If Kaepernick is going to be the long-term answer at QB anyway, why keep Smith?

If Kaep is going to be the long-term answer at QB anyway, why keep Smith?

Inspired by the thread at NinersNation.com, if Colin Kaepernick is going to be the long-term guy at QB for the 49ers -- evident by the rumored of 2 or 3 year contract offers for Alex Smith -- why are we not going after Peyton Manning? If we're going to sign a guy that can start for 2 years and then hand it over to Kaep, Manning would be a better choice, right?

Of course, this is conceding that Kaep *is* the long-term answer. Alex Smith is young enough to have another 8 - 10 years in him...if so, why is the franchise offering 2 or 3 year contracts? Is it because they don't think he's the answer? There's a chance that the 49ers and Smith agent Tom Condon are miles apart and nobody wants to talk about it. If the 49ers are putting a 3-year, $25m offer on the table, and Condon wants a Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque 6-year, $60m deal -- and Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel got similar 6-year deals, *what* are the chances he walks?

Door #1: Alex Smith gets a long-term deal, Kaep remains the backup, and we trade Kaep down the line or Kaep takes over if Smith regresses or gets hurt

Door #2: Alex Smith gets a 2 or 3 year contract and loses his job to Kaepernick in 2013 if he doesn't have a pro bowl season in 2012

Door #3: Sign Peyton Manning to a 2-year, $30m contract with the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick starts in 2014

Door #4: Let Alex Smith go *and* pass on Peyton Manning. Hand the job to Kaep in '12, sign some big name WRs -- and see what happens.

http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/3/7/2851196/49ers-qb-position-alex-smith-colin-kaepernick-peyton-manning

Oh look another Peyton Manning, Alex Smith thread

Originally posted by valrod33:
Oh look another Peyton Manning, Alex Smith thread

No, its about Kaepernick and the long-term plans of the franchise

This is going to get interesting, but I believe Alex signs for a 3 to 4 year contract. I don't really think the length of the contract really matters too much. Its more of a statement, and I believe its a statement that Alex would like to hear from the Niners.

Just look up the statistics on the success rate of QB's drafted in the 2nd round. THAT is why it cannot be "conceded" that Kaep is the long term answer at QB.

I don't think he was ever considered the QB of the future. Just because he was a 2nd round pick doesn't mean he was picked to be the starter ever.

This is why the club most likely wont budge off of its 3 yr offer to alex, most likely loaded with escalators. If Alex doesnt perform in comes CK, Im excited to see CK with a steady line and a year in the offensive playbook this preseason. Hopefully he's a smart-mans Nate Davis.

He's still a big question mark in my opinion

Because in the NFL you can cut a player before all years have been played on a contract.

Originally posted by daragon:
This is going to get interesting, but I believe Alex signs for a 3 to 4 year contract. I don't really think the length of the contract really matters too much. Its more of a statement, and I believe its a statement that Alex would like to hear from the Niners.

A statement contract for Alex would be what mediocre QBs Fitzpatrick, Kolb, and Cassel all got: 6-years, about $60m

none of them are better than Alex Smith, so anything short of that would be a slap in the face.

Originally posted by 5280High:
This is why the club most likely wont budge off of its 3 yr offer to alex, most likely loaded with escalators. If Alex doesnt perform in comes CK, Im excited to see CK with a steady line and a year in the offensive playbook this preseason. Hopefully he's a smart-mans Nate Davis.

If you let Alex Smith walk, we'd have like $35m in cap room for 2012, can sign (2) marquee receivers, and lock-up/front-load all of our superstars.

IMO you shouldn't just say we'd sign Manning, sure Manning is a HOF QB but he is one good licking away from a broken neck or concussion that would end his career. Even if we signed him a $2M base contract with $30M in incentives it makes no sense to add in such a wildcard.

If by some strange incident Alex leaves us we will probably push for Josh Johnson as another stop gap for Kaepernick. But yes Alex could have another 10 years in SF if he continues to improve and leads us to a super bowl or 2. So I understand the confusion as to why we apparently aren't willing to give him a 5 year deal when we think he is the guy, even if we sign him to this "mega deal" we can always cut him in a 2 or 3 years and he will miss out on a huge chunk of cash.

I personally dont think it is the length but the way the deal is structure that is holding it up. I'm not a reporter and I dont have the "sources" that these guys have but Baalke obviously likes backloaded or incentive based deals with a good chunk of guaranteed cash up front so maybe Tom Condon is looking at a 5 year 30M deal with a 8M signing bonus but only a 2M base salary for the next 3 years and then all of a sudden his salary sky rockets to 8M during the 4th and 5th years when Alex would be very expendable if Kaepernick has progressed. I think Alex and Condon want an evenly structured long term deal more then simply having a long term deal. Alex probably wants to actually get 6 or 7M a year not just average but actually per year.

But again to reiterate if we somehow lost Alex Smith to free agency we would probably sign Josh Johnson to stopgap for Kaepernick.

EDIT: I personally hold the belief that Kaepernick was drafted because of his potential and was probably the best prospect for JH to work with besides Dalton but also as an effort to simply appease the fan base and show them that "the 9ers are planning for a future without Alex Smith". IMHO I wouldn't bat an eyelash if a blue chip 1st round QB fell to us in the 1st in the next 2 or 3 years and we took him and traded Kaepernick. Just because we took a QB during Harbaugh's first year as a coach does not make him the QB of the future for us.

Originally posted by sfout:
IMO you shouldn't just say we'd sign Manning, sure Manning is a HOF QB but he is one good licking away from a broken neck or concussion that would end his career. Even if we signed him a $2M base contract with $30M in incentives it makes no sense to add in such a wildcard.

If by some strange incident Alex leaves us we will probably push for Josh Johnson as another stop gap for Kaepernick. But yes Alex could have another 10 years in SF if he continues to improve and leads us to a super bowl or 2. So I understand the confusion as to why we apparently aren't willing to give him a 5 year deal when we think he is the guy, even if we sign him to this "mega deal" we can always cut him in a 2 or 3 years and he will miss out on a huge chunk of cash.

I personally dont think it is the length but the way the deal is structure that is holding it up. I'm not a reporter and I dont have the "sources" that these guys have but Baalke obviously likes backloaded or incentive based deals with a good chunk of guaranteed cash up front so maybe Tom Condon is looking at a 5 year 30M deal with a 8M signing bonus but only a 2M base salary for the next 3 years and then all of a sudden his salary sky rockets to 8M during the 4th and 5th years when Alex would be very expendable if Kaepernick has progressed. I think Alex and Condon want an evenly structured long term deal more then simply having a long term deal. Alex probably wants to actually get 6 or 7M a year not just average but actually per year.

But again to reiterate if we somehow lost Alex Smith to free agency we would probably sign Josh Johnson to stopgap for Kaepernick.

why would alex walk? I can't imagine any other team bidding for his starting qb services

I work at 24 hr fitness over here in Livermore and this huge guy came in the other day with a wolf pack football workout shirt on and I asked of he played football for Nevada and he said yeah that he played o line with kaep. He said harbaughs cousin is a coach on the wolfpacks football team and that is how he found out about kaep in the first place. Also he said he doesn't think kaep will ever do anything in the nfl. He said even if he starts that he prolly wouldn't be any good. I'm not agreeing with him but I thought it was interesting that someone that played with him said this

Originally posted by sfout:
IMO you shouldn't just say we'd sign Manning, sure Manning is a HOF QB but he is one good licking away from a broken neck or concussion that would end his career. Even if we signed him a $2M base contract with $30M in incentives it makes no sense to add in such a wildcard.

If by some strange incident Alex leaves us we will probably push for Josh Johnson as another stop gap for Kaepernick. But yes Alex could have another 10 years in SF if he continues to improve and leads us to a super bowl or 2. So I understand the confusion as to why we apparently aren't willing to give him a 5 year deal when we think he is the guy, even if we sign him to this "mega deal" we can always cut him in a 2 or 3 years and he will miss out on a huge chunk of cash.

I personally dont think it is the length but the way the deal is structure that is holding it up. I'm not a reporter and I dont have the "sources" that these guys have but Baalke obviously likes backloaded or incentive based deals with a good chunk of guaranteed cash up front so maybe Tom Condon is looking at a 5 year 30M deal with a 8M signing bonus but only a 2M base salary for the next 3 years and then all of a sudden his salary sky rockets to 8M during the 4th and 5th years when Alex would be very expendable if Kaepernick has progressed. I think Alex and Condon want an evenly structured long term deal more then simply having a long term deal. Alex probably wants to actually get 6 or 7M a year not just average but actually per year.

But again to reiterate if we somehow lost Alex Smith to free agency we would probably sign Josh Johnson to stopgap for Kaepernick.

5-years, $30m? Who is he, Matt Hasselback? Matty-H is getting $20m over 3 years and he's in his late 30s.

stop insulting Alex Smith