Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
Originally posted by jedediahyork:
I don't want to start a rookie. I want him to sit for at least two years. I'd rather it be three, but I think two years is enough time to learn the playbook and adjust to the nuances of NFL play.
I don't think Goff is going to pan out in the NFL. I think he's going to be the next Ken Dorsey. Same build, same arm strength, same dink and dunk play. He's got inflated numbers from lighting it up against weak competition, but then against stronger competition, he just doesn't cut it. Dorsey had better credentials coming into the NFL and see what happened?
Dorsey? seriously?
He was a 7th round pick. The only thing him and Goff have in common is they are from the bay area.
Seriously.
Dorsey:
Maxwell Award (2001)
2x Archie Griffin Award (2001–2002)
2x NCAA QB of the Year (2001–2002)
2x Heisman Trophy finalist (2001–2002)
1× BCS National Championship (2001) and 1 BCS Nat'l Championship loss
Rose Bowl Co-MVP
H also broke a whole heap of UofM records.
Goff:
First-team All-Pac-12 (2015)
2015 Armed Forces Bowl MVP
Has broken some single game Cal records, but all against weaker opponents. And a couple single season Cal records, but again, he lit it up against weaker opponents, like the Colorade Buffaloes.
You're seeing a huge inflation of draft position for QBs because QB talent and NFL readiness back then was greater. Dorsey dropped because of concerns over his arm strength. And Goff has a weak arm, just like Dorsey. They're basically the same player. Same build, same arm strength... the only difference is Goff is in a pass first spread attack that let's him pad his stats against weaker competition. Dorsey played in a pro style scheme.
In the 2003 draft, 13 QBs were drafted. In 2002, 16. 2004 was the historical year with Eli Manning, Big Ben, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub... 17 total QBs that year.
Compare that to 2015, 7 QBs. 2014, 11. 2013, 11. Going back to 2010, the highest number of QBs drafted was 13.
Next year, you're looking at maybe 10 or 11 even projected to be drafted, and I'm sure a few of those will drop as the draft approaches. Even less of those will become starters. It's looking to be the draft class of the future backup QBs of the NFL.
[ Edited by jedediahyork on Dec 31, 2015 at 5:33 PM ]