Originally posted by Giedi:
I saw some very good first down gains by Gore in the Giants game and the New Orleans game. I think our run game is one of the best. The statistics bear that out. Where this offense is having problems is in the passing game, again the stats bear that out. If you compare the NY Giants to the 49er offense, and also look at the game, the Giants were much more consistent and smoother on their offense than ours. I think if you zero in on the TE position, you will see the NY TE's outproduced our TE by a 3 to 1 margin. Just looking at Donnell season (the NY Giants TE) vs VD, and you see him having 40+ catches to VD's 18.
I think aside from the sub par pass protection and constant failure of blitz pickups in the red zone, the TE position and Vernon in particular is really costing this offense. Several times Vernon and Vance were targeted and the failures and misfires left the offense in 3rd down long yardage situations. Not a good thing if you want to keep a drive alive.
Hopefully with the offense playing at home, the offense can actually call audibles and more motions in the game. That may help the red zone blitz pick ups and possible hot route adjustments on weird all or nothing defensive calls by opposing teams. If there is one area of the offense I can point to - that is causing all the offensive breakdowns, it's the lack of the TE production, sub par pass protection by the O Line, and of course Colin's tendency to throw deep instead of getting the sure checkdown pass for positive yardage. You might as well throw in there some of G-ro's badly designed pass plays, but I don't think its as big a factor as failure to execute by the offensive players.
I think you're slightly missing the forrest through the trees here Geidi.
3rd downs are the "money" down but you've got to put yourself in manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd downs to make life easier for your QB, weaker pass protecting OL and own the TOP (if we're focused on the passing game here). Yes, overall, we have a good running game but NOT on 1st downs d/t predictability of play calling. Sometimes we'll take a shot on 1st downs (passing) and that will help our average production but think about it this way: if we're 30th in 1st down production and going
backwards this much (averaging 10.6 & 10.4 yards to go when we don't pick up at least 4 yards), that means we have to hit some pretty big plays on 1st down once in a while to get your average UP to an overall 5.08 yard average;
30th in the NFL. Or some big passing plays to get UP to a 5.33 yard average or some big runs to get UP to a 4.89 yard average.
And yes, even against an 8-10 man run blitzing box, we still do get some 4+ yard gains. That happens with perfect execution and/or individual effort (will); what I call, "The Gore-effect."
But if you want to know why we are outmanned and outnumbered in pass protection on 2nd and 3rd downs, and why CK is often times scrambling for his life or why he almost always has to pass at the 2-2.5 second mark, etc., is forced into 8 of his 12 TD's on broken plays, have zero production in the 2nd halfs of games, etc. it's more often than not, b/c of predictable play calling on 1st downs that perpetually put us in 2nd and 3rd and longs, often times, playing right into a defenses hands (their strengths) esp. if they have any kind of pass rush and/or are aggressive at attacking the LOS. This is why I
don't put 50% of the responsibility on CK as he walks up to 2nd down already behind the 8-ball.
This is why I call this the Anti-WCO. If this was a true WCO offense, 1st down production is THE down that sets up your series of play calling (i.e. how you play chess).
IIRC, when CK checked down to the RB in the middle of the field last game and picked up an easy 8 yards on 1st down, you should have heard the SoCal Niner's Chapter bar go crazy. They "get it." Now your play book is wide open to run/pass/PA.
Again, let's not ignore these stats and just focus on 3rd downs as that is the
end result of poor play calling on 1st downs (coupled with some poor execution as well). You fix that and we're a playoff team. You then fix the RZ problems and we're a Superbowl winning team. Ironically, 1st down production and the RZ are very similar and it's where an OC earn their money:
HaRoman.
Saints Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
2nd and 19
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
Of the 25 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
17 times 25 times of >7 to go averaging 10.6 yards left to go
Giant's Game:
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
Only 19 2nd down opportunities this game:
12 of the 19 times of >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go
[ Edited by NCommand on Nov 19, 2014 at 7:04 AM ]