49ers Salary Cap - Math

Originally posted by fip24:
Dashon did turn deon 2 for 25 last year but clearly nobody offered him more. I get he is coming off a monster season but if he wants to stay as bad as he says than 5 or 6 m per should get the job done. Also, I'm not sure how Alex can play harball w/ the Niners. I'm not certain he draw much if any interest elsewhere. My thought is that 4 for 28m gets us a QB, maybe Alex or maybe K Orton. Agreed that Brooks may get overpaid. If that happens, let him walk and don't cut Parys and we would actually save 2m on my projection

I object. Alex, Ahmad, and especially Dashon played well this year.

You want to low ball all three of them. That is a good way to build a team.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
His age is the one thing working in our favor I think. If he was younger he could get $9 - $10 million per year. But he will be 31. So despite the amazing season I think $6 million per year is somewhat reasonable. If he wants $7 million + let him walk. We can't afford a 31 year old CB worth that much cap space IMO.

Agreed. Carlos had a terrific year, but committing too much money and years to free agents isn't part of the new plan. Plus, I think we're all overlooking the role of Ed Donatell in the success of our secondary. The guy is possibly the best DBs coach in the entire NFL. We should all be looking forward to the continued development of Tarell Brown, Chris Culliver, and Tramaine Brock under his watch. Donatell worked wonders with them with an abbreviated offseason. They should take huge steps forward in year 2. And if we can improve the pass rush (which I think will be a priority for Fangio), the secondary won't have to work as hard.

It'd be great to bring Carlos back at a reasonable price, but we'll be fine with or without him. There are very few irreplaceable players in the NFL.

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
We are forgetting that some of the FA they will be signing even though may come out to 5,6,7, or 8 mil a year including bonuses, but the way the contract is structured it may count much less per year against the salary cap.

Yes, the OP acknowledges the structuring issue.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Morgan for $3 million. You gotta be kidding. He's not worth anything near to that. Alex will probably cost more. Scrub FA QB's were getting in the neighborhood of $10 million a year last year. He was 9th in QB rating, went 14 - 4, and led his team to the NFC Championship game. No reason to think he gets less. I'd like Brooks back but I doubt we can afford him.

You're right - $3MM for Morgan is too high. I did say that it will probably be a 1 year deal because he would have been a FA this year. But I think the staff really likes him and they did say bringing him back was a priority.

Yes, FA QBs got over paid last year - I could see ASmith theoretically being in the >$10MM a year category, but based on 1 year, I just don't think they are going to give him a crazy money contract. Maybe an incentive laden contract that could earn out at $12MM a year, but I would hope his cap number is far less.

Originally posted by HearstFan:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Morgan for $3 million. You gotta be kidding. He's not worth anything near to that. Alex will probably cost more. Scrub FA QB's were getting in the neighborhood of $10 million a year last year. He was 9th in QB rating, went 14 - 4, and led his team to the NFC Championship game. No reason to think he gets less. I'd like Brooks back but I doubt we can afford him.

You're right - $3MM for Morgan is too high. I did say that it will probably be a 1 year deal because he would have been a FA this year. But I think the staff really likes him and they did say bringing him back was a priority.

Yes, FA QBs got over paid last year - I could see ASmith theoretically being in the >$10MM a year category, but based on 1 year, I just don't think they are going to give him a crazy money contract. Maybe an incentive laden contract that could earn out at $12MM a year, but I would hope his cap number is far less.

Also kind of high for Ginn, He's a good returner, but even he took a pay cut last season.

Originally posted by fip24:
Here is the way I would like to see it...By most account the team has 30m to spend as a starting pt
1) cut Harlson and Spencer raising cap space to 36.1m
2) Extend Justin Smith and restructure Sopo,Pat, Vernon,Aikers and some of the other core players. lets say we pick up 4m this way..40.1
3)Take care of ST.. sign Costanzo 2 yr 1.5 per ,Spillman 2yr 1m per and Ginn 2yr 5m (5m in expense) 35.1
4) 4m for rookies 31.1
5) Brooks 4 yr 3.5 per 27.6
6) Dashon 5 ys @ 5m per 22.6
7) Alex Smith 4ys @ 7m per 15.6
8) Offer 7m per to a CB (Carlos, Finnegan Grimes or Carr) 8.6
9) 5m per to a 2nd tier FA WR. This might get us Garcon,Wayne,Manningham or Meachem 3.6 left
10) 3.6 per for Ben Grubbs?????
---I get this isn't exact as some of the new contracts will be structured to pay more or less than in year and that the front office will want some cushion to carry into the offseason.

Thanks for your detail.
#1 - I don't think we will cut Haralson until we have clarity on Brooks, so it will be hard to get the savings ahead of FA period in that case.
#2 - Would also love to see us extend Bowman as he'll be a FA next year, but that would eat major space this year. But he is massively outplaying his rookie contract, which might be an issue for him.
#4 - Sounds good - would you put Grant here too?
#5 - I think we'll be outbid at that number for Brooks -- he'll be at least near $5MM per year I think.
#6 - He turned down 5yr @$25MM before his monster year, I think he'll be in the >$30MM range now - so we Franchise him at $6.6MM per year.
#7 - I how they get an incentive laden structure that works out to $8MM base per year against cap -- but I suspect it will be more. If it is, it will be a huge vote of confidence by organization that he is long-term plan. I doubt they're that convinced yet.
#8 - Good plan
#9 - Really don't want another 2nd tier FA WR again, we have been doing that for years! ABryant, Morton, Bruce, Edwards, etc, etc. I'd really like to see a spend here for a true threat - VJackson, Bowe, or Colston (although he has an injury history), maybe Meecham -- someone with size to convert 3rd downs and be a redzone producer! Meecham might do more without so many targets competing for the ball.

Originally posted by TheGoldDiggerrrr:
Also kind of high for Ginn, He's a good returner, but even he took a pay cut last season.

Agree - I just think they are going to err on the side of paying too much after the debacle of KWilliams game - LOL

Originally posted by HearstFan:

Originally posted by fip24:
Here is the way I would like to see it...By most account the team has 30m to spend as a starting pt
1) cut Harlson and Spencer raising cap space to 36.1m
2) Extend Justin Smith and restructure Sopo,Pat, Vernon,Aikers and some of the other core players. lets say we pick up 4m this way..40.1
3)Take care of ST.. sign Costanzo 2 yr 1.5 per ,Spillman 2yr 1m per and Ginn 2yr 5m (5m in expense) 35.1
4) 4m for rookies 31.1
5) Brooks 4 yr 3.5 per 27.6
6) Dashon 5 ys @ 5m per 22.6
7) Alex Smith 4ys @ 7m per 15.6
8) Offer 7m per to a CB (Carlos, Finnegan Grimes or Carr) 8.6
9) 5m per to a 2nd tier FA WR. This might get us Garcon,Wayne,Manningham or Meachem 3.6 left
10) 3.6 per for Ben Grubbs?????
---I get this isn't exact as some of the new contracts will be structured to pay more or less than in year and that the front office will want some cushion to carry into the offseason.

Thanks for your detail.
#1 - I don't think we will cut Haralson until we have clarity on Brooks, so it will be hard to get the savings ahead of FA period in that case.
#2 - Would also love to see us extend Bowman as he'll be a FA next year, but that would eat major space this year. But he is massively outplaying his rookie contract, which might be an issue for him.
#4 - Sounds good - would you put Grant here too?
#5 - I think we'll be outbid at that number for Brooks -- he'll be at least near $5MM per year I think.
#6 - He turned down 5yr @$25MM before his monster year, I think he'll be in the >$30MM range now - so we Franchise him at $6.6MM per year.
#7 - I how they get an incentive laden structure that works out to $8MM base per year against cap -- but I suspect it will be more. If it is, it will be a huge vote of confidence by organization that he is long-term plan. I doubt they're that convinced yet.
#8 - Good plan
#9 - Really don't want another 2nd tier FA WR again, we have been doing that for years! ABryant, Morton, Bruce, Edwards, etc, etc. I'd really like to see a spend here for a true threat - VJackson, Bowe, or Colston (although he has an injury history), maybe Meecham -- someone with size to convert 3rd downs and be a redzone producer! Meecham might do more without so many targets competing for the ball.

Bowman has 2 years left. This was his second year and he signed a 4 year rookie contract. No need to worry about him just yet. After this year if he plays at that level again.

Originally posted by SportsFan:
Bowman has 2 years left. This was his second year and he signed a 4 year rookie contract. No need to worry about him just yet. After this year if he plays at that level again.

If we can afford it, I dont think it would be a bad idea to give him a good faith raise, kind of like we did with Gore after his big year. It doesn't have to be a long term deal, but something that says, "hey we realize you are balling for us right now." That could go a long way later.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by SportsFan:
Bowman has 2 years left. This was his second year and he signed a 4 year rookie contract. No need to worry about him just yet. After this year if he plays at that level again.

If we can afford it, I dont think it would be a bad idea to give him a good faith raise, kind of like we did with Gore after his big year. It doesn't have to be a long term deal, but something that says, "hey we realize you are balling for us right now." That could go a long way later.

True. If we have some money left over I would all be for throwing some scratch his way to grease the wheels down the road.

I dont think we can let Brooks or Haralson out the door. There is no next man up for that position. We have three legit outside linebackers on the roster right now. If we let one walk there is no back up for that postion at all. There isnt even a guy on the practice squad. Brooks has to be a big priority signing, maybe the biggest priorty on the defensive side of the ball, there just arent as many OLB's available as there are CB's, WR's and Safties. Its telling that they wont let Donatel interview elsewhere, they are preparing for losses in the secondary to keep the front seven intact.

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
I dont think we can let Brooks or Haralson out the door. There is no next man up for that position. We have three legit outside linebackers on the roster right now. If we let one walk there is no back up for that postion at all. There isnt even a guy on the practice squad. Brooks has to be a big priority signing, maybe the biggest priorty on the defensive side of the ball, there just arent as many OLB's available as there are CB's, WR's and Safties. Its telling that they wont let Donatel interview elsewhere, they are preparing for losses in the secondary to keep the front seven intact.

We have $39 M in cap room. As Maiocco noted today, the first-year values of long-term deals are often well below the average annual value. The example he used was that we signed Whitner, Akers, McDonald, and Goodwin to multi-year deals last offseason and they only cost us around $9 M combined against the 2011 cap.

We are in excellent position going into free agency. If we lose anyone, it will be because we decided to let them walk, not because we couldn't afford them. For example, we can afford to pay Rogers whatever he wants, but we may very well decide that his value doesn't match his demands or that we don't want to commit big money to an aging corner. If that's the case, we'll have plenty of money to find a replacement at corner and upgrade other positions as well.