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Thoughts on the State of the Team: 2017 Outlook & Why Baalke is Responsible

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Originally posted by JeuSF49:
His idea of drafting for the future while we were stacked was fine, the only problem being that none of these picks panned out. I´ll include Hyde in that, due to the fact that he can´t stay healthy.

In my eyes he´s a bit like Matt Millen, Millen used to draft WR after WR high, Baalke drafts DB after DB high. Although these DBs are better than Millen´s WRs.

Millen did manage to draft Megatron...Baalke CB have made 1 prowbowl in total
Originally posted by MBNINER90266:
Key word you mentioned; rebuild. This should have been a reload, according to Baalke himself. Never should have had to rebuild unless you consistently miss.

Somewhat agreed...what I found with the best GM's and their best 6-year runs is that even if they were genuinely "reloading," as long as they still had their FQB, they'd hover around 6-9 wins and keep them afloat while they added more pieces in the draft and FA over several years. That didn't happen with Kaepernick for us in 2015 when the ENTIRE roster turned over (this was a unique situation; most teams gradually lose talent over several years; we lost it all in one off season --- big difference between us and other teams on reloading vs. rebuilding). Look what happened to Baltimore and Dallas (same "reload" timetable as us); the second they lost their QB, they were drafting right there with us and they had no excuses b/c they didn't turn over their entire roster in one off season like we did.

Now Dallas completed their OL, RB, has their ZWR & TE and found a QB like Seattle did. No surprise...they are off and "running." No magic formula there, is there?

Whether it's Nolan, Scott, Baalke, Gamble, Holmgren, etc. until they find their FQB and add him to a professional offensive scheme, we'll continue to cycle through GM's & HC's.
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 19, 2016 at 9:37 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Somewhat agreed...what I found with the best GM's and their best 6-year runs is that even if they were genuinely "reloading," as long as they still had their FQB, they'd hover around 6-9 wins and keep them afloat while they added more pieces in the draft and FA. That didn't happen with Kaepernick for us in 2015 when the ENTIRE roster turned over (this was a unique situation; most teams gradually lose talent over several year; we lost it all in one off season --- big difference between us and other teams). Look what happened to Baltimore and Dallas (same "reload" timetable as us); the second they lost their QB, they were drafting right there with us and they had no excuses b/c they didn't turn over their entire roster in one off season. Now Dallas completed their OL, RB, has their ZWR & TE and found a QB like Seattle did. No surprise...they are off and "running."

Whether it's Nolan, Scott, Baalke, Gamble, Holmgren, etc. until they find their FQB and add him to a professional scheme, we'll continue to cycle through GM's & HC's.

I'd agree with that as well. There's a lot of GMs who get away with rebuilding on the fly because they have a franchise QB keeping them afloat and respectable during the down years. Imagine the Saints without Drew Brees. Mickey Loomis would have been fired 5 years ago. Unfortunately we don't have that luxury and Baalke is responsible for that as well.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Somewhat agreed...what I found with the best GM's and their best 6-year runs is that even if they were genuinely "reloading," as long as they still had their FQB, they'd hover around 6-9 wins and keep them afloat while they added more pieces in the draft and FA. That didn't happen with Kaepernick for us in 2015 when the ENTIRE roster turned over (this was a unique situation; most teams gradually lose talent over several year; we lost it all in one off season --- big difference between us and other teams). Look what happened to Baltimore and Dallas (same "reload" timetable as us); the second they lost their QB, they were drafting right there with us and they had no excuses b/c they didn't turn over their entire roster in one off season. Now Dallas completed their OL, RB, has their ZWR & TE and found a QB like Seattle did. No surprise...they are off and "running."

Whether it's Nolan, Scott, Baalke, Gamble, Holmgren, etc. until they find their FQB and add him to a professional scheme, we'll continue to cycle through GM's & HC's.

I'd agree with that as well. There's a lot of GMs who get away with rebuilding on the fly because they have a franchise QB keeping them afloat and respectable during the down years. Imagine the Saints without Drew Brees. Mickey Loomis would have been fired 5 years ago. Unfortunately we don't have that luxury and Baalke is responsible for that as well.

Exactly. He should've started preparing -- at worst -- immediately after Colin's decline in 2014. In reality, we should've been trying to draft and develop a legitimate QB of the future in case anything happened to CK. You always need to have a contingency plan at the most critical positions.

My point is simple: when you make the wrong decisions, significant roster turnover will look much worse than it otherwise would.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Our future was set-up by what we had done in the past. Baalke hasn't drafted an legitimate impact player on offense in 5 years now. Hyde is good when healthy, but he has been hurt every year he's been on the team. A few solid defensive guys sprinkled in between simply isn't going to cut it when you've had 61 draft picks and years of free agency to land a difference maker. Over all this time, and with all these picks and money, the team has gotten worse and worse since the end of the 2013 season.

Our previous "rebuild" only appeared to take so long because we had talent that was led by terrible coaches (Nolan, Singletary). Harbaugh comes in and takes the team to Championship games right out of the gate. The Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 in one off-season from 2012 to 2013.

Right now we have both terrible coaching and terrible talent (just like when Erickson was here) and the results show.

I have no issues with moving on from Baalke for offense alone (hence why he's only interviewed offensive HC's). He knows his strength and it's defense. But we're also drastically underestimating the damage his FQB has caused this team. Had Kaepernick become the FQB we're missing now, none of this is an issue right now. We'd simply be a 7-8 win team ravaged with injuries again and just need to get players healthy and add a few more key play makers at the ZWR & pass rusher in 2017. Fans clamoring for Dak Prescott? Hello...that was supposed to be Kaepernick, right? Every HC and GM is tied to the success of their QB. I've provided the best 6-year runs of the best GM's from our era...all have that common theme. Every one. Baalke's best run too was during a time Alex Smith was breaking NFL records and continuing his ascent and Kaepernick catching the NFL off guard for two years. Baalke was not only part of that run, he played a significant role in building it with Nolan.

I'm not 100% sold yet on your last line. When you look at so miniscule snap counts of this new generation of players, the fact that the starting lineup is never the same from one week to another (even in-game), the rash of I.R.'s (21+17+9 already), I'm not in position to say there's no talent on this team. In fact, you may be hitting on one aspect as to why we're not "seeing" it yet...coaching.

Harbaugh is a perfect example. There was a minority of fans back then saying, "Hey guys...we have a lot of talent on this team. If we can just have a good draft and off season and get a quality HC and offensive and defensive schemes, we could challenge for the playoffs." That was a 6-win team.

So, I'm with you on concerns on the offense (although we've certainly got some pieces now with OL, depth, Smith, Kerely, Hyde, decent TE's, etc. Still need a QB & ZWR). That could warrant a change alone. But like you, I'm also greatly greatly concerned about coaching and scheme as well.

In short, until we get health, more key play makers at the 3 key parts, quality coaching/scheme, etc. we're not going anywhere.

NC, I respect your take on things even if I don't agree. My thought is this: There will always be injuries in this league. You can't expect your team to be fully healthy year after year. That's not realistic and to plan and acquire based off that? Well, that terrible roster management in my opinion. That's where the depth comes in, and that's where Baalke has failed. Bottom line is this team needs more playmakers, more talented depth, a QB, and better coaching (especially on defense). We need a lot, and outside of coaching, those things I mentioned are things Baalke needs to be accountable for.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Oct 19, 2016 at 10:03 AM ]
Originally posted by wailers15:
2017 Outlook: Easy "Still not good enough to compete"

Folks we lack so much talent on this team it's going to be at least 3-5 years until we are relevant again. Just the cold hard truth. With bad mgmt you get bad results. It's going to take a few more drafts to make this work.
Biggest issue behind lack of talent is lack of depth. This is being exposed this year. Look at the D-Line. Ouch! Never understood the love for Purcell & Dorsey is done. Dial is not up to the task. Seeing all this unfold, i'm starting to think this 3-4 is not working.
Our LB core is not good. I think Brooks is about done. I see too many plays where is is dogging it, and Harold...lmfao please. No depth here at all.

Not sure about Chip's offense. It's best suited for College ball. I do though see a ton of open WR's every game, it's just that our QB's fail to see them or get them the ball.
Need depth at RB, and we do not have a clear cut #1 WR. Most of these WR's on this team are #3 starters at best with Smith being the lone one. Our TE's are not that good.

We're just not that good of a football team & most of you need to realize it will take a while to get back to where we were. Could be a York issue...just think about it. Once they took over control from Eddie it went all down hill. Mooch..Later..Come on down Dennis, Mike & Mike lol. Jim we welcome you with not so open arms....then back to the norm of Jimmy T. Chip i don't think is a bad coach, but he needs to go back to college where his style best fits.

I hear this. I don't know (yet) if we really lack talent across the board but more at the three key pieces we've been missing since 2013...FQB (Kaepernick), ZWR (we've never had) & Pass rusher (Aldon). I think the new GM is going to find some talent here to build from and on top of:

Offensive Personnel: (Total Starters 2014 + 2015 Snap Counts) --- 25
QB: BIGGEST TEAM NEED
RB1: Carlos Hyde (553); WE NEED ANOTHER BRUISER
RB2: Mike Davis (126); Shaun Draughn
MTE: Vance McDonald (662)
; Je'Ron Hamm; COULD USE A TERRIFIC PASS CATCHER (ROUTE RUNNER)
TE: Garrett Celek (434); Blake Bell
X WR (LEFT): Torrey Smith (1,560); Quinton Patton
Y WR (SLOT): Jeremy Kerley (957); Keshawn Martin & Aaron Burbridge (Bruce Ellington)
Z WR (RIGHT): 2ND BIGGEST NEED; DeAndre Smelter, Rod Streater (Eric Rogers)
OL: Joe Staley, Zane Beadles, Daniel Kilgore, Marcus Martin, Joshua Garnett; Andrew Tiller, Trenton Brown; John Theus - COULD USE ANOTHER TOP T

Defensive Personnel: --- 25
RDE: DeForest Bucker (0); Tony Jerod Eddie
NT: Quinton Dial (960); Mike Purcell & Glenn Dorsey; (Ian Williams) - 2ND BIGGEST NEED (HEALTH)
LDE: Arik Armstead (375); Ronald Blair & Taylor Hart
WILL: Ahmad Brooks (1,282); Eli Harold - BIGGEST NEED ON DEFENSE
TED: Michael Wilhoite (1,560); Gerald Hodges (Ray-Ray Armstrong)
MIKE: Nick Bellore (7); Shayne Skov (Navarro Bowman) - 3RD BIGGEST NEED
SAM: Aaron Lynch (1,261); Tank Carradine
RCB: Jimmie Ward (972); Dontae Johnson
SLOT (S/CB): Keith Reaser (79); Will Redmond & JaCorey Shepherd (Chris Davis)
LCB: Rashard Robinson (0); Tramaine Brock
HYBRID S/ILB: Jaquiski Tartt (719)
FS: Eric Reid (1,919); Marcus Cromartie
SS: Antoine Bethea (1,406)

So in short, whoever the new GM is, over the next two-three years, on offense, he'll need to get a FQB & ZWR and some secondary needs (backup RB & T and top tier TE). On defense, he'll need to acquire a dominant pass rusher, ILB & NT (health).
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 19, 2016 at 10:23 AM ]
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Exactly. He should've started preparing -- at worst -- immediately after Colin's decline in 2014. In reality, we should've been trying to draft and develop a legitimate QB of the future in case anything happened to CK. You always need to have a contingency plan at the most critical positions.

My point is simple: when you make the wrong decisions, significant roster turnover will look much worse than it otherwise would.

100% agree with this...the second Kaepernick was showing signs of not becoming the FQB he was paid to be (2014), 2015 should have been a big target year for QB. And then again in 2016.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
I'd agree with that as well. There's a lot of GMs who get away with rebuilding on the fly because they have a franchise QB keeping them afloat and respectable during the down years. Imagine the Saints without Drew Brees. Mickey Loomis would have been fired 5 years ago. Unfortunately we don't have that luxury and Baalke is responsible for that as well.

Yup. No question. It was not ironic the number of "playoff teams" who were drafting with us last year. There was one common element to them...and us.
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
NC, I respect your take on things even if I don't agree. My thought is this: There will always be injuries in this league. You can't expect your team to be fully healthy year after year. That's not realistic and to plan and acquire based off that? Well, that terrible roster management in my opinion. That's where the depth comes in, and that's where Baalke has failed. Bottom line is this team needs more playmakers, more talented depth, a QB, and better coaching (especially on defense). We need a lot, and outside of coaching, those things I mentioned are things Baalke needs to be accountable for.

Likewise (this is turning into my favorite thread - civil discussions, no inciters or trolls, various intelligent POV's, etc.); keep it going!

That's not true, Seattle is never injured. LOL.

Sure, injuries happen...but they've been an epidemic for us. And the one thing you can't afford WHILE you're rebuilding is key injuries. Why? B/c you're already lacking in talent AND naturally, you're not going to have the depth yet either. This team for three straight years now have been DEVASTATED by critical injuries and they just don't stop, whether it's Harbaugh, Tomsula and now, Kelly at the helm...straight cursed. We've got the snap counts to prove it too (how little these players have been on the field - JoN talked about it yesterday as well; Kelly as well). It's no secret. It's no excuse either...it's next man up; but to add the amount of injuries we've had to any team, I guarantee you, outside of New England, there isn't a team in the NFL that wouldn't be sniffing 5-wins as a result.

No doubt, we agree on the needs. The only difference is when you expect them vs. me. I don't realistically expect them to have those yet (in year 2 and with only 1 stream of player acquisitions); you do. Fair enough.

The good news is that whoever the new GM will be is going to have a nice young foundation to build from. But he's still going to have to nail down the key positions on offense and defense or he'll be out too.
Nice young foundation? There is no FQB, or even a QB under contract for next year, no legitimate WRs(minus Smith), an OL with their best player getting up their in age making LT a priority soon, a 1st round G that is struggling, a soon to be hole at LG, a RB that is injury prone with no legit backups behind him, no NT that can stay healthy, huge holes at both MLB spots, huge hole at OLB and possibly needs at S since neither of the starting safeties can cover s**t and Tartt doesn't look like anything special.
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Nice young foundation? There is no FQB, or even a QB under contract for next year, no legitimate WRs(minus Smith), an OL with their best player getting up their in age making LT a priority soon, a 1st round G that is struggling, a soon to be hole at LG, a RB that is injury prone with no legit backups behind him, no NT that can stay healthy, huge holes at both MLB spots, huge hole at OLB and possibly needs at S since neither of the starting safeties can cover s**t and Tartt doesn't look like anything special.

Meaning, you need more draft capitol and bodies to build up the OL (8) & DL's (6-7) and the secondary (13) and LB's (8) vs. finding a key skill position (FQB, ZWR, pass rusher, etc.). It's still two-three more years to rebuild especially since we'll only be acquiring players via the draft.

I think any HC (Kelly), by the end of the year (all those added snap counts/growth) can work with our foundation at least but to make it all work to be competitive once they have the aforementioned parts.
[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 19, 2016 at 11:24 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
NC, I respect your take on things even if I don't agree. My thought is this: There will always be injuries in this league. You can't expect your team to be fully healthy year after year. That's not realistic and to plan and acquire based off that? Well, that terrible roster management in my opinion. That's where the depth comes in, and that's where Baalke has failed. Bottom line is this team needs more playmakers, more talented depth, a QB, and better coaching (especially on defense). We need a lot, and outside of coaching, those things I mentioned are things Baalke needs to be accountable for.

Likewise (this is turning into my favorite thread - civil discussions, no inciters or trolls, various intelligent POV's, etc.); keep it going!

That's not true, Seattle is never injured. LOL.

Sure, injuries happen...but they've been an epidemic for us. And the one thing you can't afford WHILE you're rebuilding is key injuries. Why? B/c you're already lacking in talent AND naturally, you're not going to have the depth yet either. This team for three straight years now have been DEVASTATED by critical injuries and they just don't stop, whether it's Harbaugh, Tomsula and now, Kelly at the helm...straight cursed. We've got the snap counts to prove it too (how little these players have been on the field - JoN talked about it yesterday as well; Kelly as well). It's no secret. It's no excuse either...it's next man up; but to add the amount of injuries we've had to any team, I guarantee you, outside of New England, there isn't a team in the NFL that wouldn't be sniffing 5-wins as a result.

No doubt, we agree on the needs. The only difference is when you expect them vs. me. I don't realistically expect them to have those yet (in year 2 and with only 1 stream of player acquisitions); you do. Fair enough.

The good news is that whoever the new GM will be is going to have a nice young foundation to build from. But he's still going to have to nail down the key positions on offense and defense or he'll be out too.

Honestly, I just expected Baalke to do his job as a GM and I don't feel he's done that. I don't feel like I'm expecting too much since I honestly was supporting him for much longer than most. I feel like if he had addressed what he should've, we wouldn't be in this position, and many wouldn't be calling as loudly for his firing. As far injuries and retirements, this was my take on it. The key points were:

* We had no quality backups for Bowman or Armstrong this year. Why? Borland and Willis retired before the draft in 2015 and Bowman was coming off that major injury still. Unbelievably, we didn't do ANYthing to help outside of a mid-season trade for Hodges (terrible). We were in perfect position to take several top ILBs in the 2nd round and we simply didn't do it.

* We had no quality backup for Kilgore in 2015 (and still don't today)

* We had no one to fill the void left by Boldin's departure and made no real effort to acquire anyone either (CFL FA, 6th round rook).

* We had no one developing behind Kaepernick in 2014 or 2015. Team has only spent one 6th and one 7th rounder on a QB in the past five years on QB. That's totally unacceptable, considering the immeasurable importance of the position.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Oct 19, 2016 at 11:37 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Nice young foundation? There is no FQB, or even a QB under contract for next year, no legitimate WRs(minus Smith), an OL with their best player getting up their in age making LT a priority soon, a 1st round G that is struggling, a soon to be hole at LG, a RB that is injury prone with no legit backups behind him, no NT that can stay healthy, huge holes at both MLB spots, huge hole at OLB and possibly needs at S since neither of the starting safeties can cover s**t and Tartt doesn't look like anything special.

Meaning, you need more draft capitol and bodies to build up the OL (8) & DL's (6-7) and the secondary (13) and LB's (8) vs. finding a key skill position (FQB, ZWR, pass rusher, etc.). It's still two-three more years to rebuild especially since we'll only be acquiring players via the draft.

I think any HC (Kelly), by the end of the year (all those added snap counts/growth) can work with our foundation at least but to make it all work to be competitive once they have the aforementioned parts.

The aforementioned parts should have already been addressed. So here we are, with these still glaring holes at key positions, to go along with quite a few other holes that need to be addressed. Totally unacceptable
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
The aforementioned parts should have already been addressed. So here we are, with these still glaring holes at key positions, to go along with quite a few other holes that need to be addressed. Totally unacceptable

This soon? OK...lots of ways to build a team. Obviously Trent was first addressing the OL/DL and defense and running game. Got a new HC, wait to be in position to fill in the skill positions WITH Kelly (QB, ZWR, TE, RB) later. We could have done with the Jaguars did...draft the QB and then put him behind a horrendous OL with no skill positions?
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Honestly, I just expected Baalke to do his job as a GM and I don't feel he's done that. I don't feel like I'm expecting too much since I honestly was supporting him for much longer than most. I feel like if he had addressed what he should've, we wouldn't be in this position, and many wouldn't be calling as loudly for his firing. As far injuries and retirements, this was my take on it. The key points were:

I agree with your details for sure (his outlined shortcomings). Great work there. I feel the same.

I just don't think fans realize how much this roster turned over in 2015 leaving just a handful of holdovers left (mostly crap too). I just don't see how any GM can build that quickly. That's all I'm saying.

Stay or leave, I do feel the next GM is going to have some nice building blocks (IF players ever get healthy and stay on the field). My greater concerns right now are 1) health as these young kids need snaps and 2) scheme (affected by health).

Until then, we'll never know if we have talent or not (like when we went from 6 wins to 13 overnight).
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