QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Chance:
I have to head out, but wanted to say that I thought Genus's criticism of NY being jaded about Purdy earlier was a bit unwarranted. NY had a far more critical eye on Purdy after 2022, when he was still a more unknown, but I feel that NY has adjusted with new info quite well, even if he isn't among the most optimistic of posters. But credit where credit is due, I think he has a reasonable outlook even if I don't agree with everything on Purdy.

I'm still waiting on SmokeyJoe to describe how exactly Purdy's 2023 numbers were a mirage and he was a fringe top ten QB that year. I'm all ears on that take.

I don't look at his numbers as a mirage. He certainly played really well for 3/4 of the season at least. I look at his numbers as inflated… more of a statement about our offense as a whole than his individual ability. This would be true for any QB. The bottom line is I don't think the numbers people use are a good way of evaluating a player, and I think every QB who has played for Kyle Shanahan has had inflated production, from Schuab to RG3 to Ryan to Mullens etc.

As far as whether he's a fringe top 10 QB, or a top 15 QB etc, I was mostly talking about outside opinion. I ranked Purdy like 8th or 9th coming out of 2023, and he's lower after this last season. That's not to say he wasn't a top 2-3 QB in 2023 statistically… he inarguably was. But I also believe there was at least 7,8,9 other QBs who could have replicated that production or been better in our situation… especially down the stretch and into the playoffs. He had arguably the easiest job of any QB in the league.

Support the bolded. All I'm seeing is conjecture.

If Purdy was a top 2-3 QB statistically (I'd argue he had far and away the best passing statistics that year), then the only leg you have to stand on is based purely on belief. Belief that other guys would have had similar or better numbers in this system. And while that may be true, the fact oft he matter remains that Purdy had those performances and the other QBs didn't.

And as all of us should know, Purdy wasn't just checking the ball down to his weapons, he was pushing the ball downfield better than any QB in the game that year (a guy with the worst arm in the league as you claim). And this all took place behind an offensive line that was a liability with pass blocking.

If Purdy were a check down guy, relying on scheme to succeed, while a great coach hid his flaws, you may have a point, and that point would largely be supported by statistics like low air yards and high yac, or spray charts that illustrated a limited part of the field success was achieved. But neither of these were true. In fact, just watching Purdy play, we can see the anticipation, rifling through his reads, looking off defenders, throwing no-look passes even, consistently finding downfield guys in difficult windows. That's all stuff exposed in the all-22, that show Kyle did nothing to hide any flaws, and let this kid rip in this offense like he was a seasoned vet.

I've always been of the opinion that until Purdy proves otherwise, he's as good as his play on the field irrespective of talent around him and scheme. That puts him in the Stafford range right now, imo. Just outside the top 5, looking in. Obviously arrow down a bit after last year, but his career per game numbers are still elitish.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Sure it does, but he was still pushing the ball in 2023 and he did it at Iowa state. Like I said he's a gunslinger…not a check down Charlie. Sometimes it bites him in the ass, but I'll take someone who's willing to read the field high to low vs looking at his first read and if not there check it down all game.

that's how you are supposed to read it. touchdown to checkdown. i do think with cmc back, the checkdown isn't a bad play, should the downfield options not be open.

Correct that's how you're suppose to read it, Jimmy G wasn't doing that like Brock.

oh I'm all for a check down or a quick screen. There's gotta be balance.

Originally posted by Chance:
Support the bolded. All I'm seeing is conjecture.

If Purdy was a top 2-3 QB statistically (I'd argue he had far and away the best passing statistics that year), then the only leg you have to stand on is based purely on belief. Belief that other guys would have had similar or better numbers in this system. And while that may be true, the fact oft he matter remains that Purdy had those performances and the other QBs didn't.

And as all of us should know, Purdy wasn't just checking the ball down to his weapons, he was pushing the ball downfield better than any QB in the game that year (a guy with the worst arm in the league as you claim). And this all took place behind an offensive line that was a liability with pass blocking.

If Purdy were a check down guy, relying on scheme to succeed, while a great coach hid his flaws, you may have a point, and that point would largely be supported by statistics like low air yards and high yac, or spray charts that illustrated a limited part of the field success was achieved. But neither of these were true. In fact, just watching Purdy play, we can see the anticipation, rifling through his reads, looking off defenders, throwing no-look passes even, consistently finding downfield guys in difficult windows. That's all stuff exposed in the all-22, that show Kyle did nothing to hide any flaws, and let this kid rip in this offense like he was a seasoned vet.

I've always been of the opinion that until Purdy proves otherwise, he's as good as his play on the field irrespective of talent around him and scheme. That puts him in the Stafford range right now, imo. Just outside the top 5, looking in. Obviously arrow down a bit after last year, but his career per game numbers are still elitish.

Agree with the bold. Only film will tell you the story there. Team influenced statistics will not. They can point in a direction but only analysis of all players involved will provide context and a basis for understanding why the numbers are what they are. It's not a belief, though it is subjective. So are conclusions derived from select statistics.

I never called Purdy a check down guy. I mentioned he had limited arm strength and like always the conversation morphs into one centered around deep passing. Deep passing is one facet. There's also stretching the field horizontally, fitting balls into the middle of field outside of relying on elite anticipation and hitting an open zone. It could be something as simple as getting a quick out completed with enough time to make a play upfield. Defenses adjust. How much can we adjust with Brock? We'll see.

Guys - I keep hearing this argument that Brock's not the guy because with all the injuries last year he couldn't carry the team and have the same type of year he had in 2023. 2024 was down from 2024, but Brock's stats weren't terrible. So if that is the standard, I am look for an example of a top 10 QB that did "carry the team" despite injuries. Honestly, is there an good example of QBs that can be just as effective no matter if they have a bunch of key injuries to the offense?

1. Mahommes has been able to adapt to injuries and changing rosters - but even his stats declined when he lost playmakers or had the terrible oline one year. But yes, they made the playoffs.

2. Allen - haven't his stats declined in years he lost key people?

Here is the list of top 10
Dak?
Burrow?
Allen - per above
Love?
Lawrence? - clearly his play has declined when the talent around him did
Tua
Goff
Purdy (technically now)
Herbert
Lammar

Originally posted by HearstFan:
Guys - I keep hearing this argument that Brock's not the guy because with all the injuries last year he couldn't carry the team and have the same type of year he had in 2023. 2024 was down from 2024, but Brock's stats weren't terrible. So if that is the standard, I am look for an example of a top 10 QB that did "carry the team" despite injuries. Honestly, is there an good example of QBs that can be just as effective no matter if they have a bunch of key injuries to the offense?

1. Mahommes has been able to adapt to injuries and changing rosters - but even his stats declined when he lost playmakers or had the terrible oline one year. But yes, they made the Super Bowl .

2. Allen - haven't his stats declined in years he lost key people?

Here is the list of top 10
Dak?
Burrow?
Allen - per above
Love?
Lawrence? - clearly his play has declined when the talent around him did
Tua
Goff
Purdy (technically now)
Herbert
Lammar

Fixed

Pat Macaffey recently was quoted as saying "Brock Purdy could walk on water and you guys would say that's only because he can't swim" which sums it up perfectly imo. He will forever face hypocrisy from his critics due to his draft position and stature. PB's, AP's, SB's, MVP's couldn't change that fact. There will always be a significant number of people who will refuse to give him his due.

Is Brock thread not good enough to discuss this in ?

Originally posted by WINiner:
Pat Macaffey recently was quoted as saying "Brock Purdy could walk on water and you guys would say that's only because he can't swim" which sums it up perfectly imo. He will forever face hypocrisy from his critics due to his draft position and stature. PB's, AP's, SB's, MVP's couldn't change that fact. There will always be a significant number of people who will refuse to give him his due.

Agreed, there will/are many fans, 49ers too, who don't think Brock is any good, or just a system QB, but I love Terry Bradshaw, when he said if Purdy is a system QB then all QBs are, he said he was one while in Pittsburgh.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by WINiner:
Pat Macaffey recently was quoted as saying "Brock Purdy could walk on water and you guys would say that's only because he can't swim" which sums it up perfectly imo. He will forever face hypocrisy from his critics due to his draft position and stature. PB's, AP's, SB's, MVP's couldn't change that fact. There will always be a significant number of people who will refuse to give him his due.

Agreed, there will/are many fans, 49ers too, who don't think Brock is any good, or just a system QB, but I love Terry Bradshaw, when he said if Purdy is a system QB then all QBs are, he said he was one while in Pittsburgh.

Fran Tarkenton Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Mike Vick, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen all beg to differ just off the top of my head

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Agree with the bold. Only film will tell you the story there. Team influenced statistics will not. They can point in a direction but only analysis of all players involved will provide context and a basis for understanding why the numbers are what they are. It's not a belief, though it is subjective. So are conclusions derived from select statistics.

I never called Purdy a check down guy. I mentioned he had limited arm strength and like always the conversation morphs into one centered around deep passing. Deep passing is one facet. There's also stretching the field horizontally, fitting balls into the middle of field outside of relying on elite anticipation and hitting an open zone. It could be something as simple as getting a quick out completed with enough time to make a play upfield. Defenses adjust. How much can we adjust with Brock? We'll see.

I would argue it's easier for defenses to adjust to big arm players who can't throw with anticipation than it is a guy like Purdy who can make his living throwing to a spot.

Sure you can have guys who freelance on defense and basically break what they're actually showing and jump routes that would be open had the defender done his job as drawn up but guys who do that won't last long and guessing like that can get them burned bad.

Like I've been saying if Brock understands his arm limitations it's not an issue. Yes we're loosing some of those plays but those plays shouldn't be needed if we're executing on the other stuff.

And let's be real, Brock has made some pretty impressive off script plays of his own. Maybe not as pretty as Lamar, Allen or Mahomes can do with their legs and arms but Brock is a solid off script guy as well.

Having a stronger arm doesn't correlate to not being able to throw with anticipation, though. They're different things that don't cancel each other out.

Originally posted by random49er:
Having a stronger arm doesn't correlate to not being able to throw with anticipation, though. They're different things that don't cancel each other out.

One is far more rare. One is more indicative of nfl success. One is clearly more important than the other. Of course we all wish Brock had a stronger arm, but it's a bit of a no-big-deal considering guys like Montana and Brees are among the best ever, and they were both without canons attached to their shoulders.

Originally posted by random49er:
Having a stronger arm doesn't correlate to not being able to throw with anticipation, though. They're different things that don't cancel each other out.

You're right but it's something you don't see as often from big arm guys cuz they know they can get the ball in there quickly.

The few who can do both at a high level end up in the HOF.

it's not much different from when Steve Young talked about how it took him a while to really master playing from the pocket cuz he had his legs. If you excel at one thing you don't typically spend a lot of time working on something you don't necessarily have to do.

Originally posted by genus49:
You're right but it's something you don't see as often from big arm guys cuz they know they can get the ball in there quickly.

The few who can do both at a high level end up in the HOF.

it's not much different from when Steve Young talked about how it took him a while to really master playing from the pocket cuz he had his legs. If you excel at one thing you don't typically spend a lot of time working on something you don't necessarily have to do.

Overall you need anticipating and quick processing skills to have consistent success as a QB regardless of anything else.

Some big armed guys have those abilities as well…Allen/mahomes/herbert/stafford/Rogers all come to mind.

There's strong armed QBs that can have success, but more than likely if they can't develop above the neck, they will not sustain that success.