FootballOutsiders.com: 49ers have 10th-Ranked Passing attack | Page 2

nickbradley · 2011-11-01T21:50:25-07:00

Shocking, but adjusted for strength of opponent and the situation, the 49ers have the #10 passing offense in the NFL. We have the 17th-ranked rushing attack and the 17th ranked offense overall, probably because we run the ball a lot and we ran the ball poorly in the first few games. On Defense, we're #1 against the rush, #4 against the pass, and #6 in pass-rush. We're tied for #1 in Special Teams with Chicago. What I find the most interesting are drive stats -- I think they tell the whole story. We're 2nd in net starting field position at about 5.5 yards per change of possession -- so every time we trade punts (adjusting for offense-defense play), we pick up 11 yards. Cincy is crushing the NFL at 6.91 yards. So again, like I've been saying, the passing attack is hyper-efficient, the O-line is improving from godawful to mediocre, the pass rush has shot up through the rankings, and special teams remains excellent. These are all a sign of great coaching. Going forward, the two biggest questions are: 1. How much can the 49ers expand the passing game without sacrificing efficiency? In mathematical analysis, you try to find the 'knee in the curve' where you maximize output without losing too much efficiency (efficiency x output). 2. How good is the O-line going to be by the end of the year? * If I had to answer those questions, the answers would be (1) not very much unless Alex Smith and Crabtree can get on the same page and (2) probably a lot better; when I see the 49ers running the ball, I think 'wow. we should be able to run for 200 yards a game if we really wanted to'. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

Nov 2, 2011 at 5:03 AM

#16

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
how the f**k is our running game 17th?

that's just retarded

2.5 YPC in our first 3 games.

Nov 2, 2011 at 5:06 AM

#17

Shorteous
Veteran
Posts: 3,299

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
how the f**k is our running game 17th?

that's just retarded

2.5 YPC in our first 3 games.

And that happened against teams with higher ranked rush defense

Nov 2, 2011 at 5:10 AM

#18

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by BubbaParisMVP:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
how the f**k is our running game 17th?

that's just retarded

When the computer pukes out garbage it's a sure sign that your methodology is crap. Does anyone really think our passing offense exceeds our rushing offense?

Bluntly, would our pass game be what it is in the absence of our rushing game?

This is how you get yourself into housing bubbles and BCS championship games.

I understand. But like I said, our running game was very bad the first three games: 85 carries for 209 yards or 2.46 yards per carry. Furthermore, FO adjusts for the situation. So if you pick up 10 yards on a 3rd and 20 draw play you don't really get any points towards your ranking. If you run on 3rd and 4 and get the first down, you get a ton of points.

Since the Philly game, we have rushed for 701 yards on 124 carries, 5.65 yards per carry.

Nov 2, 2011 at 5:13 AM

#19

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
how the f**k is our running game 17th?

that's just retarded

2.5 YPC in our first 3 games.

<2.5YPC is still bad, and I don't know how many of those yards were 3rd and long garbage yards.

Nov 2, 2011 at 5:15 AM

#20

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I think its all coming together now. The Browns game wasn't very pretty but it gave some new wrinkles that opposing DCs will have to gameplan against. Now we can really start utilizing Davis, Walker, Edwards, and Crabtree.

I'm hoping the 11-15 connection can figure it out, because there are big plays to be had. And those big plays would equate to much more statistically appealing performances. It'll start this week vs. a Redskins team with poor pass defense and mediocre/good rush defense.

We're going to have to make those plays if we want to beat Green Bay, New Orleans, or Philly (again) in the playoffs. Although we beat Philly, if we played that game again we'd probably lose. No way we get that many fumble recoveries.

Nov 2, 2011 at 6:09 AM

#21

49ersalldaway126
Veteran
Posts: 14,549

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
how the f**k is our running game 17th?

that's just retarded

2.5 YPC in our first 3 games.

pretty uch this horrible 3 games and good 3 games wont get us in top average we would be right around avergae which is where we are now

Nov 2, 2011 at 6:16 AM

#22

nickbradley
Member
Posts: 3,755

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
pretty uch this horrible 3 games and good 3 games wont get us in top average we would be right around avergae which is where we are now

Three bad games, four good games. And the crazy thing is that the defenses we've played in the 43 good games have been good against the run with the exception of Philly -- TB and CLE are Top 10 and Det is top 15 despite statements to the contrary.