Reading the Tea Leaves on Niners' Activity in Free Agency | Page 7

MadDog49er · 2010-03-13T12:24:49-08:00

The Niners have been fairly low key in free agency thus far in March, with the key activity being the addition of David Carr, slated to play backup QB. However, things are rumbling out there which may play a significant role in the upcoming draft. First, the team will be bringing Chester Pitts in for a visit this next week, which may indicate the team is not committed to David Baas. If the team had long-term interest in Baas, it would not make sense to bring in Pitts, who is a left guard. It may also signal either a lack of interest in Mike Iupati in the two first-round draft slots, or an acknowledgment that they already have players targeted in the 13th and 17th slots. The rumors of interest in Pac Man Jones, and the possibility that Singletary visits his upcoming workout, may also send out signals that the Niners would like to free up their second/third round picks from the CB/PR position (I don't see a WR being selected to return punts unless they are extraordinary...the WR position is already stocked this offseason). This CB/PR pick would almost be a draft lock if the team does not address this position in free agency. At the same time, it may also suggest that the team might be willing to run the draft card up to the table in the third round if a player with off-field problems, like Perrish Cox, is on the board at number 79. Ted backer Akin Ayodele will also be visiting the Niners on Monday. This signals that the team sees enough of a slide in Takeo Spikes that Ayodele will compete with him in training camp for that starting role. It also help clarify Scott McKillop's role on this team for the next 5 years: Backup and special teams ace. There is no doubt the team did not have confidence in Hill's ability to get the ball downfield, and signing Carr tips the idea that the Niners intend to launch the ball further down the field in 2010. This would make sense, as the highly competitive teams of the NFL are drifting toward a big play mentality on offense, rather than a ball-control/smash the ball down the field philosophy. One major area of concern last season was Michael Lewis' health after a number of concussions. The Niners have been extraordinarily quiet in regards to this position this offseason, which may mean they are ready to plug Reggie Smith into the starting lineup at some point this season. The team does not seem committed to Mark Roman in 2010. Of course, the team might be sending out smokescreens all over the place regarding interest in these players and upcoming visits. Each fan will have to analyze and dissect each move themselves. Final note: In that the Niners have not re-signed Barry Sims, and are letting him roam the country speaking to teams, sends out the strongest signal that the team will use a first round draftee at the OT position. This player will have to be versatile enough to play both RT and LT, in case Staley goes down. Sims played that duel role last year. This should be a very interesting week. I see the team cutting Shaun Hill by mid-week (there will not be any trade value) and the possible loss of Barry Sims and Mark Roman by the end of the week. It seems like the wheels are in motion and we will see a different roster in a handful of days.

Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Dominate:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Dominate:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by jimbagg:
Originally posted by dj43:
I see this FA actions so far as being appropriate, in that they are all short-term, stop-gap solutions, with the possible exception of David Carr.

What I see are moves to strengthen the second tier/special team strength. Spikes IS a liability in pass coverage but quite good against the run game. His sack numbers were helped by blitz packages in which Willis allowed him to run free. In short, he is past his prime and the team needs better depth.

McKillop is not being seen as more than a SP guy, and that is fine. All good teams need guys like that. He apparently has not shown enough to satisfy the coaches that he is the replacement for Spikes. Wilhelm was a short-term addition to buy time for McKillop to develop. The fact they are looking at Ayodele tells me they see McK as "only" as ST player. As I said, that is good enough, but not enough to solve the need for a better backup/future replacement for Spikes.

The OL moves all indicate something I have been saying for three years - David Baas is not the answer. By bringing in Pitts, IF they sign him, it allows them more flexibility in BPA in the first three picks. The team MUST improve the LG spot if they are to be successful. Signing Pitts would at least buy them another 2-3 years of serviceable play during which time they can find the other pieces to allow the offense to develop the versatility needed to succeed in this league. The tender to Baas buys a year to solve that problem - a shrewd move - it doesn't cost a lot and buys time even if it doesn't solve the long-term need, it frees a spot if a true value pops up at BPA time in the draft.

OT is the big question mark. Sims, though a surprisingly good replacement at LT last season, is NOT the answer. The guy had 3/4 of a season as a decent, not great, play. The rest of his career has been rather gloomy. It would not be wise to stake the future of the offense on his ability to either be the starting RT, OR the main swing OT. I would like to be wrong and he re-signs and plays well, but history tells me otherwise. I am totally convinced they will spend one of the first two picks on OT. The only question is; who will it be? All that has been well-discussed in the Draft Room so I won't repeat it all here. The most intriguing part of the draft will be how OL choices go - so much talent and so many teams with similar needs.

That leaves me with the impression the main focus in FA will continue be to solve backup/ST needs thereby allowing them to go BPA for OT, KR/PR and safety/CB. I think the moves so far, IF Pitts signs, will allow more latitude to select value rather than just need. Pitts is the key, IMO. If he signs, then they can look at either Iupati, or one of the other top tier OTs that will be available at #13/17. If Pitts doesn't sign, then I expect Iupati to get serious consideration - Baas' limitations hurt the offense too much to overlook.

So FA and the draft are inextricably linked and though FA will not have the overall impact that the draft will have, it will have a substantial influence of the choices at #17 and the second and third rounds.

Finally, the Carr signing was very good. He is a good player who will, at the very least, give time for Davis to develop. I would also not be surprised to see him beat out Smith. His college resume is the prototype for what the team seems to want in a QB right now.

So far, so good. Still question marks to be answered in FA.

Excellent, well-articulated point-of-view, as always from you, dj.

From your summary, I surmise that you see a short-term need for 3 OL, as follows:

Starting RT - probably via a high draft pick.

Swing OT - probably via FA, unless the club sees Snyder filling this role. Unlikely that the club would want to back-up a rookie with another rookie from the draft. Unlikely that Sims will return, given the club's ambivalence so far. The FA closet looks very bare, in terms of finding such a veteran player. Remember that last year, the "swing" OT actually started 9 games. While much of the talk has been about drafting the starting RT (and appropriately so), the "swing" OT is a key position to fill through FA, unless Snyder is targeted to be that guy.

Starting LG - if not Baas, could this be Snyder, Wragge, or Wallace? Apparently not, given the club's interest in Pitts. Unlikely that that the club would want to start 2 rookies on the OL (RT and LG) at the same time. Seems like there is still some sentiment to let Baas start in a "show-me" contract year, when he is highly motivated for a big payday, from the Niners or another team, unless a "better" FA OG (Pitts?), can be signed. If no better FA OG can be signed, does the club draft an OG to sit for 1 year behind Baas, with the expectation of starting that player in 2011? Can the club admit that Baas was a swing and miss as Pick #33 and that Wallace is a bust?

Am I reading the tea leaves correctly?
Thank you.

I think we see it pretty much the same.

As to your last question, "yes" I think the club is admitting those two picks are not the long-term solution. However, the decision they made with Baas is a sound one - give him clear notice he needs to prove himself next season or look for a home in some other city. I hope he does well but his lack of agility is not something that a healthy training camp will cure. Even before his torn plantar fascia, he did not have good footwork. If the 49ers are going to have a run game that can go outside as well as up-the-gut, they will need more agile guards than Baas to do it. Now if he gets into the gym and loses 15 pounds or so, he might be more agile but I doubt it.

As to Wallace, I don't think the club would be entertaining Pitts if they thought Wallace the answer.

I stongly disagree about Baas. Most of Gores big runs came behind a pulling David Baas. One run against AZ he road a pulling Baas`s back into the endzone which was impressive being down on the goaline.

Watch the tape #64 coming at you and pulling like a mad man. Just in this small sample Baas is directly responsible for 4 tds at least.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=139117

There is a big difference between the agility and footwork needed to execute a simple pull-and-lead versus what is required if the DL gets some penetration, or the agility demanded to deal with trap blocking and middle blitz packages.

I too have seen Baas work effectively on pulls where no one obstructs his path to get to the opposite tackle. However, I have also seen him on similar runs where he would trip or run into a teammate because lacked the agility to alter his path enough to avoid the teammate and stay in front of Gore.

It is Baas' work in tight quarters that exposes his lack of agility more than on pulls. When he is asked to make a quick trap, he simply does not have the ability to do it. Similarly, on center blitzes, opponent frequently take advantage of him by delaying a blitzer slightly until Baas commits to help the center or LT, and then blow through where he should have been. Often he will see the blitzer but his reaction is too slow to control it. THAT is where I see Baas' greatest failing.

Overall, IMO, Baas is a "somewhat below average" to "average guard" in this league. He isn't the level of player that will allow for a varied and effective offense.

NOTE: Sorry for turning this into a Baas discussion. We don't need another one of those. The fact the 49ers are even entertaining Chester Pitts, LG, is ample indication to most observers that the team is not satisfied with Baas' play. Well, that, along with the fact they gave him a low tender instead of seeking to sign him long term. To me, all of that validates my opinion of him.

IDK what kind of agility you expect from a LG but Baas is a very athletic G. If he is bumping into his own guy its because they are not holding their blocks. They are getting pushed back into Baas when he is pulling. That isnt the fault of Baas. Infact I`d proclaim that Baas is infact our best run blocling lineman at the moment. I will agree that his pass protection needs work, but that is from not knowing the system and blocking assingments completely. Our whole line also suffered that same fate at times during the year. The good news is that they can be taught that aspect of the game with a little continuity across the line.
I have watched OL play very carefully. I have even posted play-by-play critiques here of each player in several games during the past season. What I wrote about Baas is based on that level of observation. If you see his play differently, then I question how closely you have observed Baas and the OL. In that case, we have nothing to discuss.

You arent the only one who watches the line play. I record every game on my DVR and rewatch them frequently. But what you see may not be what I see. Just because you have made a few post about our line play doesnt make you right. I will say it again, Baas is our best run blocker and the tape shows that!