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Injuries - 9-Year Analysis

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Originally posted by NCommand:
New, complete data for 2022 is in and the original post updated. Very surprising. I legit thought this was our healthiest year by far esp. compared to all teams. I figured no worse than 16th which would be a massive improvement for us. Nope. I guess we're just numb to this:

Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th (NFCCG)
2012 - 1st (Superbowl)
2013 - 23rd (NFCCG)
2014 - 26th
2015 - 26th
2016 - 24th
2017 - 23rd
2018 - 29th
2019 - 27th (Superbowl)
2020 - 32nd
2021 - 29th (NFCCG)
2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

We are still affected by our investment in injured guys. Our draft and free agent philosophy has changed, but until guys like Kinlaw, and the like are completely gone, I'd imagine that skews our data. Jimmy G and Verrett add to this as well.

Right now the only red flag guys are Elijah Mitchell and Trey (only because he has so many injuries compared to games he could've been available for).

It'll slowly come down as we are less dependent on injury prone starters and fingers crossed that Trey remains healthy.
Originally posted by English:
If you don't agree with the format of the argument and believe that other factors ought to be taken into account, then by all means present a case with the extra information incorporated. If you just don't agree with the whole thing, I suggest you don't come in to the thread. There are plenty of other threads.

And if you feel you have exhausted your case and made your arguments and others still persist with theirs, then you haven't convinced them, which is so often the case, and clearly you won't change their minds on this matter.

So move on.

Oh no. There's generally one injury thread and if conspiracy theories are hawked in it, I'll counter with my viewpoints just as everyone else does. When I come into the injury thread, I expect to see information about injuries. Other injury threads have been locked in the past, so this is the one, and a certain viewpoint shouldn't control it. There's no need to focus on individual posters,...let's focus on the team and the posts being made, shall we?

I'll continue on with my counterpoints:

1) AGL is an actual #,....not a yearly ranking. Why was this number not shared?

2) Where are the other teams, and how did they fair in 2022 as compared to us with this ranking and again, why was it not shared if the focus is to analyze? Doing so in relation to a season just ending would allow others to actually put what's been a central focus of our injury thread into context.

3) One can clearly make the argument that at our main spot where we "suffered" from injuries,...that BOTH major injuries at that position (QB) significantly improved the level of the team and the resulting wins. Again I stress, how does a number (that was not provided in the OP, by the way) capture this?

In all likelihood, it raised the AGL number and dropped us in this subsequent ranking. But the levelheaded ones here know that it would've been hard for Lance to have outplayed Jimmy's production this past year, and Purdy then outplayed Jimmy.

This is superb example of why this number and ranking is to not at all be trusted or relied on.

4) Given the 3 above (as well as all of the points made previously regarding these #'s), are we really focused on analysis? Or are we simply laying the groundwork for something else to continue with as the season approaches and begins? It's very well known that ShanaLynch loves to feast on previously injured, talented players at a discount price, that have a higher likelihood of being injured again and probably raising this inaccurate AGL number.

Analyze the ANLYSES,....not the particular poster that shares their opinion. Let's keep it all football and team-based.

So for you and others: If these legit, team-based counter points are too much for you, as said previously, there are other threads and you can feel free to ignore the clearly legit counterpoint made above.

This post is is a reply to the topic (and narrative that's been pushed within it) in general, and not any specific poster. It's for everyone to read, but I understand if you wish not to.
[ Edited by random49er on Mar 19, 2023 at 8:12 AM ]
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by NCommand:
New, complete data for 2022 is in and the original post updated. Very surprising. I legit thought this was our healthiest year by far esp. compared to all teams. I figured no worse than 16th which would be a massive improvement for us. Nope. I guess we're just numb to this:

Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th (NFCCG)
2012 - 1st (Superbowl)
2013 - 23rd (NFCCG)
2014 - 26th
2015 - 26th
2016 - 24th
2017 - 23rd
2018 - 29th
2019 - 27th (Superbowl)
2020 - 32nd
2021 - 29th (NFCCG)
2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

We are still affected by our investment in injured guys. Our draft and free agent philosophy has changed, but until guys like Kinlaw, and the like are completely gone, I'd imagine that skews our data. Jimmy G and Verrett add to this as well.

Right now the only red flag guys are Elijah Mitchell and Trey (only because he has so many injuries compared to games he could've been available for).

It'll slowly come down as we are less dependent on injury prone starters and fingers crossed that Trey remains healthy.

It's a great point. I really think we let Moseley leave because of it. Really good player...when healthy. How often do we say that around here? Maybe Ward too? But then we do compensate by bringing in Isaiah Oliver who's coming off an ACL (and I love the signing). LOL
[ Edited by NCommand on Mar 19, 2023 at 8:27 AM ]
Thank you for changing the thread title to 9 years to acknowledge the team has yet to address and rectify their injury problem.

do we think 3 starting QBs will be enough to get the 49ers through this season of football?
[ Edited by BobSacamano69 on Mar 19, 2023 at 3:51 PM ]
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Thank you for changing the thread title to 9 years to acknowledge the team has yet to address and rectify their injury problem.

do we think 3 starting QBs will be enough to get the 49ers through this season of football?

Hopefully that new emergency QB rule goes through. Better late than never. LOL
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Thank you for changing the thread title to 9 years to acknowledge the team has yet to address and rectify their injury problem.

do we think 3 starting QBs will be enough to get the 49ers through this season of football?

Hopefully that new emergency QB rule goes through. Better late than never. LOL

Can they make an "emergency qb" rule for every position on the team? They can call it the 49er rule since the 49ers need it more than every other Team.

the things this team has accomplished with the state of their health is baffling
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Thank you for changing the thread title to 9 years to acknowledge the team has yet to address and rectify their injury problem.

do we think 3 starting QBs will be enough to get the 49ers through this season of football?

Hopefully that new emergency QB rule goes through. Better late than never. LOL

Can they make an "emergency qb" rule for every position on the team? They can call it the 49er rule since the 49ers need it more than every other Team.

the things this team has accomplished with the state of their health is baffling

Fans really don't get how rare this point is. It's the biggest anomaly out there.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
Thank you for changing the thread title to 9 years to acknowledge the team has yet to address and rectify their injury problem.

do we think 3 starting QBs will be enough to get the 49ers through this season of football?

Hopefully that new emergency QB rule goes through. Better late than never. LOL

Can they make an "emergency qb" rule for every position on the team? They can call it the 49er rule since the 49ers need it more than every other Team.

the things this team has accomplished with the state of their health is baffling

Fans really don't get how rare this point is. It's the biggest anomaly out there.

I know. Incredible.
Originally posted by BobSacamano69:
. . . . They can call it the 49er rule since the 49ers need it more than every other Team.
the things this team has accomplished with the state of their health is baffling

Is it, though? We don't play in a vacuum; there are 31 other teams, and they have to deal with injuries as well. Who did you compare us to before deciding that the accomplishments are baffling? KC?

Originally posted by NYniner85:
hmmm interesting

[ Edited by random49er on Mar 19, 2023 at 5:09 PM ]
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by NCommand:
New, complete data for 2022 is in and the original post updated. Very surprising. I legit thought this was our healthiest year by far esp. compared to all teams. I figured no worse than 16th which would be a massive improvement for us. Nope. I guess we're just numb to this:

Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th (NFCCG)
2012 - 1st (Superbowl)
2013 - 23rd (NFCCG)
2014 - 26th
2015 - 26th
2016 - 24th
2017 - 23rd
2018 - 29th
2019 - 27th (Superbowl)
2020 - 32nd
2021 - 29th (NFCCG)
2022 - 24th (NFCCG)

We are still affected by our investment in injured guys. Our draft and free agent philosophy has changed, but until guys like Kinlaw, and the like are completely gone, I'd imagine that skews our data. Jimmy G and Verrett add to this as well.

Right now the only red flag guys are Elijah Mitchell and Trey (only because he has so many injuries compared to games he could've been available for).

It'll slowly come down as we are less dependent on injury prone starters and fingers crossed that Trey remains healthy.

It's a great point. I really think we let Moseley leave because of it. Really good player...when healthy. How often do we say that around here? Maybe Ward too? But then we do compensate by bringing in Isaiah Oliver who's coming off an ACL (and I love the signing). LOL

He came off the ACL last season hurt it the season before and played last season.

Originally posted by random49er:
Oh no. There's generally one injury thread and if conspiracy theories are hawked in it, I'll counter with my viewpoints just as everyone else does. When I come into the injury thread, I expect to see information about injuries. Other injury threads have been locked in the past, so this is the one, and a certain viewpoint shouldn't control it. There's no need to focus on individual posters,...let's focus on the team and the posts being made, shall we?

I'll continue on with my counterpoints:

1) AGL is an actual #,....not a yearly ranking. Why was this number not shared?

2) Where are the other teams, and how did they fair in 2022 as compared to us with this ranking and again, why was it not shared if the focus is to analyze? Doing so in relation to a season just ending would allow others to actually put what's been a central focus of our injury thread into context.

3) One can clearly make the argument that at our main spot where we "suffered" from injuries,...that BOTH major injuries at that position (QB) significantly improved the level of the team and the resulting wins. Again I stress, how does a number (that was not provided in the OP, by the way) capture this?

In all likelihood, it raised the AGL number and dropped us in this subsequent ranking. But the levelheaded ones here know that it would've been hard for Lance to have outplayed Jimmy's production this past year, and Purdy then outplayed Jimmy.

This is superb example of why this number and ranking is to not at all be trusted or relied on.

4) Given the 3 above (as well as all of the points made previously regarding these #'s), are we really focused on analysis? Or are we simply laying the groundwork for something else to continue with as the season approaches and begins? It's very well known that ShanaLynch loves to feast on previously injured, talented players at a discount price, that have a higher likelihood of being injured again and probably raising this inaccurate AGL number.

Analyze the ANLYSES,....not the particular poster that shares their opinion. Let's keep it all football and team-based.

So for you and others: If these legit, team-based counter points are too much for you, as said previously, there are other threads and you can feel free to ignore the clearly legit counterpoint made above.

This post is is a reply to the topic (and narrative that's been pushed within it) in general, and not any specific poster. It's for everyone to read, but I understand if you wish not to.

Dude. The posts you make come accross as salty and aggressive. And now you want to take on a very well respected mod in a counter? The OP disagrees with many things I say but he either does not comment or will be objective.
Please either show your evidence of why the team is not badly injured for past 9 years or just drop it and move on.
Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Dude. The posts you make come accross as salty and aggressive. And now you want to take on a very well respected mod in a counter? The OP disagrees with many things I say but he either does not comment or will be objective.
Please either show your evidence of why the team is not badly injured for past 9 years or just drop it and move on.

There's no digging for me to do, because my points (and they are numerous) have already been made.

You OTOH countered nothing that I posted. How I sound has nothing to do with injury rates, the 49ers, whether injuries are crippling us (causation), or whether it's just an anecdotal variable. Please,...stay on topic.
[ Edited by random49er on Mar 19, 2023 at 7:59 PM ]
Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Originally posted by random49er:
Oh no. There's generally one injury thread and if conspiracy theories are hawked in it, I'll counter with my viewpoints just as everyone else does. When I come into the injury thread, I expect to see information about injuries. Other injury threads have been locked in the past, so this is the one, and a certain viewpoint shouldn't control it. There's no need to focus on individual posters,...let's focus on the team and the posts being made, shall we?

I'll continue on with my counterpoints:

1) AGL is an actual #,....not a yearly ranking. Why was this number not shared?

2) Where are the other teams, and how did they fair in 2022 as compared to us with this ranking and again, why was it not shared if the focus is to analyze? Doing so in relation to a season just ending would allow others to actually put what's been a central focus of our injury thread into context.

3) One can clearly make the argument that at our main spot where we "suffered" from injuries,...that BOTH major injuries at that position (QB) significantly improved the level of the team and the resulting wins. Again I stress, how does a number (that was not provided in the OP, by the way) capture this?

In all likelihood, it raised the AGL number and dropped us in this subsequent ranking. But the levelheaded ones here know that it would've been hard for Lance to have outplayed Jimmy's production this past year, and Purdy then outplayed Jimmy.

This is superb example of why this number and ranking is to not at all be trusted or relied on.

4) Given the 3 above (as well as all of the points made previously regarding these #'s), are we really focused on analysis? Or are we simply laying the groundwork for something else to continue with as the season approaches and begins? It's very well known that ShanaLynch loves to feast on previously injured, talented players at a discount price, that have a higher likelihood of being injured again and probably raising this inaccurate AGL number.

Analyze the ANLYSES,....not the particular poster that shares their opinion. Let's keep it all football and team-based.

So for you and others: If these legit, team-based counter points are too much for you, as said previously, there are other threads and you can feel free to ignore the clearly legit counterpoint made above.

This post is is a reply to the topic (and narrative that's been pushed within it) in general, and not any specific poster. It's for everyone to read, but I understand if you wish not to.

Dude. The posts you make come accross as salty and aggressive. And now you want to take on a very well respected mod in a counter? The OP disagrees with many things I say but he either does not comment or will be objective.
Please either show your evidence of why the team is not badly injured for past 9 years or just drop it and move on.

Random keeps this thread alive.

I just post the annual data and their respective rankings compared to all other teams within Adjust Games Lost which takes into account the quality and quantity of those injuries. The aggregate average rank over the past 9 years gives us a better idea how we've fared over time compared to all other teams. I expanded to show the strong correlation of high/low AGL to the odds of making the playoffs.

It's really not that complicated if he spent 30 seconds reading the OP and clicked on the annual link. LOL

As to the bold, you'll never get that from him because that data doesn't exist; and he's literally the last and only one dying on that hill alone.

His issues are clearly personal in here. That's beyond obvious (hence why he's blocked).
Originally posted by random49er:
Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Dude. The posts you make come accross as salty and aggressive. And now you want to take on a very well respected mod in a counter? The OP disagrees with many things I say but he either does not comment or will be objective.
Please either show your evidence of why the team is not badly injured for past 9 years or just drop it and move on.

There's no digging for me to do, because my points (and they are numerous) have already been made.

You OTOH countered nothing that I posted. How I sound has nothing to do with injury rates, the 49ers, whether injuries are crippling us (causation), or whether it's just an anecdotal variable. Please,...stay on topic.

So all your argument comes down to is the mathematics of random occurrances that any old team could catch a dose of? For 9 Years? OK. I got it.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Random keeps this thread alive.

I just post the annual data and their respective rankings compared to all other teams within Adjust Games Lost which takes into account the quality and quantity of those injuries. The aggregate average rank over the past 9 years gives us a better idea how we've fared over time compared to all other teams. I expanded to show the strong correlation of high/low AGL to the odds of making the playoffs.

It's really not that complicated if he spent 30 seconds reading the OP and clicked on the annual link. LOL

As to the bold, you'll never get that from him because that data doesn't exist; and he's literally the last and only one dying on that hill alone.

His issues are clearly personal in here. That's beyond obvious (hence why he's blocked).

This thread was so quiet for the lead up to the post season that it was really nice to just enjoy the victories and relative health of the team. I think even the FO must have been holding their breath........but how do you have 4 QB's go down in 1 year? WOWSERS
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