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Originally posted by SofaKing:
Another interesting stat I found was that the 49ers' average down and distance on 3rd down is actually GREATER than 2nd down.
Average yards to go on 2nd down -- 7.59
Average yards to go on 3rd down -- 7.61
Basically, this means this team sucks royally on 2nd down.
Originally posted by zugschef:
It could also mean, that it's hit or miss on 2nd down. A lot of offenses risk a big play on 2nd down. So it's either 1st down or you tend to stay put.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Ok, I'm not trying to make this into a Kap sucks thread or excuse Roman from blame. As to my assertion about leadership - here's where it comes from:
What you see is time and again, when we have a negative play on offense - it's almost always a drive killer. A.J. McCarron talked about this with Alabama this year. He said that they can never recover from a negative play on offense because they don't have any leaders on that side of the ball. You also hear that talked a lot about from former players, that when they had a solid leader at QB, they always knew that they could come out of any hole. Our guys seem to fold when anything negative happens.
That's what I saw in the first half. We had 3rd and long at the end of all our drives with Gore's fumble being the exception. Out of 4 3rd and longs we had 2 missed, open receivers by CK, 1 terrible throw and a play designed against man-coverage when the Giants ran cover 6 zone(I think that's what Thl was talking about when he said bad play design). If 1 of 4 is play design - that's not the O-Coord.
In the 2nd half: We had drops, missed blocks on runs and poor pass pro.
What I see is guys not playing at a level I've seen them play at for the past 2 years. Do we win by play design all the time? No. But, do we have plays where timing between QB and WR are off just a bit, where guys who are normally good blockers blow a block, our QB miss a throw that he normally makes? Yeah. When you have those issues you have to ask - who's keeping these guys accountable on the field?
Good leaders - in sports and any other area, elevate the performance level of people around them. They know how to spurn people on to give their best at all times and can get a group of people to be better than the sum of its parts. I see an offense that is lesser than the sum of its parts. On paper - we should be a top 5 offense. But we're not. If I saw our coord consistently putting our guys in bad positions or constantly getting overmatched by the d-coord of the other team, I'd lay it at his feet. But, when you have blue chip players playing piss poor football - you have to ask where is the leadership??
I'll be able to show examples once my internet comes back up. Right now, we have an area wide outage and I'm posting this via a mobile hotspot. So, I'm not going to use all my mobile data to grab screenshots for breakdowns. Once our internet gets up and running again I'll be able to show more things about what I'm talking about.
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That's a long-winded way of expressing your point but naturally, I agree! As to the bold, it's hard to say. It could be b/c we're always in 2nd and 3rd and longs or it could be b/c that's what's entrenched in the philosophy...someone likened it to playing the slot machine (lose some money with the chance of making up for it with a bigger payoff). Some could be b/c HaRoman see that as CK's passing strength (intermediate-deeper passing game) or this is the area they see most teams struggle to defend (long sideline routes/comebacks/back shoulder throws). But given the types of routes we run (vanilla), depth (all the same depth or deep, deeper and deepest, etc.), that's probably just the game plan every week.
PS: I'm just going to keep posting this over and over until fans understand the ramifications of this offensive approach:; how critical sequence of play calling is; how one play sets up the other, etc.
Overall:
So overall for the season, on 2nd downs, 63% of the time (124 of 196) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ouselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there. Fix 1st downs and you fix 2nd and 3rd. Fix 1st downs and you'll most likely have success in the RZ as well (similar calls). Fix RZ problems and we're a Superbowl champion!
Yes, but the reason why it is second and long is because his first down pass was either completed for 10+ yards or incomplete. If he chose to throw a 5 yard pass then he wouldn't be in second and long. Then 2nd and 5 becomes a potential running down, instead of 2nd and 10 which suggests pass.
Personally, on 2nd and 10, I think the 49ers should run before. They wouldn't be facing 8 in the box so have a good chance of getting 5 or more yards and then having a manageable 3rd down.
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
On shotgun snaps, Boone looks back and then looks up, taps Martin, and then martin looks back and then snap.
Do you think its easier as a pass rusher to get a good jump knowing the snap is coming after the tap?
Would that explain some of the freakishly high number of sacks lately?
Originally posted by matt49er:The biggest reason I don't say it's the position they're put it - is because I see them succeed in the same position they're put in 8/10 times. It's the 2 that kill us - and that, everybody's 2 bad plays out of 10 seem to come at the worst times. That's part of what is so great about football though, it really does take 11 guys all doing their jobs. If 1 guy blows it i.e. A. Davis gives up a speed rush, it can ruin the whole play. That's true at any level of football for any team.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Ok, I'm not trying to make this into a Kap sucks thread or excuse Roman from blame. As to my assertion about leadership - here's where it comes from:
What you see is time and again, when we have a negative play on offense - it's almost always a drive killer. A.J. McCarron talked about this with Alabama this year. He said that they can never recover from a negative play on offense because they don't have any leaders on that side of the ball. You also hear that talked a lot about from former players, that when they had a solid leader at QB, they always knew that they could come out of any hole. Our guys seem to fold when anything negative happens.
That's what I saw in the first half. We had 3rd and long at the end of all our drives with Gore's fumble being the exception. Out of 4 3rd and longs we had 2 missed, open receivers by CK, 1 terrible throw and a play designed against man-coverage when the Giants ran cover 6 zone(I think that's what Thl was talking about when he said bad play design). If 1 of 4 is play design - that's not the O-Coord.
In the 2nd half: We had drops, missed blocks on runs and poor pass pro.
What I see is guys not playing at a level I've seen them play at for the past 2 years. Do we win by play design all the time? No. But, do we have plays where timing between QB and WR are off just a bit, where guys who are normally good blockers blow a block, our QB miss a throw that he normally makes? Yeah. When you have those issues you have to ask - who's keeping these guys accountable on the field?
Good leaders - in sports and any other area, elevate the performance level of people around them. They know how to spurn people on to give their best at all times and can get a group of people to be better than the sum of its parts. I see an offense that is lesser than the sum of its parts. On paper - we should be a top 5 offense. But we're not. If I saw our coord consistently putting our guys in bad positions or constantly getting overmatched by the d-coord of the other team, I'd lay it at his feet. But, when you have blue chip players playing piss poor football - you have to ask where is the leadership??
I'll be able to show examples once my internet comes back up. Right now, we have an area wide outage and I'm posting this via a mobile hotspot. So, I'm not going to use all my mobile data to grab screenshots for breakdowns. Once our internet gets up and running again I'll be able to show more things about what I'm talking about.
I see what you're saying & respect everything you do here a great deal. But, I have to question whether or not these players are suddenly playing worse on a consistent basis or whether or not it's the position they're put in. In football, coaching is far more important than any other sport and I refuse to believe these players are suddenly much worse than they've played before, especially the OL.
The 49ers have suffered from a major identity crisis a lot this year, this team can't decide if they want to be a power run team or a wide open passing attack. To me it's pretty simple, for the passing game to succeed, they need to establish the run game. Start games off with a heavy dose of Gore/Hyde, utilize Kaep's legs early and force the defense to worry about him running the ball on every single play. Then, mix it up and throw the football. Another very frustrating thing about the offensive coaching staff is the usage of personnel. Stevie Johnson has been absolute money when he's played this year, yet he's played significantly less than Boldin and Crabtree & even less than Lloyd (although I do understand Lloyd plays a lot as the only WR when they go to obvious run formations like Moss did 2 years ago to be a deep threat) Carol Hyde should be getting more carries and the team should be running more on early downs in the red zone.
I remember the feeling of frustration I used to get during the Singletary era that if this team had a real head coach, they had the talent to win. It's almost the same now, I understand not laying all the offenses struggles at Romans feet, but, I think it's hard to say with a straight face that you don't think this offense would vastly improve with an upgrade at OC.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by NCommand:
That's a long-winded way of expressing your point but naturally, I agree! As to the bold, it's hard to say. It could be b/c we're always in 2nd and 3rd and longs or it could be b/c that's what's entrenched in the philosophy...someone likened it to playing the slot machine (lose some money with the chance of making up for it with a bigger payoff). Some could be b/c HaRoman see that as CK's passing strength (intermediate-deeper passing game) or this is the area they see most teams struggle to defend (long sideline routes/comebacks/back shoulder throws). But given the types of routes we run (vanilla), depth (all the same depth or deep, deeper and deepest, etc.), that's probably just the game plan every week.
PS: I'm just going to keep posting this over and over until fans understand the ramifications of this offensive approach:; how critical sequence of play calling is; how one play sets up the other, etc.
Overall:
So overall for the season, on 2nd downs, 63% of the time (124 of 196) we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ouselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there. Fix 1st downs and you fix 2nd and 3rd. Fix 1st downs and you'll most likely have success in the RZ as well (similar calls). Fix RZ problems and we're a Superbowl champion!
Yes, but the reason why it is second and long is because his first down pass was either completed for 10+ yards or incomplete. If he chose to throw a 5 yard pass then he wouldn't be in second and long. Then 2nd and 5 becomes a potential running down, instead of 2nd and 10 which suggests pass.
Personally, on 2nd and 10, I think the 49ers should run before. They wouldn't be facing 8 in the box so have a good chance of getting 5 or more yards and then having a manageable 3rd down.
I know a poster somewhat disregarded the bolded stat line above b/c s/he assumed we had several first downs ON first downs and therefore, these stats don't tell the whole picture. So I wanted tp post this series of events for you (only 4 first downs on first down):
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore right guard for 5 yards
2nd and 5 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore right end for 17 yards
1st and 10 C.Kaepernick sacked for -8 yards
2nd and 18 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to M.Crabtree PENALTY for PI.
1st and 10 C.Hyde right end for 3 yards
2nd and 7 C.Kaepernick pass short middle to A.Boldin for 11 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick left end for -7 yards
2nd and 17 (Shotgun) C.Hyde right tackle for 4 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore left guard for 3 yards
2nd and 7 C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to V.Davis
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick FUMBLES for 2 yards
2nd and 8 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass deep left for 25 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore right end for -1 yard
2nd and 11 C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep left to B.Lloyd
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep middle to V.McDonald
2nd and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore right end for 11 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short middle to M.Crabtree for 48 yards; TD
1st and 10 C.Hyde left end for 1 yard
2nd and 9 C.Kaepernick pass short left to S.Johnson for 8 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore right tackle for 5 yards
2nd and 5 (Shotgun) F.Gore up the middle for 5 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass incomplete short left to F.Gore
2nd and 10 (Shotgun) C.Hyde up the middle for 4 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right to A.Boldin for 13 yards
1st and 10 F.Gore right end for 4 yards
2nd and 6 C.Kaepernick pass incomplete deep right to V.Davis.
1st and 10 (Shotgun) F.Gore left tackle for 2 yards
2nd and 8 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short left to A.Boldin for 7 yards
1st and 10 C.Kaepernick pass short middle to B.Miller for 5 yards
2nd and 5 (Shotgun) C.Hyde left tackle for 1 yard
1st and 10 F.Gore left tackle for 8 yards
2nd and 2 F.Gore right guard for 3 yards
1st and 10 (Shotgun) C.Kaepernick pass short right for 11 yards
1st and 10 C.Hyde up the middle to SF 25 for 1 yard
2nd and 9 F.Gore right tackle for 2 yards
So in the end, we're still going backwards 2/3rds of the time on first downs:
Giant's Game:
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go
Originally posted by thl408:
I am intrigued enough by these 1st down failures that I will look into analysis of each 1st down in this game. I don't know if I just bit off more than I can chew, but I will try. If it requires a cut up I'll do that. If it's easily explainable by text, I will just do that. No idea when this will be done.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Here's one of our picks from defense. In this game, we had a great mix of outstanding individual efforts by players and great team execution of some well timed calls. This is great team execution of a well timed call.
7:08 to go 3rd QTR
Here, we're actually going to drop out 2 best pass rushers into coverage at the same time. This is one reason I love the flexibility of the 3-4 base defense. Even in your Nickel your still a 2-4-5. Having those OLB's as your pass rushers and the flexibility of the QB and O-line never being sure if they're coming or not. Out of our Nickel, 2-4-5, we run a "fire zone blitz". a fire zone is any 3 deep 3 under zone blitz. We have our Free safety-Reid, and our two corners playing deep 3rd and drop A. Smith, Lynch and Bethea into the underneath zones. NY actually gets a guy open on this play, but the pressure forces a bad pass.
The key here is that when Johnson comes on his blitz, there's 2 guys who are concerned with Lynch's rush so Johnson comes with a fairly free run.
Eli first looks to the single receiver side but sees bracket coverage.
The square in is actually open, but the pressure from Johson and Borland causes Eli to not have anywhere to step up or to look to that side.
He tries to get it in to his deep route, but way overthrows the ball.
If you didn't know it, from looking at this shot, you'd think Reid was returning a punt lol. He actually looked like a punt returner as he was watching the ball float in.
From this angle, we'll get a good look at the execution of this play. It's a great team rush. McDonald and J. Smith take wider rushes. This leaves the center alone to block 2 guys. This means that you'll have a LB 1-1 with a RB in the middle. Also, notice how NY was trying to "chip" Lynch with the TE, which slows his release(the most effective "hot" receiver route against this blitz and coverage) so that, he's not a factor in the play. The T's also are eyeing Lynch and A.Smith because of the threat of their rush. The RT's eyeing of Lynch will open up Johnson on his rush.
Borland is 1-1 with the RB and the late reaction by the RT puts him in a tough spot to react to a full speed Dontae Johnson.
Borland rocks the RB, the RB actually does a decent job in pass pro, but, Borland knocks him back enough to collapse the pocket around Eli.
Johnson is able to get around the RT who was in a tough spot already and is coming after Eli.
Johnson hits Eli right as he throws the ball.
