QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by mayo49:
Going to Brock, steady, Brocking all season long........

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Originally posted by YACBros85:


I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Jimmy G haters are slowly transitioning into Purdy haters in real time. Sad to see, really.

"I'm talking about a top 10, maybe top 5, quarterback in the NFL right now."

Originally posted by mayo49:
Going to Brock, steady, Brocking all season long........

We gonna Brock down to Lombardi avenue. And then we'll take it higher...

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

I don't know for sure if almost INTs even do. I just know if I were grading QB performance, they would (assuming I had access to that data), because it's something the QB does (EDIT: In lieu of that data, for my own statistical analyses I tend to just use on target passing). As would great throws which are dropped, including almost TDs. But if I understand Total QBR, it's based almost entirely on EPA, weighted by various factors like situation and location on the field.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

I think you don't understand the difference between "an impressive play" and "an impressive play that is also clutch." Moreover, I LOVE BROCK PURDY WTF ARE YOU SMOKING. The only "agenda" is precision and accuracy in discussion. He wondered by Brock's touchdown might not matter much in Total QBR, and I explained it. NOTHING MORE OCCURRED THERE. The reality is that, per at least the data I posted above, the 49ers were almost certain to win the game at that point. Even if Brock throws a pick six there the 49ers would have had a better than 50% chance of winning the game, because the Giants would have to get the ball back within about five minutes and drive down the field and score a touchdown to win, and couldn't even tie the game without scoring a two point conversion after the pick six. Since QBR seems to include situational moments, such as when the game is essentially won, it would obviously not weigh that touchdown pass very much.

The fact that such nuance STILL eludes guys like you after YEARS of failing to grasp nuance with Jimmy discussions, why am I even bothering to reply? Shame on me...

To summarize for those who lack clarity of thought:

1.) He wondered how much the "clutch" touchdown to Deebo—which while a GREAT, even PERFECT throw, the moment in which it was thrown wasn't even REMOTELY NEAR a clutch situation given that it was near impossible for the 49ers to lose at that point.

2.) I answered what I think is probably a good, factual answer: Total QBR is said to take into account the situation, and from what I gather, bases whether or not a situation is "clutch" in part by things like win probability, or something similar. Thus it seemed reasonable to me that a touchdown when the team already has more than a 98% chance of winning is unlikely to tip the scales much. Total QBR chooses to base their metric on expected points and how much those expected points matter towards winning. That inevitably leads to a diminishing value of great plays when the game is essentially decided.

He's checking off boxes with every game, but there still are a few more to go for myself. I doubt I'll see it soon, because the offensive skill talent he has around him could be second to none in the NFL. I'd like to see how he does with lesser talent to see if he can make average talent, better. If he can 'carry' a team, then that is part of what goes into making a truly great quarterback. Another scenario I'd like to see is with 1:30 left in a game, down by 6....can he deliver? Of course, I also want to see him consistently elevate himself when it comes to the playoffs.

So far, so good however.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by YACBros85:


I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

Originally posted by Heroism:
"I'm talking about a top 10, maybe top 5, quarterback in the NFL right now."

"This young man has it."@nateburleson says Brock Purdy might be a Top 5 QB in the NFL 👀 pic.twitter.com/PM1iw0bEFj

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 24, 2023

Yeah he's right. That's correct.

Originally posted by Heroism:
"I'm talking about a top 10, maybe top 5, quarterback in the NFL right now."

"This young man has it."@nateburleson says Brock Purdy might be a Top 5 QB in the NFL 👀 pic.twitter.com/PM1iw0bEFj

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 24, 2023

Some NFL scout just punched a hole into the wall.

Originally posted by RickyRoma:
He's checking off boxes with every game, but there still are a few more to go for myself. I doubt I'll see it soon, because the offensive skill talent he has around him could be second to none in the NFL. I'd like to see how he does with lesser talent to see if he can make average talent, better. If he can 'carry' a team, then that is part of what goes into making a truly great quarterback. Another scenario I'd like to see is with 1:30 left in a game, down by 6....can he deliver? Of course, I also want to see him consistently elevate himself when it comes to the playoffs.

So far, so good however.

Absolutely agree, *so far, so good.* The only thing I would say with operating with lesser offensive talent, is that the OLine (specially on the right side) needs to be upgraded. You can operate with lesser offensive talent, in my opinion, if you have elite Offensive Line talent. Give Brock 3+ seconds and he can definitely create some passing offensive fireworks. Having said that, in the playoffs and possibly in the Super Bowl, those offensive talent deficiencies will show up, by a better team.

An example of that would be the 49ers vs Chargers, the Chargers were exposed in the super bowl by a more complete team. In other words, I'd like ShanaLynch to keep the offensive firepower up, and not let it diminish - if they want to get to the championship game year in and year out. (easier said that than done for sure, though).

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Jimmy G haters are slowly transitioning into Purdy haters in real time. Sad to see, really.