The Iron-Pyrite-Lining Thread (Negative people come on in!)

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Ensatsu:

You still have statistically better odds of hitting in the first round.

Or heck, just drafting a QB who has great intermediate accuracy, good arm talent, and mechanics would be a start.

Right now, the Niners just remind me of the Browns last year. Beathard as a player kind of looks like that Cody Kessler pick. Just a project for Kyle and Hue Jackson to fiddle around with.

The question is, what will be the plan for next year? Hopefully not another project player like DeShone Kizer. They need some direction at the QB, and it starts at the top of the first round.

Or I guess in free agency with Kirk, but I wouldn't like it.

There's a major difference. Browns were trying to play it off like Kessler was some hidden gem and they were going to pretend like he's their future.

Browns also didn't have a potential QB waiting for them in free agency next season like a Kirk Cousins. And as others have mentioned Wentz was a lot more proven and had one of the best offseasons for a prospect in some time.

Not sure why you get this "it starts at the top of the first round" crap.

Here are the best QBs in the game right now...somewhat off an order at top then all over the place

The top 3 and the clear cut elite in Brady, Rodgers and Brees were all drafted outside the top 20.

Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Matt Ryan - top 5
Ben Roethlisberger #11
Phillip Rivers - top 5
Matt Stafford - top 5
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Derek Carr - 2nd round
Andrew Luck - top 5
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Dak Prescott - 4th round
Cam Newton - top 5
Winston - top 5
Mariota - top 5

Clearly it's not all about the early first round picks...

Clearly? So the few exceptions to that doesn't mean you avoid drafting a QB in the top 5 picks cause the Seahawks got Wilson later so can we! That's a bad philosophy to have. And during their respected drafts Rodgers was considered a top 5 prospect as was Big Ben and if it wasn't for his brother I believe Derek would have been as well. So Tom is an outlier and so is Kirk. Russell and Drew both fell in the draft cause of their size. While busts happen at the top you are acting as though scouts miss all the time. Which is rediculous.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Clearly? So the few exceptions to that doesn't mean you avoid drafting a QB in the top 5 picks cause the Seahawks got Wilson later so can we!

This. It's the most specious reasoning, but people do it all the time.

Kurt Warner was underafted, so you don't need to spend a draft pick on a QB.

Brees is 5'11 205 with a weaker arm, so height, weight & arm strength don't matter.

Derek Carr, so f**k hand size.

Phillip Rivers, so who cares if the release is funky.

Ben Reothlisberger, so who cares if he went to a small school with bad competition.

So what you want in a QB is a 5'11, 205, weak-armed QB from a small school with a funky release & small hands. But do't waste a draft pick trying to find this guy because you can get him undrafted. HOF.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Clearly? So the few exceptions to that doesn't mean you avoid drafting a QB in the top 5 picks cause the Seahawks got Wilson later so can we! That's a bad philosophy to have. And during their respected drafts Rodgers was considered a top 5 prospect as was Big Ben and if it wasn't for his brother I believe Derek would have been as well. So Tom is an outlier and so is Kirk. Russell and Drew both fell in the draft cause of their size. While busts happen at the top you are acting as though scouts miss all the time. Which is rediculous.

Yes....clearly.

How exactly are you going to look at that list and pretend drafting QB in the top 5 is the only way to go. That's basically the argument "top of the first round".

I specifically said it's a bad move waiting til round 3 to address the position thinking we'll get the next Montana/Brady/Wilson..etc but CLEARLY it's not all at the top of the first or bust.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Clearly? So the few exceptions to that doesn't mean you avoid drafting a QB in the top 5 picks cause the Seahawks got Wilson later so can we! That's a bad philosophy to have. And during their respected drafts Rodgers was considered a top 5 prospect as was Big Ben and if it wasn't for his brother I believe Derek would have been as well. So Tom is an outlier and so is Kirk. Russell and Drew both fell in the draft cause of their size. While busts happen at the top you are acting as though scouts miss all the time. Which is rediculous.

Yes....clearly.

How exactly are you going to look at that list and pretend drafting QB in the top 5 is the only way to go. That's basically the argument "top of the first round".

I specifically said it's a bad move waiting til round 3 to address the position thinking we'll get the next Montana/Brady/Wilson..etc but CLEARLY it's not all at the top of the first or bust.

I agree their are players who are gems but if you look at how many QBs "bust" in the first and how many late round QBs who never make it to their second contract I would say the numbers over history would favor 1st round QBs.

With QB being the most important position plenty of times teams reach in the first for one leading to obvious busts. Ponder, Gabbert, Manuel, Losman, etc. But when a player is considered a really good prospect you rarely have the Russels, Leafs and Carrs (who went to an atrocious team which broke him so I don't put it all on David)

OK, let me see if I can inject some reality into this discussion of where we draft a quarterback next year.

WE DON'T.

As I've been saying since Kyle Shanahan was hired, we're going to get Kurt Cousins next year. Anybody that can't read these tea leaves could walk threw a tobacco leaf barn with 1,000 hanging leaves hitting them in the face with every step and not be able to find any tobacco.

Kyle stood on the table imploring the Skins to draft Kirk, opposed the RGIII pick, fought all the way to play Kirk over RG, got fired over it, Kyle and Kirk have since been reported personal friends, this year Kyle has said glowing things about Kirk, Kirk has said glowing things about Kyle, Kirk has said he has been disrespected by Washington, Washington has repeatedly said they want Kirk to "prove it" one more year, Washington has tried to low ball Kirk, Kirk has said he will never sign a long term contract with Washington, Kirk has proven this by forcing Washington to franchise him not once, but twice for a first in league history, and Kirk has said publicly he will Only sign a long term contract with San Francisco, which anybody with any understanding of how the world works knows nobody would ever say publicly if they didn't already Know they were wanted. Oh, and Kyle and Kirk have the same agent. Now, after next Monday, Kirk will be a free agent next March, unless Washington wants to franchise him again for $35m, or $10m more than anybody has ever been paid, and that with no future because you can't tag anybody a fourth time, all for a quarterback it's recently reported they still don't have that high a grade on. That would gut their team, and ain't gonna happen. Or, the transition tag would cost them even more because we would front load the contract to lock them out. This deal is already worked out in principle. Washington is not going to trade him to Cleveland for more money, or LA, or anyplace else, because Cousins won't sign the long term contract. Washington is not going to trade him to us, because for the first time in a looong time, we have smart people running the show that won't pay for what they can get for free, and since we're trying to rebuild over two or three years anyway, that year has as much value to us giving Hoyer the reps. Fans may think he'll end up elsewhere, but Kyle and John Lynch know he won't.

OK, flash forward a year. We have Kirk to start, Hoyer with all of 2017 experience in the system and team to back him up and still under contract, and CJ Beathard coming along entering his second year in the system. We're filled up in the position, except for a disposable camp arm, which we won't use draft capital on.

Never in the history of the NFL has the future of a personnel move been so transparent and assured.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

I agree their are players who are gems but if you look at how many QBs "bust" in the first and how many late round QBs who never make it to their second contract I would say the numbers over history would favor 1st round QBs.

With QB being the most important position plenty of times teams reach in the first for one leading to obvious busts. Ponder, Gabbert, Manuel, Losman, etc. But when a player is considered a really good prospect you rarely have the Russels, Leafs and Carrs (who went to an atrocious team which broke him so I don't put it all on David)

Once again my point was that it didn't have to be top of the first round. That to me says top 5 pick.

Yes the earlier you draft prospects it increases the odds of success but I when we look at the current NFL QBs it tells you that your hopes of landing a legit QB die if you don't take one top 5.

You could certainly make a case for the idea that less top 5 QBs excel in this league because they go to crappy teams who may have poor talent or high coach turnover which hamper the development but the results still show a team isn't doomed if they decide not to go QB top 5.

Hell look at what helped turn around Oakland. They finally decided rather than reach for a QB who may not be worth drafting early they took a stud defender in Mack and got lucky by landing Carr in the 2nd round.

It may not always work out like that and if we're picking top 5 again next year and a top QB prospect is on the board and Kirk Cousins isn't a 49er...hell yeah you pull that trigger.

But people are acting like passing up on a Trubisky shows we have no plan...that's silly.

Originally posted by genus49:

Once again my point was that it didn't have to be top of the first round. That to me says top 5 pick.

Yes the earlier you draft prospects it increases the odds of success but I when we look at the current NFL QBs it tells you that your hopes of landing a legit QB die if you don't take one top 5.

You could certainly make a case for the idea that less top 5 QBs excel in this league because they go to crappy teams who may have poor talent or high coach turnover which hamper the development but the results still show a team isn't doomed if they decide not to go QB top 5.

Hell look at what helped turn around Oakland. They finally decided rather than reach for a QB who may not be worth drafting early they took a stud defender in Mack and got lucky by landing Carr in the 2nd round.

It may not always work out like that and if we're picking top 5 again next year and a top QB prospect is on the board and Kirk Cousins isn't a 49er...hell yeah you pull that trigger.

But people are acting like passing up on a Trubisky shows we have no plan...that's silly.

Okay we're on the same page. And I was very relieved when the Bears traded up and took Trubs. I was afraid they were taking Thomas. I thought Mitch was a case of a weak QB class and getting pushed up due to it.

Originally posted by BOI49er:

OK, let me see if I can inject some reality into this discussion of where we draft a quarterback next year.

WE DON'T.

As I've been saying since Kyle Shanahan was hired, we're going to get Kurt Cousins next year. Anybody that can't read these tea leaves could walk threw a tobacco leaf barn with 1,000 hanging leaves hitting them in the face with every step and not be able to find any tobacco.

Kyle stood on the table imploring the Skins to draft Kirk, opposed the RGIII pick, fought all the way to play Kirk over RG, got fired over it, Kyle and Kirk have since been reported personal friends, this year Kyle has said glowing things about Kirk, Kirk has said glowing things about Kyle, Kirk has said he has been disrespected by Washington, Washington has repeatedly said they want Kirk to "prove it" one more year, Washington has tried to low ball Kirk, Kirk has said he will never sign a long term contract with Washington, Kirk has proven this by forcing Washington to franchise him not once, but twice for a first in league history, and Kirk has said publicly he will Only sign a long term contract with San Francisco, which anybody with any understanding of how the world works knows nobody would ever say publicly if they didn't already Know they were wanted. Oh, and Kyle and Kirk have the same agent. Now, after next Monday, Kirk will be a free agent next March, unless Washington wants to franchise him again for $35m, or $10m more than anybody has ever been paid, and that with no future because you can't tag anybody a fourth time, all for a quarterback it's recently reported they still don't have that high a grade on. That would gut their team, and ain't gonna happen. Or, the transition tag would cost them even more because we would front load the contract to lock them out. This deal is already worked out in principle. Washington is not going to trade him to Cleveland for more money, or LA, or anyplace else, because Cousins won't sign the long term contract. Washington is not going to trade him to us, because for the first time in a looong time, we have smart people running the show that won't pay for what they can get for free, and since we're trying to rebuild over two or three years anyway, that year has as much value to us giving Hoyer the reps. Fans may think he'll end up elsewhere, but Kyle and John Lynch know he won't.

OK, flash forward a year. We have Kirk to start, Hoyer with all of 2017 experience in the system and team to back him up and still under contract, and CJ Beathard coming along entering his second year in the system. We're filled up in the position, except for a disposable camp arm, which we won't use draft capital on.

Never in the history of the NFL has the future of a personnel move been so transparent and assured.

There is a whole lot of presumption there. First is that nothing is over until its over with Cousins. Second is that you are putting the cart way the hell ahead of the horse with Beathard. And third we have no idea whether Hoyer even plays an entire season.

Originally posted by mojave45:

Originally posted by BOI49er:

OK, let me see if I can inject some reality into this discussion of where we draft a quarterback next year.

WE DON'T.

As I've been saying since Kyle Shanahan was hired, we're going to get Kurt Cousins next year. Anybody that can't read these tea leaves could walk threw a tobacco leaf barn with 1,000 hanging leaves hitting them in the face with every step and not be able to find any tobacco.

Kyle stood on the table imploring the Skins to draft Kirk, opposed the RGIII pick, fought all the way to play Kirk over RG, got fired over it, Kyle and Kirk have since been reported personal friends, this year Kyle has said glowing things about Kirk, Kirk has said glowing things about Kyle, Kirk has said he has been disrespected by Washington, Washington has repeatedly said they want Kirk to "prove it" one more year, Washington has tried to low ball Kirk, Kirk has said he will never sign a long term contract with Washington, Kirk has proven this by forcing Washington to franchise him not once, but twice for a first in league history, and Kirk has said publicly he will Only sign a long term contract with San Francisco, which anybody with any understanding of how the world works knows nobody would ever say publicly if they didn't already Know they were wanted. Oh, and Kyle and Kirk have the same agent. Now, after next Monday, Kirk will be a free agent next March, unless Washington wants to franchise him again for $35m, or $10m more than anybody has ever been paid, and that with no future because you can't tag anybody a fourth time, all for a quarterback it's recently reported they still don't have that high a grade on. That would gut their team, and ain't gonna happen. Or, the transition tag would cost them even more because we would front load the contract to lock them out. This deal is already worked out in principle. Washington is not going to trade him to Cleveland for more money, or LA, or anyplace else, because Cousins won't sign the long term contract. Washington is not going to trade him to us, because for the first time in a looong time, we have smart people running the show that won't pay for what they can get for free, and since we're trying to rebuild over two or three years anyway, that year has as much value to us giving Hoyer the reps. Fans may think he'll end up elsewhere, but Kyle and John Lynch know he won't.

OK, flash forward a year. We have Kirk to start, Hoyer with all of 2017 experience in the system and team to back him up and still under contract, and CJ Beathard coming along entering his second year in the system. We're filled up in the position, except for a disposable camp arm, which we won't use draft capital on.

Never in the history of the NFL has the future of a personnel move been so transparent and assured.

There is a whole lot of presumption there. First is that nothing is over until its over with Cousins. Second is that you are putting the cart way the hell ahead of the horse with Beathard. And third we have no idea whether Hoyer even plays an entire season.

I don't understand any of that. Of course it hasn't happened yet. I'm suggesting it's the plan, which you don't have to agree with. You're suggesting he'll change his mind? I'm suggesting he won't. Career ending injuries, North Korean nukes, and life can intervene. Beathard could be so bad he gets cut in his rookie season by the guy that drafted him. How much would you bet on that? I'm still only projecting him third string his second year. And Hoyer doesn't play an entire season? What does that even mean? I'm saying he's currently under contract for two years, so if he plays really well, he won't be free to go seek a starting job next year as we will own his services for one more year.

Originally posted by BOI49er:
I don't understand any of that. Of course it hasn't happened yet. I'm suggesting it's the plan, which you don't have to agree with. You're suggesting he'll change his mind? I'm suggesting he won't. Career ending injuries, North Korean nukes, and life can intervene. Beathard could be so bad he gets cut in his rookie season by the guy that drafted him. How much would you bet on that? I'm still only projecting him third string his second year. And Hoyer doesn't play an entire season? What does that even mean? I'm saying he's currently under contract for two years, so if he plays really well, he won't be free to go seek a starting job next year as we will own his services for one more year.

I do think the signs look promising in Cousins coming here but your post screamed guarantee/sure thing. That's putting your cart before the horse.

First of all other players have been franchised twice by their teams. Second I believe Cousins said the team he'd want to be traded to was the 49ers. That was a while back now when there was a lot of animosity and craziness within that front office after they fired McCloughlan.

Not to mention it sounds like Daniel Snyder may actually be that petty that he could fuk over his own team and tag Cousins again just so Kyle doesn't get him for cheap if at all. Meanwhile time is ticking...Cousins isn't a spring chicken. The guy will be 29 this season and 30 entering next year when you're guaranteeing we'll sign him.

Now maybe that's not the same thing as a RB turning 30 and he doesn't have the same tread on his tires as someone who started as a rookie but it's still something to consider. So saying we won't draft a QB early next year because of Cousins is a serious assumption. We could sign him AND draft a QB early and really as important as that position is in today's NFL...nobody should complain about that type of move.

Originally posted by genus49:

I do think the signs look promising in Cousins coming here but your post screamed guarantee/sure thing. That's putting your cart before the horse.

First of all other players have been franchised twice by their teams. Second I believe Cousins said the team he'd want to be traded to was the 49ers. That was a while back now when there was a lot of animosity and craziness within that front office after they fired McCloughlan.

Not to mention it sounds like Daniel Snyder may actually be that petty that he could fuk over his own team and tag Cousins again just so Kyle doesn't get him for cheap if at all. Meanwhile time is ticking...Cousins isn't a spring chicken. The guy will be 29 this season and 30 entering next year when you're guaranteeing we'll sign him.

Now maybe that's not the same thing as a RB turning 30 and he doesn't have the same tread on his tires as someone who started as a rookie but it's still something to consider. So saying we won't draft a QB early next year because of Cousins is a serious assumption. We could sign him AND draft a QB early and really as important as that position is in today's NFL...nobody should complain about that type of move.

It's an assertion. The future can not be guaranteed. And it is absolutely true no quarterback has ever been franchised twice even in a career, let alone consecutively.

Look. All I am saying is the "tea leaves" we are looking at is that Kirk Cousins has outright told us he's going to sign with us, and nobody else. And everybody's actions back that up. That's not getting its just due on this board. I don't think it's reasonable or justified that everybody is choosing to disbelieve it or ignore it. Much of it is just denial imo by those that just don't want Cousins.

Getting a Qb , a great qb in the NFL, is the ultimate in roll of the dice. First you have to be a crappy team so you are picking high in the first rd. Then you have to be really lucky and have that be the yr there actually were true #1 FR QBs available. Take this yr for example. There were NO FR QBs available. Last yr there were two drafted for "six paks" but one (Wentz) may be a FR QB, and the other...well, maybe not. So just having great potential FR QBs in the draft is a gamble. This yr, wiht our high pick at #2, there were no FR QBs.

Then we come down to the most important issue of all...and that is having a HC and GM who know FR QB Talent(Cousins) and just as important, know who ISN'T. (Manziel). And Kyle came down for Cuzins and against Johnny football. "Oh, that wasn't that difficult "some will say. But Jerry Jones came damn near taking Manziel a couple yrs back but was hog tied and persuaded otherwise by his son Steve (the putative GM). So no, picking a Qb is not that easy and only a very few HCs or GMs can do it. Look at the QB whisperer, harbaw. He thot Kap was the one. Well, for a couple yrs he was, right up to the time at the end of yr 2, when the NFL had him figured out and ...he wasn't.

So:
Talent is a crapshoot
Your draft pick order is a crapshoot
Having a HC /GM who are great evaluators of FR QB talent is a crapshoot.

I think it fair to say that kyle has proven his value at evaluating a FR QB....and unlike Harbaw, he also has the ability fo know when a QB is NOT FR QB material. One is just as important as the other.

Lastly, the team needs to be in good cap shape , and able to pounce when that rare FR QB does appear. So of the requisites for getting a FR QB, right now we are in the best shape ever, since Coach Walsh to get our FR QB. Whether this yr...or the next...or the next...when that guy becomes available, we will get him.

unless, that is if we haven't already acquired Cousins.

As far as the other factors involved in landing a FR QB, we seem to be poised better than most teams , to take a FR QB should one appear. To me, the #1 most important variable is the HC/GM who can evaluate the QB talent and know when a guy is a FR QB. I think we are there as of this moment. Even better, we have the Kyle-Kurt link already in place, we have Kurt's current Owner/GM being stupid nut job, and are in good shape to get the best QB availabale ...in FA this coming yr. Having kyle here has changed our long term outlook not to mention our near term outlook.

I believe our one downside this yr will be our draft position. And there, i think it will be a lot further down the list than most expect. Sorry about that NY. But i see our unproven talent coming together this yr and surprising everyone. .500 is where i see us landing, wth a shot at 9 Ws but also could be 7 Ws. Whatever, we probably will be picking from the exact middle of the pack...ie, #16 or so. With cap room aplenty, we can make that "6 pak " deal if one of the colleges phenom actually pans out to be half as good as their current supporters say. Or a Dak Prescott appears, but we have a HC who could sniff out talent like that.

No matter how you look at it, by deciding pre FA that there was no FR QB to be had, and kyle/john decided to take a guy who knew the WCO and was able to run Kyle's O, but was NOT a FR QB, they have left us in perfect position to get what we need in 2018. There is no team i can see anywhere near where we are as far as being in good shape to get a FR QB in 2018. Thank john and especially kyle for that.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Getting a Qb , a great qb in the NFL, is the ultimate in roll of the dice. First you have to be a crappy team so you are picking high in the first rd. Then you have to be really lucky and have that be the yr there actually were true #1 FR QBs available. Take this yr for example. There were NO FR QBs available. Last yr there were two drafted for "six paks" but one (Wentz) may be a FR QB, and the other...well, maybe not. So just having great potential FR QBs in the draft is a gamble. This yr, wiht our high pick at #2, there were no FR QBs.

Then we come down to the most important issue of all...and that is having a HC and GM who know FR QB Talent(Cousins) and just as important, know who ISN'T. (Manziel). And Kyle came down for Cuzins and against Johnny football. "Oh, that wasn't that difficult "some will say. But Jerry Jones came damn near taking Manziel a couple yrs back but was hog tied and persuaded otherwise by his son Steve (the putative GM). So no, picking a Qb is not that easy and only a very few HCs or GMs can do it. Look at the QB whisperer, harbaw. He thot Kap was the one. Well, for a couple yrs he was, right up to the time at the end of yr 2, when the NFL had him figured out and ...he wasn't.

So:
Talent is a crapshoot
Your draft pick order is a crapshoot
Having a HC /GM who are great evaluators of FR QB talent is a crapshoot.

I think it fair to say that kyle has proven his value at evaluating a FR QB....and unlike Harbaw, he also has the ability fo know when a QB is NOT FR QB material. One is just as important as the other.

Lastly, the team needs to be in good cap shape , and able to pounce when that rare FR QB does appear. So of the requisites for getting a FR QB, right now we are in the best shape ever, since Coach Walsh to get our FR QB. Whether this yr...or the next...or the next...when that guy becomes available, we will get him.

unless, that is if we haven't already acquired Cousins.

As far as the other factors involved in landing a FR QB, we seem to be poised better than most teams , to take a FR QB should one appear. To me, the #1 most important variable is the HC/GM who can evaluate the QB talent and know when a guy is a FR QB. I think we are there as of this moment. Even better, we have the Kyle-Kurt link already in place, we have Kurt's current Owner/GM being stupid nut job, and are in good shape to get the best QB availabale ...in FA this coming yr. Having kyle here has changed our long term outlook not to mention our near term outlook.

I believe our one downside this yr will be our draft position. And there, i think it will be a lot further down the list than most expect. Sorry about that NY. But i see our unproven talent coming together this yr and surprising everyone. .500 is where i see us landing, wth a shot at 9 Ws but also could be 7 Ws. Whatever, we probably will be picking from the exact middle of the pack...ie, #16 or so. With cap room aplenty, we can make that "6 pak " deal if one of the colleges phenom actually pans out to be half as good as their current supporters say. Or a Dak Prescott appears, but we have a HC who could sniff out talent like that.

No matter how you look at it, by deciding pre FA that there was no FR QB to be had, and kyle/john decided to take a guy who knew the WCO and was able to run Kyle's O, but was NOT a FR QB, they have left us in perfect position to get what we need in 2018. There is no team i can see anywhere near where we are as far as being in good shape to get a FR QB in 2018. Thank john and especially kyle for that.

Let me just add that men that can play quarterback in the NFL are not just born. They have to be coached and taught. And having the coach that can recognize the aptitude level and develop the skills is the necessary ingredient. I think that's where we've hit the jackpot. Plus, to make it all work, he needs a system and personnel that all fit. Lov'n me some Kyle Shanahan.

Going into next years draft without a plan to take a QB out of a strong draft class... I don't believe we see that. Whether or not we sign Cousins. He will already be 30. Unless Beathard shows flashes of excellence and he turns into the long term plan, which I don't think he is right now, we start looking for the FQB of the future. If we sign Cousins we STILL need to be thinking past that. We don't want to be one injury away from irrelevant again.

This puts it to bed...

https://riggosrag.com/2017/07/12/rams-potential-trade-partner-kirk-cousins-redskins/

She's right....Niners can't match the offer of Goff, Donald & picks

Thanks Jed