Official Alex Smith Thread

Thank you NTeply49 for your effort. There are many (too?) Smith threads but you did a great deal of analysis and expressed it coherently. If Harbaugh wants Smith and Smith agrees to a contract I would be fine with it.

Yes the numbers are decent and he has a lot of potential but to answer your question. Why the fans say no. Alex Smith represents a period in the 49ers history of disfunctional coaching and ownership despite the facts of his avg numbers with the poor coaching and teams. The fans, 49er orginization and Smith need a fresh start at the end of the day for everyone to be satisfied.
If we where to draft Smith today I think he would be a great QB under Harbaugh and on this team, but there is to much poor history to take another shot. Fans will boo and Smith has had enough he is no longer a confident QB in San Fran and confidence is a main ingredient in a QB's success.

Alex is a Average QB Harbaugh could make him Good
I would rather Harbaugh find a Good QB he can make Great

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Thank you NTeply49 for your effort. There are many (too?) Smith threads but you did a great deal of analysis and expressed it coherently. If Harbaugh wants Smith and Smith agrees to a contract I would be fine with it.

Wooot wooot success somewhere

alex smith threa #5,943,995....

His red zone numbers are ridiculous. I have always been a supporter. but it seems to me you guys are all missing the most important thing. when the O line plays great, so does alex. you guys are mentioning the elite qb's and they have all had great o lines for most of their career.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

3. He is INJURY PRONE. Injured in '05, most all of '07, ALL of '08, some of '10. Cannot be relied upon to play all 16 as he has done that once in 6 years.

it doesnt mean anything but did you know that Alex Smith is the only 9ers QB to take every single snap in a season EVER

Originally posted by NTeply49:
Why should you support Alex Smith as your starting QB if Harbaugh selects him!

If you think like me, then you believe our passing offense will be more productive, our QBs will throw the ball better, and our offense overall will be better and put up way better numbers(130% more productive) with Harbaugh at the helm than it was with Johnson, and WAY better than Raye.

If you think like me, then you believe a QB needs an entire off season learning a playbook to perform at maximum capacity and an offense should perform better with a full off season practicing the plays they will actually be running versus installing a new offense 3 games into the year. There is a learning curve.

I believe Alex Smith will be back and he will play well. I also dont think he played as bad as the media made him look. Anyways here are some numbers that support why I think Smith deserves one last shot.

Alex Smith finished with a 82.4 QB rating in 2010. Not horrible by any means. Good for 22nd in the league. For this post I broke Smiths season down into 3 parts. The first 3 games with Raye. The first 4 games with Johnson as OC while the team was learning new plays. And the last 4 games he played in.

The 1st 3 games with Jimmy Raye calling the plays the offense was predictable and easily one of the worst many of us have ever seen. Smiths numbers were horrible.

1st 3 games with Raye
72/119 60% 732 Yards 2 TDs 5 INTs 66.2 QB Rating

The following 4 games before Smith was benched in favor of Troy, Smith started to put up decent numbers as the team started learning the new offense before Singletary started to crumble under pressure and hit the panic button to start to Troy Smith era. I also think Smith got hurt in the Carolina game but I dont recall exactly. His numbers were decent.

1st 4 games with Johnson as OC
71/123 57% 822 yards 7 TDs 4 INTs 83.45 QB Rating

Now for the last 4 games of the season, well lets just say if all you could do was look at the QB rating there wouldnt be any arguments on this subject.

Last 4 games with Johnson as OC
61/100 61% 816 yards 5 TDs 1 INTs 99.41 QB Rating

This was the year Alex Smith started to blossom this year after we got rid of Jimmy Raye. If you disclude the games with Raye as coordinator his stats would have looked like this.

Season with Johnson as OC
132/223 59% 1638 yards 12 TDs 5 INTs 90.6 QB rating

A 90.6 QB rating would have been good for 6th in NFL right above Joe Flacco at 90.0. Take those last 8 games of stats and double them to see what his stats could have looked like with a full season of Mike Johnson calling the plays.

What Smiths stats could have looked like with a full season with Johnson as OC
264/446 59% 3276 yards 24 TDs 10 INTs 90.6 Rating

Not only that, in the redzone, the smallest part of the field to work with, he had the best QB rating in the NFL at 124.4. The only other 2 that were close were Peyton Manning at 105.9 and Drew Brees at 92.3. To me, this shows me he is capable run a west coast system and make good decisions because a west coast system emphasizes short quick passes and run after the catch. If Crabtree and Ginn don't drop the ball his numbers would have been even better.

Ive been an avid supporter of Smith, and I've taken the time to break down these stats and calculate Qb ratings using http://brucey.net/nflab/statistics/qb_rating.html to try and show you why you should too.

Do you still want Smith gone after seeing these numbers? How could you give up now after hes finally starting to turn the corner? Weve waited this long, are we really going to throw in the towel and let another team pick him up and reap the benefits of 6 years of our suffering? How dissapointed would you be if we released him and he won a Super Bowl or even just made the Pro Bowl? Whats the harm in resigning him and giving him an opportunity to compete for the job?

A lot of fans need to open their eyes, eliminate emotion, and look at this situation more rationally.

In light of these numbers, would you support him if he stays?

(Dear Mods - I decided to post this as its own topic since I put so much time into it but I understand there are enough Alex Smith threads out there. However I do not think there has been one as analytical of the numbers as mine, and people need to see these numbers before blindly hating him and running him out of town. If this was an inappropriate topic please delete and I'm sorry in advance. Thank you)

1) selective stats don't tell the whole picture. You're looking at only what you want to see.

2) Alex has never been able to learn and successfully execute an entire playbook in 1 off season. Hell in his second season under Raye he still looked like crap and called incorrect protection package or was not on the same page as his receivers.

3) Alex does not get the ball out fast enough while leading targets (throwing a receiver open). This is critical in a west coast timing offence. Alex typically waits until the receiver is open before he'll let that thing fly.

4) Alex still stairs down receivers and has poor accuracy. I'm not talking about getting it to an area where the receiver can make the catch, I'm talking about placing it where the receiver can make a play after the catch.

5) And this is one of the most important, the Fans don't want to see Alex start as our QB again. Since we are the Niners customers, they have to be concerned with putting our buts in their seats if they want to make $$$. With all the times I heard fans calling for Alex to be removed from the game, I doubt Jed and Trent would take the chance of pushing away fans by bringing him back.

Originally posted by gold49er2183:
His red zone numbers are ridiculous. I have always been a supporter. but it seems to me you guys are all missing the most important thing. when the O line plays great, so does alex. you guys are mentioning the elite qb's and they have all had great o lines for most of their career.

No O-line could make Alex look elite. Ever. Not at the NFL level. Sorry brah, nice try.

Originally posted by WestCoast:
alex smith threa #5,943,995....

And we've enjoyed them all!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by WestCoast:
alex smith threa #5,943,995....

And we've enjoyed them all!

Can we let the fat lady sing now ?

I'm really tired of seeing the Alex Smith thread and i pray they fix the CBA soon so he will be able to finally be able to sign with another team. Look is he a bust in the Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith mold? No. Because he is not a disaster with the 49ers people want to hold out hope. But he is never going to be the QB people want him to be. I think Alex will have a career like Joey Harrington.

While Alex Smith has some ability, I have stated this before, so I will not list the Pros.
Alex Smith is obviously not perfect, we have all seen him play, I don't think anyone even his biggest fans can honestly say that in the fourth quarter of a close game you are supremely confident in alex's ability. Most of us either hold our breath or more cynically await his game losing mistake, weather it is his patented sack, fumble, his untimely interception, or of course his ever famous three and out check-down passing attack.

So let's just focus on what Alex does wrong and how it is not suitable to our situation.
Alex SMith does not do the following well enough:

Post Snap read of defense, he often seem confused.

Poor post snap reads cause him to hold the ball to long.

Slow release.

Poor/ineffective play action passing, and considering how often we ran WOW how you not sell that?

Aims the ball, does not "throw his receivers open"

Poor touch on short passes

Poor timing/touch on screen passes

Does not drop back from under center smoothly.

That is the short list, as I said Alex does a lot of things well, such as mid range passing, and shotgun passing, also his scrambling is under rated.

The cornerstone of the Bill Walsh Offense (WCO) is the timing of the "three step drop" This alone is enough to remove Alex from consideration.

The Three Step Drop, requires the QB and Wr's to have perfect timing. The QB must make and accurate pre and post snap read of the defense, while taking three steps back from under center (Alex's weakest ability) it is amazing how much happens in those three steps.

Breakdown of typical 3-step play

Step one check WR on quick slant he may need the ball NOW so plant and quickly release the ball, not he's covered.
Step two Post receiver might be coming open NOW, plant and release, no, he's covered, that means..
Plant on the third step, check the safety and and throw to a spot on the field for the deep receiver, no he is not covered, look to the fullback on a wheel route, throw a touch pass so he can catch the ball on the run.

Alex fails in that situation, because almost all the steps necessary to that 3-step drop play work against his strengths and towards his weakens.

Alex needs to play in a 5-7 step drop passing attack that utilizes the spread formation and shotgun passing. An offense that puts the ball deep and midrange more often than not, Alex would make a great QB in Oakland, in the 1970's, luckily for Alex, Al Davis still runs this offense!

My problem with Alex has been what I perceive as being slow to learn or possibly gain trust in a new offense. Sam Bradford, looked good this year, and he had to learn quickly, Matt Castle the same, and Sean "pie chucker" Hill has bounced around the league and had to learn multiple offenses quickly.

I don't think ALex has ever fully mastered any of the offenses he has been taught, he did come close to learning Jimmy Raye's High school play book, from 1975! The Bill Walsh system is to much to ask of him.

If Alex stays it is because Jim Harbaugh know WAAAY more about QB's than I do, but I truly feel if Alex winds up in the right offense, he will be a better than average pro, but not a superstar.

Originally posted by Jcool:
I'm really tired of seeing the Alex Smith thread and i pray they fix the CBA soon so he will be able to finally be able to sign with another team. Look is he a bust in the Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith mold? No. Because he is not a disaster with the 49ers people want to hold out hope. But he is never going to be the QB people want him to be. I think Alex will have a career like Joey Harrington.

Alex has just enough skill and talent to entice coaches to keep him around, he is the classic coach killer!

Alex has skills and in the right offense he will be average to slightly better than average, no superstar here.

In the BWO (Bill Walsh Offense) he will be a train wreck!