Official Alex Smith Thread

Assuming that we won't be able to trade for a veteran QB before the draft, I think it makes a lot of sense for the 49ers to sign Alex Smith to a 1 year deal and draft a successor. Alex won't be able to sign anywhere else either, so that is the one reason he might choose to go back to hostile SF.

Oops

[ Edited by DaveTheShocker on Jan 28, 2011 at 09:49:04 ]

whatever harbaugh decides to do at the QB position, I will support.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
1. Mike Johnson ain't here no more. That throws a lot of your Mike Johnson numbers out the windy.

The point about Johnson only shows the improvement from Raye to Johnson. One would have to assume Harbaugh will be even better than Johnson or Johnson would still be here.

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2. The 49ers are 19-31 in games started by Alex. I'm not cherry picking any one period of his career. Just giving the full info. 19-31.

You cannot compare those talent-starved early years on that same level as the past year. The trend line from Raye to Johnson is the most informative. It isn't cherry picking to compare the years with a bunch of washed up wide outs to this past season where things were comparatively much better.

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3. He is INJURY PRONE. Injured in '05, most all of '07, ALL of '08, some of '10. Cannot be relied upon to play all 16 as he has done that once in 6 years.

Again, this speaks to the lack of talent on the OL. It does not prove that Alex Smith is injury prone. Remember, his second shoulder injury was related to a surgical procedure that has been quietly questioned as to whether or not he should have been cleared to practice while the metal was still left in place. The proper procedure would have been to allow the bones to fully and completely knit back together, then remove the wire and screws and allow that to heal fully before allowing him to play again. IMO, the doctors took a calculated risk which proved to be a bad risk. Can't blame that one on Alex. (and yes I know a lot about sports medicine...before you call me to question on that. I call on PTs and rehab centers on a regular basis.)

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4. The main argument for Alex is he NEEDS OC CONTINUITY. Well, then why did he REGRESS his 2nd year with Raye? Also, if he needs this continuity, he WILL struggle in '11 to pick up the system. Your basically throwing away '11 so that Alex 'might' get it in '12 .

The league quickly caught up to the Jr High mentality of Raye and took away the simpletons plays he called. That is why he was fired...or do you think firing Raye was a mistake?

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5. He's Captain Checkdown. He does not read defenses. He looks at one guy and if it's not there, he checks it down. This is why Gore is often our leading WR.

Some truth here but also largely the fault of the Raye offense that used only one WR in a pattern much of the time. The second receiver would be double covered and VD is notoriously weak on hot reads and adjustments. The result was commonly that Gore was the only available target. Better offensive play design and sequencing will correct a lot of this...and we saw some of that once Johnson took over.

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6. He's not a natural leader. Players responded a lot more to Troy than Alex. A lot of the locker room does not like Alex and does not play hard for him.

Total speculation on your part. I challenge you to produce evidence/link indicating a "lot of the locker room does not like Alex."

Look, we all recognize we need better QB play but to put it all on Smith is to demonstrate a profound lack of knowledge about the interworkings of the offense in pro football.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
1. Mike Johnson ain't here no more. That throws a lot of your Mike Johnson numbers out the windy.

2. The 49ers are 19-31 in games started by Alex. I'm not cherry picking any one period of his career. Just giving the full info. 19-31.

3. He is INJURY PRONE. Injured in '05, most all of '07, ALL of '08, some of '10. Cannot be relied upon to play all 16 as he has done that once in 6 years.

4. The main argument for Alex is he NEEDS OC CONTINUITY. Well, then why did he REGRESS his 2nd year with Raye? Also, if he needs this continuity, he WILL struggle in '11 to pick up the system. Your basically throwing away '11 so that Alex 'might' get it in '12 .

5. He's Captain Checkdown. He does not read defenses. He looks at one guy and if it's not there, he checks it down. This is why Gore is often our leading WR.

6. He's not a natural leader. Players responded a lot more to Troy than Alex. A lot of the locker room does not like Alex and does not play hard for him.

How about this....

1) the worst coaching Ever for a QB. 15 of the loses you a credit alex where from being the WORST team in the league thats how we got a number one pick.

2) jimmy raye was the worst OC i have ever seen and i ve been watching the niners for 22 years...ALEX was 3 and long ever single time with run up the middle on 1st and 2nd i give props for all the times he did complete those #rd downs..and if you watched the NO game he did just that !!!

@.5( injury prone? HE was the only niner QB to play every snap in a season..Mike martz gets all his QB's killed.. oh and ROOKIE linemen do TOO!

3) IF norv stayed Alex would be a top ten QB...The coach that knew him the best..he will be non functional until he knows the system inside and out... STUPID NINERS lets change his OC everyYEAR!

4) lets have two coaches question you and throw you under the bus and have a FAN base that doesnt understand development and isnt happy unless a JOE or STEVE is under center... If we drafted Steve you guys would have boo'ed him right out the city...IT wassnt until he stoped and learned from watching JOE that he became the steve we loved.... (ala A. RODGERS??)

5) Alex isnt a JOE or STEVE so forget it!!! he is ALex and under the right coaching I am 100% that he could win a superbowl...after all QB's like trent dilfer and ELI mannnig did....

FINALLY PEOPLE LISTEN IN THE NFL ITS ABOUT THE SYSTEM AND THE COACH !!! The coach controls the chess board!
The coach calls the plays and puts his players in position to make plays..
why do you think Matt castle was able to put up those number with the pats?? HE hadnt started since HIGHSCHOOL!~!!!!

Walsh had the WEST COAST when it was brand NEW!!! noone new WTF was going on!!


THE PISS POOR PRODUCT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING ISNT THE QB"S FAULT ITS OWNERSHIP AND COACHING'S FAULT!! ANY ARMY IS ONLY AS GOOD AS ITS GENERALS!!

The only stat folks seem to care about with Smith are his wins and losses. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing him back for another season especially with our huge void at QB. However, I wonder what the locker room would think with Smith back at the helm. I believe he would dampen their enthusiasm for a fresh start.

Look, I can play with Stats too...


Under Johnson as OC...
Alex VS a top 10 D = QB Rate of 77.4 average
Alex VS a Middle of the pack D = QB Rate of 78.3 average
Alex VS a bottom 10 D = QB Rate of 119.0 average

Alex at Home = QB rate of 98.7 average
Alex in Away games = QB rate of 67.5 average

Alex's record in Away games 0-5
Alex's record in Home games 3-2

Home games VS road games by coach:
J-Raye 66% Away games 33% Home games
Johnson 43% Away games 57% Home games

# 16 QB spot in the NFL
Attempts/game 31.7. Average Gain 7. Yards/game 230. Completion % 61.4. 1st % 35. QB Rate 86.3.

Now for Alex
Attempts/game 31.1. Average Gain 6.9. Yards/game 215. Completion % 59.6. 1st % 30.1. QB Rate 82.1.

Attempts/game #19. Average Gain #18-20. Yards/game #22. Completion % #22. 1st % #29. QB Rate #21.

Average it out to be the #20 QB in the NFL; but he's getting better, right? I mean 6 years ago he was #32 in the NFL... Just think, in another 6 years he could be a top 10 QB.

[ Edited by D_Niner on Jan 28, 2011 at 10:05:34 ]

Originally posted by Jersey9er:
Damn, another Smith thread, lmao.

This is my take on the situation as a whole. WE have had horrible upper management and coaching since before Smith came. Actually ever since Mooch was fired and Eddie D was let go. So since then, the organization has been in disarray.

No more Nolan, No more Sing, got rid of Scotty, etc.

My thing was without pointing at just Alex, I want a HC that can put all of our players in the best position to be successful.

A HC that knows how to rotate the line if certain things arent working. That will pull the QB if they arent doing there job completely without worrying about the Qb putting up a fight to get back in. That can make a decision cuz he feels it's best and stick with that.

A HC that when he sees a WR run the wrong route, or give up on a play, or not jump, dive, and reach tremendously for a ball that may be thrown and is catchable he holds them accountable. that if a player gets a little nicked in preseason, (just like in a football movie, it's are you hurt or injured). If your injured u cant play, but if ur just hurt then ur ass is in the game still playing.

A HC that knows how to put the right defensive players in position. That knows that a glaring weakness of ours is the pass rush and deep coverage. that doesnt downplay and sugarcoat the real issues that we have on defense.

And ABove all, a HC that knows how to adjust in a game if the original gameplan aint working.

...........Wait for it....... So with all of this we have HARBAUGH....... And I say if Harbaugh wants Carr in and think he can improve his numbers, then we all should just shut the hell up, and support our HC.

And for those that say the oh this or that cuz we are fans, yes, as fans we will give our opinions till the day we die, as we should. However, we have a better HC in my opinion since Mooch. So lets give him our support and see what he wants to do.

Like he said, the past is the past, and that book is closed. He's moving on, from then to what we have now, so we need to let go of the past and live in the now. And if he brings players that he feels can help us win now, regardless of who it is, then im all for it.

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Look, I can play with Stats too...


Under Johnson as OC...
Alex VS a top 10 D = QB Rate of 77.4 average
Alex VS a Middle of the pack D = QB Rate of 78.3 average
Alex VS a bottom 10 D = QB Rate of 119.0 average

Alex at Home = QB rate of 98.7 average
Alex in Away games = QB rate of 67.5 average

Alex's record in Away games 0-5
Alex's record in Home games 3-2

Home games VS road games by coach:
J-Raye 66% Away games 33% Home games
Johnson 43% Away games 57% Home games

# 16 QB spot in the NFL
Attempts/game 31.7. Average Gain 7. Yards/game 230. Completion % 61.4. 1st % 35. QB Rate 86.3.

Now for Alex
Attempts/game 31.1. Average Gain 6.9. Yards/game 215. Completion % 59.6. 1st % 30.1. QB Rate 82.1.

Attempts/game #19. Average Gain #18-20. Yards/game #22. Completion % #22. 1st % #29. QB Rate #21.

These are all good statistics. Here are a few more:

1. Playoff wins since 2005 = 0
2. Playoff appearances since 2005 = 0
3. Plus .500 seasons since 2005 = 0
4. Years Alex Smith ranked in top half of league in TD passes = 0
5. Years Alex Smith ranked in top half of league in YPG = 0
6. Money paid to Alex Smith since 2005 = approx. $32.5 million

That's a lot of zeros on both sides of the equation. Alex Smith MAY turn out to be a decent QB, it just won't be with the 49ers. He will be learning a new system this year, which means he will be paralyzed the entire season and that's only IF the CBA gets worked out soon so that Alex can learn and practice the system. I have never heard of a QB flipping the switch in Year 8, which is what Alex will have to do to warrant the 49ers keeping him around.

Every year some knucklehead has to post Alex Smith's misleading mediocre stats that hold all sorts of inaccuracies compared to Alex's (actual) on-field ineptitude during live games.

what about his W-L numbers, what do those say?

[ Edited by hb123 on Jan 28, 2011 at 10:11:37 ]

Originally posted by dj43:
All this talk about who should play QB next year and the hope JH can coach them up to a competent level overlooks the fact that if Harbaugh and his staff cannot turn the 49er receivers from a bunch of very undisciplined route runners who have never been competent at reading defenses and making the correct adjustments, it won't matter who the QB is, the offense will not get better.

Much of the discussion about the offense is centered only on the guy with the ball in his hands. It ignores or overlooks the fact that a WCO based on timing and precision DEMANDS receivers that are FAR MORE DISCIPLINED than anything ANY of them have shown in the past few years.

Lots of ppl are all about Vernon Davis because he has gone to a Pro Bowl. All that praise is nice but he gets those props on the basis on his blocking and the fact he only runs one route well and that is a seam route and that depends on avoiding a safety. Davis has shown NOTHING to indicate he will be an asset to WCO based on his lack of ability to read and adjust or to run the precise timing routes that are vital to WCO.

Same thing goes for Crabtree and Morgan. They too will have a long learning curve if the offense is to be effective.

Before anyone goes off on "you are just making excuses for Alex Smith," I suggest they do their homework on the play of the receivers. They suffered from poor position coaching and poor scheme just as much as Smith. The two are interactive. The QB can throw on timing if the receivers are were they are supposed to be at the time they are supposed to be there. Harbaugh will have to work from both ends of this deal at the same time. It won't matter much who is at QB unless the receivers learn how to play far better than they have the past two years.

...and then there is the question of the OL making the correct blocks to provide passing lanes on time...which they have NEVER DONE AT ANY TIME IN THE PAST TWO YEARS....

Another good point, also shows what hard work has done for VD. Hes a beast and improving because he works and puts the time in to get better. I wish std rub off on Crabtree and he would show up this off season. All of our receivers although I dont wanna bash Morgan cuz hes always there trying to improve like Davis.

Why Alex should stay:

1. WE HAVE NO PLAN B unless Harbaugh thinks he has something decent in Troy Smith.
2. He can start here under a better knowledgeable and offensive favorable head coach.
3. Great opportunity to learn from that coach.
4. He will NOT start anywhere else on the sole fact that he will most likely be required to "earn" the spot and to this date, he repeatedly loses competitions to career backups.
5. Numbers are as good as most QB's in the league.
6. He WILL be boo'd on other teams if he starts and does not play well no different than our feelings about picking up what we assumed was a failure in Carr.

There are more but I'm working.

Originally posted by hb123:
what about his W-L numbers, what do those say?

They say that there are 22 starters on a football team plus special teamers, and they haven't been very good.

Why do you ask?

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Look, I can play with Stats too...


Under Johnson as OC...
Alex VS a top 10 D = QB Rate of 77.4 average
Alex VS a Middle of the pack D = QB Rate of 78.3 average
Alex VS a bottom 10 D = QB Rate of 119.0 average

Alex at Home = QB rate of 98.7 average
Alex in Away games = QB rate of 67.5 average

Alex's record in Away games 0-5
Alex's record in Home games 3-2

Home games VS road games by coach:
J-Raye 66% Away games 33% Home games
Johnson 43% Away games 57% Home games

# 16 QB spot in the NFL
Attempts/game 31.7. Average Gain 7. Yards/game 230. Completion % 61.4. 1st % 35. QB Rate 86.3.

Now for Alex
Attempts/game 31.1. Average Gain 6.9. Yards/game 215. Completion % 59.6. 1st % 30.1. QB Rate 82.1.

Attempts/game #19. Average Gain #18-20. Yards/game #22. Completion % #22. 1st % #29. QB Rate #21.

Average it out to be the #20 QB in the NFL; but he's getting better, right? I mean 6 years ago he was #32 in the NFL... Just think, in another 6 years he could be a top 10 QB.

somethings are just a little high for your head to reach but nice effort