Avoiding the Sophomore Slump: Can Harbaugh Do It?

The defense is back. Just say'n

The 49ers will slump, it can't be avoided, their schedule next year is brutal. With that said how you finsih is more important than how you start. Look at the past two SB winners. The packers and giants well and came together at the end. Even the niners with Steve Young buckled in the begining, but resurected themselves later.

Good points. The injuries and turnovers aspects worry me the most. We were really lucky we didn't sustain any serious injuries to key players throughout the season. Not having a normal offseason might have had something to do with that...

And I just don't see the D duplicating the number of turnovers. Picks and fumbles are kind of fluky by nature. It's not something you can expect a defense to do year-in and year-out with the same amount of efficiency...

Maybe "slump" isn't the right word, but rather a tempering of expectations. This is still a flawed team, but they are very, very strong in areas they are not.

I do expect some kind of a slump, by that I do not expect that the team goes back to 2010 mode. We could end up 10-6, which would be a slump after 13-3.
Roster depth has to be adressed, especially on the D-line. Justin Smith is someone who does not have a good back up, if he goes down that could become a major problem.

What I do expect is a heavily improved offence in it red zone and 3rd down efficency.

Originally posted by JeuSF49:
I do expect some kind of a slump, by that I do not expect that the team goes back to 2010 mode. We could end up 10-6, which would be a slump after 13-3.
Roster depth has to be adressed, especially on the D-line. Justin Smith is someone who does not have a good back up, if he goes down that could become a major problem.

What I do expect is a heavily improved offence in it red zone and 3rd down efficency.

Your point about Smith is a good one. Ricky Jean Francois seems like the primary backup at all 3 defensive line positions, and he's shown some flashes of ability but certainly you'd expect a dropoff from Smith's level of play. I almost wonder if they wouldn't switch to a different style of defense to accomodate the change.

Perhaps playing more nickel and put Haralson and Brooks at the d-end positions would work, or Aldon Smith for that matte.r

We make the playoffs, but no way in hell we get a 'bye' for another couple of seasons, but as history shows... not getting a bye will bode well for us towards winning it all.

I agree, I don't think we will get to 13-3 - the schedule and odds of repeating the turnover numbers are too much.

BUT, BUT, I would be happy with a much lesser record (11-5, even 10-6) if the team
#1 showed much better offensive play
#2 got better down the stretch and took that momentum into the play-offs.

Directly to your point about JH able to avoid a sophmore slump -- This will be a very revealing test -- which per above I don't think their record will be the key indicator. IF he comes out with an improved offense in 2012 I will have confidence that he can keep the team pogressing and wouldn't count a lesser record as a slump. If on the other hand, the team flounders around with the same offense and the defense gives up big plays, and the team has no answers for opponents that seem to "have their number" (like the Baltimore game) -- then that would be a more than a sophmore slump, that would be a serious cause for concern.

My expectation - based on how focused the team was and how much they squeezed out of existing talent without a full installation and experience in their schemes -- I doubt they will have a slump. I expect they did a comprehensive job of self scouting in their first year with the roster and have a great idea what they need to take the next step this coming year.

Lastly, the one area of focus that I expect from JH this year is on getting ASmith to play loose -- have some willingness to make tight throws. If Smith can't improve the passing game over last year -- even if he throws a lot more INTs -- then they will be making a transition to a new QB, possibly even mid-season. That is why it is so important that this contract not handicap the team too much.

Nothinng cocky about the moves at all! Good post BTW.
Everything these guys do is calculated. They sign low risk - high reward players that don't hurt the cap. Look what incredible value we got out of Rogers last seaon. Braylon sucked and it didn't cost us poop. Costanzo paid off big time and they didn't overpay to keep him. Miller was a 7th rounder who iis starting.

I feel Moss wants 2 things: A). A Super Bowl ring and B). To go out on a high note not like a bum - which is how he went out the last time. So, I think he'll be reallly motivated.

Sophomore Slump - hard to define exactly. We had an easier scchedule last season and went 13-3. This year w/ a tougher schedule if we go 11-5 would you consider that a slump?

I wouldn't. Evene if we are 9-7 and win the SBowl it won't be a slump by any means.

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Nothinng cocky about the moves at all! Good post BTW.
Everything these guys do is calculated. They sign low risk - high reward players that don't hurt the cap. Look what incredible value we got out of Rogers last seaon. Braylon sucked and it didn't cost us poop. Costanzo paid off big time and they didn't overpay to keep him. Miller was a 7th rounder who iis starting.

I feel Moss wants 2 things: A). A Super Bowl ring and B). To go out on a high note not like a bum - which is how he went out the last time. So, I think he'll be reallly motivated.

Sophomore Slump - hard to define exactly. We had an easier scchedule last season and went 13-3. This year w/ a tougher schedule if we go 11-5 would you consider that a slump?

I wouldn't. Evene if we are 9-7 and win the SBowl it won't be a slump by any means.

Yes 9-7 and a Super Bowl would be just fine. I wouldn't complain even a little bit.

Originally posted by Lott49ersFan:
Do bears s**t in the woods?

We have confirmation. That is a yes.

Sophomore Swag

Cox helps us against the deep pass. Defense has improved. Offense not looking any worse as long as Smith signs. Schedule will be tougher, but I expect our offense to improve with experience so hopefully it negates this. Our ST can't improve, most likely will regress, but I imagine not by much and any regression will be made up for with less incredibly stupid plays on returns.

Originally posted by jesserdumas2:
I don't disagree with anything you said here. But getting to 8-1 (which is more than half the season) I think was largely predicated on teams not knowing what to expect and underestimating the talent on both sides of the ball. It was in the second half of the season that they lost the other two games. One of them badly to a well coached Baltimore team.

baltimore was a schedule loss. we meet them on a full week of rest or even after a MNF game and they win. hell they almost won anyway with 2 bad calls going against them.

Man this is some of the longest and most boring posts I have tried to read in a while. I lost concentration after a minute. Sophomore slump, prob. Last year was a once in 10 years opportunity. I think if we even make the playoffs next year would be an accomplishment. With a full off-season for every team, I expect them all to play better. And I really don't think we have done anything to improve our offense enough to make a difference.The obvious position of need has been completely ignored due to some kind of Money Ball type system. I support but just don't think next season will even be half as satisfying as last year was.