2011 Schedule Analysis and Predictions

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
San Francisco 49ers 2011 Schedule

1 Sun, Sept. 11 vs. Seattle Seahawks - WIN - We seem to do well in first games for new HC's. This'll be at home, and I can't see us losing this.
2 Sun, Sept. 18 vs. Dallas Cowboys - LOSS - Toss-up. Dallas is a tough opponent, but we always play them well at Candlestick. We have the talent to win, and their secondary is poor (I see a big day for Braylon).
3 Sun, Sept. 25 at Cincinnati Bengals - WIN - Very bad, although very young, rebuilding team. We do our jobs, we walk out with an easy win.
4 Sun, Oct. 2 at Philadelphia Eagles - LOSS - Way too talented for us right now. Barring any injury to Vick, we will lose this game.
5 Sun, Oct. 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LOSS - Freeman is only going to be better this year, as well Blount, Mike Williams, and the young Tampa D.
6 Sun, Oct. 16 at Detroit Lions - LOSS - We have had ownage on Detroit in recent years, but I think their defense will harass us and they will wind up winning a close one at home.
7 Bye
8 Sun, Oct. 30 vs. Cleveland Browns - WIN - Another rebuilding team we face who is installing a new defense. We're at home too and we're a better team.
9 Sun, Nov. 6 at Washington Redskins - WIN - Washington is just a very average team. We are more talented, and should win this game.
10 Sun, Nov. 13 vs. New York Giants - LOSS - Unless we can solve the Giants pass rush, this will probably be a blowout loss.
11 Sun, Nov. 20 vs. Arizona Cardinals - WIN - I still don't think Arizona can stop our run game.
12 Thu, Nov. 24 at Baltimore Ravens - LOSS - As much as I want this to be a win.. I don't think we'll stop Boldin, Evans, Torrey Smith, and Ray Rice in Baltimore.
13 Sun, Dec. 4 vs. St. Louis Rams - WIN - We'll beat the Rams at our house.
14 Sun, Dec. 11 at Arizona Cardinals - WIN - See week 11 comments.
15 Mon, Dec. 19 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - LOSS - It's the 2010 AFC Champs...
16 Sat, Dec. 24 at Seattle Seahawks - LOSS - We might struggle with the Seattle crowd.
17 Sun, Jan. 1 at St. Louis Rams - WIN - We play well in season finales and I think we will steal this one for an upset.

Final Record 8-8.

I don't think we'll be worse than 7-9, based on our schedule, but I don't think we'll be better than 9-7. Here's to seeing whether or not the 49ers meet.. or EXCEED expectations this year.

totally agree..except for the game vs the lions and the final seahawk game...i think we will win both...9-7 baby

Sincerely hope that I am wrong, but I have consistently been too optomistic in my forecasts over the last 8 years.

I'm forecasting a 3-13 record in 2011. Two of the wins will come early. Alex Smith will not physically survive beyond Game 6 (Lions with Ndamakung Suh) due to a catastrophic pass protection breakdown in the OL. Kaepernick and Tolzien will both see considerable PT, once Smith goes down, over the remainder of the season. The defense and/or ST will steal a third win somewhere later in the season. The club will know where it stands with its young QB's by season end, although the forced, accelerated, learning curve will be painful to watch. The offense with either rookie, Kaepernick or Tolzien, at the controls would be fortunate to score more than 10 poiints per game.

Walsh went 2-14 in his first season. Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his first season. I'm not saying that the club will tank the season and go for Luck in the draft. I am saying that the QB position is so thin and the OL so unstable in pass protection, that Harbaugh is going to learn some harsh lessons about how the NFL penalizes teams, who are thin at QB.

The future will get better quickly, but 2011 will be yet another year to try the Faithfuls' patience.

Like I said, I hope that my crystal ball is lame.

Originally posted by jimbagg:
Sincerely hope that I am wrong, but I have consistently been too optomistic in my forecasts over the last 8 years.

I'm forecasting a 3-13 record in 2011. Two of the wins will come early. Alex Smith will not physically survive beyond Game 6 (Lions with Ndamakung Suh) due to a catastrophic pass protection breakdown in the OL. Kaepernick and Tolzien will both see considerable PT, once Smith goes down, over the remainder of the season. The defense and/or ST will steal a third win somewhere later in the season. The club will know where it stands with its young QB's by season end, although the forced, accelerated, learning curve will be painful to watch. The offense with either rookie, Kaepernick or Tolzien, at the controls would be fortunate to score more than 10 poiints per game.

Walsh went 2-14 in his first season. Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his first season. I'm not saying that the club will tank the season and go for Luck in the draft. I am saying that the QB position is so thin and the OL so unstable in pass protection, that Harbaugh is going to learn some harsh lessons about how the NFL penalizes teams, who are thin at QB.

The future will get better quickly, but 2011 will be yet another year to try the Faithfuls' patience.

Like I said, I hope that my crystal ball is lame.

I am with you on hoping that your crystal ball is cracked ........ and I agree if anything happens to Smith we will probably be in very serious trouble.

GO NINER'S ......... now surprize the crap out of us.

1 Sun, Sept. 11 vs. Seattle Seahawks - W- Statement game. Harbaugh implements an excellent game plan. Players go out
2 Sun, Sept. 18 vs. Dallas Cowboys - L - I think this game will be close but ultimately our secondary won't do much and neither will our pass rush.
3 Sun, Sept. 25 at Cincinnati Bengals - W - Finally get a road win on the east coast. Clements gambles and Alecks makes him pay, lulz.
4 Sun, Oct. 2 at Philadelphia Eagles - L - If Vick plays...we'll get smashed.
5 Sun, Oct. 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - L - Freeman will do well against our secondary.
6 Sun, Oct. 16 at Detroit Lions - L - Lions look good and if Stafford is healthy...look for our secondary to get blown up again. Their d-line will torture Alex.
7 Bye
8 Sun, Oct. 30 vs. Cleveland Browns - W - We harass McCoy and our secondary finally has a good game.
9 Sun, Nov. 6 at Washington Redskins - W - Very average team. We're more talented. We SHOULD win.
10 Sun, Nov. 13 vs. New York Giants - L - Pwned us in 2007 and will do it again thanks to their pass rush. Our o-line isn't experienced enough.
11 Sun, Nov. 20 vs. Arizona Cardinals - W - We've consistently beat Arizona with no problem.
12 Thu, Nov. 24 at Baltimore Ravens - L - John schools his brother. That said..I think the 1st half will be good. We'll keep up.
13 Sun, Dec. 4 vs. St. Louis Rams - W - I think we'll beat the Rams @ home.
14 Sun, Dec. 11 at Arizona Cardinals - L - AZ finally gets the best of us.
15 Mon, Dec. 19 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - L - Rothlesberger vs our secondary. Don't watch, lol.
16 Sat, Dec. 24 at Seattle Seahawks - W - Seattle will be a perennial loser this year.
17 Sun, Jan. 1 at St. Louis Rams - W- Playing for playoff contention. When our backs are against the wall...we tend to do well and so does Alex.


8-8 OVERALL

5-1 vs division (done it before)

3-7 outside the division (Browns, Redskins, Bengals).

Toss up games (games that are winnable) - Dallas, Detroit, *Arizona/St Louis/Seattle (assuming we lose ONE division game).

Best case scenario - 11-5 (6-0 vs division, 5-5 outside)

Worst case scenario - well...obviously 0-16 but realistically 6-10 (4-2 vs division, 2-8 outside or some similar combo).


I just can't see us losing against our division more than once. The key this year will be winning OUTSIDE the division. Winning in the division hasn't been our problem. It all comes down to the first 6 games really. If we go into the bye with AT LEAST a 2-4 record or better...we have a shot. 3-3 or better would be ideal. 8-8 seems reasonable to expect.

Originally posted by jimbagg:

Sincerely hope that I am wrong, but I have consistently been too optomistic in my forecasts over the last 8 years.

I'm forecasting a 3-13 record in 2011. Two of the wins will come early. Alex Smith will not physically survive beyond Game 6 (Lions with Ndamakung Suh) due to a catastrophic pass protection breakdown in the OL. Kaepernick and Tolzien will both see considerable PT, once Smith goes down, over the remainder of the season. The defense and/or ST will steal a third win somewhere later in the season. The club will know where it stands with its young QB's by season end, although the forced, accelerated, learning curve will be painful to watch. The offense with either rookie, Kaepernick or Tolzien, at the controls would be fortunate to score more than 10 poiints per game.

Walsh went 2-14 in his first season. Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his first season. I'm not saying that the club will tank the season and go for Luck in the draft. I am saying that the QB position is so thin and the OL so unstable in pass protection, that Harbaugh is going to learn some harsh lessons about how the NFL penalizes teams, who are thin at QB.

The future will get better quickly, but 2011 will be yet another year to try the Faithfuls' patience.

Like I said, I hope that my crystal ball is lame.

Your psychic license has been suspended.

Originally posted by cwilson830:
Your psychic license has been suspended.

i kinda see his point

if i have to bet 1 game where the qb will be injured its against the lions they have maybe the best D line in the nfl and suh likes to destroy the qb if we get past the lions game without an injury i think smith can last all 16 games

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by cwilson830:

Your psychic license has been suspended.

i kinda see his point



if i have to bet 1 game where the qb will be injured its against the lions they have maybe the best D line in the nfl and suh likes to destroy the qb if we get past the lions game without an injury i think smith can last all 16 games

I think we better do a lot of the following when we play Detroit:

1) RUNNING
2) 2-back sets for extra protection
3) ROLL-OUTS to tire out the DL
4) SHOTGUN formations to give the QB more time
5) Quick throws - whether the quick-pass at the LOS to the WR, or the quick slants. We need those.
6) Screens - to offset the pressure and keep the defense honest.

We do this, we can keep Smith healthy, and maybe even win.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I think we better do a lot of the following when we play Detroit:

1) RUNNING
2) 2-back sets for extra protection
3) ROLL-OUTS to tire out the DL
4) SHOTGUN formations to give the QB more time
5) Quick throws - whether the quick-pass at the LOS to the WR, or the quick slants. We need those.
6) Screens - to offset the pressure and keep the defense honest.

We do this, we can keep Smith healthy, and maybe even win.

definitally i havent followed the lions offseason too much all i know is that they upgraed there D line with fairly ( who was a potential #1 pick) but they didnt do anything to upgrade there secondary

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by cwilson830:

Your psychic license has been suspended.

i kinda see his point

if i have to bet 1 game where the qb will be injured its against the lions they have maybe the best D line in the nfl and suh likes to destroy the qb if we get past the lions game without an injury i think smith can last all 16 games

10 bucks says we have more Lions fans here than on the Lions boards.

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

I think we better do a lot of the following when we play Detroit:

1) RUNNING
2) 2-back sets for extra protection
3) ROLL-OUTS to tire out the DL
4) SHOTGUN formations to give the QB more time
5) Quick throws - whether the quick-pass at the LOS to the WR, or the quick slants. We need those.
6) Screens - to offset the pressure and keep the defense honest.

We do this, we can keep Smith healthy, and maybe even win.

definitally i havent followed the lions offseason too much all i know is that they upgraed there D line with fairly ( who was a potential #1 pick) but they didnt do anything to upgrade there secondary

They have a very underrated secondary. Former 2nd-rounder Alphonso Smith, whom they acquired from the Broncos, led the team in interceptions last year. Detroit has a good set of safeties, and at corner they've got Alphonso Smith, Chris Houston, Eric Wright, Aaron Berry and Brandon McDonald.

Trying to predict the first game makes some sense to me, but trying to predict anything after that is insane. Every single year is different. You only have an idea about your team and other teams, after you have seen them play a couple games. We lost close games to the Saints, Eagles and other teams we should have beat, with a horrible coach, with a horrible game plan. Anything is possible this year. Don't think you have a clue, because no one does. If you did, you would make a LOT of money betting the games.

After week one around the NFL. "Wow I can't believe THOSE guys beat THOSE guys!?" Will be the common theme, just like it is every year.

>but I have consistently been too optimistic in my forecasts over the last 8 years.

I still cant go the other direction. At least in my heart.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
San Francisco 49ers 2011 Schedule

1 Sun, Sept. 11 vs. Seattle Seahawks - WIN - We seem to do well in first games for new HC's. This'll be at home, and I can't see us losing this.
2 Sun, Sept. 18 vs. Dallas Cowboys - LOSS - Toss-up. Dallas is a tough opponent, but we always play them well at Candlestick. We have the talent to win, and their secondary is poor (I see a big day for Braylon).
3 Sun, Sept. 25 at Cincinnati Bengals - WIN - Very bad, although very young, rebuilding team. We do our jobs, we walk out with an easy win.
4 Sun, Oct. 2 at Philadelphia Eagles - LOSS - Way too talented for us right now. Barring any injury to Vick, we will lose this game.
5 Sun, Oct. 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LOSS - Freeman is only going to be better this year, as well Blount, Mike Williams, and the young Tampa D.
6 Sun, Oct. 16 at Detroit Lions - LOSS - We have had ownage on Detroit in recent years, but I think their defense will harass us and they will wind up winning a close one at home.
7 Bye
8 Sun, Oct. 30 vs. Cleveland Browns - WIN - Another rebuilding team we face who is installing a new defense. We're at home too and we're a better team.
9 Sun, Nov. 6 at Washington Redskins - WIN - Washington is just a very average team. We are more talented, and should win this game.
10 Sun, Nov. 13 vs. New York Giants - LOSS - Unless we can solve the Giants pass rush, this will probably be a blowout loss.
11 Sun, Nov. 20 vs. Arizona Cardinals - WIN - I still don't think Arizona can stop our run game.
12 Thu, Nov. 24 at Baltimore Ravens - LOSS - As much as I want this to be a win.. I don't think we'll stop Boldin, Evans, Torrey Smith, and Ray Rice in Baltimore.
13 Sun, Dec. 4 vs. St. Louis Rams - WIN - We'll beat the Rams at our house.
14 Sun, Dec. 11 at Arizona Cardinals - WIN - See week 11 comments.
15 Mon, Dec. 19 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - LOSS - It's the 2010 AFC Champs...
16 Sat, Dec. 24 at Seattle Seahawks - LOSS - We might struggle with the Seattle crowd.
17 Sun, Jan. 1 at St. Louis Rams - WIN - We play well in season finales and I think we will steal this one for an upset.

Final Record 8-8.

I don't think we'll be worse than 7-9, based on our schedule, but I don't think we'll be better than 9-7. Here's to seeing whether or not the 49ers meet.. or EXCEED expectations this year.

Don't see much to argue with here Clock... The NFL is so unpredictable that I can see an unexpected loss here and there as well as an upset or two. If the Niners can survive into the bye week, I think they have a decent chance of improving in the second half due to an improved OL. Also, if Davis and/or Rachal struggle early, don't be surprised if Harbaugh and Roman pull the plug on those two and insert Boone and/or Kilgore. This team won't stick with what is not working like the previous administrations did.

One thing about this team that shouldn't be underestimated.... This will be the best prepared team (on game days) that the Niners have had since Mariucci was the coach. They will have good game plans, will try to exploit mismatches, will be able to make significant in-game adjustments and finally, will manage the clock much better than any of the previous 3 head coaches the Niners have had. I think that alone will translate into 2-3 more wins. The team won 6 games last year (and lost several winnable games) with a terrible coaching staff and non-existent game planning. Even with the loss of guys like Franklin and Spikes, I still think the team has added enough weapons on both sides to counteract those losses.

I know the division has gotten better overall (with the possible exception of Seattle) so I think the Niners will have a tougher time with StL and AZ. However, I also see this team winning some of those close games this year. The Niners are very hungry to win. Gore, Willis, and J Smith are chomping at the bit.

I also know there is now a "culture of losing" in SF that must be overcome. That will probably take time. However, if Alex Smith can just play as well as he did in the second half last year (and he did play well), then this team just might surprise. I'm not saying they will. I'm just saying they have an opportunity.

1 win - 0 lose.... Still in the running for 10 win - 6 lose record!!!!!!!!!!

2 wins (1 on the road) - 1 lose (in overtime)..... Still in the running for 10 win - 6 lose record!!!!!!!!!!!! Hope we finish this road trip with lots of eagle feathers for our warbonet!!!!!!