Washington Redskins Coaches film analysis

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by All22:
Guys, I'm working on getting the coaches film up as right now and it should be done in a few hours. I'll probably also put up the coaches film from the Cardinals @ Seahawks game so we can do some scouting as well. I hope to have it up on a video site by tonight.

WRT the 2nd down analysis, the data seems a bit skewed by the fact that we had 27 first downs and only 21 second downs. So on 6 first downs the play resulted in another first down (by gaining 10+ yards or defensive holding penalty etc) or we scored a touchdown yet those plays aren't included in the 2nd down stat that makes the claim that we are on average going backwards on first down.

TO's, penalties, FG's, etc. Not sure why but I copied/pasted directly from the Play-By-Play. Perhaps an extra set of eyes could help cross-reference to ensure I didn't miss anything? http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400554365&period=0

I checked again...seems right/penalties/FG's 1st down, etc.
1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 41 (13:25) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 48 for 7 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 6 at WSH 30 (11:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at WAS 3. 3-yds YAC P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
2nd and 6 at SF 9 (7:38) C.Hyde left tackle to SF 11 for 2 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 7 at SF 24 (5:28) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 44 for 20 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF 26. 18-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (4:38) C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 42, and recovers at SF 42. C.Kaepernick to SF 42 for no gain (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
2nd and 9 at SF 47 (1:06) F.Gore up the middle to SF 49 for 2 yards (J.Hatcher).
1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
2nd and 9 at SF 6 (12:44) F.Gore up the middle to SF 14 for 8 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 16 (4:51) F.Gore up the middle to SF 19 for 3 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 28 (3:30) C.Kaepernick scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 5 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 13 at SF 30 (2:03) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to B.Miller to SF 42 for 12 yards (T.Porter). Caught at SF 38. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (1:30) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 40 for -4 yards (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
2nd and 7 at SF 28 (14:15) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right to S.Johnson (B.Breeland) [T.Murphy].
1st and 10 at SF 10 (11:37) C.Kaepernick pass short right to V.Davis to SF 26 for 16 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF21. 5-yds YAC PENALTY on SF-A.Boone, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10 - No Play.
1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy). WAS-T.Porter was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd and 15 at SF 5 (10:35) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 13 for 8 yards (G.Ducre). Caught at SF9. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
2nd and 7 at SF 11 (6:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 18 for 7 yards (P.Riley; R.Kerrigan). Officials to measure for 1st Down. Caught at SF 15. 3-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
2nd and 10 at SF 18 (6:06) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 27 for 9 yards (B.Breeland; P.Riley). WAS-B.Breeland was injured during the play. Caught at SF 24. 3-ds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
2nd and 10 at SF 27 (:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short middle to M.Crabtree to SF 32 for 5 yards (K.Robinson). 0-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yards of loose ball yardage
1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
2nd and 16 at SF 19 (6:51) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin pushed ob at SF 29 for 10 yards (G.Ducre).
1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
2nd and 5 at WSH 14 (3:47) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin to WAS 4 for 10 yards (P.Riley). Caught at WAS 7. 3-yds YAC
1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 3 at SF 29 (1:52) C.Hyde right guard to SF 29 for no gain (J.Jenkins).
1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.
2nd and 8 at WSH 8 (:26) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 9 for -1 yards.

I'd like to help clearing this statistics.

Just seeking for 2nd downs on the play-by-play is absolutely misleading. If a team on 1st down gains a new 1st down, you have no 2nd down, so all good 1st down plays are lost! That's why the numbers are so ugly (15 of the 21 times, 71%, we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go). And the average to go taking only 2nd and >7 is obviously at least 8 yards to go...

I used the same method for GB@MIN (I just chose GB to check a good team with a great QB/offense).
For GB, in that game, in 13 of the 18 2nd downs, 72%, they had >7 yards to go averaging 11.1 yards to go.
Their numbers are worst than ours, but...

If you want to see 1st production, seek for 1st downs on the play-by-play!
I'll show the details later on the post, first I show the results:

SF vs WAS
26 total first down plays
21 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
10 plays (48%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
88 total yards, 4.2 yards on average on first down (44 of those 88 yards came on a single play, so the average is misleading)
32 yards on 12 run plays, 2.7 on average
56 yards on 9 pass plays, 6.2 on average
1 first down

GB at MIN
28 total first down plays
24 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
11 plays (46%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
141 total yards, 5.9 yards on average on first down
63 yards on 13 run plays, 4.8 on average
78 yards on 11 pass plays, 7.1 on average
7 first downs

They were a lot better than us on first down, mainly because they got 7 first downs compared to 1 and our yard per play average is inflated by one play.


For the detail, these are the 1st downs of SF vs WAS (excluding the 1st downs with offensive penalties that causes the repetition of 1st down, i.e. play number 15 is a 1st and 15, because of a false start on the preceding play, not listed):

01. 1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
02. 1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
03. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
04. 1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
05. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
06. 1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
07. 1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
08. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
09. 1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
10. 1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
11. 1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
12. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
13. 1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
14. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
15. 1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy). WAS-T.Porter was injured during the play. He is Out.
16. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
17. 1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
18. 1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
19. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
20. 1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yds of loose ball yardage
21. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
22. 1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
23. 1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
24. 1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
25. 1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
26. 1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.

So the yards on first down are (an 'x' at the start of the line means that I excluded that play from the statistics):
01. 0 (incomplete pass)
02. 4 (run)
03. 4 (run)
04. 3 (run)
05. 0 (incomplete pass)
06. 1 (run)
x07. FUMBLE
08. 1 (run)
09. 9 (pass)
10. 9 (pass)
11. -3 (run)
12. 0 (incomplete pass)
x13. FG
14. 3 (run)
15. 0 (run)
x16. INT
17. 3 (run)
18. 0 (incomplete pass)
19. 0 (incomplete pass)
x20. FUMBLE
21. -6 (sack)
22. 44 (pass, 29 yards reception + 15 for unnecessary roughness)
23. 5 (run)
24. 4 (run, TD)
25. 7 (run)
x26. KNEEL

Here ya go:
http://all22films.blogspot.com/2014/11/week-12-was-redskins-sf-49ers.html

That game left me in shock. We had a pass rush, Robert Griffin didn't do squat all day and threw for less than 100 yards. The Redskins barely had over 200 yards total offense. Defense holds the Redskins to 13 points and makes their offense look like the 2004 49ers offense. Kaepernick has a decent game his one interception was the equivalent of a punt. We are at home against a bottom feeder that has a lot of turmoil, all that and we have to convert a 4th down at our own 35 to score a late TD that gives us a heart attack inducing 4 point win. The whole thing makes no sense to me, sure glad I don't really bet football any more I would have lost a small fortune. I thought the 49ers would win by 3 tds+.

Originally posted by BobS:
That game left me in shock. We had a pass rush, Robert Griffin didn't do squat all day and threw for less than 100 yards. The Redskins barely had over 200 yards total offense. Defense holds the Redskins to 13 points and makes their offense look like the 2004 49ers offense. Kaepernick has a decent game his one interception was the equivalent of a punt. We are at home against a bottom feeder that has a lot of turmoil, all that and we have to convert a 4th down at our own 35 to score a late TD that gives us a heart attack inducing 4 point win. The whole thing makes no sense to me, sure glad I don't really bet football any more I would have lost a small fortune. I thought the 49ers would win by 3 tds+.

This one was on the mistakes. 2 fumbles.,an interference induced interception, dropped passes, boone downfield negating a big play- name it. That and the redskins ran the ball very well. As good as Borland is he didn't play the stretch run very well which is the bread and butter of the skins. I don't know if he saw it much in college and Wilhoite didn't play it well either. This is 1 time where no Bowman and Willis really hurt us.No one can figure out what is wron gwith Vernon Davis.

Originally posted by jrice80:
I'd like to help clearing this statistics.

Just seeking for 2nd downs on the play-by-play is absolutely misleading. If a team on 1st down gains a new 1st down, you have no 2nd down, so all good 1st down plays are lost! That's why the numbers are so ugly (15 of the 21 times, 71%, we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go). And the average to go taking only 2nd and >7 is obviously at least 8 yards to go...

I used the same method for GB@MIN (I just chose GB to check a good team with a great QB/offense).
For GB, in that game, in 13 of the 18 2nd downs, 72%, they had >7 yards to go averaging 11.1 yards to go.
Their numbers are worst than ours, but...

If you want to see 1st production, seek for 1st downs on the play-by-play!
I'll show the details later on the post, first I show the results:

SF vs WAS
26 total first down plays
21 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
10 plays (48%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
88 total yards, 4.2 yards on average on first down (44 of those 88 yards came on a single play, so the average is misleading)
32 yards on 12 run plays, 2.7 on average
56 yards on 9 pass plays, 6.2 on average
1 first down

GB at MIN
28 total first down plays
24 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
11 plays (46%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
141 total yards, 5.9 yards on average on first down
63 yards on 13 run plays, 4.8 on average
78 yards on 11 pass plays, 7.1 on average
7 first downs

They were a lot better than us on first down, mainly because they got 7 first downs compared to 1 and our yard per play average is inflated by one play.


For the detail, these are the 1st downs of SF vs WAS (excluding the 1st downs with offensive penalties that causes the repetition of 1st down, i.e. play number 15 is a 1st and 15, because of a false start on the preceding play, not listed):

01. 1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
02. 1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
03. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
04. 1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
05. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
06. 1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
07. 1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
08. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
09. 1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
10. 1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
11. 1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
12. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
13. 1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
14. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
15. 1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy). WAS-T.Porter was injured during the play. He is Out.
16. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
17. 1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
18. 1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
19. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
20. 1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yds of loose ball yardage
21. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
22. 1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
23. 1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
24. 1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
25. 1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
26. 1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.

So the yards on first down are (an 'x' at the start of the line means that I excluded that play from the statistics):
01. 0 (incomplete pass)
02. 4 (run)
03. 4 (run)
04. 3 (run)
05. 0 (incomplete pass)
06. 1 (run)
x07. FUMBLE
08. 1 (run)
09. 9 (pass)
10. 9 (pass)
11. -3 (run)
12. 0 (incomplete pass)
x13. FG
14. 3 (run)
15. 0 (run)
x16. INT
17. 3 (run)
18. 0 (incomplete pass)
19. 0 (incomplete pass)
x20. FUMBLE
21. -6 (sack)
22. 44 (pass, 29 yards reception + 15 for unnecessary roughness)
23. 5 (run)
24. 4 (run, TD)
25. 7 (run)
x26. KNEEL

So, you agree that we are a lot worse than GB on 1st down in your comparison.

I think that matches our suckiness on 2 nd down too. As I said, our home run play calling kills us 1,2 3 down doesn't matter

We lost the special teams battle.

I like Hyde's aggressive return skills but he scares me to death the way he has the ball in one hand swinging it around going through traffic.I'mjust waiting for someone to swat it out of there.

Originally posted by jrice80:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by All22:
Guys, I'm working on getting the coaches film up as right now and it should be done in a few hours. I'll probably also put up the coaches film from the Cardinals @ Seahawks game so we can do some scouting as well. I hope to have it up on a video site by tonight.

WRT the 2nd down analysis, the data seems a bit skewed by the fact that we had 27 first downs and only 21 second downs. So on 6 first downs the play resulted in another first down (by gaining 10+ yards or defensive holding penalty etc) or we scored a touchdown yet those plays aren't included in the 2nd down stat that makes the claim that we are on average going backwards on first down.

TO's, penalties, FG's, etc. Not sure why but I copied/pasted directly from the Play-By-Play. Perhaps an extra set of eyes could help cross-reference to ensure I didn't miss anything? http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=400554365&period=0

I checked again...seems right/penalties/FG's 1st down, etc.
1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 41 (13:25) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 48 for 7 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 6 at WSH 30 (11:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at WAS 3. 3-yds YAC P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
2nd and 6 at SF 9 (7:38) C.Hyde left tackle to SF 11 for 2 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 7 at SF 24 (5:28) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 44 for 20 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF 26. 18-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (4:38) C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 42, and recovers at SF 42. C.Kaepernick to SF 42 for no gain (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
2nd and 9 at SF 47 (1:06) F.Gore up the middle to SF 49 for 2 yards (J.Hatcher).
1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
2nd and 9 at SF 6 (12:44) F.Gore up the middle to SF 14 for 8 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 16 (4:51) F.Gore up the middle to SF 19 for 3 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 28 (3:30) C.Kaepernick scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 5 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 13 at SF 30 (2:03) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to B.Miller to SF 42 for 12 yards (T.Porter). Caught at SF 38. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (1:30) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 40 for -4 yards (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
2nd and 7 at SF 28 (14:15) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right to S.Johnson (B.Breeland) [T.Murphy].
1st and 10 at SF 10 (11:37) C.Kaepernick pass short right to V.Davis to SF 26 for 16 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF21. 5-yds YAC PENALTY on SF-A.Boone, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10 - No Play.
1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy). WAS-T.Porter was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd and 15 at SF 5 (10:35) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 13 for 8 yards (G.Ducre). Caught at SF9. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
2nd and 7 at SF 11 (6:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 18 for 7 yards (P.Riley; R.Kerrigan). Officials to measure for 1st Down. Caught at SF 15. 3-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
2nd and 10 at SF 18 (6:06) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 27 for 9 yards (B.Breeland; P.Riley). WAS-B.Breeland was injured during the play. Caught at SF 24. 3-ds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
2nd and 10 at SF 27 (:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short middle to M.Crabtree to SF 32 for 5 yards (K.Robinson). 0-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yards of loose ball yardage
1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
2nd and 16 at SF 19 (6:51) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin pushed ob at SF 29 for 10 yards (G.Ducre).
1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
2nd and 5 at WSH 14 (3:47) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin to WAS 4 for 10 yards (P.Riley). Caught at WAS 7. 3-yds YAC
1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 3 at SF 29 (1:52) C.Hyde right guard to SF 29 for no gain (J.Jenkins).
1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.
2nd and 8 at WSH 8 (:26) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 9 for -1 yards.

I'd like to help clearing this statistics.

Just seeking for 2nd downs on the play-by-play is absolutely misleading. If a team on 1st down gains a new 1st down, you have no 2nd down, so all good 1st down plays are lost! That's why the numbers are so ugly (15 of the 21 times, 71%, we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go). And the average to go taking only 2nd and >7 is obviously at least 8 yards to go...

I used the same method for GB@MIN (I just chose GB to check a good team with a great QB/offense).
For GB, in that game, in 13 of the 18 2nd downs, 72%, they had >7 yards to go averaging 11.1 yards to go.
Their numbers are worst than ours, but...

If you want to see 1st production, seek for 1st downs on the play-by-play!
I'll show the details later on the post, first I show the results:

SF vs WAS
26 total first down plays
21 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
10 plays (48%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
88 total yards, 4.2 yards on average on first down (44 of those 88 yards came on a single play, so the average is misleading)
32 yards on 12 run plays, 2.7 on average
56 yards on 9 pass plays, 6.2 on average
1 first down

GB at MIN
28 total first down plays
24 total first down plays (excluding fumbles, ints, fgs, 1st and goal from less than 3 yards)
11 plays (46%) for less than 3 yards (so, if it was 1st and 10, it would be 2nd and more than 7 yards)
141 total yards, 5.9 yards on average on first down
63 yards on 13 run plays, 4.8 on average
78 yards on 11 pass plays, 7.1 on average
7 first downs

They were a lot better than us on first down, mainly because they got 7 first downs compared to 1 and our yard per play average is inflated by one play.


For the detail, these are the 1st downs of SF vs WAS (excluding the 1st downs with offensive penalties that causes the repetition of 1st down, i.e. play number 15 is a 1st and 15, because of a false start on the preceding play, not listed):

01. 1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
02. 1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
03. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
04. 1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
05. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
06. 1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
07. 1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
08. 1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
09. 1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
10. 1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
11. 1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
12. 1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
13. 1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
14. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
15. 1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy). WAS-T.Porter was injured during the play. He is Out.
16. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
17. 1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
18. 1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
19. 1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
20. 1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yds of loose ball yardage
21. 1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
22. 1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
23. 1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
24. 1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
25. 1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
26. 1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.

So the yards on first down are (an 'x' at the start of the line means that I excluded that play from the statistics):
01. 0 (incomplete pass)
02. 4 (run)
03. 4 (run)
04. 3 (run)
05. 0 (incomplete pass)
06. 1 (run)
x07. FUMBLE
08. 1 (run)
09. 9 (pass)
10. 9 (pass)
11. -3 (run)
12. 0 (incomplete pass)
x13. FG
14. 3 (run)
15. 0 (run)
x16. INT
17. 3 (run)
18. 0 (incomplete pass)
19. 0 (incomplete pass)
x20. FUMBLE
21. -6 (sack)
22. 44 (pass, 29 yards reception + 15 for unnecessary roughness)
23. 5 (run)
24. 4 (run, TD)
25. 7 (run)
x26. KNEEL

Not totally sure what you're trying to accomplish here so PM me and help me out here and maybe we can work together! You include the 15-yard penalty to the yards we gained to make it a 44 yard gain which is fine, but why not inlcude the penalties we got on first down that had us going backwards, or that nullified a positive gain?

I focus on second downs b/c that's the end-result (no matter what happened) of first down plays. My stats also are backed up by the fact that we're 31st in the NFL on 1st down production. I added the first downs in sequence this time to help others get a better context for what was happening on 1st downs (i.e. penalties, fumbles, INT, # of runs up the middle, short or deeper passes, RAC, etc.). If you have a particular angle (e.g. play calling is great but poor execution), you should be able to see that in the sequence of 1st and 2nd downs I posted with time markers and play descriptions.

As we still see for the year, cumulative, what more do we need to know? We're a HORRIBLE first down team and that really sets us up for failure. Would you agree?

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go

Bears Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 16
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 12

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
14 of the 20 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.1 yards left to go

Cardinals Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 10

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
7 of the 22 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.6 yards left to go

Eagles Game:
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 14
2nd and 8
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 7

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
18 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 11

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 9.6 yards to go

Broncos Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 19
2nd and 24
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 14
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
20 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 19
2nd and 11
2nd and 10

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
13 of the 20 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.2 yards to go

Saints Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
2nd and 19
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

Of the 25 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
17 of the 25 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.6 yards left to go

Giant's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 17
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

Redskin's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 16
2nd and 8

Of the 21 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 21 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 65.5% of the time (144 of 220) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.5 yards left to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're averaging going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

To quote SofaKing as well:
"Another interesting stat I found was that the 49ers' average down and distance on 3rd down is actually GREATER than 2nd down."
Average yards to go on 2nd down -- 7.59
Average yards to go on 3rd down -- 7.61

Originally posted by barrymartin:
Your last couple of paragraphs may be some of the most important posted this year. They are right on and explain why the offense is going through the doldrums and why we see Kap growing slowly. I have been seeing the same thing which has allowed me to have a lot of patience with what is going on because it is absolutely the right thing coaching wise. Harbaugh is doing the right thing to sacrifice short term flash for long term steady and bigger success. You are right to point to Vick and Newton as what happens when this approach isn't taken for short term success. Kap can be elite. We've all seen it. This is what we have to bank on and have patience to allow to be developed.

When Kap "gets it" he will be a triple threat as Young said and be unstoppable. Also, someday he will lose that speed. When he does he will still be an excellent QB. He has all the skills and the intelligence. We see it flash at times and it is amazing. Time...time..time...Fans don't seem to have much patience and tend not to see the bigger picture. Thank you so much for making it so clear.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by thl408:
Nice opening thought about how much we have to be thankful for. It's funny that we have to give a disclaimer before pointing out things the team needs to work on to get better. That said, I wanted to echo the same disclaimer.

DISCLAIMER: I am a Kap fan. Just because I critique his game, it does not mean I am a hater. From a coaches point of view, it is good to strive for perfection while hoping for excellence. The assessments may be harsh, but as we watch Kap develop, these cut ups provide a way for us to monitor his progress. As the years go by, we can see him get better in certain areas and look back and point to where he has grown.


WAS came with a healthy mix of man and zone coverage. A bit more man coverage than I expected considering how other teams have defended the 49ers by playing majority zone. Often, WAS would load the box with 8 and play man coverage. This is a compliment to the run game and a disrespect to the passing game. Some of that could be on Kap, but I think a lot of it is on the WR corp's lack of a deep threat. WAS didn't feel the need to fear being beat deep. This is why the 49ers took some deep shots even with no deep threats. That was what WAS dared the 49ers to do, beat them deep. It worked on the first drive and that caused the 49ers to try a few more times throughout the game.

When the WRs were covered downfield - no surprise there - there were indeed options underneath to throw to. Kap instead, scrambled for minimal gains. If the deep option is not there, Kap needs to be fast with adjusting his eye level to the short routes. Whether this is on the coaching to drill it into his head or on Kap to do it because that would be the logical thing to do, it needs to be done. There was one play on the final drive of the 1st half where there were 4 routes going out, both deep routes were double covered and Kap waited for it to become open. All the while the two underneath routes were open. I'll show a few plays regarding this.

I thought Marcus Martin didn't have a good game run blocking. He failed to recognize his block and that led to a few bad runs. Aldon's presence was felt up and down the Dline. The RayMac sack was a direct result of Aldon as Fangio moved Aldon around the Dline. Alfred Morris' big day was mainly a result of some missed assignments and shoddy tackling. This needs to get fixed for Thursday's game. I consider Morris like a mini-Lynch, big RB with good quickness, tough to bring down. RG3 is terrible and if you want to see a QB that doesn't know wth he's looking at when he drops back, RG3 is that guy. I'm sure a lot has to do with the 49er pas rush, but he is going down Micael Vick's career path if he doesn't shape up - good athlete, poor football IQ.

Agree on all points. I saw the same things across the board. There were times where Kap had receivers that were open(if only for a milisecond - which is often the case when facing zone coverages) and he either missed the receiver breaking open or scrambled for a small gain. I thought the article this week with Steven Young was an excellent interview with Steve on the topic. I think he really nailed it on the head with what I've been seeing from Kap and our offense. One thing he said really stuck with me though and made me think about why our offense seems to be "just a litlle off" and why we're not fully meeting our talent expectations.

He talked about how, when coaches got a hold of him that really forced him to work on the mental aspects of the game and learn the progressions, learn patience and learn everything, that it was a long process and a process that had a lot of growing pains. He talked about how, they could've tailored the offense more to his strengths as a runner and all, but it would've hampered his long term development. They could've gotten better results in the short term but would've seen regression in the long term as he wouldn't have developed all the skills necessary to become an elite QB(think of Cam Newton or Michael Vick - great early success, great struggles down the road).

What I see with Kap this year is that he's having a hard time knowing when to exhaust a play and know all his options. Some of this was due to the WR depth last year. Last year, he didn't have a whole lot of work with multiple receiving threats. So, for him, if the first read wasn't there, there truly were no other options. We also had to simplify the playbook to what our receiving corps could do. This hurt his development as a pocket passer.

This year, he's got more weapons than he's ever had - which is a good thing, but, it also means the information that he has to digest has grown and the speed at which he must do this has to increase. So, while it's easy to say, "we have all these weapons, we should be awesome" it doesn't always work that way, especially with a guy who is a developmental guy. Right now, he's having to work from a lot more whole field reads than half field reads. in the end, it'll make our offense much better and truly scary, but the process to get there won't be an easy, or quick one. Our coaches could make the offense simpler and could make it easier on everybody and probably get a little bit more production out - but the end product will not be a franchise QB, it'd be a short run QB.

That Steve Young article is really good in that regards and I'd recommend anyone to read it. It really helped me see our offense differently.

In case you didn't get a chance to read it, here it is: http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/11/21/steve-young-and-the-art-of-molding-a-mobile-quarterback/

I love that thl408 highlights what could have been done in an absolute ideal world from his POV and helps to highlight areas of growth (slow or quick), areas of weaknesses, etc. but I think we are focusing WAY too much on the QB here. The QB in THIS offense is nothing more than an extension of the running game. His sub-200 yards games, TOP, disribution, yards he gains on designed runs, scrambles, etc. are all part of that equation. If this was a pure WCO or spread offense, I can understand that...and that we should start to see much quicker progressions of growth (b/c that's the focus of the offense). That said, that's not what this offense is about. It's a first down-centric running team built off chunk-plays on 2nd and 3rd downs needing to go at least 8 yards on average. In short, these are much lower percentage opportunities esp. when you remove the middle of the field and short-yardage targets like we seem to do in THIS passing game as a whole. So why the extra focus on CK? I honestly, don't know what more he could have done to save this season. This isn't meant to say we still shouldn't focus on him going forward, but maybe more on the entire offense as a whole. Let's look at first downs since that is a HUGE issue for us. What's good, what's bad? Let's look at the running plays and diagnose the successes and failures there. Then, let's look at the complimentary passing game but keep it in context (Is it a 3rd and long? How much time did he have to throw?). Also, let's try to keep perspective here as well. We make a LOT of assumptions regarding the amount of control CK really has in the huddle and pre-snap. Let's not assume that CK is his own OC here and has all the freedom in the world to run this offense 100% of the time.

That just doesn't jive at all with quotes like these:

Alex Smith - His last moments in a 49ers uniform were spent standing on the Superdome sideline watching the final futile plays. "I certainly think if we had to do it all over again we'd call some different plays. We were getting pressure the entire time and we didnt call pressure beaters." Smith said the offensive line and running backs are still frustrated they werent given the chance to win the game. And he is still perplexed by the play-calling." On the last play I was on the sideline screaming for a timeout because we had called a play that had no pressure answer. Colin (Kaepernick) did the best he could with the signal and the throw. I'm sure if the coaches had it to do over again they'd call something with a better pressure answer." http://www.sfgate.com/49ers/article/Kansas-City-puts-smile-on-Alex-Smith-s-face-4891283.php#page-2

MaioccoCSN - Jim Harbaugh confirmed what Vernon Davis said - #49ers receivers don't adjust routes based on down/distance because it throws off timing.
MaioccoCSN - On two third-down passes that came up short, #49ers TE Vernon Davis said he ran the routes that were drawn up.
Jim Harbaugh - We are trying to execute the play and catch and if we call the route or play thats going to be caught before the sticks then you are hoping for the run after catch. Both of those were pretty darn close right at the sticks.

Staley's leaked comment about the broken "scheme."

Q: "The sequence at the end of the first half was interesting. Did you figure out what was going to happen there? That play was pretty interesting. Can you describe that whole business there?
A from CK: "We get the play calls when we get the play calls and we do what we can with them."
Q: Did you like that play call?
A: "It worked."
http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/11/24/7274197/49ers-vs-washington-transcripts-jim-harbaugh-players-discuss-win

Just some constructive criticism going forward...take it or leave it.

theduke85 added a nice PFF ranking of CK in relationship to all QB's thus far for perspective. Given the number of times he's saved us on 3rd and 4th downs, in the clutch, when the game and/or season was on the line, etc. perhaps we should give this kid some more love?

Post #11444: http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/178789-kaepernick-thread-2014-15-season/page763/#reply

Originally posted by NCommand:
Not totally sure what you're trying to accomplish here so PM me and help me out here and maybe we can work together! You include the 15-yard penalty to the yards we gained to make it a 44 yard gain which is fine, but why not inlcude the penalties we got on first down that had us going backwards, or that nullified a positive gain?

I focus on second downs b/c that's the end-result (no matter what happened) of first down plays. My stats also are backed up by the fact that we're 31st in the NFL on 1st down production. I added the first downs in sequence this time to help others get a better context for what was happening on 1st downs (i.e. penalties, fumbles, INT, # of runs up the middle, short or deeper passes, RAC, etc.). If you have a particular angle (e.g. play calling is great but poor execution), you should be able to see that in the sequence of 1st and 2nd downs I posted with time markers and play descriptions.

As we still see for the year, cumulative, what more do we need to know? We're a HORRIBLE first down team and that really sets us up for failure. Would you agree?

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go

Bears Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 16
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 12

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
14 of the 20 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.1 yards left to go

Cardinals Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 10

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
7 of the 22 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.6 yards left to go

Eagles Game:
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 14
2nd and 8
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 7

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
18 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 11

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 9.6 yards to go

Broncos Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 19
2nd and 24
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 14
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
20 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 19
2nd and 11
2nd and 10

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
13 of the 20 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.2 yards to go

Saints Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
2nd and 19
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

Of the 25 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
17 of the 25 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.6 yards left to go

Giant's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 17
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

Redskin's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 16
2nd and 8

Of the 21 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 21 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 65.5% of the time (144 of 220) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.5 yards left to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're averaging going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

To quote SofaKing as well:
"Another interesting stat I found was that the 49ers' average down and distance on 3rd down is actually GREATER than 2nd down."
Average yards to go on 2nd down -- 7.59
Average yards to go on 3rd down -- 7.61

I agree with you that we are quite bad on first downs, but seeking for 2nd downs on the play-by-play implies that you miss all 1st down plays that results in 1st downs.

For example, with this play-by-play:
1st and 10: 12 yards gain
1st and 10: 11 yards gain
1st and 10: 22 yards gain
1st and 10: -2 yard gain
2nd and 12: 13 yard gain
1st and 10: 12 yards gain
1st and 10: 2 yards gain
2nd and 8: 10 yard gain


You have the following 2nd down plays:
2nd and 12
2nd and 8

So, you would conclude that:
2 of the 2 times (100%) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

I wouldn't say that there were problems on first down! That's why I would seek for 1st down plays on the play-by-play to have information on 1st down production.

Then, I did not include the false start penalty because it's not a result of the 1st down play; you just start 5 yards farther, but there is no football played.
I included the unnecessary roughness because was part of the result of a football play. Probably you are right and it should be excluded too, because it is not related to the play calling or execution of the offense, as it is, instead, a pass interference.

Do you guys always have to quote the whole wall of text? I'm spending more time scrolling than reading.

Thl408, I want to start off by saying thank you very much for these breakdowns and thank you for answering my question about Kap. I really appreciate your analysis. I also want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving.


I have another question for you and it relates a little bit to what Steve Young had to say about mobile/talented QBs needing to stay in the pocket to learn the basic and fundamental aspects of quarterbacking. Greg Cosell recently published an article about RG3 due to his recent struggles and he talked about RG3 and Cam Newton being individuals that are talented but are somewhat unable to execute the basic aspects of quarterbacking because they don't have great accuracy, footwork, and they can't truly anticipate throws and understand certain route concepts and defensive looks. In your first comment you said that you felt that RG3 was terrible and he maybe going down the Mike Vick route and RG3 has since been benched for a journeyman in Colt McCoy. All of this kinda traces back to Kap because he is alot similar to these guys in terms of talent. My question is: do you think Kap is further along than these guys in terms of the little things necessary to succeed at the QB position so that if he can no longer run like a RG3 or he is somewhat injured like a Cam Newton and he can't simply rely on his legs/physical talent that he will be successful. When you watched RG3 on the film of this game, the little things that he didn't do that led you to the conclusion of he just isn't very good; Does Kap do those things? I know that there are things he needs to improve upon and you have done an excellent job of breaking them down but the things that have been going on with Cam Newton and RG3 and the recent Steve Young interview made me wonder about Kap due to the similarities and it got me thinking about whether or not he does the little things well enough so that if he at any point loses his physics gifts just how successful would he be?

Here is a link of the Greg Cosell article if you would like to read it: https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/sports/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-film-review--robert-griffin-iii-s-issues-214738329.html?orig_host_hdr=sports.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-US

Thanks for everything and Happy Thanksgiving.

Originally posted by jrice80:
I agree with you that we are quite bad on first downs, but seeking for 2nd downs on the play-by-play implies that you miss all 1st down plays that results in 1st downs.

For example, with this play-by-play:
1st and 10: 12 yards gain
1st and 10: 11 yards gain
1st and 10: 22 yards gain
1st and 10: -2 yard gain
2nd and 12: 13 yard gain
1st and 10: 12 yards gain
1st and 10: 2 yards gain
2nd and 8: 10 yard gain


You have the following 2nd down plays:
2nd and 12
2nd and 8

So, you would conclude that:
2 of the 2 times (100%) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

I wouldn't say that there were problems on first down! That's why I would seek for 1st down plays on the play-by-play to have information on 1st down production.

Then, I did not include the false start penalty because it's not a result of the 1st down play; you just start 5 yards farther, but there is no football played.
I included the unnecessary roughness because was part of the result of a football play. Probably you are right and it should be excluded too, because it is not related to the play calling or execution of the offense, as it is, instead, a pass interference.

Where are you getting the bolded results (12, 11, 22, etc. yard gains on first downs)? I listed all the 1st downs already and highlighted the positive plays of 4+ yards (even when there was a fumble, penalty reversal, FG on first down at the end of the half, etc.):

1st and 10 at SF 41 (13:31) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 41 (13:25) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 48 for 7 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at WSH 34 (12:04) F.Gore left end to WAS 30 for 4 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 6 at WSH 30 (11:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at WAS 3. 3-yds YAC P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (8:21) F.Gore up the middle to SF 9 for 4 yards (R.Clark).
2nd and 6 at SF 9 (7:38) C.Hyde left tackle to SF 11 for 2 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 21 (6:12) F.Gore left guard to SF 24 for 3 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 7 at SF 24 (5:28) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 44 for 20 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF 26. 18-yds YAC 1st and 10 at SF 44 (4:46) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (4:38) C.Kaepernick FUMBLES (Aborted) at SF 42, and recovers at SF 42. C.Kaepernick to SF 42 for no gain (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at SF 46 (1:41) C.Kaepernick scrambles left end ran ob at SF 47 for 1 yard.
2nd and 9 at SF 47 (1:06) F.Gore up the middle to SF 49 for 2 yards (J.Hatcher).
1st and 10 at WSH 41 (15:00) C.Hyde to WAS 41 for no gain (B.Meriweather). FUMBLES (B.Meriweather), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Clark at WAS 40. R.Clark to WAS 40 for no gain (M.Martin). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.
1st and 10 at SF 5 (13:22) C.Kaepernick scrambles left guard to SF 6 for 1 yard (K.Robinson).
2nd and 9 at SF 6 (12:44) F.Gore up the middle to SF 14 for 8 yards (P.Riley).
1st and 10 at SF 7 (5:27) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 16 for 9 yards (R.Clark). Caught at SF10. 6-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 16 (4:51) F.Gore up the middle to SF 19 for 3 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 19 (4:07) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 28 for 9 yards (B.Breeland). 0-yds YAC
2nd and 1 at SF 28 (3:30) C.Kaepernick scrambles left tackle to SF 33 for 5 yards (K.Robinson).
1st and 10 at SF 33 (2:44) F.Gore left end to SF 30 for -3 yards (T.Murphy).
2nd and 13 at SF 30 (2:03) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to B.Miller to SF 42 for 12 yards (T.Porter). Caught at SF 38. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 44 (1:31) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to M.Crabtree.
2nd and 10 at SF 44 (1:30) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 40 for -4 yards (R.Kerrigan).
1st and 10 at WSH 23 (:05) P.Dawson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 25 (14:54) F.Gore left tackle to SF 28 for 3 yards (B.Cofield).
2nd and 7 at SF 28 (14:15) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right to S.Johnson (B.Breeland) [T.Murphy].
1st and 10 at SF 10 (11:37) C.Kaepernick pass short right to V.Davis to SF 26 for 16 yards (B.Breeland). Caught at SF21. 5-yds YAC PENALTY on SF-A.Boone, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10 - No Play.
1st and 15 at SF 5 (11:05) F.Gore left tackle to SF 5 for no gain (T.Murphy)
2nd and 15 at SF 5 (10:35) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to B.Miller to SF 13 for 8 yards (G.Ducre). Caught at SF9. 4-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (9:13) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right intended for A.Boldin INTERCEPTED by G.Ducre at WAS 26. G.Ducre to WAS 33 for 7 yards (V.Davis).
1st and 10 at SF 8 (7:25) F.Gore up the middle to SF 11 for 3 yards (P.Riley).
2nd and 7 at SF 11 (6:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin to SF 18 for 7 yards (P.Riley; R.Kerrigan). Officials to measure for 1st Down. Caught at SF 15. 3-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 18 (6:09) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to A.Boldin.
2nd and 10 at SF 18 (6:06) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to M.Crabtree to SF 27 for 9 yards (B.Breeland; P.Riley). WAS-B.Breeland was injured during the play. Caught at SF 24. 3-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 27 (:25) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to V.Davis.
2nd and 10 at SF 27 (:20) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short middle to M.Crabtree to SF 32 for 5 yards (K.Robinson). 0-yds YAC
1st and 10 at SF 29 (10:12) F.Gore left end to SF 35 for 6 yards (T.Murphy). FUMBLES (T.Murphy), RECOVERED by WAS-P.Thomas at SF 38. P.Thomas to SF 36 for 2 yards (A.Boldin). 3-yds of loose ball yardage
1st and 10 at SF 25 (7:36) C.Kaepernick sacked at SF 19 for -6 yards (J.Hatcher).
2nd and 16 at SF 19 (6:51) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin pushed ob at SF 29 for 10 yards (G.Ducre).
1st and 10 at SF 37 (4:43) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep right to A.Boldin to WAS 34 for 29 yards (B.Breeland). WAS-R.Clark was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-R.Clark, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 34. Caught at WAS 40. 6-yds YAC
1st and 10 at WSH 19 (4:34) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle to WAS 14 for 5 yards (T.Robinson).
2nd and 5 at WSH 14 (3:47) (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin to WAS 4 for 10 yards (P.Riley). Caught at WAS 7. 3-yds YAC
1st and 4 at WSH 4 (3:03) (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P.Dawson extra point is GOOD, Center-K.Nelson, Holder-A.Lee.
1st and 10 at SF 22 (1:57) C.Hyde left guard to SF 29 for 7 yards (B.Meriweather).
2nd and 3 at SF 29 (1:52) C.Hyde right guard to SF 29 for no gain (J.Jenkins).
1st and 7 at WSH 7 (:52) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 8 for -1 yards.
2nd and 8 at WSH 8 (:26) C.Kaepernick kneels to WAS 9 for -1 yards.

Perhaps the sites are off, very different, or we're somehow making a copy/paste error? Either way, the overall picture remains the same. We suck on 1st down production but I do like your attempt to paint a more clear picture!

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Agree on all points. I saw the same things across the board. There were times where Kap had receivers that were open(if only for a milisecond - which is often the case when facing zone coverages) and he either missed the receiver breaking open or scrambled for a small gain. I thought the article this week with Steven Young was an excellent interview with Steve on the topic. I think he really nailed it on the head with what I've been seeing from Kap and our offense. One thing he said really stuck with me though and made me think about why our offense seems to be "just a litlle off" and why we're not fully meeting our talent expectations.

He talked about how, when coaches got a hold of him that really forced him to work on the mental aspects of the game and learn the progressions, learn patience and learn everything, that it was a long process and a process that had a lot of growing pains. He talked about how, they could've tailored the offense more to his strengths as a runner and all, but it would've hampered his long term development. They could've gotten better results in the short term but would've seen regression in the long term as he wouldn't have developed all the skills necessary to become an elite QB(think of Cam Newton or Michael Vick - great early success, great struggles down the road).

What I see with Kap this year is that he's having a hard time knowing when to exhaust a play and know all his options. Some of this was due to the WR depth last year. Last year, he didn't have a whole lot of work with multiple receiving threats. So, for him, if the first read wasn't there, there truly were no other options. We also had to simplify the playbook to what our receiving corps could do. This hurt his development as a pocket passer.

This year, he's got more weapons than he's ever had - which is a good thing, but, it also means the information that he has to digest has grown and the speed at which he must do this has to increase. So, while it's easy to say, "we have all these weapons, we should be awesome" it doesn't always work that way, especially with a guy who is a developmental guy. Right now, he's having to work from a lot more whole field reads than half field reads. in the end, it'll make our offense much better and truly scary, but the process to get there won't be an easy, or quick one. Our coaches could make the offense simpler and could make it easier on everybody and probably get a little bit more production out - but the end product will not be a franchise QB, it'd be a short run QB.

That Steve Young article is really good in that regards and I'd recommend anyone to read it. It really helped me see our offense differently.

In case you didn't get a chance to read it, here it is: http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/11/21/steve-young-and-the-art-of-molding-a-mobile-quarterback/

Excellent analysis. Kap has a lot of things to work on. It's promising that he has shown he can do it. He needs to do it consistently down to down. He needs to put full games together. I think once he does this he can have the confidence to be the type of leader the fans cry for and this offense desperately needs.

Originally posted by JAR93:
Thl408, I want to start off by saying thank you very much for these breakdowns and thank you for answering my question about Kap. I really appreciate your analysis. I also want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving.


I have another question for you and it relates a little bit to what Steve Young had to say about mobile/talented QBs needing to stay in the pocket to learn the basic and fundamental aspects of quarterbacking. Greg Cosell recently published an article about RG3 due to his recent struggles and he talked about RG3 and Cam Newton being individuals that are talented but are somewhat unable to execute the basic aspects of quarterbacking because they don't have great accuracy, footwork, and they can't truly anticipate throws and understand certain route concepts and defensive looks. In your first comment you said that you felt that RG3 was terrible and he maybe going down the Mike Vick route and RG3 has since been benched for a journeyman in Colt McCoy. All of this kinda traces back to Kap because he is alot similar to these guys in terms of talent. My question is: do you think Kap is further along than these guys in terms of the little things necessary to succeed at the QB position so that if he can no longer run like a RG3 or he is somewhat injured like a Cam Newton and he can't simply rely on his legs/physical talent that he will be successful. When you watched RG3 on the film of this game, the little things that he didn't do that led you to the conclusion of he just isn't very good; Does Kap do those things? I know that there are things he needs to improve upon and you have done an excellent job of breaking them down but the things that have been going on with Cam Newton and RG3 and the recent Steve Young interview made me wonder about Kap due to the similarities and it got me thinking about whether or not he does the little things well enough so that if he at any point loses his physics gifts just how successful would he be?

Here is a link of the Greg Cosell article if you would like to read it: https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/sports/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-s-film-review--robert-griffin-iii-s-issues-214738329.html?orig_host_hdr=sports.yahoo.com&.intl=us&.lang=en-US

Thanks for everything and Happy Thanksgiving.

I will let Thl give the full answer based upon his film study, but based upon what I've seen on TV and on various All-22 analytical pieces and listening to Greg Cosell, Kap is much, much further along than RG3, and is playing in the pocket more consistently than Wilson and Newton. Kap has zero rushing TDs for a reason - he and the coaches are making a concerted effort to develop his passing game experience and it's slowly paying off. Even some of Kap's most "confirmation bias" prone critics are making small concessions about his play in the pocket. (It's hard to change a national narrative in the media - and the narrative has been that Colin can't play from the pocket because he's a "1-Read" QB.) I watched Kap's 2013 games several times and his play in the pocket and improvement looking through reads is much, much better this year. He also slides up in the pocket to avoid pressure, and is hesitant to run (maybe even too hesitant at times). He definitely has things to work on, and needs to be more consistent, but he's getting there slowly. Ed Werder at ESPN had a very interesting tweet after the loss at home to the Rams:

Ed Werder ✔ @Edwerderespn
One #NFL head coach told me he agrees with #49ers emphasis on more fully developing @Kaepernick7 passing skills in their offense



Ed also replied to a tweeter in saying that the HC was not from the NFC West so it was not a "troll job" by Pete Carroll or something.

RG3 is no comparison because the guy's basic footwork and progression reading/pocket movement skills are as "remedial" as Trent Dilfer errantly stated about Kaepernick last year. Cosell said it best. RG3 literally needs to go back to QB 101 and I'm sure he drove Jay Gruden so crazy that it's why he's been benched and probably is on his way out of Washington.

Newton received a ton of praise from film guys like Cosell last year for his pocket play. However, Newton's play has really regressed from last year. Some of that is the fault of a compromised surrounding cast, and it is possible Newton is also injured. But that said, Newton is making terrible reads, throwing the ball into double coverage, and dropping his eyes from the field to look at the rush in the backfield. I watched him closely in his losses to the Hawks and the Eagles and he was painful to watch.

Wilson is a strange case. I think the media has long overrated him because the Seahawks' offensive scheme is designed to allow Wilson to make easy reads and throws, or rely on his play action or zone read abilities built off their offenses' true MVP, Marshawn Lynch. He can progress through reads, but to my eye, he is rarely throwing the ball except to a wide open (blown coverage) receiver, a quick bubble screen (1-read play), or a playaction rollout to a TE rolling the same way into the flat. When he does drop back, he almost seems to freeze as if he's staring at one person until the DEs start to get close. Then he starts the scramble drill in hopes he can break the outside contain, or he can run around long enough for a WR to finally shake coverage. Greg Cosell said that in watching Seahawk film, Wilson's legs are being used far more than their pass game because their pass game isn't very good at all. Hawk homers will complain about their OL, or their WRs, or something else, but the plain fact is that Wilson isn't a very good pocket player despite the national narratives. Good pocket players can usually muster some passing offense by progressing through reads even with mediocre WRs. Wilson is a playground player and their OC has made his living on helping Wilson thrive in some organized chaos.