Yes, Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL | Page 2

nickbradley · 2012-01-21T12:09:38-08:00

I've heard for years that yards per point, or YPP, is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL, and that oddsmakers and professional sports bettors have been using the method for quite some time. The logic is that net YPP takes into account ALL aspects of the game, offense, defense, special teams, red zone performance, turnovers, and field position. Since I can't wait for Sunday, I crunched the numbers today. The 49ers had the #1 net YPP in the NFL regular season in 2011, which essentially means that the 49ers were the MOST COMPLETE TEAM IN THE NFL; Net YPP is defensive YPP allowed minus offensive YPP gained. This playoffs, every team with a better in-game net YPP won the game. Comparing total season Net YPP vs. winning percentage for teams that have made the playoffs, a linear regression yields an R^2 of over 0.8, which is very strong. If you add in Tennessee, it still stays above 0.8. And if you limit the data to the 20 teams that finished .500 or better, the R^2 is still 0.67. If you dig into YPP, things begin to make sense. For example, the Patriots is #2 in YPP allowed (19.4 YPP) after the 49ers at 21. Both teams have incredible bend but don't break defense. For offense, the lower the number the better. The 49ers were #2 in the NFL in offensive YPP after the Packers, 12.9 and 11.8. The 49ers scored a point every. The Giants are 29th in Net YPP this year, an outlier. Net YPP is only 0.33, but they're a league best 14.73 in the playoffs. Keep in mind that most of that metric comes from a whopping 105 Net YPP from the Atlanta game. I firmly believe they will deviate back to the mean for the season. Playoff teams all revert back to their mean -- the Giants would be the only team NOT to do this...you can have one bad game (e.g. the 2011 Packers), but you can't just have an amazing playoffs. It doesn't work like that.

Yes, Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL

Jan 21, 2012 at 2:33 PM

#16

KowboyKiller
Veteran
Posts: 6,991

Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:
Too bad the retards in the media can't comprehend this. Oh well.

They must have seen that stat that show this new Giants team, the one that new and just totally different than before now has the highest YPP than the old one we beat.

Jan 21, 2012 at 2:41 PM

#17

Snider8706
Veteran
Posts: 3,397

Brool Cory sto

Jan 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

#18

ClassicNiner
Veteran
Posts: 827

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

Interesting findings.

In 2007, Offensive YPP stayed the same for the Giants going from the regular season to the postseason at about 14 YPP. On Defense, they went from about 14 YPP allowed in the regular season to 17.6 YPP in the postseason. Not a huge jump...they played about the same.

In 2011, the Giants have gone from 13.5 to 15 on offense, modest but nothing to write home about. But on defense, they have jumped from 15.5 to nearly 29! This is unheard of, doubling average performance on defense.

Thanks! I would guess that YPP are less influenced by bad weather than most stats. On a rainy windy day in a low scoring game, a couple of fluke plays can make the difference, plays that might defy the usual stats. But if it comes down to turnovers, I like our chances!

Jan 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

#19

ClassicNiner
Veteran
Posts: 827

Originally posted by 1251alex:
or when the Colts won it in 2006.

Yeah, their D got it together remarkably right at the end of the season.

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Yes, Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL