Colin Kaepernick Thread

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

It wasn't the media, it was harbaugh's fault for Kaeps slight regression

Any blame for a regressing QB on his QB coach? Or is everything on Harbaugh?

IMO there's plenty of blame to go around. Harbaugh, Roman, poor OL play, and I agree Kaps head seemed to get big after our SB appearance.

Originally posted by Homer:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
It wasn't the media, it was harbaugh's fault for Kaeps slight regression

Any blame for a regressing QB on his QB coach? Or is everything on Harbaugh?

IMO there's plenty of blame to go around. Harbaugh, Roman, poor OL play, and I agree Kaps head seemed to get big after our SB appearance.

The 49ers offense last year was to put in bluntly offensive.









Steve Young on 49ers: 'They looked broken'

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/11/03/steve-young-on-49ers-they-looked-broken/

My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

Originally posted by defenderDX:
My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

A 9.1 yards per attempt with a 62.1% completion is godly. It's like every completion is a chunk play.

Originally posted by ninerfan4life:
My prediction for Kap this year
4700 passing yards
28 tds
350 rushing yards
3 rushing tds

Originally posted by defenderDX:
My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

You may want to start here for predictions (PS: it's also highly entertaining) http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/182740-entire-froth-july-2015-spectacular/

NCommand here with the handoff from Niners816 out of the Q-formation! Seriously, where in the hell is Fropwns? Oh well, I'm running this bad-boy off-tackle. I bet you didn't see that one coming defense! In addition to the Logan foundations noted by Niners816, I also pulled in Geep's numbers as well. In all, we are looking hard into the Logan/Chryst Offensive Coordinator tenures (College, NFL Europe & NFL) and below you will see a 7-year aggregate average of offensive production.

These will be used as our 2015 baseline stats and projections --- compared to what we accomplished in 2014 (for reference):

Aggregate Annual (Game) Yard Averages: 2015 Baseline Projections --- 2014 Totals
Passing: 3,600 (225) --- 3,369 (211)
WR1 – 688 (43) --- 1,062 (66)
WR2 – 528 (33) --- 698 (44)
WR3 – 336 (21) --- 435 (27)
WR4 – 304 (19) --- 294 (18)
HB+3 – 672 (42) --- 368 (23)
TE1 – 384 (24) --- 245 (15)
Rushing: 2,448 (153) --- 2,176 (136)

Analysis: Looks about right, huh!?! For 2015, the WR1 leads the team in receiving yards. But what stands out in this aggregate Logan/Geep offensive production is the use of not 1, not 2 but 3 RB's in the passing game! We're already seeing a heavy emphasis on this in OTA's. Collectively, they are 2nd/3rd (to the WR2) in total reception yards, followed by WR3 and TE1 with WR4 bringing up the end. A TE2 does not seem to be utilized much in favor of a WR3 & WR4 with a nice distribution of receivers and balance of yards.

You'll see that the TOTAL passing yards and running yards won't be much different from what we've seen under HaRoman looking at the 2014 final results. BUT we should see a much better distribution of passes within it and much less predictability while remaining focused on the running game while we transition to a full time zone blocking scheme and away from power.

Where we'll probably see the potential for all these passing numbers to increase dramatically is with the talent we have here compared to what Logan/Geep had to work with during their tenures. Can we expect better total yards from RB receivers such as Hyde, Davis, Bush and Hunter (even Miller/Millard)? Most likely! How about a potential increase in yards with T.Smith, Boldin, Simpson, Ellington and Patton? How about V.Davis and McDonald/Bell benefiting underneath them now?

I'd say it's reasonable to assume that our 2015 projections are the bare minimum this offense will produce regarding the passing game (on par with the running game). While we can probably expect a modest increase on talent alone we'll remain conservative here. Another thing of note, is that QB Jim Harbaugh (1999 Chargers) under Geep was 4th on the team in rushing. It's also safe to assume Kaepernick might pick up a few extra yards on the ground as well adding to that rushing total.

So all in all, let's make our conservative 2015 predictions with OUR roster now that we have our baseline stats to work with:

2015 Receiving Projections: Total Yards (Per Game Average)
WR1 Boldin = 980 (61)
WR2 T.Smith = 724 (45)
WR3 Ellington = 434 (27)
WR4 Patton = 304 (19)
TE1 Davis = 420 (26)
HB+3 Bush/Hyde/Hunter = 544 (34)

2015 Kaepernick Projections: (From Niners816)
Attempts - 480
Completions - 300
Completion % - 62.5%
Yards - 3,500
TD's - 21
INT's - 10
QB Rating - 90.5
Rushing Yards - 700
Rushing TD's - 5

2015 Total Yards of Offensive Projections:
Receiving Yards: 3,500
Rushing Yards: 2,200

Game Average - Total Yards: 357 (less sack yards, penalties yards, etc.)

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/182740-entire-froth-july-2015-spectacular/#UEd7Fg80s4qCeg64.99

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Good points Pasodoc and I believe that's what they are talking about when mentioning WR training...scramble drills and set after the route routes would/will help greatly.

Here's a point of view from a Seattle writer about Kaepernick that CK has to disprove this year (from a link on the home page):

"Kaepernick was last in the NFC last season in fourth-quarter passer rating at 60.3, but his overall passer rating was 86.4. In other words, Kaepernick tends to make bad decisions with the game on the line. Four of his 10 interceptions last season came in the fourth quarter. His yards per play went from 7.4 in the first three quarters to 5.85 in the final quarter. His mechanics didn't change in the fourth quarter, but his thinking process did."

This is based on last year when the wheels were falling off the bus so it should not be seen as purely Kaepernick's mental level. Still troubling though.

When you are trying to win a game by the skin of your teeth (even in games that s/h been blowouts), one young QB tends to press...esp. when you ARE the only offense on the field in the 4Q. LOL

Originally posted by NCommand:
When you are trying to win a game by the skin of your teeth (even in games that s/h been blowouts), one young QB tends to press...esp. when you ARE the only offense on the field in the 4Q. LOL

True...but the one thing every QB has to show is the ability to calmly end games with great decision making. The QB can be hamstrung by playcalling or errors at other positions so it's hard to pin the blame on a guy until the end of his career. And even then some QBs have just been unlucky--Archie Manning comes to mind.

Kaepernick needs to be in an explosive offense to maximize his talents...not the go-slow-and-don't-blow-it offense of the Harbaugh/Roman era. With T Smith, VD, Bush, Hyde, Hunter, Boldin, Ellington and others this may be the year it all comes together for CK.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by NCommand:
When you are trying to win a game by the skin of your teeth (even in games that s/h been blowouts), one young QB tends to press...esp. when you ARE the only offense on the field in the 4Q. LOL

True...but the one thing every QB has to show is the ability to calmly end games with great decision making. The QB can be hamstrung by playcalling or errors at other positions so it's hard to pin the blame on a guy until the end of his career. And even then some QBs have just been unlucky--Archie Manning comes to mind.

Kaepernick needs to be in an explosive offense to maximize his talents...not the go-slow-and-don't-blow-it offense of the Harbaugh/Roman era. With T Smith, VD, Bush, Hyde, Hunter, Boldin, Ellington and others this may be the year it all comes together for CK.

Solid points. This is one area he needs to work on...perhaps be reeled in a bit. I'm hoping Gabbert, Logan, Geep, Tomsula, etc. can recognize this in-game.

"I would say it definitely keeps you on your toes," Gabbert said of the constant upheaval. "You're always at a certain point in time behind the eight ball."

"Having the familiarity at least, it's been refreshing," Gabbert said. "Geep is wonderful coach. He really knows how to relate to all the players, but especially the quarterbacks because he's been with us before. It's been a great transition."

"Really, I wanted to chase some consistency. That's big to me because I've never really had that before," Gabbert said. "Having some familiarity in this offense with the concepts and terminology, it's been a big difference. Before, I was always trying to learn and catch up to guys who'd been in the same offense for four or five years."

"There's always something to learn. There's always something to fix. There's always something to get better at," Gabbert said. "Whatever I can bring to the quarterback room, that's what I'm going to do. I'm always here to be a soundboard for Kap. Whatever I see on the sideline, I'm going to try to help him out because we talk about everything."

As for his relationship with new quarterbacks coach Steve Logan, Gabbert complimented Logan's football knowledge, which spans five decades.

"This offense is so multi-dimensional, so it's been great to have another voice in the room who has been a head coach, who's been a coordinator and who has coached quarterbacks," Gabbert said. "He really trusts us to play ball. When we go into the meeting room, he always asks us what we see. Then we just talk and diagnose the plays."


Good stuff from Gabbert: http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/Blaine-Gabbert-Cites-Stability-for-Return-to-49ers/32d607fb-5a4d-4dc2-b06c-850dc32ed3da

I think this release of his will do wonders for his game.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

A 9.1 yards per attempt with a 62.1% completion is godly. It's like every completion is a chunk play.

I made those predictions based off of watching interviews from Steve Logan and what they want to do as an offense. And that's chunk plays. With VD trying to have a bounce back year and refresh his rapport with Kap, and the addition of T.Smith, improved mechanics from Kap, it's very possible

Originally posted by defenderDX:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

A 9.1 yards per attempt with a 62.1% completion is godly. It's like every completion is a chunk play.

I made those predictions based off of watching interviews from Steve Logan and what they want to do as an offense. And that's chunk plays. With VD trying to have a bounce back year and refresh his rapport with Kap, and the addition of T.Smith, improved mechanics from Kap, it's very possible

I hope you are right. That would be a very explosive passing attack. I crunched the numbers and it would mean a 15 yard per completion average. That's bad ass.

Originally posted by defenderDX:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by defenderDX:
My prediction for Colin Kaepernick's 2015 season

3,832 passing yards
Avg. 9.1 YPA
24 TD Passes
61.2 Completion %
8 INTs'
440 rushing yards
2 rushing TD's
23 Sacks
1 Fumble

A 9.1 yards per attempt with a 62.1% completion is godly. It's like every completion is a chunk play.

I made those predictions based off of watching interviews from Steve Logan and what they want to do as an offense. And that's chunk plays. With VD trying to have a bounce back year and refresh his rapport with Kap, and the addition of T.Smith, improved mechanics from Kap, it's very possible

I like a lot of it. From our baseline projections, that's only 332 more yards in passing and that seems very realistic with the current personnel. Only a few more TD's with slightly less completion percentage which makes sense if we're shooting for more explosive plays, low INT rates still (may have more if we DO try more explosive plays), you have him rushing less with less TD's, etc. Yeah, the only things that may end up being off is the YPA at 9.1 and only 23 sacks. But in either case, THAT would be epic if they ended up being true!

Completion % - 62.5%
Yards - 3,500
TD's - 21
INT's - 10
QB Rating - 90.5
Rushing Yards - 700
Rushing TD's - 5

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Good points Pasodoc and I believe that's what they are talking about when mentioning WR training...scramble drills and set after the route routes would/will help greatly.

Here's a point of view from a Seattle writer about Kaepernick that CK has to disprove this year (from a link on the home page):

"Kaepernick was last in the NFC last season in fourth-quarter passer rating at 60.3, but his overall passer rating was 86.4. In other words, Kaepernick tends to make bad decisions with the game on the line. Four of his 10 interceptions last season came in the fourth quarter. His yards per play went from 7.4 in the first three quarters to 5.85 in the final quarter. His mechanics didn't change in the fourth quarter, but his thinking process did."

This is based on last year when the wheels were falling off the bus so it should not be seen as purely Kaepernick's mental level. Still troubling though.

I saw that and its a crock of sh*t. You're telling me that he's smart 3 quarters in a game but when the 4th quarter starts his brain automatically goes into turnover mode?

It's an unfortunate stat and hopefully one he addresses but Kap has proven to be "clutch" more times than someone who is a liability late in games.

Football is known as a game of inches and it applies big time to Kap.

I remember hearing before the Packers Divisional game in 2012 about how no way Kap could be ready for the big stage facing a team led by a vet like Aaron Rodgers...and certainly that game couldn't have started worse for the young kid...we all know how it ended though. Not only did he answer all those questions but he was arguably the biggest story during that round with what he did in that game. Some people want to point to our defense getting us to that SB but that defense was never the same after both Smiths got hurt. If we don't have Kap in that game we don't see Atlanta, let alone the SB.

And that SB...maybe we don't take our sweet ass time getting plays in and we get that "would've definitely won the game" play off? Maybe the ref actually call a flag rather than pretend the rules are different just because it's at the end of the game? Maybe the throw is a bit closer to Crab? This kid certainly did his part in that game and very few QBs would win a SB if their defense gives up that many points.

Or the NFC Championship game in 2013. Literally game of inches. That last pick, if Sherman doesn't stretch far enough that's a TD and Kap is a hero who is clutch...not a guy who makes turnovers in the 4th.

I don't buy it. He has his flaws and hopefully he's working on them but he's not some idiot who folds under pressure at the end of games.

Originally posted by genus49:
This kid certainly did his part in that game and very few QBs would win a SB if their defense gives up that many points.

Actually, no team has EVER won that game when the opposition put up 34 or more points.