2012 NFC Divisional Game vs. New Orleans Saints Gameday Thread

Originally posted by Fasteddy:

Originally posted by HessianDud:


that's awesome.

whether or not the blitzing was part of all this, i think this past history between the two guys (who are really similar in many ways) makes this game extra interesting. i can't f**king wait.

So what you are saying is Payton is like this dude:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0191397/

Awesome.

he's going to be like this dude by Saturday night:

Originally posted by daragon:
The whole world and all the computers are predicting that we lose. So a victory by the 49ers in this game will be that much sweeter. Anyone who is going to the game needs to make that stadium louder then it has ever been! Go Niners!!!

This!

Originally posted by HessianDud:

Originally posted by Fasteddy:

Originally posted by HessianDud:


that's awesome.

whether or not the blitzing was part of all this, i think this past history between the two guys (who are really similar in many ways) makes this game extra interesting. i can't f**king wait.

So what you are saying is Payton is like this dude:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0191397/

Awesome.

he's going to be like this dude by Saturday night:

Respect. I love how Keanu is hanging out with the birds.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by daragon:
The whole world and all the computers are predicting that we lose. So a victory by the 49ers in this game will be that much sweeter. Anyone who is going to the game needs to make that stadium louder then it has ever been! Go Niners!!!

This!

I wonder what our season record is per Accuscore.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by daragon:
The whole world and all the computers are predicting that we lose. So a victory by the 49ers in this game will be that much sweeter. Anyone who is going to the game needs to make that stadium louder then it has ever been! Go Niners!!!

This!

I wonder what our season record is per Accuscore.

I've been watching it all year and it has been pretty accurate. The Eagles and Lions games were the only two that predicted us to lose and we won.

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Smith's quarterback rating against the blitz (96.3) ranked third in the NFL this season behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and New England's Tom Brady (110.9). He completed 90 of 152 passes for 1,097 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception against blitzes.Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/10/SPIO1MN3K6.DTL#ixzz1jAeX9bhw

I really am suprised and impressed. I knew he got the ball out, but I didn't think he was effective (that much). 8 tds is nearly half his count total for the year....

Interesting stat for sure.

Devil's Advocate: I wonder if this takes into account the effectiveness of the blitz? In other words, the defense may blitz, but if our Oline picks it up it's a non-factor. In theory, this could tell more about the performance of the Oline than Smith.

a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Smith's quarterback rating against the blitz (96.3) ranked third in the NFL this season behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and New England's Tom Brady (110.9). He completed 90 of 152 passes for 1,097 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception against blitzes.Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/10/SPIO1MN3K6.DTL#ixzz1jAeX9bhw

I really am suprised and impressed. I knew he got the ball out, but I didn't think he was effective (that much). 8 tds is nearly half his count total for the year....

Interesting stat for sure.

Devil's Advocate: I wonder if this takes into account the effectiveness of the blitz? In other words, the defense may blitz, but if our Oline picks it up it's a non-factor. In theory, this could tell more about the performance of the Oline than Smith.

a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

No it's not.

The whole point of measuring how a QB performs when blitzed is to measure how effective he is under pressure.....otherwise, why does it matter if a team blitzs, but doesn't get pressure? It's pretty irrelevant.

If fact, if you really want to be critical. You could make an argument that a QB that has an Oline that picks up the blitz well, may have an advantage as that means that there are less guys in coverage vs the WR/TEs.


The stat I would be interested in seeing is how Smith does when pressured? That is much more telling.

Originally posted by 49erJim:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Sean Payton was a scab during the strike, Payton took hardaughs job for 3 games... Then Sean lost his job to harbaugh when the strike ended.... There's some talk tha harbaugh said Sean was paid in cheeseburgers to play

They Hate each other and I will not forget Sean Payton for his blitzs in that 1st pre-season game, trying to show Alex Smith and the new rookie Head Coach a lesson. SCREW HIM AND HIS TEAM. Anyone who doubts me just watch the reply of that 1st pre-season game. They tried to kill Alex.

Tried? i thought his shoulder was popping out again forsure lmao.. i remember harbaugh being P'offed at the saints for hitting him

Originally posted by HessianDud:

Originally posted by ninertico:
Insider request...

Starts with IDing RayMac's performance against Sea. in the first game. He says Pete Prisco (don't like him, Niner hater), singled out Ray as a "under-the-radar" player in Sat.'s game. Compares to Rogers and Goldson, too. Notes that Joyner mentions how Brees' "willingness to take chances" could give him problems with both those players. But he mentions Ray as the helper of both by causing pressure.

He also mentions Joyner's article citing that we scored at least 20 pts in every hm game and the Saints usually give up that many on the road. Also, they don't do well in the TO battle, too.

Finished with his interest in a historical reference tying the Saints to other teams that set offensive records. Runs counter to the notion that NO would auto benefit from a wide open game.

this is what i'm interested in. can you paraphrase the numbers/precedent/argument that he makes about this?

This is from Joyner's piece about Numeric Goals once started by Tom Landry. He was one of the firsts to use computers to find stat trends to establish those numeric goals. If achieved, would be powerful in determining the outcomes of games to the point of almost assuring victory.

The two goals to achieve victory assuring a very strong chance at an upset over the Saints...

#1--Even high-scoring teams don't fare well in a shootout.
Air Coryell, from 78 -82, had a 32-3 record in games where they allowed fewer than 20 points. However, the Chargers' dropped to 19-26 when the opponent scored 20 or more. When the Chargers scored at least 20 in 35 or the 45 games in which the opponents equaled or surpassed the 20 pt mark, it showed most were shootout-style games. Yet, they failed to achieve a winning record.

Same holds true for the Saints, Joyner said. They are 26-31 in games where Brees starts and the opponents scored 20 or more despite the fact that the Saints scored 20 or more in 46 of the games. Mentions it is not an anomaly either as the Saints are 8-8 in games of that nature in the past two years. Joyner continues that it is not a good omen when noting that NO in six of its eight road games has allowed 20 or more. They were 3-3 with two of the losses against the Rams and Bucs who won six games combined.

Adding insult to injury in these metrics, Joyner notes that we, bad ass Niners (I put that in BTW), scored 20 or more points in every home game this year. We equaled or topped that point level in 14 or the past 16 home games. "The rate at which the Niners have played at home implies that this game could become something closer to a shootout, and that might actually favor San Fran."

#2--The Old Cliche of winning the TO battle
The reason this is so paramount when added with the #1 goal is because the Saints' abysmal record of 7-25 comes when giving up 20 or more points and winning/tying/losing the TO battle. In 32 of those Brees-started games where the Saints give up 20 or more, NO did lose the TO battle. "In the nine games in which the Saints gave up 20 points and tied the turnover war, they had a 6-3 mark. In the 16 games of this nature when New Orleans had a turnover edge, it was 13-3."

Joyner says it illustrates that we have mostly won the TO battle against our opponents thereby giving us the advantage given historical precedence this season. NO was only one of five teams to have fewer than 20 giveaways, but they also are one of only seven who has fewer than 20 takeaways. They are tied at 19th while we are #1! The Saints also dropped 16 interception chances (would have been 19, damn you Lions!) counting for half of the total interceptions.

On top of this add the fact that Alex Smith is #1 in fewest Interceptions and now the Saints can't rely on our TOs to neutralize theirs. Then add this other tid bit where Brees' BDR metric shows he's a real risk taker giving our secondary more opportunities than usual.

All these metrics makes it look like we got this thang!!

Was that OK?

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Smith's quarterback rating against the blitz (96.3) ranked third in the NFL this season behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and New England's Tom Brady (110.9). He completed 90 of 152 passes for 1,097 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception against blitzes.Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/10/SPIO1MN3K6.DTL#ixzz1jAeX9bhw

I really am suprised and impressed. I knew he got the ball out, but I didn't think he was effective (that much). 8 tds is nearly half his count total for the year....

Interesting stat for sure.

Devil's Advocate: I wonder if this takes into account the effectiveness of the blitz? In other words, the defense may blitz, but if our Oline picks it up it's a non-factor. In theory, this could tell more about the performance of the Oline than Smith.

a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

No it's not.

The whole point of measuring how a QB performs when blitzed is to measure how effective he is under pressure.....otherwise, why does it matter if a team blitzs, but doesn't get pressure? It's pretty irrelevant.

If fact, if you really want to be critical. You could make an argument that a QB that has an Oline that picks up the blitz well, may have an advantage as that means that there are less guys in coverage vs the WR/TEs.


The stat I would be interested in seeing is how Smith does when pressured? That is much more telling.

i'm pretty sure Stats.inc defines the term blitz as a defensive strategy in which a linebacker or defensive back vacates his normal responsibilities in order to pressure the quarterback.


so again, a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

Originally posted by ninertico:
This is from Joyner's piece about Numeric Goals once started by Tom Landry. He was one of the firsts to use computers to find stat trends to establish those numeric goals. If achieved, would be powerful in determining the outcomes of games to the point of almost assuring victory.

The two goals to achieve victory assuring a very strong chance at an upset over the Saints...

#1--Even high-scoring teams don't fare well in a shootout.
Air Coryell, from 78 -82, had a 32-3 record in games where they allowed fewer than 20 points. However, the Chargers' dropped to 19-26 when the opponent scored 20 or more. When the Chargers scored at least 20 in 35 or the 45 games in which the opponents equaled or surpassed the 20 pt mark, it showed most were shootout-style games. Yet, they failed to achieve a winning record.

Same holds true for the Saints, Joyner said. They are 26-31 in games where Brees starts and the opponents scored 20 or more despite the fact that the Saints scored 20 or more in 46 of the games. Mentions it is not an anomaly either as the Saints are 8-8 in games of that nature in the past two years. Joyner continues that it is not a good omen when noting that NO in six of its eight road games has allowed 20 or more. They were 3-3 with two of the losses against the Rams and Bucs who won six games combined.

Adding insult to injury in these metrics, Joyner notes that we, bad ass Niners (I put that in BTW), scored 20 or more points in every home game this year. We equaled or topped that point level in 14 or the past 16 home games. "The rate at which the Niners have played at home implies that this game could become something closer to a shootout, and that might actually favor San Fran."

#2--The Old Cliche of winning the TO battle
The reason this is so paramount when added with the #1 goal is because the Saints' abysmal record of 7-25 comes when giving up 20 or more points and winning/tying/losing the TO battle. In 32 of those Brees-started games where the Saints give up 20 or more, NO did lose the TO battle. "In the nine games in which the Saints gave up 20 points and tied the turnover war, they had a 6-3 mark. In the 16 games of this nature when New Orleans had a turnover edge, it was 13-3."

Joyner says it illustrates that we have mostly won the TO battle against our opponents thereby giving us the advantage given historical precedence this season. NO was only one of five teams to have fewer than 20 giveaways, but they also are one of only seven who has fewer than 20 takeaways. They are tied at 19th while we are #1! The Saints also dropped 16 interception chances (would have been 19, damn you Lions!) counting for half of the total interceptions.

On top of this add the fact that Alex Smith is #1 in fewest Interceptions and now the Saints can't rely on our TOs to neutralize theirs. Then add this other tid bit where Brees' BDR metric shows he's a real risk taker giving our secondary more opportunities than usual.

All these metrics makes it look like we got this thang!!

Was that OK?

fantastic!

thanks tico, you're the man!

those are some very very interesting numbers. it makes me go like this:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Smith's quarterback rating against the blitz (96.3) ranked third in the NFL this season behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and New England's Tom Brady (110.9). He completed 90 of 152 passes for 1,097 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception against blitzes.Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/10/SPIO1MN3K6.DTL#ixzz1jAeX9bhw

I really am suprised and impressed. I knew he got the ball out, but I didn't think he was effective (that much). 8 tds is nearly half his count total for the year....

Interesting stat for sure.

Devil's Advocate: I wonder if this takes into account the effectiveness of the blitz? In other words, the defense may blitz, but if our Oline picks it up it's a non-factor. In theory, this could tell more about the performance of the Oline than Smith.

a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

No it's not.

The whole point of measuring how a QB performs when blitzed is to measure how effective he is under pressure.....otherwise, why does it matter if a team blitzs, but doesn't get pressure? It's pretty irrelevant.

If fact, if you really want to be critical. You could make an argument that a QB that has an Oline that picks up the blitz well, may have an advantage as that means that there are less guys in coverage vs the WR/TEs.


The stat I would be interested in seeing is how Smith does when pressured? That is much more telling.

i'm pretty sure Stats.inc defines the term blitz as a defensive strategy in which a linebacker or defensive back vacates his normal responsibilities in order to pressure the quarterback.


so again, a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

This

Originally posted by HessianDud:
fantastic!

thanks tico, you're the man!

those are some very very interesting numbers. it makes me go like this:

Originally posted by JiksJuicy:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by boast:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by valrod33:
Smith's quarterback rating against the blitz (96.3) ranked third in the NFL this season behind Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and New England's Tom Brady (110.9). He completed 90 of 152 passes for 1,097 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception against blitzes.Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/10/SPIO1MN3K6.DTL#ixzz1jAeX9bhw

I really am suprised and impressed. I knew he got the ball out, but I didn't think he was effective (that much). 8 tds is nearly half his count total for the year....

Interesting stat for sure.

Devil's Advocate: I wonder if this takes into account the effectiveness of the blitz? In other words, the defense may blitz, but if our Oline picks it up it's a non-factor. In theory, this could tell more about the performance of the Oline than Smith.

a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

No it's not.

The whole point of measuring how a QB performs when blitzed is to measure how effective he is under pressure.....otherwise, why does it matter if a team blitzs, but doesn't get pressure? It's pretty irrelevant.

If fact, if you really want to be critical. You could make an argument that a QB that has an Oline that picks up the blitz well, may have an advantage as that means that there are less guys in coverage vs the WR/TEs.


The stat I would be interested in seeing is how Smith does when pressured? That is much more telling.

i'm pretty sure Stats.inc defines the term blitz as a defensive strategy in which a linebacker or defensive back vacates his normal responsibilities in order to pressure the quarterback.


so again, a blitz is a blitz. picked up or not.

This

The definition of the word blitz is not up for debate. The impact of the act is. Real pressure, not attempted pressure is what you're really after. Real pressure can be in form of 3, 4 or 6 man rush. I really dont care how my QB performs under the technical definition of the word "blitz". I only care how he performs under defense pressure, which comes in many forms. If you dont, then I guess there is nothing left to argue...


P.S. To the bold of Boast's post.

The Saints might blitz a lot but they don't get many sacks. we have a better passrush w/out blitzing.

so i think the takeaway from all that is that when the Saints blitz (and they will) we should be able to beat it.