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QB Brock Purdy Thread

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QB Brock Purdy Thread

May 22, 2023 at 9:20 PM
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Giedi:

😍😍. Love it. That's really impressive. He was money on those passes

he completely was putting it on guys, not just completing but dotting, right between the numbers stuff

His tight window throws were drool worthy. There are quite a few throws that I was just like "wow".

what I really liked is he was able to hit tight window throws on short, middle, deep. & the redzone

Agree, those tight window passes are reminiscent to me of Brees. Man o Man did Kyle get lucky if he got a more mobile Brees. We shall see.

Tight window throws?

[tweet

So basically if this team has the highest expected completion percentage, then our QBs overall attempted easier throws than every other QB in the league? Interesting.

Somewhat unrelated, but it's weird that Jimmy was equal or better than Brock in almost every advanced stat in the games where he played with CMC, but the team scored more points with Brock under center. Not sure what to make of that.

Sounds like we need better advanced stats...

In the interim:
QBR with McCaffrey:
Jimmy: 40.5, 76.4, 58.1, 78.0, 82.0. Avg: 67.0
Purdy: 56.5, 93.0, 64.8, 61.6, 67.9, 51.7, 89.5, 53.3. Avg: 67.2.

So I'd say in QBR Purdy was slightly better, had better best games, including one elite game and one nearly elite game, no below average games (50 is average IIRC), but had more games closer to a little above average and Jimmy had more games a lot above average. Whereas Jimmy had one below average game and two games far above average, one really very good game.

But the main difference between them is Purdy's TD%, which was a ridiculous 7.6%.


Is the 40.5 from the Chiefs game? I'm not sure it makes sense to include that considering CMC had just gotten here and wasn't really utilized in the way he was going forward. Without that game, Jimmy's average QBR is 73.6 for what it's worth.
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May 22, 2023 at 9:25 PM
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:


Purdy at 26
Darnold at 27
Lance unranked.
Jimmy not yet ranked.

Thoughts? Fears? Concerns? Ad hominem attacks?

Purdy too low
Sammy too high
Lance, who is that?
May 23, 2023 at 12:03 AM
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 33,371
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Giedi:

😍😍. Love it. That's really impressive. He was money on those passes

he completely was putting it on guys, not just completing but dotting, right between the numbers stuff

His tight window throws were drool worthy. There are quite a few throws that I was just like "wow".

what I really liked is he was able to hit tight window throws on short, middle, deep. & the redzone

Agree, those tight window passes are reminiscent to me of Brees. Man o Man did Kyle get lucky if he got a more mobile Brees. We shall see.

Tight window throws?

[tweet

Brock was Purdy in the playoffs. Zero interceptions.
May 23, 2023 at 12:08 AM
  • All22
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,849
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Sounds like we need better advanced stats...

In the interim:
QBR with McCaffrey:
Jimmy: 40.5, 76.4, 58.1, 78.0, 82.0. Avg: 67.0
Purdy: 56.5, 93.0, 64.8, 61.6, 67.9, 51.7, 89.5, 53.3. Avg: 67.2.

So I'd say in QBR Purdy was slightly better, had better best games, including one elite game and one nearly elite game, no below average games (50 is average IIRC), but had more games closer to a little above average and Jimmy had more games a lot above average. Whereas Jimmy had one below average game and two games far above average, one really very good game.

But the main difference between them is Purdy's TD%, which was a ridiculous 7.6%.

Yeah, it seemed like we scored at will with Brock under center. What was his lowest scoring game? 23 or so?

Idk what it was exactly but I thought it was clear that Brock played, and operated the offense, better than Jimmy. I thought Jimmy was playing his best ball too. Some say it was CMC, and I'm sure that's a core factor, but Jimmy had CMC while he was still getting comfortable with the offense. On the other hand, Brock was an inexperienced rookie with essentially no reps all year.

You'd think Jimmy would of benefited more than Brock because CMC is an all-pro vet and Jimmy is a Vet. But instead a rookie with essentially no team reps got the most out of CMC (and everyone else).

i think Brock's special. Idk why anyone would rather play someone else over him if he's healthy. I really think we lucked out and found very special qb.

Because he didn't seem special to the eye. Yes, He added some escapability we haven't seen since Jeff Garcia but he also had a number of throws that should've been easy picks for the defense, his release and processing is noticeably slower than Jimmy, and that spin and roll left thing he does got extremely predictable at the end.

Not to mention most of the offensive improvement can reasonably be attributed to CMC (and Mitchell).

It wouldn't surprise me if "the book" on him made its way around the league this off-season and his performance dropped off a cliff. Remember how good Kaepernick was in the beginning?
May 23, 2023 at 12:08 AM
  • Giedi
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 33,371
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Giedi:

😍😍. Love it. That's really impressive. He was money on those passes

he completely was putting it on guys, not just completing but dotting, right between the numbers stuff

His tight window throws were drool worthy. There are quite a few throws that I was just like "wow".

what I really liked is he was able to hit tight window throws on short, middle, deep. & the redzone

Agree, those tight window passes are reminiscent to me of Brees. Man o Man did Kyle get lucky if he got a more mobile Brees. We shall see.

Tight window throws?

[tweet

So basically if this team has the highest expected completion percentage, then our QBs overall attempted easier throws than every other QB in the league? Interesting.

Somewhat unrelated, but it's weird that Jimmy was equal or better than Brock in almost every advanced stat in the game where he played with CMC, but the team scored more points with Brock under center. Not sure what to make of that.

You have to actually watch the games to be able to figure out things like that.

I mean he's right and you know how I feel about Jimmy. I do remember the defense taking the ball away in the DC game setting them up fairly well. not sure about the others off the top of my head.

I feel like Brock played well in the RZ. someone pointed his numbers but it felt better lol.

His numbers throwing to the right side of the field were really bad, not sure what to make of that and it's worth monitoring.

I'm betting opposing defenses are rotating their defenses to the right to force Brock to go to his 2nd and 3rd reads. Maybe thats why he's throwing better to his left.
May 23, 2023 at 1:27 AM
Originally posted by Giedi:
Brock was Purdy in the playoffs. Zero interceptions.

Another amazing factor. Especially going against that Dallas D
May 23, 2023 at 2:42 AM
Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:
The stat that stands out to me is their playoff performance.

Jimmy's 6 playoff games combined stats compared to Purdy's first playoff game lol... its mind boggling... I'll try to find the stats and post. Found it.....


its in the tweet lol... crazy...

We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.
[ Edited by NYniner85 on May 23, 2023 at 3:01 AM ]
May 23, 2023 at 2:45 AM
Originally posted by elguapo:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Brock was Purdy in the playoffs. Zero interceptions.

Another amazing factor. Especially going against that Dallas D

Boy there was a handful of throws that could have very easily been INTs. We can't count on that s**t going that way all the time. Things like TD% and TD/INT ratio aren't a static stat. If Brock maintains what he did in those categories, he's gonna be an all-pro. It's just hard to assume that off such a small sample size.
[ Edited by NYniner85 on May 23, 2023 at 3:00 AM ]
May 23, 2023 at 5:45 AM
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,417
Originally posted by NYniner85:
We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.

4 of Jimmy's top 5 yardage games came before CMC was a factor(1 of the 4 was the KC game where CMC just got here and played less than 30% of the snaps)
May 23, 2023 at 6:14 AM
Originally posted by All22:
Because he didn't seem special to the eye. Yes, He added some escapability we haven't seen since Jeff Garcia but he also had a number of throws that should've been easy picks for the defense, his release and processing is noticeably slower than Jimmy, and that spin and roll left thing he does got extremely predictable at the end.

Not to mention most of the offensive improvement can reasonably be attributed to CMC (and Mitchell).

It wouldn't surprise me if "the book" on him made its way around the league this off-season and his performance dropped off a cliff. Remember how good Kaepernick was in the beginning?

Did kap or jimmy set numerous rookie/nfl records in their starts? Maybe kap for rushing, but outside of potentially that, they weren't nearly as good as Brock. Hence the records.

Numerous nfl d coordinators and current/ex head coaches said it really only takes 2-4 games of film to figure someone out. Purdy played 7-8. It isn't like they're going to see something now where he "falls off a cliff". He may have to adjust to different defenses but he was doing that quarter to quarter. Specifically in second halves of games. What he does isn't some gimmick that people haven't figured out… he actually plays qb and doesn't rely on some special athletic ability to do well.

he's going to have some games where he isn't great, that's just part of the learning curve.

you can go back and watch film if Trey and say the same thing "he had a bunch of throws that should of been picked". I can think of 2 from the bears game alone. That's just playing QBs and being inexperienced against nfl defenses. You can find that for every QB. If he can't improve, then it's a problem, but I think it's just a lazy cop out to say that without understanding the context of it with other qbs around the league. Lol

its just hilarious to me how some try to downplay what he did by saying certain things. It's one thing to be cautiously optimistic and another to dwell on the potential bad and latch onto it. Lol it's like some subconsciously hope he fails. Who cares if we've been excited about others before and we were wrong? Lol it happens. It's hard to find a franchise qb - hence its been decades for this team. Just enjoy the ride. Lmao whatever happens, happens. You have no control over it.

it's not possible to have watched Purdy and not be excited/optimistic and been blown away by what he did, unless you're bitter that it meant Lance may not get the job back. Lol like there is no rational explanation to have watched him last season and not be extremely impressed.
He was top 5 in so many major catagories, the offense as a whole was rolling. No one could even beat this team when he was starting. It took a freak injury. Lol just stop it.
[ Edited by tankle104 on May 23, 2023 at 6:23 AM ]
May 23, 2023 at 6:17 AM
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:
The stat that stands out to me is their playoff performance.

Jimmy's 6 playoff games combined stats compared to Purdy's first playoff game lol... its mind boggling... I'll try to find the stats and post. Found it.....


its in the tweet lol... crazy...

We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.

Yeah, I'm sure he will come down some. We can't expect him to break a ton of TD records like he did continually. Lol as long as it's still in the top 5, I'm good with that.

i think it's naive to assume it won't come down. Lol but it would be amazing if it didn't
May 23, 2023 at 6:56 AM
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:
The stat that stands out to me is their playoff performance.

Jimmy's 6 playoff games combined stats compared to Purdy's first playoff game lol... its mind boggling... I'll try to find the stats and post. Found it.....


its in the tweet lol... crazy...

We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.

Yeah, I'm sure he will come down some. We can't expect him to break a ton of TD records like he did continually. Lol as long as it's still in the top 5, I'm good with that.

i think it's naive to assume it won't come down. Lol but it would be amazing if it didn't

For sure. Film is out there now. Tendencies. DC's already know Kyle and now have an off season to plan for Brock. The good news is everyone in the world knew Kyle + Jimmy and still couldn't stop them so I don't expect a major drop off for Purdy either.
May 23, 2023 at 7:05 AM
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season

23. BROCK PURDY, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Purdy passed for 8.3 yards per attempt last season in his run as the starter — more than Patrick Mahomes and every quarterback in the league other than Tua Tagovailoa — but he attempted just 233 passes in an offense we know to be a virtual cheat code for production. It would be wrong to dismiss his success altogether — he was better than players like Nick Mullens who also had success in that offense — but it would also be crazy to overreact to such a small sample size, even outside of the risk associated with the UCL surgery Purdy had on his elbow.
May 23, 2023 at 7:51 AM
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.

4 of Jimmy's top 5 yardage games came before CMC was a factor(1 of the 4 was the KC game where CMC just got here and played less than 30% of the snaps)

so is yardage what matters? With CMC he completed 73% of his passes, had a QB rating of 113.5, was avg 230 yards per game (29 P/A per), and had 8 TDs to zero INTs.
May 23, 2023 at 8:02 AM
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
We all know Jimmy was awful in the playoffs. I would hope we all want better there. Also why didn't he include all of Brock's playoff games like he did with Jimmy? I think a lot of us are talking about Jimmy when he had CMC, which is what Brock had as well. This dude talks about cherry picking but is doing it in his own right lol.

Like others said the scoring improvement was do to Brock's crazy TD%. That's a stat that imo can change awful quickly year to year. Hopefully it doesn't and he just becomes the highest TD% of all-time lol…but I do think it's reasonable to assume some sort of regression there.

4 of Jimmy's top 5 yardage games came before CMC was a factor(1 of the 4 was the KC game where CMC just got here and played less than 30% of the snaps)

so is yardage what matters? With CMC he completed 73% of his passes, had a QB rating of 113.5, was avg 230 yards per game (29 P/A per), and had 8 TDs to zero INTs.

Just to be accurate that was a 113 passer rating. QB rating is much lower. QBR is supposed to be a better way of evaluating the QB performance since it uses more factors. The passer rating, which is the most commonly used is too simple. It gives a lot of weight to yardage when so much of it comes from YAC. It also values completion % very highly which is fine except when the passes are mostly short 5-10 yard tosses.
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