John Lynch - 49ers GM

What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

4.113- CJ West, DT- Indiana

4.138- Jeffrey Bassa, LB- Oregon

5.147- Marcus Mbow, OT- Purdue

5.160- Jordan Hancock, CB- OSU

7.227- Brashard Smith, RB- SMU

7.249- Connor Colby, OG- Iowa

7.252- Luke Lachey, TE- Iowa

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

4.113- CJ West, DT- Indiana

4.138- Jeffrey Bassa, LB- Oregon

5.147- Marcus Mbow, OT- Purdue

5.160- Jordan Hancock, CB- OSU

7.227- Brashard Smith, RB- SMU

7.249- Connor Colby, OG- Iowa

7.252- Luke Lachey, TE- Iowa

I'm assuming this is a "in my opinion" ?

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

4.113- CJ West, DT- Indiana

4.138- Jeffrey Bassa, LB- Oregon

5.147- Marcus Mbow, OT- Purdue

5.160- Jordan Hancock, CB- OSU

7.227- Brashard Smith, RB- SMU

7.249- Connor Colby, OG- Iowa

7.252- Luke Lachey, TE- Iowa

I'm assuming this is a "in my opinion" ?

What should have happened "IMO"

1.11- Jalon Walker, LB/DE- Georgia

2.43- Will Johnson, CB- Michigan

/thread

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
The 49ers have absolute NOT hit on 52% of their draft picks. Not even close

depends on what you call a "hit"

Chat GPT list a player a hit if they are starter or share a large snap count, or are a major special teams contributor.

Some sites list a hit as a second NFL contract...then some people do not even count the first 2 years.

With Chat GPT--where this is all coming from--- Someone like Drake Jackson would be a partial hit since he has started, but been injured. DJ Reed is a hit since has had a good NFL career...just not with the 49ers. Someone like Ruben Foster is not, even though he started...he was out the league quickly....but S Thomas, would he started over 40 games with multiple contracts on multiple teams.

Either way...it is the same criteria used for the entire NFL...so whatever personal criteria you choose to use (and I probably would agree), it would apply to every draft pick...so all boats would rise or drop based on whatever tide we want to measure by.

No way to easily copy and paste what GPT reports, but they have 16 clear misses and 19 clear hits .....and 4 or so players that it is too early to tell (moody-Zakelj-Luter-Davis)

They will not rate people taken in 2024 or 2025 yet (duh).

So we have 51 players taken under Shanny between 2017 and 2023 ....47 that are not under a too early to tell stage.

The hits are:
1. Kittle
2, DJ Jones
3. McGlenchey
4. Warner
5. DJ Reed
6. Bosa
7. Deebo
8. Wish
9. Greenlaw
10. BA
11. McKevits
12. JJ
13. Banks
14. Lenior
15.Huff
16.Mitchell
17.Buford
18.Purdy
19.Brown

we have Partial hits that are in a grey area like Kinlaw..he started every game last year for the Jets but did not live up to his draft status...and guys like Ahkello Witherspoon that had multiple season starting with multiple teams...and of course guys like Drake Jackson that has started but can't stay on the field....That and Moody is probably why you feel resistance with the 52% number...but chat GPT list them as hits if they had success in the NFL...I get your resistance to the number, and I share it to a degree. Even a guy like S. Thomas started for 3 different teams and 4 years of consecutive starts makes him a hit...but you and I would call him the opposite..a bust.

Again though, every NFL team is measured by the same scale...so if we go selectively tossing out guys that don't fit our personal criteria...you have to toss every other NFL teams players with similar stories.

If we tossed out these "grey area" players... Would you agree with 40%-ish hit rate? that is roughly what the 19 out of 47 gets you.

That still puts us over the NFL average by a large margin, and lines the 49ers up with the average NFL hit rate on 3rd round picks.

I have a feeling when the 2024 draft class gets graded...that too is going to push the number up...too many guys I would not bet against being a draft "hit".

1.Ricky Pearsall

2.Renardo Green

3.Dominick Puni

4.Malik Mustapha

5.Isaac Guerendo

6.Jacob Cowing

7.Jarrett Kingston

8.Tatum Bethune

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:

1. Originally posted by pillageDatazz:
   PFF is effing lame for this comment... not their first and last thoughtless comment
   
   Now, if they are saying that because we didn't do much of anything besides one dude on oline, then I get it

No. They are saying this because of where we chose the players

- (3rd round) Nick Martin had a 5th round grade
- (3rd round) Upton Stout had a 6th round grade
- (4th round) CJ West had a 5th round grade
- (4th round) Jordan Watkins had an UDFA grade
- (5th round) Marques Sigle had an UDFA grade
- (7th round) Junior Bergen had an UDFA grade

man, you should know that those grades (PFF's or any other media's) are worth exactly zero for the 49ers and for any other franchise,... over the years it's been quite clear that media's grades and those of the teams are very different, specially from the first round on,...

PFF has Mykel Williams at nº38,.... there's no world where Williams would drop till the 2nd round,... niners wanted even to trade up to get him,... and rightly so because it wasn't clear that he was going to be there at 11th

the only thing niners have to worry is their own grades and where the other teams place the players they are planning to pick,.... and we don't have this information at all,... we just have the amateurish evaluations that are made in forums like this one and the media's evaluation,... which are completely worthless,... both
to talk about reaching in the draft is absurd,.... reaching with repect to what? to the PFF grades? to the nfl.com grades? to your own grades?

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

"What should have happened"?
really?

seems someone's hurt after the draft,... do you think that because you've watched a couple of player's film you can evaluate better than a professional team full of scouts, doctors, coaches, etc., etc.,? well, sorry to tell you but you cannot

I give it a B+

Originally posted by replikante:

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

"What should have happened"?
really?

seems someone's hurt after the draft,... do you think that because you've watched a couple of player's film you can evaluate better than a professional team full of scouts, doctors, coaches, etc., etc.,? well, sorry to tell you but you cannot

You take it so personal lol I like his draft.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:
You take it so personal lol I like his draft.

Yeah I mean I thought there was some reaching for sure. Overall I wanted them to attack the defense, especially DL in this draft. They did it with two of the 3 guys I really liked (Williams/West) I'm warming up on Collins after seeing Hero and others talk about him. I would have went in a different direction with some of the picks but overall good there.

they added some serious beef and muscle up front and got a ton of speed behind it.

I need to watch more of Jordan Watkins to have an idea on him. Serious juice on the outside, go watch that Arkansas game 👀 they could have something there.

I knew they wanted James at RB. That was talked about throughout the draft process. He likes to score TDs, so I'm down with that. One of the few RBs that they actually drafted that I think will live up to the pick.

like everyone else, would have liked a pick or two on OL…especially IOL. Overall once Grant got scooped up, I was out on all the rest of these tackles. Someone like Mnbow or Frazier would have made this draft an A for me.

wild we had 11 picks and didn't move at all. I don't even think they really tried too hard to trade. I would have liked more dealing and moving around to get guys they valued vs taking who's there.

Originally posted by replikante:

Originally posted by Sask49erFan:
What should have happened:

1.11 - Mykel Williams, DE- Georgia

2.43- Alfred Collins, DT- Texas

3.75- Lathan Ransom, SS- OSU

3.100- Billy Bowman, FS- Oklahoma

"What should have happened"?
really?

seems someone's hurt after the draft,... do you think that because you've watched a couple of player's film you can evaluate better than a professional team full of scouts, doctors, coaches, etc., etc.,? well, sorry to tell you but you cannot

It's funny when people say this like teams have some godly knowledge.

Years ago when I used to get really into the draft with friends, we would write down our picks of what it should be and look back on it years later to see how it all turned out. I had a number of years where I drafted better than the 9ers. (And some that didn't as well) It may not be as hard as some think as we have had some pretty crappy draft classes, and other teams as well.

If you stick to what a general consensus is and not try to get too smart, you'll be right there.

Straight C for now. The only grade that matters comes when they start playing. In all fairness it takes a couple of years before you truly know what you got.. if we expect miracles from these guys we will be disappointed.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I give it a B+

I didn't care for the back half of the draft but I'll have to wait to see how they play out before being too critical. We will need WR help and if the 4.3 speed helps us get separation - awesome.

i really like the fit of Williams, Collins, Nick, and west. I think they're excellent scheme fits. I think upton is a little small but I like his attitude, athleticism/strength, and confidence. I'm optimistic about him in the nickel.

The guard we grabbed is an intriguing prospect - he's a good scheme fit for us. Hopefully the KR/PR guy can help out special teams - lord knows we need all the help there that we can get

I often want Offence drafted...but there is a quote from Bill Walsh that always rings in my head...

"The only way you can play defense is with athletes," Walsh told the Chicago Tribune. "If there's a flaw in your defense, it always shows up against the better teams. Offensively, you can manipulate it to take advantage of the men you have and stay clear of the men who don't have the ability to make the big play. Offensively, you can coach a system of football that can be productive. But defensively you have to have players."

Originally posted by Mankster:
I often want Offence drafted...but there is a quote from Bill Walsh that always rings in my head...

"The only way you can play defense is with athletes," Walsh told the Chicago Tribune. "If there's a flaw in your defense, it always shows up against the better teams. Offensively, you can manipulate it to take advantage of the men you have and stay clear of the men who don't have the ability to make the big play. Offensively, you can coach a system of football that can be productive. But defensively you have to have players."

That's basically what Kyle has said multiple times. You can scheme up offense, but you need legit athletes and talent on defense.