Yes, Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL

nickbradley · 2012-01-21T12:09:38-08:00

I've heard for years that yards per point, or YPP, is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL, and that oddsmakers and professional sports bettors have been using the method for quite some time. The logic is that net YPP takes into account ALL aspects of the game, offense, defense, special teams, red zone performance, turnovers, and field position. Since I can't wait for Sunday, I crunched the numbers today. The 49ers had the #1 net YPP in the NFL regular season in 2011, which essentially means that the 49ers were the MOST COMPLETE TEAM IN THE NFL; Net YPP is defensive YPP allowed minus offensive YPP gained. This playoffs, every team with a better in-game net YPP won the game. Comparing total season Net YPP vs. winning percentage for teams that have made the playoffs, a linear regression yields an R^2 of over 0.8, which is very strong. If you add in Tennessee, it still stays above 0.8. And if you limit the data to the 20 teams that finished .500 or better, the R^2 is still 0.67. If you dig into YPP, things begin to make sense. For example, the Patriots is #2 in YPP allowed (19.4 YPP) after the 49ers at 21. Both teams have incredible bend but don't break defense. For offense, the lower the number the better. The 49ers were #2 in the NFL in offensive YPP after the Packers, 12.9 and 11.8. The 49ers scored a point every. The Giants are 29th in Net YPP this year, an outlier. Net YPP is only 0.33, but they're a league best 14.73 in the playoffs. Keep in mind that most of that metric comes from a whopping 105 Net YPP from the Atlanta game. I firmly believe they will deviate back to the mean for the season. Playoff teams all revert back to their mean -- the Giants would be the only team NOT to do this...you can have one bad game (e.g. the 2011 Packers), but you can't just have an amazing playoffs. It doesn't work like that.

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:12 PM

mod
Veteran
Posts: 42,423

Good post bro

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Dr_Bill_Walsh
Veteran
Posts: 20,579

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:32 PM

ClassicNiner
Veteran
Posts: 827

Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:44 PM

simplyfloyd
Veteran
Posts: 2,857

turnovers, we must create turnovers.

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:46 PM

SnakePlissken
Veteran
Posts: 15,028

This is all very true, I also know that the Net YPP average reverts at 10-20% for East coast teams traveling OUT WEST. -Somebody brought this up a couple years ago in Sporting news; in the 2003 post-season, the Jets shut out the colts 41-0 in the wildcard round (dominated in net YPP), only to go out to Oakland the following weekend, and get their asses handed to them in a blow-out.

-Same thing went for the Redskins in 2006, AND 2007 when they had to travel out to Seattle in the post-season, got the s**t beat out of them!

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:55 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

Interesting findings.

In 2007, Offensive YPP stayed the same for the Giants going from the regular season to the postseason at about 14 YPP. On Defense, they went from about 14 YPP allowed in the regular season to 17.6 YPP in the postseason. Not a huge jump...they played about the same.

In 2011, the Giants have gone from 13.5 to 15 on offense, modest but nothing to write home about. But on defense, they have jumped from 15.5 to nearly 29! This is unheard of, doubling average performance on defense.

Jan 21, 2012 at 12:58 PM

DFW49erFan
Veteran
Posts: 44

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

I'd be curious to know about the Giants that year too, winning at Tampa, at Dallas, at Green Bay, and then New England in the Super Bowl. They seem like they could be on that kind of run again, but I hope not.

Edit: Didn't quite get that out fast enough

[ Edited by DFW49erFan on Jan 21, 2012 at 1:00 PM ]

Jan 21, 2012 at 1:03 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by SnakePlissken:
This is all very true, I also know that the Net YPP average reverts at 10-20% for East coast teams traveling OUT WEST. -Somebody brought this up a couple years ago in Sporting news; in the 2003 post-season, the Jets shut out the colts 41-0 in the wildcard round (dominated in net YPP), only to go out to Oakland the following weekend, and get their asses handed to them in a blow-out.

-Same thing went for the Redskins in 2006, AND 2007 when they had to travel out to Seattle in the post-season, got the s**t beat out of them!

link?

Jan 21, 2012 at 1:08 PM

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by DFW49erFan:

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

I'd be curious to know about the Giants that year too, winning at Tampa, at Dallas, at Green Bay, and then New England in the Super Bowl. They seem like they could be on that kind of run again, but I hope not.

Edit: Didn't quite get that out fast enough

see above. in 2007 they improved slightly on defense and stayed the same on offense. In 2007 they have improved slightly on offense (very slight) and are literally TWICE AS GOOD on defense. Most of this massive increase on D is due to the obliteration of the Falcons. Just looking at the Packers game, they overperformed by 30% on defense and 20% on offense.

Jan 21, 2012 at 1:50 PM

#10

KowboyKiller
Veteran
Posts: 6,991

You down with YPP

Yeah, you know me.

Jan 21, 2012 at 1:57 PM

#11

MarkD
Veteran
Posts: 2,611

Umm I was told there would be no math???!!!!!

Jan 21, 2012 at 2:09 PM

#12

1251alex
Veteran
Posts: 11,459

Originally posted by ClassicNiner:
Nick, great post. YYP is to a large extent driven by turnovers.

I wonder what the Giants numbers looked like in the 2007 season, when the won the SB as a wild card total underdog.

or when the Colts won it in 2006.

Jan 21, 2012 at 2:14 PM

#13

tohara3
Veteran
Posts: 30,720

Nice find

Jan 21, 2012 at 2:29 PM

#14

AXEGRINDER
Veteran
Posts: 25,679

Too bad the retards in the media can't comprehend this. Oh well.