Washington Redskins Coaches film analysis

Originally posted by NCommand:
I love that thl408 highlights what could have been done in an absolute ideal world from his POV and helps to highlight areas of growth (slow or quick), areas of weaknesses, etc. but I think we are focusing WAY too much on the QB here. The QB in THIS offense is nothing more than an extension of the running game. His sub-200 yards games, TOP, disribution, yards he gains on designed runs, scrambles, etc. are all part of that equation. If this was a pure WCO or spread offense, I can understand that...and that we should start to see much quicker progressions of growth (b/c that's the focus of the offense). That said, that's not what this offense is about. It's a first down-centric running team built off chunk-plays on 2nd and 3rd downs needing to go at least 8 yards on average. In short, these are much lower percentage opportunities esp. when you remove the middle of the field and short-yardage targets like we seem to do in THIS passing game as a whole. So why the extra focus on CK? I honestly, don't know what more he could have done to save this season. This isn't meant to say we still shouldn't focus on him going forward, but maybe more on the entire offense as a whole. Let's look at first downs since that is a HUGE issue for us. What's good, what's bad? Let's look at the running plays and diagnose the successes and failures there. Then, let's look at the complimentary passing game but keep it in context (Is it a 3rd and long? How much time did he have to throw?). Also, let's try to keep perspective here as well. We make a LOT of assumptions regarding the amount of control CK really has in the huddle and pre-snap. Let's not assume that CK is his own OC here and has all the freedom in the world to run this offense 100% of the time.

That just doesn't jive at all with quotes like these:

Alex Smith - His last moments in a 49ers uniform were spent standing on the Superdome sideline watching the final futile plays. "I certainly think if we had to do it all over again we'd call some different plays. We were getting pressure the entire time and we didnt call pressure beaters." Smith said the offensive line and running backs are still frustrated they werent given the chance to win the game. And he is still perplexed by the play-calling." On the last play I was on the sideline screaming for a timeout because we had called a play that had no pressure answer. Colin (Kaepernick) did the best he could with the signal and the throw. I'm sure if the coaches had it to do over again they'd call something with a better pressure answer." http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/Kansas-City-puts-smile-on-Alex-Smith-s-face-4891283.php#page-2

MaioccoCSN - Jim Harbaugh confirmed what Vernon Davis said - #49ers receivers don't adjust routes based on down/distance because it throws off timing.
MaioccoCSN - On two third-down passes that came up short, #49ers TE Vernon Davis said he ran the routes that were drawn up.
Jim Harbaugh - We are trying to execute the play and catch and if we call the route or play thats going to be caught before the sticks then you are hoping for the run after catch. Both of those were pretty darn close right at the sticks.

Staley's leaked comment about the broken "scheme."

Q: "The sequence at the end of the first half was interesting. Did you figure out what was going to happen there? That play was pretty interesting. Can you describe that whole business there?
A from CK: "We get the play calls when we get the play calls and we do what we can with them."
Q: Did you like that play call?
A: "It worked."
http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/11/24/7274197/49ers-vs-washington-transcripts-jim-harbaugh-players-discuss-win

Just some constructive criticism going forward...take it or leave it.

I think focusing on first downs is misleading. As stated by various posters. 2nd down analaysis fails to take into account 1st down production and only takes into account 1st down unproductive plays. By definition (as well stated by the poster previously) a first down that gets a first down is *ignored.* Now I'm not saying looking at first downs is useless - but what I am saying is that it's misleading.

What is better to focus on is 3rd down conversion rate. 3rd down conversion rate is, I think, a much better stat to look at because that's the money down. If you don't convert 3rd down you give up the ball. 1st down plays - you still have 2nd and 3rd to convert. Vertical offenses use the 1st and 2nd downs for (as you well stated) chunk plays or knock out blows. If they don't get that knockout blow, they rely on 2nd down runs to get to a makable 3rd down and distance situation. I.e. 3rd &5 or 3rd and 6 yards to go. Much more makable than 3rd and 10. So again, focusing on 2nd downs is misleading. It's not good football analysis, in my opinion, given the nature of this vertical offense. 3rd down is I think a much better stat to look at, but no *one* stat is the perfect stat that captures the whole game.

Originally posted by midrdan:
Why not take the 10 yard gain by throwing to a wide open Gore in the flat?

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:
Hindsight

No. Crabs was open. He's just slow as s**t.

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Why not take the 10 yard gain by throwing to a wide open Gore in the flat?

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:

Hindsight

No. Crabs was open. He's just slow as s**t.

Agreed

Can someone explain what happened here?

Great Job by all that contribute to this posts! Happy Thanks Giving to you all and may the 49ers beat up the Seahawks!

Originally posted by znk916:
Can someone explain what happened here?

Vernon working on his brand.

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by znk916:
Can someone explain what happened here?

Vernon working on his brand.

Screams soft on so many levels. Even gets up slow even though the play is not over yet.

Originally posted by BoldRedandGold:

Originally posted by DeUh:

Originally posted by znk916:
Can someone explain what happened here?

Vernon working on his brand.

Screams soft on so many levels. Even gets up slow even though the play is not over yet.

Hindsight says Vernon should have cut blocked him. I dunno, looks like he's lost confidence, strength, or the opposing player really smelled the run and knew where the play was going. Not surprising considering the 2nd string QB was Colt McColy - who knows all our audibles and plays.

Originally posted by Adusoron:

Originally posted by JAR93:
Thl408, I want to start off by saying thank you very much for these breakdowns and thank you for answering my question about Kap. I really appreciate your analysis. I also want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving.


I have another question for you and it relates a little bit to what Steve Young had to say about mobile/talented QBs needing to stay in the pocket to learn the basic and fundamental aspects of quarterbacking. Greg Cosell recently published an article about RG3 due to his recent struggles and he talked about RG3 and Cam Newton being individuals that are talented but are somewhat unable to execute the basic aspects of quarterbacking because they don't have great accuracy, footwork, and they can't truly anticipate throws and understand certain route concepts and defensive looks. In your first comment you said that you felt that RG3 was terrible and he maybe going down the Mike Vick route and RG3 has since been benched for a journeyman in Colt McCoy. All of this kinda traces back to Kap because he is alot similar to these guys in terms of talent. My question is: do you think Kap is further along than these guys in terms of the little things necessary to succeed at the QB position so that if he can no longer run like a RG3 or he is somewhat injured like a Cam Newton and he can't simply rely on his legs/physical talent that he will be successful. When you watched RG3 on the film of this game, the little things that he didn't do that led you to the conclusion of he just isn't very good; Does Kap do those things? I know that there are things he needs to improve upon and you have done an excellent job of breaking them down but the things that have been going on with Cam Newton and RG3 and the recent Steve Young interview made me wonder about Kap due to the similarities and it got me thinking about whether or not he does the little things well enough so that if he at any point loses his physics gifts just how successful would he be?

Here is a link of the Greg Cosell article if you would like to read it: https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/sports/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-film-review--robert-griffin-iii-s-issues-214738329.html?orig_host_hdr=sports.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-US

Thanks for everything and Happy Thanksgiving.

I will let Thl give the full answer based upon his film study, but based upon what I've seen on TV and on various All-22 analytical pieces and listening to Greg Cosell, Kap is much, much further along than RG3, and is playing in the pocket more consistently than Wilson and Newton. Kap has zero rushing TDs for a reason - he and the coaches are making a concerted effort to develop his passing game experience and it's slowly paying off. Even some of Kap's most "confirmation bias" prone critics are making small concessions about his play in the pocket. (It's hard to change a national narrative in the media - and the narrative has been that Colin can't play from the pocket because he's a "1-Read" QB.) I watched Kap's 2013 games several times and his play in the pocket and improvement looking through reads is much, much better this year. He also slides up in the pocket to avoid pressure, and is hesitant to run (maybe even too hesitant at times). He definitely has things to work on, and needs to be more consistent, but he's getting there slowly. Ed Werder at ESPN had a very interesting tweet after the loss at home to the Rams:

Ed Werder ✔ @Edwerderespn
One #NFL head coach told me he agrees with #49ers emphasis on more fully developing @Kaepernick7 passing skills in their offense



Ed also replied to a tweeter in saying that the HC was not from the NFC West so it was not a "troll job" by Pete Carroll or something.

RG3 is no comparison because the guy's basic footwork and progression reading/pocket movement skills are as "remedial" as Trent Dilfer errantly stated about Kaepernick last year. Cosell said it best. RG3 literally needs to go back to QB 101 and I'm sure he drove Jay Gruden so crazy that it's why he's been benched and probably is on his way out of Washington.

Newton received a ton of praise from film guys like Cosell last year for his pocket play. However, Newton's play has really regressed from last year. Some of that is the fault of a compromised surrounding cast, and it is possible Newton is also injured. But that said, Newton is making terrible reads, throwing the ball into double coverage, and dropping his eyes from the field to look at the rush in the backfield. I watched him closely in his losses to the Hawks and the Eagles and he was painful to watch.

Wilson is a strange case. I think the media has long overrated him because the Seahawks' offensive scheme is designed to allow Wilson to make easy reads and throws, or rely on his play action or zone read abilities built off their offenses' true MVP, Marshawn Lynch. He can progress through reads, but to my eye, he is rarely throwing the ball except to a wide open (blown coverage) receiver, a quick bubble screen (1-read play), or a playaction rollout to a TE rolling the same way into the flat. When he does drop back, he almost seems to freeze as if he's staring at one person until the DEs start to get close. Then he starts the scramble drill in hopes he can break the outside contain, or he can run around long enough for a WR to finally shake coverage. Greg Cosell said that in watching Seahawk film, Wilson's legs are being used far more than their pass game because their pass game isn't very good at all. Hawk homers will complain about their OL, or their WRs, or something else, but the plain fact is that Wilson isn't a very good pocket player despite the national narratives. Good pocket players can usually muster some passing offense by progressing through reads even with mediocre WRs. Wilson is a playground player and their OC has made his living on helping Wilson thrive in some organized chaos.

Adusoron said it well and I'll just piggy back off what he said regarding RG3. I don't watch Cam enough to make an assessment so I won't go there. Kap is definitely further along as a pocket QB than RG3 based on what I saw last Sunday. However, that really isn't saying much. RG3 has a bad habit of locking onto WRs and not understanding when to go away from them. I use the term 'red light' a lot in my play analysis. What I mean is how quickly a QB can determine that the WR is not open. RG3 does not do this quick enough. He's actually very very bad at it. One read QB, tunnel vision, all terms that we have heard to describe that. What it boils down to is that he doesn't trust what he sees.

There are times Kap does those things, but nothing like RG3. As Kap gains more experience, things will become instinctual. Kap is in a good situation because his head coach is a decent NFL QB. I think that goes a long way towards Kap's development.

I'm glad to see that tweet by Ed Werder. It's not that it revealed something we didn't know was going on, but it's nice to hear it from an NFL coach. I agree with jonnydel that the 49ers could simplify things for Kap and that it would probably lead to better gains in the short term, but in the long term, it would stunt his development and lower his ceiling. I think what jonnydel means is having more 'designed throws'. Throws where a pre-determined target is built into the playdesign and Kap just gets it to that WR. The 49ers are willing to go through the growing pains with Kap as he becomes re-wired to think differently than he ever has.

Originally posted by Giedi:
I think focusing on first downs is misleading. As stated by various posters. 2nd down analaysis fails to take into account 1st down production and only takes into account 1st down unproductive plays. By definition (as well stated by the poster previously) a first down that gets a first down is *ignored.* Now I'm not saying looking at first downs is useless - but what I am saying is that it's misleading.

What is better to focus on is 3rd down conversion rate. 3rd down conversion rate is, I think, a much better stat to look at because that's the money down. If you don't convert 3rd down you give up the ball. 1st down plays - you still have 2nd and 3rd to convert. Vertical offenses use the 1st and 2nd downs for (as you well stated) chunk plays or knock out blows. If they don't get that knockout blow, they rely on 2nd down runs to get to a makable 3rd down and distance situation. I.e. 3rd &5 or 3rd and 6 yards to go. Much more makable than 3rd and 10. So again, focusing on 2nd downs is misleading. It's not good football analysis, in my opinion, given the nature of this vertical offense. 3rd down is I think a much better stat to look at, but no *one* stat is the perfect stat that captures the whole game.

You obviously didn't spend a second reading any of my previous posts on this topic and ignored the other 95% of this my quoted OP as well. Just keep bowing down. j/k.

Other than that, have a wonderful holiday w/e...hopefully, we'll have even MORE to be thankful for come tomorrow night!

Go Niners!

Here are a few plays where RG3 shows how he locks into WRs and/or is hesitant to pull the trigger because he isn't sure of what he sees. This play was cut up in post#42, but here it is from the QB's point of view.

RG3 doesn't have much time to make a decision here, but from looking at his head movement in the pocket, it's obvious he never moves away from his first read.
1Q 3rd & 8
WAS: 3 streaks to attack the cover1 safety.
49ers: cover1
Right at the start RG3 can see that both CBs are playing with a slight cushion.


As RG3 takes the snap and drops back he should see that both CBs near the top of the screen use bail technique to help combat any vertical routes, which is exactly what the WRs are running.


RG3 finishes his dropback and is still seen looking to his right as both WRs try to beat the bailing CBs.


RG3 hitch steps up into the pocket and is still seen looking at one of the WRs near the sidelines. All the while the TE is about to flash into a huge open area.


It's hard to fault RG3 too much here because there was pressure coming into his face. What I would be more concerned about, if I was a Skin fan, is that he never moved away from his primary read. There was a chance he could have targeted the route coming into the middle of the field had he red lighted the two streaking WRs near the sideline based on the technique of the bailing CBs.


Watch his head as he never moves off the two WRs near the sideline. The faster he red lights his first read, the better a chance he gives himself to find his TE. He still may not have gotten a throw off, but he never gave himself a chance to.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Adusoron:

Originally posted by JAR93:
Thl408, I want to start off by saying thank you very much for these breakdowns and thank you for answering my question about Kap. I really appreciate your analysis. I also want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving.


I have another question for you and it relates a little bit to what Steve Young had to say about mobile/talented QBs needing to stay in the pocket to learn the basic and fundamental aspects of quarterbacking. Greg Cosell recently published an article about RG3 due to his recent struggles and he talked about RG3 and Cam Newton being individuals that are talented but are somewhat unable to execute the basic aspects of quarterbacking because they don't have great accuracy, footwork, and they can't truly anticipate throws and understand certain route concepts and defensive looks. In your first comment you said that you felt that RG3 was terrible and he maybe going down the Mike Vick route and RG3 has since been benched for a journeyman in Colt McCoy. All of this kinda traces back to Kap because he is alot similar to these guys in terms of talent. My question is: do you think Kap is further along than these guys in terms of the little things necessary to succeed at the QB position so that if he can no longer run like a RG3 or he is somewhat injured like a Cam Newton and he can't simply rely on his legs/physical talent that he will be successful. When you watched RG3 on the film of this game, the little things that he didn't do that led you to the conclusion of he just isn't very good; Does Kap do those things? I know that there are things he needs to improve upon and you have done an excellent job of breaking them down but the things that have been going on with Cam Newton and RG3 and the recent Steve Young interview made me wonder about Kap due to the similarities and it got me thinking about whether or not he does the little things well enough so that if he at any point loses his physics gifts just how successful would he be?

Here is a link of the Greg Cosell article if you would like to read it: https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/sports/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-film-review--robert-griffin-iii-s-issues-214738329.html?orig_host_hdr=sports.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-US

Thanks for everything and Happy Thanksgiving.

I will let Thl give the full answer based upon his film study, but based upon what I've seen on TV and on various All-22 analytical pieces and listening to Greg Cosell, Kap is much, much further along than RG3, and is playing in the pocket more consistently than Wilson and Newton. Kap has zero rushing TDs for a reason - he and the coaches are making a concerted effort to develop his passing game experience and it's slowly paying off. Even some of Kap's most "confirmation bias" prone critics are making small concessions about his play in the pocket. (It's hard to change a national narrative in the media - and the narrative has been that Colin can't play from the pocket because he's a "1-Read" QB.) I watched Kap's 2013 games several times and his play in the pocket and improvement looking through reads is much, much better this year. He also slides up in the pocket to avoid pressure, and is hesitant to run (maybe even too hesitant at times). He definitely has things to work on, and needs to be more consistent, but he's getting there slowly. Ed Werder at ESPN had a very interesting tweet after the loss at home to the Rams:

Ed Werder ✔ @Edwerderespn
One #NFL head coach told me he agrees with #49ers emphasis on more fully developing @Kaepernick7 passing skills in their offense



Ed also replied to a tweeter in saying that the HC was not from the NFC West so it was not a "troll job" by Pete Carroll or something.

RG3 is no comparison because the guy's basic footwork and progression reading/pocket movement skills are as "remedial" as Trent Dilfer errantly stated about Kaepernick last year. Cosell said it best. RG3 literally needs to go back to QB 101 and I'm sure he drove Jay Gruden so crazy that it's why he's been benched and probably is on his way out of Washington.

Newton received a ton of praise from film guys like Cosell last year for his pocket play. However, Newton's play has really regressed from last year. Some of that is the fault of a compromised surrounding cast, and it is possible Newton is also injured. But that said, Newton is making terrible reads, throwing the ball into double coverage, and dropping his eyes from the field to look at the rush in the backfield. I watched him closely in his losses to the Hawks and the Eagles and he was painful to watch.

Wilson is a strange case. I think the media has long overrated him because the Seahawks' offensive scheme is designed to allow Wilson to make easy reads and throws, or rely on his play action or zone read abilities built off their offenses' true MVP, Marshawn Lynch. He can progress through reads, but to my eye, he is rarely throwing the ball except to a wide open (blown coverage) receiver, a quick bubble screen (1-read play), or a playaction rollout to a TE rolling the same way into the flat. When he does drop back, he almost seems to freeze as if he's staring at one person until the DEs start to get close. Then he starts the scramble drill in hopes he can break the outside contain, or he can run around long enough for a WR to finally shake coverage. Greg Cosell said that in watching Seahawk film, Wilson's legs are being used far more than their pass game because their pass game isn't very good at all. Hawk homers will complain about their OL, or their WRs, or something else, but the plain fact is that Wilson isn't a very good pocket player despite the national narratives. Good pocket players can usually muster some passing offense by progressing through reads even with mediocre WRs. Wilson is a playground player and their OC has made his living on helping Wilson thrive in some organized chaos.

Adusoron said it well and I'll just piggy back off what he said regarding RG3. I don't watch Cam enough to make an assessment so I won't go there. Kap is definitely further along as a pocket QB than RG3 based on what I saw last Sunday. However, that really isn't saying much. RG3 has a bad habit of locking onto WRs and not understanding when to go away from them. I use the term 'red light' a lot in my play analysis. What I mean is how quickly a QB can determine that the WR is not open. RG3 does not do this quick enough. He's actually very very bad at it. One read QB, tunnel vision, all terms that we have heard to describe that. What it boils down to is that he doesn't trust what he sees.

There are times Kap does those things, but nothing like RG3. As Kap gains more experience, things will become instinctual. Kap is in a good situation because his head coach is a decent NFL QB. I think that goes a long way towards Kap's development.

I'm glad to see that tweet by Ed Werder. It's not that it revealed something we didn't know was going on, but it's nice to hear it from an NFL coach. I agree with jonnydel that the 49ers could simplify things for Kap and that it would probably lead to better gains in the short term, but in the long term, it would stunt his development and lower his ceiling. I think what jonnydel means is having more 'designed throws'. Throws where a pre-determined target is built into the playdesign and Kap just gets it to that WR. The 49ers are willing to go through the growing pains with Kap as he becomes re-wired to think differently than he ever has.

In the Thursday game, I'll be looking to see if Colin audibles out of cover zero defensive looks. I'm looking forward to him taking more checkdowns if nothing deep is open. Where I think he'll have problems till the end of the season is in the red zone. It takes confident very precise throws in the red zone for success there to happen, and the windows are small. Seadderall's personnel also will make those windows even smaller. Hopefully the pass protection gives him more than 2 seconds to throw a pass if it's in the red zone.

I"m betting a lot of Kaepernick haters will have much more ammunition after this game to keep calling Kaepernick a remedial QB. He's facing the number 1 defense in the NFL and any offense will look bad or inconsistent when facing that kind of talent.

With Vance out and VD still struggling, they have used Bruce Miller to fill in the gaps on their short yardage passing. I think that continues. VD will be doubled, so what else will be new? I hope Roman takes advantage of that in the mid range passing and get the WR free. The redzone will be a different animal and I'll be satisfied with FG's in this game. I just think Seadderall's defense is that good and will force that issue. I *hope* Colin can score a TD (18 straight games so far) but Seadderall's Defense isn't a normal defense with all the PED's they take on top of them being terrific athletes.

Re: RG3, good stuff Thl408. Priceless stufff there man!

Originally posted by znk916:
Can someone explain what happened here?

This one is all about Vernon Davis and his -7.1 PFF blocking rating. The rookie, Trent Murphy, just owns him here. They're about the same weight and since Murphy is 6-5, Davis should, by all accounts, have leverage on him. But Murphy just basically throws Davis back into Iupati and McDonald and ruins their blocking path. Davis just allows Murphy to blow up the play.

I know a lot of people will object to this, but IMO, Vernon Davis is a consistent reason why the offense is struggling this year. It's not just the drops or the poor route running. His blocking, which has been a strong suit, just isn't there.

More RG3

1Q 2nd & 13

WAS: 3 vertical routes to attack the cover 1 safety
49ers: Looks like cover6 with Reid as the cover2 safety.



RG3 hits the top of his dropback (shot gun snap + 5 step dropback) and is looking left. Reid quickly gains depth.


After two hitch steps, RG3 winds up to throw. He needs to read what Reid is doing as two vertical routes attack him. Whichever way Reid leans towards, throw it to the other WR. At his moment in time, Reid is in good position to make this a tough decision for RG3. RG3 has time in the pocket to make it impossible for Reid to be correct in which WR to cover.


RG3 targtes DJax. Incomplete. He had the inside WR breaking towards open field.