tyler Booker. Love him as a prospect. He'd be my top rated guard if I were doing consensus rankings. If I were GM of the 49ers, I dont think hes my top 3 guards. No surprise Kellen Moore like Tyler Shough over Milroe. No surprise Milroe goes to Seattle. Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki nearly had the same stats last year, but one is an inline blocker and the other plays as a big slot. These are not the same players and no surprise power run teams and spead passing teams will value them very differently.

And thats where a guy like Nick Martin is unique. Hes the only LB drafted before the 5th round thats under 229 pounds. Hees in the top 5 at the combine in 40, 10 split, vertical, broad. On body type and athletic profile alone, if you want a light, fast, explosive OLB. He was your choice. Thats not how some teams play so he could easily have a 6 round grade for some teams. If you are a 3-4 team and want to rush with weight, hes not your guy. If thats what you are looking for, then theres wasnt much besides him so you go get it. To you, he has third round value as a starting LB.

If half the league isn't gonna draft a prospect high because of measurables height/weight (like you said) why the hell do you have to reach for him in the first place?

overall this isn't just about Martin it's about how they consistently do this every single yr and overall it has not netted them better players.

Because it just takes 1 team to similarly value him, and then its not a reach... Wouldnt be shocked if he was LB3 on our board.

So your worst drafting teams based on consensus value are 49ers, Rams, Lions.... I think teams that have a scheme, have an identity, gets players that fit. Other teams that are searching, that have frequent coaching changes, that are drafitng at the top of the board are trying to get maximum 'value.'

Originally posted by scooterhd:
Because it just takes 1 team to similarly value him, and then its not a reach... Wouldnt be shocked if he was LB3 on our board.

No it's still a reach because you're saying he's the 75th best player in the draft, not "hey one other team might like him"

that's like telling me Moody was worth the 100th pick because the Pats might take him in the 4th rd.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Martin was absolutely overdrafted. He wasn't the 75th best player in this draft. Is what it is. I don't think he's a bad player or can't be good in the NFL.

it's not even just about him. It's about the consistency of them reaching every single yr. We have a solid sample size of them doing this and overall it simply doesn't work. Not sure why we're even debating…it's okay to not believe everything they do is right, trust me them won't take your fan card away

See, there you go using absolutes again. He MAY have been overdrafted, but we don't KNOW he wouldn't have gone at 76 if the 49ers took someone else.

And I don't think you'll find me saying they are right to do what appears to be a reach year after year.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Agents also talk to all the teams to get rough ideas of their client's draft grade

And agents are also known to lie to teams about what they have been told by other teams all the time :)

Originally posted by Heroism:
Yup, and they're all in contact with these agencies to get grades and draft projections for their clients. To pretend there isn't league-wide consensus on draft value for all college prospects is objectively wrong.

When the scouting services tell the 49ers that--for example--CJ Beathard is a late day-3 pick/potentially UDFA, the 49ers ignore it and draft him in the 3rd-round, that's the embodiment of terrible draft value. So many other examples like this. The one that really irks me is Cam Latu. What the f**k was that?

Remember this year the public "consensus" was Shadeur Sanders would be an early 1st round pick. Every year there are players valued at A who are flat not on the draft boards of a number of teams. They might generally agree on who they are as a player but that doesn't say where each team values a player is going to be anything alike.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Anyways, back to Nick Martin. Yes, he was overdrafted, but I think he's going to be solid.

That certainly is the appearance.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yes, this is this yr.

#NFLDraft2025: Which teams found the best value and which ones reached during Rounds 1-3?#ATL got the best value, while #SF had the biggest reaches among all teams. The #49ers had two major Round 3 reaches:
CB Upton Stout (75 spots ahead of consensus)
LB Nick Martin (95 spots) pic.twitter.com/8qaseq3f5y

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 28, 2025

this is the collection of reaches since 2017

Here's where the four 2025 reaches rank among the 20 biggest #49ers draft reaches since 2017.

Feeling confident these picks will pan out? Honestly, not many from this list have. https://t.co/U3NuxpPxU5 pic.twitter.com/JND4hzSu37

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 27, 2025

Average Draft Deviation from the Consensus Big Board since 2017, Rounds 1 – 3 (2025 included)

Since 2017, no team has deviated further from the consensus big board in the first three rounds than the #49ers, who on average pick players more than 20 spots earlier than expected.… https://t.co/6UMY1FbwEG pic.twitter.com/Gg3Sc4rDYX

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 29, 2025

Interesting. They limit it to the first 3 rounds so it may change when it's all picks, but interesting even if limited.

Cleveland is going to get a HUGE boost on that chart from picking Sanders.

Originally posted by scooterhd:
So your worst drafting teams based on consensus value are 49ers, Rams, Lions.... I think teams that have a scheme, have an identity, gets players that fit. Other teams that are searching, that have frequent coaching changes, that are drafitng at the top of the board are trying to get maximum 'value.'

it's the 49ers, Rams and Raiders. Since 2017. Raiders draft help lead to multiple firings. Rams drafted poorly for years.

Originally posted by Scoots:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yes, this is this yr.

#NFLDraft2025: Which teams found the best value and which ones reached during Rounds 1-3?#ATL got the best value, while #SF had the biggest reaches among all teams. The #49ers had two major Round 3 reaches:
CB Upton Stout (75 spots ahead of consensus)
LB Nick Martin (95 spots) pic.twitter.com/8qaseq3f5y

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 28, 2025

this is the collection of reaches since 2017

Here's where the four 2025 reaches rank among the 20 biggest #49ers draft reaches since 2017.

Feeling confident these picks will pan out? Honestly, not many from this list have. https://t.co/U3NuxpPxU5 pic.twitter.com/JND4hzSu37

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 27, 2025

Average Draft Deviation from the Consensus Big Board since 2017, Rounds 1 – 3 (2025 included)

Since 2017, no team has deviated further from the consensus big board in the first three rounds than the #49ers, who on average pick players more than 20 spots earlier than expected.… https://t.co/6UMY1FbwEG pic.twitter.com/Gg3Sc4rDYX

— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) April 29, 2025

Interesting. They limit it to the first 3 rounds so it may change when it's all picks, but interesting even if limited.

I mean after the top 100ish picks overall "draft value" is pretty slim imo. No one is gonna be overall concerned if you draft a guy in the 4th that's got a 5th rd grade.

we've overall been pretty horrible drafting on day 2 and that's when a ton of our reaches happen. I wouldn't call that a coincidence

Originally posted by NYniner85:
No it's still a reach because you're saying he's the 75th best player in the draft, not "hey one other team might like him"

that's like telling me Moody was worth the 100th pick because the Pats might take him in the 4th rd.

So Joe Montana was a reach and the 49ers should not have drafted him. Okay.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I mean after the top 100ish picks overall "draft value" is pretty slim imo. No one is gonna be overall concerned if you draft a guy in the 4th that's got a 5th rd grade.

we've overall been pretty horrible drafting on day 2 and that's when a ton of our reaches happen. I wouldn't call that a coincidence

Sure, but you said "Yea but SF is leading the league in this department." ... not "Yea but SF is leading the league in this department in the first 3 rounds."

If they add in the other 4 rounds I wonder how it changes.