ESPN's QBR Hating against Alex Smith

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Did anbody else notice in those Alex Smith Highlights (the long ones) how many times Alex was flushed from the pocket but still made plays? The O-line was really bad at pass protection last season - there is no way around this. Of course the highlights don't show all the sacks, and incompletions. Think about that for a minute. alex was running for his life for a good portion of the season - often without any blitzing on the part of the defense.

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Qbr is bs he got a 20 after eagles game

Originally posted by oldman9er:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Did anbody else notice in those Alex Smith Highlights (the long ones) how many times Alex was flushed from the pocket but still made plays? The O-line was really bad at pass protection last season - there is no way around this. Of course the highlights don't show all the sacks, and incompletions. Think about that for a minute. alex was running for his life for a good portion of the season - often without any blitzing on the part of the defense.

I think about it every time I watch other team's games. I start to count the seconds of their QB even having to make any rushed decision.

... and then I do this ---->

All I can hope is that such terrible experiences will make Alex an elite QB when the OL does actually provide the 4+ seconds other QBs are getting.

Originally posted by sincalfaithful:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Qbr is bs he got a 20 after eagles game

How the hell does that work?

The San Francisco 49ers quarterback posted a 99.8 QBR during the third quarter of his team's memorable comeback victory at Philadelphia in Week 4. It was the second-best quarter for a quarterback Sunday and enough, with a huge fumble recovery from the 49ers' defense, for the 49ers to prevail 24-23.

But that one quarter and the 49ers' ultimate victory could not prevent Smith from finishing with a 28.7 QBR overall. That is partly because running backs Kendall Hunter and Frank Gore scored the pivotal touchdowns late in the game, whereas Smith's touchdown passes came when the 49ers were still trailing by wider margins.

QBR measures performance in part by taking into account win probability from play to play. The plays that improve win probability the most impact QBR scores far more than similar plays in less critical situations.

For example, Smith's scoring pass to Josh Morgan with 7:20 left in the third quarter improved the 49ers' win probability from 2.9 percent to 6.3 percent, based on how similar plays in similar situations have affected outcomes previously. The probability improved from 12.2 percent to 19.1 percent with Smith's scoring pass to Vernon Davis later in the quarter.

The touchdowns from Hunter and Gore each improved the 49ers' chances by more than 10 percent, but the 49ers' win probability still stood at only 51.1 percent after Gore's touchdown.

"This gave the 49ers the lead, but still left three minutes for the Eagles, who needed only a field goal to win," Albert Larcada of the ESPN analytics team explained. "Jeremy Maclin's fumble sent the 49ers' win probability from 39.7 percent to 74.9 percent, by far the biggest swing in the game. Obviously, Alex Smith had nothing to do with that swing."

After the Maclin fumble, Gore ran the ball five times as the 49ers put away the game. Smith completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards and no first downs with a sack in the fourth quarter, costing his team about one expected point.

"So, essentially, Smith started the 49ers' comeback with a great third quarter, but that was only enough to get the 49ers to roughly a 20 percent win probability," Larcada said. "From there, Smith had very little to do with the 20 percent becoming 100 percent."

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
The only Stat that mattered about Alex Smith last year was 13-3. Who cares about what any other stat said.

Originally posted by SocalAgent0:

Originally posted by oldman9er:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Did anbody else notice in those Alex Smith Highlights (the long ones) how many times Alex was flushed from the pocket but still made plays? The O-line was really bad at pass protection last season - there is no way around this. Of course the highlights don't show all the sacks, and incompletions. Think about that for a minute. alex was running for his life for a good portion of the season - often without any blitzing on the part of the defense.

I think about it every time I watch other team's games. I start to count the seconds of their QB even having to make any rushed decision.

... and then I do this ---->

All I can hope is that such terrible experiences will make Alex an elite QB when the OL does actually provide the 4+ seconds other QBs are getting.

I watch Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and they have forever to throw, when they step up in the pocket RG C LG they are not hit and their tackles push the guys up field and they have clean pockets to deliver usually to wide open WR's... I think with Moss and a healthy Crabtree we could start to see the same! *I also think Boone will be a big improvement at RG, he has a nasty streak you need for guards*

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
The only Stat that mattered about Alex Smith last year was 13-3. Who cares about what any other stat said.

This isnt the "49ers are 13-3" thread. This is the "ESPN QBR hating against Alex" thread. We are discussing a specific topic here. If what you just wrote is the only thing that matters (as far as message board posting is concerned), what would be the point of having a message board to begin with? What you just wrote can literally be written in every single thread related to current/2011 Niner topics.

Originally posted by oldman9er:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Did anbody else notice in those Alex Smith Highlights (the long ones) how many times Alex was flushed from the pocket but still made plays? The O-line was really bad at pass protection last season - there is no way around this. Of course the highlights don't show all the sacks, and incompletions. Think about that for a minute. alex was running for his life for a good portion of the season - often without any blitzing on the part of the defense.

I think about it every time I watch other team's games. I start to count the seconds of their QB even having to make any rushed decision.

... and then I do this ---->

All I can hope is that such terrible experiences will make Alex an elite QB when the OL does actually provide the 4+ seconds other QBs are getting.

Originally posted by NCommand:
This...not sure why this is downplayed so much by the WZ esp when your QB leads the league in pressures under 3 seconds. The OL is, was and will be critical to ANY playmaking, or lack thereof, no matter how many we have on the field. Period.

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
The only Stat that mattered about Alex Smith last year was 13-3. Who cares about what any other stat said.

This isnt the "49ers are 13-3" thread. This is the "ESPN QBR hating against Alex" thread. We are discussing a specific topic here. If what you just wrote is the only thing that matters (as far as message board posting is concerned), what would be the point of having a message board to begin with? What you just wrote can literally be written in every single thread related to current/2011 Niner topics.

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
The only Stat that mattered about Alex Smith last year was 13-3. Who cares about what any other stat said.

This isnt the "49ers are 13-3" thread. This is the "ESPN QBR hating against Alex" thread. We are discussing a specific topic here. If what you just wrote is the only thing that matters (as far as message board posting is concerned), what would be the point of having a message board to begin with? What you just wrote can literally be written in every single thread related to current/2011 Niner topics.

to me this is a pointless thread because it doesn't change the way the next NFL season is played, it doesn't change any ones perception on Alex Smith or the 49ers. ESPN makes mistakes all the time if you watch there shows and read there articles enough it happens. The QBR was made so ESPN can really have a love affair with elite QB. So do really think Alex Smith was going to have these stats be favorable,

Originally posted by SocalAgent0:

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:

Originally posted by 80sbaby24:

Originally posted by 49erstrandedinclev:
The only Stat that mattered about Alex Smith last year was 13-3. Who cares about what any other stat said.

This isnt the "49ers are 13-3" thread. This is the "ESPN QBR hating against Alex" thread. We are discussing a specific topic here. If what you just wrote is the only thing that matters (as far as message board posting is concerned), what would be the point of having a message board to begin with? What you just wrote can literally be written in every single thread related to current/2011 Niner topics.

to me this is a pointless thread because it doesn't change the way the next NFL season is played, it doesn't change any ones perception on Alex Smith or the 49ers. ESPN makes mistakes all the time if you watch there shows and read there articles enough it happens. The QBR was made so ESPN can really have a love affair with elite QB. So do really think Alex Smith was going to have these stats be favorable,

I wasnt looking for favorable, I was looking for correct, they doubled up his Baltimore game which was a 15 and left out the Tampa Bay game which was a 97, big mistake which heavly sqews the numbers...