QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by Chance:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Chance:
Statistics are objective insofar they provide data points that cannot be disputed. Yes, context can change our analysis of what those statistics mean, inserting subjectivity, but generally speaking, if you want to judge a QB's play over a long period of time, statistics (especially advanced) will match subjective consensus.

No,...on multiple layers.

You're getting way too far into the weeds and away from my point, which remains pretty straightforward. I'm not into pursuing your line of argument.

so long as you know it's extremely flawed and untrue,...we good.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Chance:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Chance:
Statistics are objective insofar they provide data points that cannot be disputed. Yes, context can change our analysis of what those statistics mean, inserting subjectivity, but generally speaking, if you want to judge a QB's play over a long period of time, statistics (especially advanced) will match subjective consensus.

+ Show all quotes
No,...on multiple layers.

You're getting way too far into the weeds and away from my point, which remains pretty straightforward. I'm not into pursuing your line of argument.

so long as you know it's extremely flawed and untrue,...we good.

Yeah, no. I just refuse to argue with a strawman.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Chance:
If it's getting "silly" for you, no one is forcing you to waste your time.

Stafford had a bum shoulder in the season following the SB, so an outlier to include that season in any statistical analysis. The last two years have been solid, but again, I'm not sure what argument I made that a guys' most recent year, or two years, of statistical rankings determine his arbitrary QB tier? No one would look at Mahomes last three years and call him a fringe top ten QB. The stats certainly can help inform a pattern or trajectory, but I'm not arguing that they are the be-all-end-all, nor am I saying they are irrelevant. I have always made my judgement of a QBs quality on a wide range of context, and generally speaking, multi-year statistics will back that up.

Why wouldn't 2 full prior seasons give a good indication of where a player is currently at?

Here's Stafford's ranks among commonly cited metrics* over the last two seasons:

2023:
Passer Rating: 15th
QBR: 6th
EPA/db: 14 (ish)
YPA: 7th

2024:
Passer Rating: 15th
QBR: 12th
EPA/db: 16th (ish)
YPA: 16th

You described statistics as being the only objective measure of a QB's play. But it's still very subjective. Which numbers you choose, for how long the sample is, how the numbers are weighed against each other… all subjective. No less nebulous than a weight of the numbers against an evaluation of what you see. Some of the numbers are simply the product of an evaluation that someone else is making by watching film.

You said:
'But you can't win an argument that dismisses the numbers wholesale in favor of some nebulous eye-test instead.'

Not only are the numbers not dismissed but every single argument is going to be subjective, unless you simply want to pick a stat and list the result free of context.

i think stafford is starting to go off whatever cliff rodgers has already gone off. late 30s is very old for QBs. brady was the exception. russ already cooked, in his mid 30s. then you add in the fact, cooper kupp is no longer what he was, and he's no longer in LA. he was probably the best player in football when the rams won their ring. he was uncoverable. so that's a big hit to the Rams. that's why i think we have the inside track on the division. the rams tip their hand a bit, by punting their round 1 into next season, which is a strong QB1 draft supposedly. i'll take brock over stafford in 2025.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by genus49:
Once again you cut out parts of the post so you can move the narrative another direction.

I'm cutting out parts of posts I'm likely not reading because its so personal the 1st sentence and I'm usually responding to that instead of 49er stuff.

Originally posted by genus49:

Just like our conversations months ago this is not a Purdy is just like Mahomes situation. It's a reminder that arguably the best QB in the sport can't get it done when there are big holes on his roster.

We spent a few pages going over how Purdy's OL is fine and other QBs can play with lesser OLs. Yet the two times we saw Patrick Mahomes in the SB where the refs didn't have blinders to calling holding and his OL was in a state of flux cuz of injuries...the Chiefs got blown out and Mahomes looked nothing like a future HOFer.

So why can't the best QB in the game elevate his roster that was good enough to get to the SB? Why is the narrative well his OL failed him? Why aren't we talking about him throwing atrocious picks?

#1: After getting them there for 3 straight seasons, why can't he be guaranteed to win one more on his own, regardless of the competition, the game plans, et. al.?

This is only 1 game,...which is something I'll never key on and ignore all other info, for 1.

What I'm talking about with Brock are patterns,...trends,....not a single game where damn near anything can happen. So I dont know if someone on some recent pages aside from CS was trying to turn a guy's complete career into a game or 2 of relevance, but it certainly wasnt me.

#2: Mahomes doesn't have to carry his team anywhere, any more for the rest of his career. He's already proven. We'd like for our guy to even get halfway there one day. Hope it happens, but again, I'd rather see his name aside his contemporaries for now instead. JMO.

I had a large response in place but my browser closed by accident and it was wiped away.

Don't feel like typing it out again so I'll try to sum it up. What you call as trends for Brock are a combination of things and not all of them are all on Brock. This scheme isn't known for great success regardless of QB late in games. The one season you're skewing heavily into those trends so much went wrong and yet you have no problem putting those on Brock.

However when it comes to Mahomes when the Chiefs fail it's not because of Mahomes. When they're winning and he's not putting up his big numbers - it's Mahomes willing them to wins. When he's not willing them to wins it's cuz he can only do so much.

That's pretty much the issue. When you have an elite QB their expectations should be higher than QBs like Brock and yet it seems to be flipped. That's odd to me.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Lol. The dude flat out said Purdy was a more accomplished QB than Lamar or Allen because the 49ers went to the Super Bowl. There is not even an attempt in that statement to differentiate between the impact of supporting players in line with what you are saying here.

Posts of people commenting about QBs elevating their teammates is a far cry from examples of 81's argument. Every one of those posts shows an indication of thinking in line with what I bolded in your post: that teammates matter.

Anyone trying to s**t on Jackson/allen to prop up Brock has a pretty weak argument. Also we can't keep downplaying the importance of the overall roster for Brock in 23 (to prop up how great he was) then in the same breath complain about how bad the roster was for him last yr.

too much trying to have your cake and eat it too when defending Brock from some imo.

I think you're probably a little more pessimistic with Brock than me. IMO he's a good young QB with some great intangibles along with the ability to move (wish he would use it more). His arm talent and size will always be less than desirable, is what it is.

I think as long as the roster is in a good spot and Brock is with Kyle, we're gonna win a bunch of games.

You know where I stand on this.

It was almost identical roster in 2022 to 2023 and we never saw the type of dominance as we had most of 2023. I would say OL was a bit stronger in 2022 with McGlinchey at RT over McKivitz who in 2023 wasn't as good as he was last year and not as good as McGlinchey regardless.

Hell you can almost see an improvement with Brock taking over...and why what happened in Philly was so devastating.

I certainly think it's ok to admit we had great players around Brock but he also did a terrific job of putting them in positions to succeed and help us win.

We don't need to put down guys like Lamar and Allen but we also don't need to hold different QBs to different expectations or rules so to speak. At what point can a guy like Purdy be elevated to great QB status where he's not just considered a product of Kyle/skill players around him?

Originally posted by genus49:
You know where I stand on this.

It was almost identical roster in 2022 to 2023 and we never saw the type of dominance as we had most of 2023. I would say OL was a bit stronger in 2022 with McGlinchey at RT over McKivitz who in 2023 wasn't as good as he was last year and not as good as McGlinchey regardless.

Hell you can almost see an improvement with Brock taking over...and why what happened in Philly was so devastating.

I certainly think it's ok to admit we had great players around Brock but he also did a terrific job of putting them in positions to succeed and help us win.

We don't need to put down guys like Lamar and Allen but we also don't need to hold different QBs to different expectations or rules so to speak. At what point can a guy like Purdy be elevated to great QB status where he's not just considered a product of Kyle/skill players around him?

for me what held back purdy last season, he didn't throw with much on it, he held the ball at times, and he was inaccurate at other teams. i like QBs playing in structure and getting it out quick and avoiding negative plays. less lollipops and sometimes drive that football. i'm hoping he had some issue last year, which is now fixed, and his arm looks better. i'm hoping the offense isn't just in breaking routes over the middle. put it all over the place. if he is gonna hold the ball, ok don't run around into a negative play, like a chop robinson sack. when it's late game and down, ok show em why you got the big bucks. no run game, and you gotta figure it out, not turn it over. these are all things i am monitoring.

Originally posted by genus49:
I had a large response in place but my browser closed by accident and it was wiped away.

Don't feel like typing it out again so I'll try to sum it up. What you call as trends for Brock are a combination of things and not all of them are all on Brock. This scheme isn't known for great success regardless of QB late in games. The one season you're skewing heavily into those trends so much went wrong and yet you have no problem putting those on Brock.

However when it comes to Mahomes when the Chiefs fail it's not because of Mahomes. When they're winning and he's not putting up his big numbers - it's Mahomes willing them to wins. When he's not willing them to wins it's cuz he can only do so much.

That's pretty much the issue. When you have an elite QB their expectations should be higher than QBs like Brock and yet it seems to be flipped. That's odd to me.

genus49, whenever I type a large amount of text, like in an email or on a forum, I've made it a habit of copying the 1st paragraph, then copying the first two paragraphs, and so on and so on, just in case the whole thing goes POOF, and I lose it all. I can then at least paste what I've copied and it won't have wasted time and precious thoughts.

Originally posted by Isosceles:
genus49, whenever I type a large amount of text, like in an email or on a forum, I've made it a habit of copying the 1st paragraph, then copying the first two paragraphs, and so on and so on, just in case the whole thing goes POOF, and I lose it all. I can then at least paste what I've copied and it won't have wasted time and precious thoughts.

Good advice. I usually do that cuz I ramble a lot lol. This time I was just multitasking and accidentally clicked the back button on the browser thinking I was using my work laptop mouse.

I gotta say I'd never put money on Chris Simms agreeing with me but seems like I'm not the only one who felt better about Brock after last season.

Great 49ers gift ideas ⇨

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
for me what held back purdy last season, he didn't throw with much on it, he held the ball at times, and he was inaccurate at other teams. i like QBs playing in structure and getting it out quick and avoiding negative plays. less lollipops and sometimes drive that football. i'm hoping he had some issue last year, which is now fixed, and his arm looks better. i'm hoping the offense isn't just in breaking routes over the middle. put it all over the place. if he is gonna hold the ball, ok don't run around into a negative play, like a chop robinson sack. when it's late game and down, ok show em why you got the big bucks. no run game, and you gotta figure it out, not turn it over. these are all things i am monitoring.

All things you didn't care one bit about 3 years ago at this time.

Originally posted by genus49:
I gotta say I'd never put money on Chris Simms agreeing with me but seems like I'm not the only one who felt better about Brock after last season.

Chris Simms on Brock Purdy:

"I was encouraged by a lot of stuff I saw from Brock Purdy last year. I feel like he did more off-schedule, more 'wow' plays, more 'wow' throws, making some more happen when it wasn't there to be had than he had the two years previous to that."

via:… pic.twitter.com/4EjuJJvPlc

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) June 2, 2025

wouldn't be shocked if '25 is his best statistical season yet

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Chance:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Chance:

Statistics are objective insofar they provide data points that cannot be disputed. Yes, context can change our analysis of what those statistics mean, inserting subjectivity, but generally speaking, if you want to judge a QB's play over a long period of time, statistics (especially advanced) will match subjective consensus.

+ Show all quotes
No,...on multiple layers.

You're getting way too far into the weeds and away from my point, which remains pretty straightforward. I'm not into pursuing your line of argument.

so long as you know it's extremely flawed and untrue,...we good.

Rhe best QBs statistically are, as a rule, the best QBs.

Stats don't lie when looked at as a set.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by genus49:
You know where I stand on this.

It was almost identical roster in 2022 to 2023 and we never saw the type of dominance as we had most of 2023. I would say OL was a bit stronger in 2022 with McGlinchey at RT over McKivitz who in 2023 wasn't as good as he was last year and not as good as McGlinchey regardless.

Hell you can almost see an improvement with Brock taking over...and why what happened in Philly was so devastating.

I certainly think it's ok to admit we had great players around Brock but he also did a terrific job of putting them in positions to succeed and help us win.

We don't need to put down guys like Lamar and Allen but we also don't need to hold different QBs to different expectations or rules so to speak. At what point can a guy like Purdy be elevated to great QB status where he's not just considered a product of Kyle/skill players around him?

for me what held back purdy last season, he didn't throw with much on it, he held the ball at times, and he was inaccurate at other teams. i like QBs playing in structure and getting it out quick and avoiding negative plays. less lollipops and sometimes drive that football. i'm hoping he had some issue last year, which is now fixed, and his arm looks better. i'm hoping the offense isn't just in breaking routes over the middle. put it all over the place. if he is gonna hold the ball, ok don't run around into a negative play, like a chop robinson sack. when it's late game and down, ok show em why you got the big bucks. no run game, and you gotta figure it out, not turn it over. these are all things i am monitoring.

Brother we doing this again?

Reading your post and knowing the injuries and issues we had on offense last year you'd think Brock Purdy put up a Brian Hoyer like season.

Know what held back Patrick Mahomes last year? He missed some throws, he threw interceptions and he didn't make the right reads sometimes.

Is that how that works?

Sounds simply like your expectations for Purdy are fairly unattainable unless he manages to play well with garbage around him, something few QBs are able to do.

You also have yet to give me one example of that lollipop throw that hurt us so much last year.

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
wouldn't be shocked if '25 is his best statistical season yet

same here. There was also a lot of pressure early in the season to get Aiyuk the ball, and justify that contract. Then that pressure moved to getting Deebo the ball. And then there was the looming contract.
I think Brock will be much looser this year, free to play his game. I too see a big year, letting everything come to him.

Originally posted by BP13:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
wouldn't be shocked if '25 is his best statistical season yet

same here. There was also a lot of pressure early in the season to get Aiyuk the ball, and justify that contract. Then that pressure moved to getting Deebo the ball. And then there was the looming contract.
I think Brock will be much looser this year, free to play his game. I too see a big year, letting everything come to him.

It's hard to see him top that 2023 season in terms of efficiency but I can definitely see him have a better season overall - more yards, TDs type of deal but we need the squad to stay healthy.