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So, here's a 3 down sequence that led to a FG:


We come out in 21 personnel with twins to the left and Miller set out wide. The LB on Miller and CB on Boldin reveal man coverage. In response, CK changes the play - you can see him come up to the line then audible out and turn around and tell Gore the play.


We then motion Miller into the backfield


We're going to run a simple power play - this is one of our staple running plays. The key block will be from Staley, but he's got a good angle. He has to block the DE down away from the play.


Staley gets beat fairly bad inside though.


This then, causes Miller to not be sure if he should help Staley out or continue on to block the LB


Gore's then left with nowhere to go


You see Staley talking to Miller after the play trying to square away what should've happened.

2nd down and 11, 11:00 to go in the 2nd QTR


We stay in 21 personnel. Pre-snap, we see a 2 deep safety look from NY, the Corner on the TE side reveals zone coverage.


^ I drew VD's route going the wrong direction - it's an out route. We motion Miller over to an off-set I which reveals a cover 3 look when the safety comes down. We have a double post on the twins side with a mid-out from VD. The reveal of cover 3 zone with your 3 layer middle routes gives your QB a hi/lo read. There's only going to be 2 defenders in the middle of the field - but, CK doesn't look to the underneath routes.


After the snap, you see the LB taking a deeper drop, looking towards Boldin. The safety, also worried about Boldin's threat - and because CK did keep his head in the middle of the field this time, stays in center field. This does open up a small hole for the skinny post, but it's a tight throw.


You see Ck had Hyde for at least 4-5 yards on the play, and Boldin is gonna be open in a half second. The play design is there to open up at least getting a few yards to give a 3rd and 5 or 4. Instead, Ck sees the small window for a bigger play and tries to fit it in.


It's a tight window - CK gets it there, but Crabs can't make the catch - he did get popped hard on the play and the corner was also there to get in on the play.

It's up to you if he made the right throw or not - personally, I don't like 2nd and long as your time to take a shot. You should at least get something so that you make it easier on 3rd down.

3rd down and 11, 10:21 to go 2nd qtr

We come out in a 2x2 set with Johnson and VD at the bottom and Lloyd and Boldin at the top. The giants give a cover 4 shell look - they'll stay in that defense.



As the play develops, you see how the LB is going to be a tough spot on VD, he has to be aware the the threat from an out breaking route from the RB, but is in a losing situation with inside leverage on VD. Johnson's route will clear out the outside defender as well.


You see VD would've been open - pretty much at the sticks. But, CK - this time, goes to his checkdown - Hyde.


You see how open VD would've been(the corner couldn't see that CK was throwing - that's why he continued to run with Johnson and there's no way the LB stays with VD) and Hyde gets tackled immediately after catching the ball.

Leads to 4th and 5 and a FG.

So, I showed 3 plays in sequence. Each of these had player fails and the team could not respond to a negative play on 1st down. This, and many other sequences like it, are why I come to the conclusions I did in my OP about our team not being able to come out of negative plays and about our QB needing to elevate his game.

It's also hard for me to lay a ton of blame at Roman's feet. I could see a case being made for Solari, or Chryst on those plays, but, hard for me to blame play design. There were plays to be made, yards to gain, we just didn't get em.
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If the play is designed to go to Crabtree as the primary and he throws it there is that really on Kap? That kind of play he is doing what the coaches want IMO. If they wanted a guy who would take 6 yards on 2nd they would've kept Alex. He's coached to take the shots. That 2nd down play is what they want him to do.

The coaches have to do their part in elevating his game. I just don't see them trying to have him work on the gunslinger Favre like mentality. They encourage it.
[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Nov 19, 2014 at 8:37 AM ]
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Originally posted by jonnydel:
"removed a lot and I hope I didn't destroy the context of the point"

As the play develops, you see how the LB is going to be a tough spot on VD, he has to be aware the the threat from an out breaking route from the RB, but is in a losing situation with inside leverage on VD. Johnson's route will clear out the outside defender as well.


You see VD would've been open - pretty much at the sticks. But, CK - this time, goes to his checkdown - Hyde.


You see how open VD would've been(the corner couldn't see that CK was throwing - that's why he continued to run with Johnson and there's no way the LB stays with VD) and Hyde gets tackled immediately after catching the ball. "


K, I understand the line of events; however, VD (IMO) was NOT WIDE OPEN. More importantly, IF Kaep decided to throw it to him, It would have been a pick. Keap didn't know which way 54 was going to slide. 54 was smack dab in the middle of a passing lane. During this same game, Manning threw a pick trying to make this throw.

Kaep doesn't have all day to wait for the LB to volunteer where they'll direct themselves in the zone. So, by the time the option becomes rationally viable, it's a sack or an in completion.

Keap did the smart thing and got the ball in out with positive yardage and the possibility of a YAC first down.
[ Edited by Geeked on Nov 19, 2014 at 8:43 AM ]
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by Loco49er:
I'm not saying he shouldn't throw to his primary read but the best QBs take a quick look at the other side of the field to keep the DBs guessing. It's easy to defend routes when the QB cuts the playing field in half.

One more thing, the play design on the left is horrible. When they run this play again I hope the primary read is Lloyd on the right.

Looking a DB off is not the same thing as totally looking at the other side of the field. If you think your first read is open looking at the other side of the field can close that window quickly and you're not guaranteed that the guy on the other side is open.

Your primary read is not going to be open if you stare them down, especially on longer routes. At least give yourself a chance by looking somewhere else. It's the little things that make an elite QB.
THL408 or Jonnydel,

I appreciate everything you guys do in these posts. I know its been said a million times before, but it deserves to be said again because of all of the time and money (for the NFL film package) that you put in. But back to the discussion about football.

When I rewatched this game via DVR (so just the TV broadcast) it did appear that Kap targeted Crabtree slightly more than other recievers. Certainly this was not exclusive as there were the throws to VD and at least one to SJ and one attempt to Lloyd. But as we saw in the most recently broken down play, Kap targeted Crabtree on the deep out to the left, which was a much harder throw than the hook or curl (never remember which is which) to Lloyd to his left.

So my question is do you think that Crabtree's locker room comments after the Saint's game played into Kap's mind in where to try to go with the ball?

If so, this to me is the massive danger of the media. If so, does this mean that Aldon or Lynch are gonna be held out in favor of Brooks, just so he doesn't get his feelings hurt more? (rhetorical question)

I think we would all like to see some breakdowns of the passes that VD was targeted on. Many of us thought that on a few of those throws that VD only gave half an effort on his route. There was of course his injury and maybe that is still bothering him or mentally affecting his game, but I can't help but wonder if outside considerations on his part are affecting his effort. (Things such as contract concerns he had before the start of the season, how he feels he is being used in the offense, how he feels about his position coach or some of the other coaches -- has VD come out in TOTAL support of Harbaugh...could he be the leak/complainer, etc). I have also felt like perhaps this may have been the case with Boone's poor play throughout the season, but I digress.
Originally posted by SFFanSince72:
THL408 or Jonnydel,

I appreciate everything you guys do in these posts. I know its been said a million times before, but it deserves to be said again because of all of the time and money (for the NFL film package) that you put in. But back to the discussion about football.

When I rewatched this game via DVR (so just the TV broadcast) it did appear that Kap targeted Crabtree slightly more than other recievers. Certainly this was not exclusive as there were the throws to VD and at least one to SJ and one attempt to Lloyd. But as we saw in the most recently broken down play, Kap targeted Crabtree on the deep out to the left, which was a much harder throw than the hook or curl (never remember which is which) to Lloyd to his left.

So my question is do you think that Crabtree's locker room comments after the Saint's game played into Kap's mind in where to try to go with the ball?

If so, this to me is the massive danger of the media. If so, does this mean that Aldon or Lynch are gonna be held out in favor of Brooks, just so he doesn't get his feelings hurt more? (rhetorical question)

I think we would all like to see some breakdowns of the passes that VD was targeted on. Many of us thought that on a few of those throws that VD only gave half an effort on his route. There was of course his injury and maybe that is still bothering him or mentally affecting his game, but I can't help but wonder if outside considerations on his part are affecting his effort. (Things such as contract concerns he had before the start of the season, how he feels he is being used in the offense, how he feels about his position coach or some of the other coaches -- has VD come out in TOTAL support of Harbaugh...could he be the leak/complainer, etc). I have also felt like perhaps this may have been the case with Boone's poor play throughout the season, but I digress.

Good post.

Or Crabree was built into the game plan more. If you go back over the past two years, you'll see a rotation of primary targets the past two years or so. One game VD will be built into the game plan and he's our leading receiver, then next game may be Boldin, then Crabtree, or Boldin and Crabtree rotating back and forth. It seems like its by design?
Originally posted by Geeked:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
"removed a lot and I hope I didn't destroy the context of the point"

As the play develops, you see how the LB is going to be a tough spot on VD, he has to be aware the the threat from an out breaking route from the RB, but is in a losing situation with inside leverage on VD. Johnson's route will clear out the outside defender as well.


You see VD would've been open - pretty much at the sticks. But, CK - this time, goes to his checkdown - Hyde.


You see how open VD would've been(the corner couldn't see that CK was throwing - that's why he continued to run with Johnson and there's no way the LB stays with VD) and Hyde gets tackled immediately after catching the ball. "

K, I understand the line of events; however, VD (IMO) was NOT WIDE OPEN. More importantly, IF Kaep decided to throw it to him, It would have been a pick. Keap didn't know which way 54 was going to slide. 54 was smack dab in the middle of a passing lane. During this same game, Manning threw a pick trying to make this throw.

Kaep doesn't have all day to wait for the LB to volunteer where they'll direct themselves in the zone. So, by the time the option becomes rationally viable, it's a sack or an in completion.

Keap did the smart thing and got the ball in out with positive yardage and the possibility of a YAC first down.

Agreed, I think throwing it to VD would have resulted in a pick as well.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
If the play is designed to go to Crabtree as the primary and he throws it there is that really on Kap? That kind of play he is doing what the coaches want IMO. If they wanted a guy who would take 6 yards on 2nd they would've kept Alex. He's coached to take the shots. That 2nd down play is what they want him to do.

The coaches have to do their part in elevating his game. I just don't see them trying to have him work on the gunslinger Favre like mentality. They encourage it.
My issue with that is that we don't have any sources of information to prove that statement. We aren't in the meeting rooms, we're not on the sidelines. I see a play that I've seen before in my playbooks,it's a hi/lo read. The QB is supposed to read the middle defenders high to low. Where they don't defend, that's where you go with the ball. That stuff I can see and show on the thread. Saying that the coaches are coaching him to take the shot - that's a guess in the dark. We have no way of knowing if that is or isn't true. To me, my logic tells me, they're going to look to at least make 3rd down more manageable.
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Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
That's a very narrow, hopeful analysis. I guess the problems last year were that Crabs was hurt? You can't lay this all on one position, although I agree that vern was home run target last year and not this year. Maybe call less home runs?

Our offensive staff needs to transition to more neutral formations that are less reliant on oveloading the point of attack, run a more balanced pass distribution that includes tight ends and running backs (who are NEVER targeted), and call plays that are situationally appropriate. For example, a 25 yard out isn't a shrewd play to run on 2nd and 11. Think about a 5 yard swing to Frank, setting up a 3rd and manageable. Unless we start to think like that, we will stay one of the ugliest, least productive offenses in the league. And we won't need 5 second pass pro or vern catching a dozen verticals to be competitive.

They do run a lot of counter plays to the weakside of the formation. I agree a lot with the underlined. The little dumpoffs to the RB are there for the taking. The NYG LBs were not impressive to me and Gore/Hyde should have been a focal point of the passing attack, at least in spurts throughout this game. Had they done that, other things start to open up.

Like you said, if it's 2nd & 11 because a running play got stuffed on first down, and there's nothing wrong with trying to run the ball on first down, then just work to get a shorter 3rd down. Third and longs are already hard enough to convert, but now the Oline has to contend with a DL that has their ears pinned back trying to get Kap because everyone knows it's a pass play. If it's 3rd&4, playaction is available. Even a run play is available given how poorly NYG defends the run. There were a number of times where the 49ers went for the long bomb when it was completely unnecessary. Given that they have no speed threat WRs and VD is gimpy, there is no speed threat on the team except for Ellington who hasn't caught anything deep downfield. Yet they still tried several times (I think I counted 4) to try to hit a big play downfield on 2nd down. Wasted down, now they got '3rd and pass it'.

I'm not asking Kap to channel his inner Captain Dumpoff, but there is a happy medium to be had.
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
Originally posted by Geeked:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
"removed a lot and I hope I didn't destroy the context of the point"

As the play develops, you see how the LB is going to be a tough spot on VD, he has to be aware the the threat from an out breaking route from the RB, but is in a losing situation with inside leverage on VD. Johnson's route will clear out the outside defender as well.


You see VD would've been open - pretty much at the sticks. But, CK - this time, goes to his checkdown - Hyde.


You see how open VD would've been(the corner couldn't see that CK was throwing - that's why he continued to run with Johnson and there's no way the LB stays with VD) and Hyde gets tackled immediately after catching the ball. "
K, I understand the line of events; however, VD (IMO) was NOT WIDE OPEN. More importantly, IF Kaep decided to throw it to him, It would have been a pick. Keap didn't know which way 54 was going to slide. 54 was smack dab in the middle of a passing lane. During this same game, Manning threw a pick trying to make this throw.

Kaep doesn't have all day to wait for the LB to volunteer where they'll direct themselves in the zone. So, by the time the option becomes rationally viable, it's a sack or an in completion.

Keap did the smart thing and got the ball in out with positive yardage and the possibility of a YAC first down.

Agreed, I think throwing it to VD would have resulted in a pick as well.
Well, agree to disagree, I see VD matched up a LB as a win. That LB, Gore consistently ran away from in the game. He doesn't have great wheels. I think it's no contest that VD gets to the sideline. The only way I see the throw being picked, is if Kap throws the ball way behind VD to the inside.

The Manning pick was a completely different type of play, it was a different route and defense combo all together.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, here's a 3 down sequence that led to a FG:


We come out in 21 personnel with twins to the left and Miller set out wide. The LB on Miller and CB on Boldin reveal man coverage. In response, CK changes the play - you can see him come up to the line then audible out and turn around and tell Gore the play.


We then motion Miller into the backfield


We're going to run a simple power play - this is one of our staple running plays. The key block will be from Staley, but he's got a good angle. He has to block the DE down away from the play.


Staley gets beat fairly bad inside though.


This then, causes Miller to not be sure if he should help Staley out or continue on to block the LB


Gore's then left with nowhere to go


You see Staley talking to Miller after the play trying to square away what should've happened.

2nd down and 11, 11:00 to go in the 2nd QTR


We stay in 21 personnel. Pre-snap, we see a 2 deep safety look from NY, the Corner on the TE side reveals zone coverage.


^ I drew VD's route going the wrong direction - it's an out route. We motion Miller over to an off-set I which reveals a cover 3 look when the safety comes down. We have a double post on the twins side with a mid-out from VD. The reveal of cover 3 zone with your 3 layer middle routes gives your QB a hi/lo read. There's only going to be 2 defenders in the middle of the field - but, CK doesn't look to the underneath routes.


After the snap, you see the LB taking a deeper drop, looking towards Boldin. The safety, also worried about Boldin's threat - and because CK did keep his head in the middle of the field this time, stays in center field. This does open up a small hole for the skinny post, but it's a tight throw.


You see Ck had Hyde for at least 4-5 yards on the play, and Boldin is gonna be open in a half second. The play design is there to open up at least getting a few yards to give a 3rd and 5 or 4. Instead, Ck sees the small window for a bigger play and tries to fit it in.


It's a tight window - CK gets it there, but Crabs can't make the catch - he did get popped hard on the play and the corner was also there to get in on the play.

It's up to you if he made the right throw or not - personally, I don't like 2nd and long as your time to take a shot. You should at least get something so that you make it easier on 3rd down.

3rd down and 11, 10:21 to go 2nd qtr

We come out in a 2x2 set with Johnson and VD at the bottom and Lloyd and Boldin at the top. The giants give a cover 4 shell look - they'll stay in that defense.



As the play develops, you see how the LB is going to be a tough spot on VD, he has to be aware the the threat from an out breaking route from the RB, but is in a losing situation with inside leverage on VD. Johnson's route will clear out the outside defender as well.


You see VD would've been open - pretty much at the sticks. But, CK - this time, goes to his checkdown - Hyde.


You see how open VD would've been(the corner couldn't see that CK was throwing - that's why he continued to run with Johnson and there's no way the LB stays with VD) and Hyde gets tackled immediately after catching the ball.

Leads to 4th and 5 and a FG.

So, I showed 3 plays in sequence. Each of these had player fails and the team could not respond to a negative play on 1st down. This, and many other sequences like it, are why I come to the conclusions I did in my OP about our team not being able to come out of negative plays and about our QB needing to elevate his game.

It's also hard for me to lay a ton of blame at Roman's feet. I could see a case being made for Solari, or Chryst on those plays, but, hard for me to blame play design. There were plays to be made, yards to gain, we just didn't get em.

Well done jonnydel and I appreciate the context and series of events here...a lot.

That said, while I haven't reviewed the 2nd and 3rd downs in this series (will let the others review), the trend for 1st downs starts this whole series off. An 8-man box, with the MLB's leaning forward getting ready to play down hill. Natually, the OL is outnumbered and we're in 2nd and 11 (see my stats previously). Again, like you noted, it doesn't mean we can't overcome that just outside the RZ on 2nd and 3rd downs but it certainly puts the OL and Gore (running game) and eventually, CK (passing game) behind the 8-ball instantly. And "any" scouting of this offense, a DC is going to play 1st downs this way just about every time (at least 67% of the time). We were watching at the sports bar and you could see the LB's "leaning forward" clearly ready to run blitz and play the run on 1st down.

I'm wondering if anyone has any suggestions for how they'd set the defense up for this DC trend/tendency?
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
That's a very narrow, hopeful analysis. I guess the problems last year were that Crabs was hurt? You can't lay this all on one position, although I agree that vern was home run target last year and not this year. Maybe call less home runs?

Our offensive staff needs to transition to more neutral formations that are less reliant on oveloading the point of attack, run a more balanced pass distribution that includes tight ends and running backs (who are NEVER targeted), and call plays that are situationally appropriate. For example, a 25 yard out isn't a shrewd play to run on 2nd and 11. Think about a 5 yard swing to Frank, setting up a 3rd and manageable. Unless we start to think like that, we will stay one of the ugliest, least productive offenses in the league. And we won't need 5 second pass pro or vern catching a dozen verticals to be competitive.

They do run a lot of counter plays to the weakside of the formation. I agree a lot with the underlined. The little dumpoffs to the RB are there for the taking. The NYG LBs were not impressive to me and Gore/Hyde should have been a focal point of the passing attack, at least in spurts throughout this game. Had they done that, other things start to open up.

Like you said, if it's 2nd & 11 because a running play got stuffed on first down, and there's nothing wrong with trying to run the ball on first down, then just work to get a shorter 3rd down. Third and longs are already hard enough to convert, but now the Oline has to contend with a DL that has their ears pinned back trying to get Kap because everyone knows it's a pass play. If it's 3rd&4, playaction is available. Even a run play is available given how poorly NYG defends the run. There were a number of times where the 49ers went for the long bomb when it was completely unnecessary. Given that they have no speed threat WRs and VD is gimpy, there is no speed threat on the team except for Ellington who hasn't caught anything deep downfield. Yet they still tried several times (I think I counted 4) to try to hit a big play downfield on 2nd down. Wasted down, now they got '3rd and pass it'.

I'm not asking Kap to channel his inner Captain Dumpoff, but there is a happy medium to be had.

100000000% agree. This has been the source of our frustration for a long time now.

That said, if we ever do fire HaRoman and we bring in a WCO system, I have a feeling we'd all be best friends in here instantly. LOL
Originally posted by thl408:
3rd Down Failure #2

1st Down: Gore for -1
2nd Down: Incomplete pass

49ers: Not sure what's going on to Kap's left. Looks rather vanilla. To Kap's right is a clear out by SJ for VD's out route. The whole play looks rather basic, but it got someone open.
NYG: cover 4


Kap drops back and looks to his left. With the CB over Lloyd playing with a large cushion, there's nothing to be had there. Boldin's Curls gets defeated as well. The two DL across from Boone and ADavis just stunted.


Kap looks to his right for a split second before the stunting DT loops around ADavis and has a clear path to Kap.


Kap sees the rusher coming at him and checks down to Hyde over the middle. VD was open along the sidelines, but the pressure didn't allow Kap to see him.







jonnydel alluded to this play earlier in this thread: "To me, when I see a QB miss a read against cover 4 when the defense showed, pre-snap, a 4 shell look and stayed in that look post snap and the QB never looks to the side of the play to beat a cover 4 and has an open TE - it's not a system issue." Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180298-giants-coaches-film-analysis/page5/#6DmL6gWlfU5hVYdk.99

huh?

I'm lost on this one. How does he not look to that side? He scans the whole field on the play but due to the pass rush pulls the trigger quickly. Considering the only guy open was Davis...given his recent struggles I don't blame him for not making the rushed throw to him.

You guys are nitpicking like crazy on that one. Makes it hard to believe there isn't bias sneaking in there.

Also don't you get tired starting your breakdowns of the offense with "not sure what's going on there"?
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Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, agree to disagree, I see VD matched up a LB as a win. That LB, Gore consistently ran away from in the game. He doesn't have great wheels. I think it's no contest that VD gets to the sideline. The only way I see the throw being picked, is if Kap throws the ball way behind VD to the inside.

The Manning pick was a completely different type of play, it was a different route and defense combo all together.

not if the defender is between VD and the ball. Davis can't magically turn the defender into a gaseous state for the ball to pass through.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by VinculumJuris:
You mean take the first down to Lloyd? That would have been the right throw to make. Perfect pass protection, but he didn't give the play long enough to develop or even really look at the right side of the field. That's on Kap...

You can't expect a QB to see everything on the field and you said it yourself he didn't look right. There is blame on him there for not looking there or looking off the DB to give himself a split second extra to get the ball to Crabtree. But at the same time why does the play design have two guys right next to each other? That makes the looks a lot more congested and allows the defender on Boldin to pass him off to the safety and force Kap to make a tougher throw to Crab.

IMO that's part Kap and part Roman. Kap for not reading that the cluster on the left leaves a good matchup on the right but Roman for the poor design to make the first read on the cluttered left side.

I think most of what you said is fair...having Boldin and Crabtree in the same spot is definitely frustrating. Not trying to deflect blame from Roman on that particular point. My comment was more about execution, which is entirely on Kap.

Given that both guys were covered individually and were basically double-covered by proxy, Kap should have moved to the next read. Instead, he forced the ball into what was basically double coverage on a low-percentage throw to a WR who has not been himself lately, AND the pass wouldn't have gone for a first had it been completed. That is piss poor decision making.

I don't expect him to see the entire field at once, but I expect him to exercise good decision making to move from one read to the next. You'll notice that Lloyd's route came open slightly after Crabs and Boldin made their moves. To me, it looks like this play is designed to be read sequentially left to right. Kap never got off his first read, which was a bust no matter how you look at it. The fact that he thought there was a play there to be made is disappointing. Roman had nothing to do with that.
[ Edited by VinculumJuris on Nov 19, 2014 at 9:21 AM ]
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