Originally posted by thl408:
Lots of informational tidbits in this tweet:
From the tweet:
Let's start with the offensive line, which has been and remains the engine that makes it go in Philly. Eagles are 6th in the league in pass block win rate (64.7%) and 1st by a wide margin in run block win rate (76.6%). The Niners run defense has been much improved of late but this is easily their biggest test of the season. RT Lane Johnson is still as good as it gets but dealing with an injury that kept him out on Sunday. His status key this week.
QB Jalen Hurts and that line work in concert on the "tush push." You know all about it and the reality is, it's pretty unstoppable. It's the driving force behind Philly being 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down conversions and 1st in 4th down conversions. It puts a lot of pressure on the Niners to keep Philly into third and fourth and medium+. One thing I'm curious to see: with TE Dallas Goedert injured, will the Niners use LBs to spy Hurts more than they normally would? There's not a clear option who can make the Niners pay for letting an LB keep tabs on Hurts.
Hurts made hay last year by complementing the Eagles dominant run game with his ability to hit big plays down the field. Those are still there but not as abundant this year. Philly is T-9th in completions of 20+ yards this year after finishing 2nd in the NFL a year ago. Overall, Philly is 12th in the NFL in explosive plays after finishing 1st a year ago. Still, plenty of danger here, especially in close and late situations where Hurts has thrived.
As you might expect, given his scrambling ability, Hurts does NOT get the ball out quick. He's averaging 2.99 seconds per pass this year, which is 5th slowest in the league. That has contributed to the disparity between the OL's excellent PBWR and the fact that Hurts been pressured on on 30.7% of his drop backs (11th most in the league) and sacked on 6.9% of drop backs (11th highest in league).
Hurts is getting middle of the road amounts of man and zone coverages. He's faced man coverage on 42.1% of drop backs (16th) and zone on 57.1% of drop backs (also 16th). He's been equally effective against both with a 65.3 QBR against man and 65.1 against zone. There's no defined drop off from one to the other which means coverage disguises and mixing will be important for Steve Wilks in his efforts to throw Hurts off.
In the run game, the Eagles are led by D'Andre Swift at RB in addition to what they get from Hurts. Swift is 4th in the NFL in yards/game and 11th in yards per carry (4.8). How good is that Philly OL in the run game? Swift is getting a whopping 3.31 yards per carry BEFORE contact, which is 2nd best among RBs. Hurts is 11th in that category at 2.85.
At receiver, the Eagles have been digging deeper into the depth chart with Goedert injured. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith still lead the way with Brown at 95.5 yards per game (6th in the NFL) and Smith at 67.1 yards per game (23rd). Smith doesn't get quite as many opportunities as Brown but he's been a tiny bit more consistent in coming down with it when he's targeted and is very good in tight windows. Smith will also occasionally work from the slot, where he's got 21 receptions for 268 yards and 3 TDs. The Eagles haven't gotten much production from any WRs beyond Brown and Smith but something we saw against Buffalo was a small downturn in TE usage and more multiple WR sets, which means they might be looking to find something else in the slot to help offset the loss of Goedert because they don't have an established TE threat without him. Goedert is one of the more underrated TEs in the league, IMO, and his loss is significant in terms of Philly's options in the pass game.
One thing the Niners must be wary of: playing too much man coverage against Brown. He leads the league in yards and TDs against man this season.
On the turnover front, the Eagles have 16 giveaways, which is 18th in the league. That's come in the form of 6 lost fumbles (T-13th) and 10 interceptions (T-9th most). This is a big departure from last year when they had just 9 INTs and 19 giveaways all season. Turnovers always significant but perhaps an advantage here for the Niners who are T-second in the NFL in takeaways with 21 and first in interceptions with 15. The numbers and tape indicate they'll get some opportunities, so it's important they squeeze them after dropping a few in recent weeks.
Oh he did one for the PHI defense too:
Much like the offense, it all starts up front for the Eagles defense. They're not quite as deep as last year, the pass rush isn't as dominant and they have some injury question marks here but this is still a strong group. Eagles are tied for 11th in sacks with 32 and 5th in pass rush win rate (51.1%) but they rank 28th in pressure percentage (25.4%) and 21st in sack percentage (6.2%). Against the run, the Eagles are tied for 11th in yards per rush allowed (4.1) and 12th in defensive rush play success (61.5%), while ranking 2nd in run stop win rate (35%).
DT Jordan Davis has been an elite run stuffer when on the field. His 48% run stop win rate is 2nd in the NFL, though he's only played 317 snaps. The Eagles might be a bit more vulnerable on the edges, though. They're allowing 6 yards per carry on attempts outside the tackles (25th) and 6.3 yards per carry on attempts outside left tackle (27th). The Niners have been the best in the league running it left (behind Trent Williams) this season.
In the pass rush, Haason Reddick is still a major problem. His 24.3% pass rush win rate is 6th among edge rushers and 8.5 sacks (T-12th) . Josh Sweat is a nice complement at 20.3% pass rush win rate, which is 18th among edge rushers and he has 6.5 sacks (T-23rd). Rookie DT Jalen Carter has also been as advertised, posting a 18.7% PRWR, which is 4th among DTs. He has 4 sacks, too. And it's safe to expect the Eagles to mostly stick to traditional 4-man rushes. They have generated 133 pressures this season using 4 or fewer, which is most in the NFL.
Eagles play almost half and half coverage wise, which makes them one of the most man-heavy teams in the league at 51.4% (7th). They play zone 48.4% of drop backs, which is 26th. They're allowing a 75.3 QBR in man, which is 29th, and a 50.8 QBR in zone, which is 17th. This is a pass defense that has yielded some big numbers this season. Purdy has an 85 QBR (3rd), thrown 16 TDs (T-1st) and 66% completion rate (2nd) against man coverage this year.
Opponents have a 57.9 QBR against the Eagles, which is 30th. They have, however, done a good job forcing teams to earn it against them in passing game, giving up just 6.6 yards per attempt, which is 9th best. That's a good test for Brock Purdy and Co., given they are averaging 9.4 yards/attempt this year, easily the best in the NFL. Eagles are a good tackling team. In a battle of great on great, they're allowing the third fewest YAC/reception in the NFL at 4.37 and they're the best in the league by giving up the lowest yards after contact per game and per play in the league. The Niners lead the league in yards after contact per game and per play. Should be a fun battle here.
CB Darius Slay and S Reed Blankenship are only Eagles with multiple interceptions (2 each). That duo is also allowing the lowest passer rating among the regular DBs at 90.2 and 88.6, respectively. LB Nick Morrow is allowing an 80.3 pass rating as nearest defender, per Next Gen. S Kevin Byard (103.3), LB Zach Cunningham (96.5) and CB James Bradberry (95.1) have been more vulnerable. Bradberry has 1 INT but allowed 6 TDs as nearest defender, per Next Gen. On tape, it seems like teams have had success attacking the intermediate middle by targeting the LBs and safeties. They're giving up a 95.6 QBR on throws between the hashes, which is 28th in the NFL.
On this side of the ball, the Eagles have 14 takeaways (T-18th), which includes 6 interceptions (T-23rd) and 8 fumble recoveries (T-5th).
A quick note on special teams: Niners P Mitch Wishnowsky has been very good but he's facing a punt returner in Britain Covey, who has proved slippery. He's second in the NFL in yards/punt return (14.8). Eagles as a whole have been very good on special teams (4th in EPA on STs).
the media/journalist/fans seem to not give anyone credit.
