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dtcomposer
- Veteran
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- Posts: 1,417
To BillBird
This is such an old argument. Just because you say that you want Alex to do well doesn't mean anything.
For an example: The Seattle Game where Smith had perhaps his best game. Go back and look at the comments. The "ACP" or whatever people are calling the haters these days, for the most part, harped on the last throw, or said "he's only had one 300 yd game now" etc.
You see that since the ACP's (and the Alexcusionists or whatever they are called) are both emotionally invested in Alex's Success or failure for personal/ pride/ validation reasons, they interpret things with a bias. That is the problem. So what some on here are saying is that it doesn't matter what Smith does well (again as evidenced by the Seattle game last year) The ACP's will focus on any negatives to make themselves feel like their view is correct. While on the other hand the real hard core Alexcusionists will do the same thing by over-looking his faults. IT is so funny when somebody from one faction calls out the other - like you just did - for doing something that they themselves are promulgating in posts all the time.
[ Edited by dtcomposer on Aug 19, 2010 at 13:37:53 ]
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D_Niner
- Veteran
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- Posts: 8,508
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
LOL Football Outsiders analyst says about Alex Smith:
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
I had that suspicion about his stats last year, which were marginal to begin with.
They also said last year that the Rams were gonna win the west
You are confusing a prediction vs a historical analysis of past events? Those are two extremely different things, you understand that right? If predicting was easy, then Vegas would be bankrupt. Historical analysis is what these guys do well. Mustering up an 81 passer rating against bad defenses is like falling off a log.
What historical analysis did they use to make this statement
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
do I really have to explain this to you? Or are you just trying to be cute....
Guys,
I'd have to say that the Football outsiders are wrong on this one. Here's the basic overview of the numbers that should be a sanity check for their data.
Here's the 09 teams we played and Alex's QB rating against them...
(I rate teams D off of Points per game just to get us into the ballpark range)
GB Packers........ #7 D - AS QB rate 88.8
Indy Colts.......... #8 D - AS QB rate 74.7
AZ Cards........... #14 D - AS QB rate 59.7
Philly Eagles....... #19 D - AS QB rate 42.3
Chi-town Bears... #21 D - AS QB rate 63.3
Jacksonville Jags. #24 D - AS QB rate 96.8
Seattle Seacocks. #25 D - AS QB rate 95.6
Tenn Titans........ #28 D - AS QB rate 69.3
STL Rams.......... #31 D - AS QB rate 97.6
Det Lions........... #32 D AS QB rate 97.5
So as you see, Alex did ok against the top 1/3 of the NFL, piss poor against the Middle of the pack and really good against the Bottom 1/3.
Alex played 2 teams in the top 1/3, 3 teams in the Middle 1/3, and 5 teams in the bottom 1/3.
So to say that he racked up his stats against the bottom of the barrel, is not so accurate when 50% of his starts were against these teams and he also looked average (not poor) against the top 1/3 group...
DNiner to the rescue!
ok, now I see that the analysis above by Dniner was based on their defensive rankings. Nice work!
What this tells me is that Smith was only able to register an 80%+ passer rating against ONE team in the NFL that had a defense rated higher than the 24th in the league. That is the very definition of piss-poor, to use Dniner's terminology. This to me reaffirms the analysis done on Smith in that article.
Your analysis affirms to me that you have very little clue what your talking about, QB rating isn't on a percentage basis, how can a QB get 158.3%? 80% of 158.3 is 126.64, which if he did attain over the year would break the record for a single season QB rating(Peyton Manning 121.1) by 5 points.
Props to Dniner for trying to bring everyone back into reality, unfortunately it will still get lost on the haters. You even discounted the texans game so haters couldnt say that doesn't count (118.6 btw).
Bottom line is Alex Smith looked average last year, he had good games and bad games. Dniner showed that, and showed that football outsiders may have misspoke on this topic, and in reality may just be a bunch of nerds and fantasy ballers in a backroom who don't know anything more than anyone else.
chances are that I've taken tons more bacherlors and masters level stats classes than you. I understand that passer rating is not a '%', but most people call it that. that doesn't debunk what I said in any way.
First off, I said little clue first of all not no clue
It doesn't debunk or re-affirm your view. I for one have never heard a QB rating shown as a %, who knows maybe its just me.
Also I'm more than happy to compare college transcripts, masters transcript and even a CPA score against a percentile compare to any qualification you have against a percentile. Taking statistics only proves that with NFL type stats, you can make the data look what you want it to look like, their is too many variables and too short of a season to get a representative sample. So we rely on a completely flawed stat like QB rating to tell us whether a QB played well or not.
Anyways the data shows that alex sucks against mid level teams, honestly I would rank the bears even lower than Dniner did, but he took PPG not passing defense or anything like that. Which would show Alex had sh*tty games against sh*tty teams too.
Both you do have valid points. Yes there is not a large enough sample size and each category is not properly weighted. The "points against" column was only used to provide a sanity check against the data that was provided. If we use pass defense rating then the numbers are probably closer to reality but they come out close enough to the same.
As for skewing or screwing with the stats, Mr. High is right, we can get them to say whatever we want. For example, if I calculate what the average QB rate is for each and every team to find that Ds average that they give up then compare that average to Alex I would get the following...
GB average 68.8 - Alex against GB
88.8
AZ average
76.4 - Alex against AZ 59.7
Philly average
77.6 - Alex against Philly 42.3
Indy average
80.6 - Alex against Indy 74.7
Titans average
91.2 - Alex against the Titans 69.3
Bears average
92.3 - Alex against da Bears 63.3
SheHawlks average 93.4 - Alex against the SheHawlks
95.6
Jags average 96.0 - Alex against the Jags
96.8
Rams average 96.4 - Alex against the Rams
97.6
Lions average
107 - Alex against the Lions 97.5
This looks like Alex is well below average as compared to his peers. I could use this to say that the Stats folks were right on in their assessment because of Alex's low numbers; but, I don't think this is accurate because the flow of the game dictates what plays are called and different players are injured every week which both of these facts change this stat (Statistically speaking, team 1 is not the same in week 1 as they are in week 12).
This is kinda what started the whole thing off. All I wanted to do was a simple sanity check and see if what the stat guys said holds water and the only way I can get it to appear so is by playing with the numbers.
[ Edited by D_Niner on Aug 19, 2010 at 13:40:49 ]
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Shemp
- Hall of Fame
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- Posts: 29,755
Originally posted by billbird2111:
Originally posted by Aacadena:
If he does well the "non- supporters" will claim
a) it's preseason
b) the Vikings defense was vanilla.
C) your momma could play well in under the same circumstance.
D) Jimmy raye fell asleep.
E) he played against 2nd stringers.( to be honest carr and Davis have been playing against guys who will bagging groceries soon.)
f) he still not as good as davis or care cuz they look so great. (*cough* glen coffee)
e) yeah he looked good but it's still his fault for the oil
spill.
WRONG!
If Smith "does well" as you claim, we will be unable to type because we're too busy wiring our jaws back together after they've hit the floor.
Supporters have to understand something: Alex Smith detractors do "not want to see Smith do badly." You might think that (though I don't know why) -- but it's simply not true.
Bottom line? We'd LOVE to see Smith light it up. LOVE IT.
But -- this is FACT:
He hasn't lit it up. He's had five years to light it up. He's failed to do it. We don't think he can do it. Why would we -- since he's shown no inclination to do so since he first got here.
THAT sir -- is where the main point of disagreement is. You think he can do it. We don't think he can. We ask for proof. We get ridiculed instead -- and named as founding members of the "ACP Club" or Patrol or whatever you want to call it.
We want to see the 49ers make the playoffs just as badly as you do -- but we hold a collective agreement that Smith isn't going to get us there.
And -- the Mods won't let us have our own thread. 
that is the best summary of my feelings on this topic that I've ever read. I would LOVE to see Smith light it up. I'll be his biggest fan. But my allegiance is to the niners, not to this meek, book smart, non-instinctual, and non-functional player who has held us up for going on five years now. And I'm absolutely going insane over this perennial tolerance and excuse making over his incompetence.
VERY NICE POST!!!
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4evrfan
- Veteran
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- Posts: 3,061
Originally posted by Norcal9erfan:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
LOL Football Outsiders analyst says about Alex Smith:
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
I had that suspicion about his stats last year, which were marginal to begin with.
They also said last year that the Rams were gonna win the west
You are confusing a prediction vs a historical analysis of past events? Those are two extremely different things, you understand that right? If predicting was easy, then Vegas would be bankrupt. Historical analysis is what these guys do well. Mustering up an 81 passer rating against bad defenses is like falling off a log.
What historical analysis did they use to make this statement
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
do I really have to explain this to you? Or are you just trying to be cute....
Guys,
I'd have to say that the Football outsiders are wrong on this one. Here's the basic overview of the numbers that should be a sanity check for their data.
Here's the 09 teams we played and Alex's QB rating against them...
(I rate teams D off of Points per game just to get us into the ballpark range)
GB Packers........ #7 D - AS QB rate 88.8
Indy Colts.......... #8 D - AS QB rate 74.7
AZ Cards........... #14 D - AS QB rate 59.7
Philly Eagles....... #19 D - AS QB rate 42.3
Chi-town Bears... #21 D - AS QB rate 63.3
Jacksonville Jags. #24 D - AS QB rate 96.8
Seattle Seacocks. #25 D - AS QB rate 95.6
Tenn Titans........ #28 D - AS QB rate 69.3
STL Rams.......... #31 D - AS QB rate 97.6
Det Lions........... #32 D AS QB rate 97.5
So as you see, Alex did ok against the top 1/3 of the NFL, piss poor against the Middle of the pack and really good against the Bottom 1/3.
Alex played 2 teams in the top 1/3, 3 teams in the Middle 1/3, and 5 teams in the bottom 1/3.
So to say that he racked up his stats against the bottom of the barrel, is not so accurate when 50% of his starts were against these teams and he also looked average (not poor) against the top 1/3 group...
DNiner to the rescue!
ok, now I see that the analysis above by Dniner was based on their defensive rankings. Nice work!
What this tells me is that Smith was only able to register an 80%+ passer rating against ONE team in the NFL that had a defense rated higher than the 24th in the league. That is the very definition of piss-poor, to use Dniner's terminology. This to me reaffirms the analysis done on Smith in that article.
Your analysis affirms to me that you have very little clue what your talking about, QB rating isn't on a percentage basis, how can a QB get 158.3%? 80% of 158.3 is 126.64, which if he did attain over the year would break the record for a single season QB rating(Peyton Manning 121.1) by 5 points.
Props to Dniner for trying to bring everyone back into reality, unfortunately it will still get lost on the haters. You even discounted the texans game so haters couldnt say that doesn't count (118.6 btw).
Bottom line is Alex Smith looked average last year, he had good games and bad games. Dniner showed that, and showed that football outsiders may have misspoke on this topic, and in reality may just be a bunch of nerds and fantasy ballers in a backroom who don't know anything more than anyone else.
chances are that I've taken tons more bacherlors and masters level stats classes than you. I understand that passer rating is not a '%', but most people call it that. that doesn't debunk what I said in any way.
First off, I said little clue first of all not no clue It doesn't debunk or re-affirm your view. I for one have never heard a QB rating shown as a %, who knows maybe its just me.
Also I'm more than happy to compare college transcripts, masters transcript and even a CPA score against a percentile compare to any qualification you have against a percentile. Taking statistics only proves that with NFL type stats, you can make the data look what you want it to look like, their is too many variables and too short of a season to get a representative sample. So we rely on a completely flawed stat like QB rating to tell us whether a QB played well or not.
Anyways the data shows that alex sucks against mid level teams, honestly I would rank the bears even lower than Dniner did, but he took PPG not passing defense or anything like that. Which would show Alex had sh*tty games against sh*tty teams too.
Is this an educational title pissing contest? If so, why do I not believe you?? How is the QB rating flawed?? Also, I did re-calculate Alex's QB rating against Passing Defense and Total Defense, but didn't post the results because there were only 3 or 4 teams that he played against that were in the top 15 in both categories. The results showed he had an average QB rating in the 70s against top 15 and bottom 15 Ds.
One additional point to Mr High, and I'm not trying to be a smartass (ok, maybe just a little). If you're going to argue educational credentials and actually highlight an area for emphasis, you might want to check the grammar and spelling. "Their is too many variables"? Ouch!
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billbird2111
- Veteran
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- Posts: 18,099
Originally posted by dtcomposer:
To BillBird
This is such an old argument. Just because you say that you want Alex to do well doesn't mean anything.
For an example: The Seattle Game where Smith had perhaps his best game. Go back and look at the comments. The "ACP" or whatever people are calling the haters these days, for the most part, harped on the last throw, or said "he's only had one 300 yd game now" etc.
You see that since the ACP's (and the Alexcusionists or whatever they are called) are both emotionally invested in Alex's Success or failure for personal/ pride/ validation reasons, they interpret things with a bias. That is the problem. So what some on here are saying is that it doesn't matter what Smith does well (again as evidenced by the Seattle game last year) The ACP's will focus on any negatives to make themselves feel like their view is correct. While on the other hand the real hard core Alexcusionists will do the same thing by over-looking his faults. IT is so funny when somebody from one faction calls out the other - like you just did - for doing something that they themselves are promulgating in posts all the time.
To DTComposer:
RE: Alex Smith
Response: BULL
I personally don't believe Alex had one good game last year. He had some average games. He had some below average games. And -- in others -- he just sucked.
I hope you're not referring to the game
AT Seattle. If you call this "good quarterbacking," then we will never agree on this point. Heck -- I don't think we'd agree on what's black and what's white.
Good quarterbacks do not have games like Alex had against the Bears -- in front of the home crowd. Good quarterbacks take advantage of their counterparts when they throw five interceptions in one game. Good quarterbacks turn a five-pick game into blowouts.
Good quarterbacks do not play the Rams to a first half tie during the last game of the regular season.
Did you miss those games? And you're calling me biased? Really?
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sincalfaithful
- Veteran
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- Posts: 27,712
I'm on this bandwagon and will support alex...however if nate davis comes in and performs then I will eat crow but until then i support alex
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TheRickestRick
- Veteran
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- Posts: 10,450
Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Originally posted by Norcal9erfan:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
LOL Football Outsiders analyst says about Alex Smith:
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
I had that suspicion about his stats last year, which were marginal to begin with.
They also said last year that the Rams were gonna win the west
You are confusing a prediction vs a historical analysis of past events? Those are two extremely different things, you understand that right? If predicting was easy, then Vegas would be bankrupt. Historical analysis is what these guys do well. Mustering up an 81 passer rating against bad defenses is like falling off a log.
What historical analysis did they use to make this statement
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
do I really have to explain this to you? Or are you just trying to be cute....
Guys,
I'd have to say that the Football outsiders are wrong on this one. Here's the basic overview of the numbers that should be a sanity check for their data.
Here's the 09 teams we played and Alex's QB rating against them...
(I rate teams D off of Points per game just to get us into the ballpark range)
GB Packers........ #7 D - AS QB rate 88.8
Indy Colts.......... #8 D - AS QB rate 74.7
AZ Cards........... #14 D - AS QB rate 59.7
Philly Eagles....... #19 D - AS QB rate 42.3
Chi-town Bears... #21 D - AS QB rate 63.3
Jacksonville Jags. #24 D - AS QB rate 96.8
Seattle Seacocks. #25 D - AS QB rate 95.6
Tenn Titans........ #28 D - AS QB rate 69.3
STL Rams.......... #31 D - AS QB rate 97.6
Det Lions........... #32 D AS QB rate 97.5
So as you see, Alex did ok against the top 1/3 of the NFL, piss poor against the Middle of the pack and really good against the Bottom 1/3.
Alex played 2 teams in the top 1/3, 3 teams in the Middle 1/3, and 5 teams in the bottom 1/3.
So to say that he racked up his stats against the bottom of the barrel, is not so accurate when 50% of his starts were against these teams and he also looked average (not poor) against the top 1/3 group...
DNiner to the rescue!
ok, now I see that the analysis above by Dniner was based on their defensive rankings. Nice work!
What this tells me is that Smith was only able to register an 80%+ passer rating against ONE team in the NFL that had a defense rated higher than the 24th in the league. That is the very definition of piss-poor, to use Dniner's terminology. This to me reaffirms the analysis done on Smith in that article.
Your analysis affirms to me that you have very little clue what your talking about, QB rating isn't on a percentage basis, how can a QB get 158.3%? 80% of 158.3 is 126.64, which if he did attain over the year would break the record for a single season QB rating(Peyton Manning 121.1) by 5 points.
Props to Dniner for trying to bring everyone back into reality, unfortunately it will still get lost on the haters. You even discounted the texans game so haters couldnt say that doesn't count (118.6 btw).
Bottom line is Alex Smith looked average last year, he had good games and bad games. Dniner showed that, and showed that football outsiders may have misspoke on this topic, and in reality may just be a bunch of nerds and fantasy ballers in a backroom who don't know anything more than anyone else.
chances are that I've taken tons more bacherlors and masters level stats classes than you. I understand that passer rating is not a '%', but most people call it that. that doesn't debunk what I said in any way.
First off, I said little clue first of all not no clue It doesn't debunk or re-affirm your view. I for one have never heard a QB rating shown as a %, who knows maybe its just me.
Also I'm more than happy to compare college transcripts, masters transcript and even a CPA score against a percentile compare to any qualification you have against a percentile. Taking statistics only proves that with NFL type stats, you can make the data look what you want it to look like, their is too many variables and too short of a season to get a representative sample. So we rely on a completely flawed stat like QB rating to tell us whether a QB played well or not.
Anyways the data shows that alex sucks against mid level teams, honestly I would rank the bears even lower than Dniner did, but he took PPG not passing defense or anything like that. Which would show Alex had sh*tty games against sh*tty teams too.
Is this an educational title pissing contest? If so, why do I not believe you?? How is the QB rating flawed?? Also, I did re-calculate Alex's QB rating against Passing Defense and Total Defense, but didn't post the results because there were only 3 or 4 teams that he played against that were in the top 15 in both categories. The results showed he had an average QB rating in the 70s against top 15 and bottom 15 Ds.
One additional point to Mr High, and I'm not trying to be a smartass (ok, maybe just a little). If you're going to argue educational credentials and actually highlight an area for emphasis, you might want to check the grammar and spelling. "Their is too many variables"? Ouch!
Lol, thats why I chose Math/Accounting and not English. And I don't care about educational "measuring" contests. We can leave it at that. I also didn't mean to call out anybody, if that's how it was interpreted I was just having fun, isn't that why this board exists? You can look at any of my posts and they are typically well thought out and constructive.
Anyways, until they get a spell-check function (not the red lines cause that just means more work while im at work
), there will be multiple more grammatical mistakes and spelling errors cause I review my points not my spelling before posting. And I think we can all agree a little smack talk is fun, but internet measuring contests are about as useful as dating a hot chick with a d*ck that don't work.
[ Edited by 5280High on Aug 19, 2010 at 14:02:29 ]
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Jersey9er
- Veteran
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- Posts: 3,972
It's mind boggling at times, and it's funny, that the first bad day Smith had during TC, thats when all the negativity came out full blown.
Some of you guys with Stats, are just like people that use the Bible to prove points. One could show u a scripture of how it's ok to harm, or do this or that, if it's necessary. Then someone could turn right back around, and say hey, look at this story, on how this is bad. When i pledged my fraternity in college, someone actually brought me a piece of paper that said how pledging was wrong, and backed it up with Bible scriptures. All i could say was wow.
And i use that example, because i hear true PLAYERS, not just QB's, make mental notes about how they approach the game. Then i say u know what, f**k what we as fans feel, because these men play the game. They have their hand full blown in the stuff that we discuss on a daily basis.
some things that have been said, by elite players...
1. Jerry Rice- If your a WR and the ball comes in your direction, i dont care if it comes down side ways u catch it. I use this because i'll say this, since Young and Garcia played QB, a lot of our players have had TONS of drops. Whether it was HIll, Smith, JTO, passing the ball, but we take this fact lightly for some reason.
2. Even in the days we had Rattay, and Rashaun Woods, and im sure a few others u guys know who didnt do squat. I've never heard of any teams die hard fans attacking any of our players verbally in any manner as i have since i first joined the zone. Now dont get me wrong, have opinions, show frustration, and even get a little crazy, definitely. But to bash one player, and make it all about one player, never seen that like in here.
3. Favre, Montana, Young... While watching all their interviews, and just like Brett said yesterday, yeah we have have tons of guys with talent, but if we cant all come together co-hesively, and be on the same page, then we cant win. I have to do my part, but they also have to as well for us to be successful. Winning teams have everything in place to make it work.
Really? Not according to the zone. With some of us, it's all about the QB, and nothing else. QB aint right, we fail. But u have SB champ Dilfer, etc. Sanchez played ok last year, but had they not had the no 1. running offense and top defense, u still think, theyd be in the post-season???????
4. Tons of games last year where even after a win, we completely ripped certain players, whether just Smith or not. Im like WOW, we've really gotten that bad as fans, where even in a win we still complain.
Brees said during an interview last year, that honestly i dont care if we win by 1pt, every game. We still won, and thats what the game is about W's and L's. But nope, not to ninerfans for some reason. Hearing the words, " the 49ers are making these basic players look like pro-bowlers", and no, not just late in the game, when we may have been behind. I'm talking about the clinics that we let happen. but lets not worry bout that too much, right.
5. Some of us b***h toooooooons about how continuity in practice, etc. is this or that, but during practice time, even going back 3 to 5 years. I cant tell u one offseason, where EVERYONE was there that needed to be or us wasting time on some QB controversy.
Smith's main weapons are Gore, Crabs, and VD currently. Besides VD, just like Raye said, there has to be a point where they all come together, where ALL THE STARTERS, build that rapport and practice together week in and out. Ginn played starter for crabs i think this past game. But Ginn is no crabs. Robinson, Dixon etc, played most of the game, they are no Gore. Some say how Campbell was ultimately hampered, by diff o'c's. that continuity is needed for him to really make some noise. He hasnt won anything, just like Smith, but everyone can make a case for him, but no one can for Smith?????
We say it's pre-season, and it's all about tweeking things a bit. Well if thats the case, then just like Favre said again in order for things to work, everything has to be in place. You cant tweek a timing pattern if your weapons arent there. You cant say we'll get that down, but never practice together at it.
Overall, some of you dont hold everyone to the same standards. Alot say Smith played well against crappy teams. Well if i believe correctly our defense also lost against proven teams. And had some of their biggest defensive numbers during the period in which we played the suck ass teams.
And i said that even at the end of the season. So if our D can destroy bad teams, and Alex prevails against bad teams, then they're in the same boat. Top 5 D is all fine and dandy, but if u fail when it counts most, who cares about stats. Support our team, not just one player... cant it ever happen in here?
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dtcomposer
- Veteran
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- Posts: 1,417
Originally posted by billbird2111:
Originally posted by dtcomposer:
To BillBird
This is such an old argument. Just because you say that you want Alex to do well doesn't mean anything.
For an example: The Seattle Game where Smith had perhaps his best game. Go back and look at the comments. The "ACP" or whatever people are calling the haters these days, for the most part, harped on the last throw, or said "he's only had one 300 yd game now" etc.
You see that since the ACP's (and the Alexcusionists or whatever they are called) are both emotionally invested in Alex's Success or failure for personal/ pride/ validation reasons, they interpret things with a bias. That is the problem. So what some on here are saying is that it doesn't matter what Smith does well (again as evidenced by the Seattle game last year) The ACP's will focus on any negatives to make themselves feel like their view is correct. While on the other hand the real hard core Alexcusionists will do the same thing by over-looking his faults. IT is so funny when somebody from one faction calls out the other - like you just did - for doing something that they themselves are promulgating in posts all the time.
To DTComposer:
RE: Alex Smith
Response: BULL
I personally don't believe Alex had one good game last year. He had some average games. He had some below average games. And -- in others -- he just sucked.
I hope you're not referring to the game AT Seattle. If you call this "good quarterbacking," then we will never agree on this point. Heck -- I don't think we'd agree on what's black and what's white.
Good quarterbacks do not have games like Alex had against the Bears -- in front of the home crowd. Good quarterbacks take advantage of their counterparts when they throw five interceptions in one game. Good quarterbacks turn a five-pick game into blowouts.
Good quarterbacks do not play the Rams to a first half tie during the last game of the regular season.
Did you miss those games? And you're calling me biased? Really?
You have proven my point. I am not invested in Smith at all other than the fact that I want him to win if he is the quarterback. I can look at that Seattle game as one example where Smith performed very well, and was one of the main reasons that The 49ers were in that game. I never specifically mentioned the games in which he performed poorly because it didn't have anything to do with my point in this case.
Instead of having an honest intellectual conversation about that Seattle game, and subsequent comments, you make a general comment, unsupported by facts or logic (in-fact proving what I had said before about being biased and letting that interpret how you saw that game) and then move on to try and disprove me by touting games in which alex was not as good, or not good at all.
I wasn't arguing the merits of Alex's season last year as a whole, but I was arguing that for those of you who say "If Alex does well, we will support him", I am calling BS. Your actions in the past show that you have chosen not to do that when opportunities presented themselves. Furthermore, Your reaction in your last post illustrates exactly what I am trying to explain, so thanks.
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4evrfan
- Veteran
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- Posts: 3,061
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by 4evrfan:
Originally posted by Norcal9erfan:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by Shaj:
LOL Football Outsiders analyst says about Alex Smith:
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
I had that suspicion about his stats last year, which were marginal to begin with.
They also said last year that the Rams were gonna win the west
You are confusing a prediction vs a historical analysis of past events? Those are two extremely different things, you understand that right? If predicting was easy, then Vegas would be bankrupt. Historical analysis is what these guys do well. Mustering up an 81 passer rating against bad defenses is like falling off a log.
What historical analysis did they use to make this statement
Alex Smith’s numbers are deceptive. Smith established a career high with 18 TDs and an 81.5 quarterback rating, but Barnwell argues that he did it against “pretty much every weak defensive team.”
do I really have to explain this to you? Or are you just trying to be cute....
Guys,
I'd have to say that the Football outsiders are wrong on this one. Here's the basic overview of the numbers that should be a sanity check for their data.
Here's the 09 teams we played and Alex's QB rating against them...
(I rate teams D off of Points per game just to get us into the ballpark range)
GB Packers........ #7 D - AS QB rate 88.8
Indy Colts.......... #8 D - AS QB rate 74.7
AZ Cards........... #14 D - AS QB rate 59.7
Philly Eagles....... #19 D - AS QB rate 42.3
Chi-town Bears... #21 D - AS QB rate 63.3
Jacksonville Jags. #24 D - AS QB rate 96.8
Seattle Seacocks. #25 D - AS QB rate 95.6
Tenn Titans........ #28 D - AS QB rate 69.3
STL Rams.......... #31 D - AS QB rate 97.6
Det Lions........... #32 D AS QB rate 97.5
So as you see, Alex did ok against the top 1/3 of the NFL, piss poor against the Middle of the pack and really good against the Bottom 1/3.
Alex played 2 teams in the top 1/3, 3 teams in the Middle 1/3, and 5 teams in the bottom 1/3.
So to say that he racked up his stats against the bottom of the barrel, is not so accurate when 50% of his starts were against these teams and he also looked average (not poor) against the top 1/3 group...
DNiner to the rescue!
ok, now I see that the analysis above by Dniner was based on their defensive rankings. Nice work!
What this tells me is that Smith was only able to register an 80%+ passer rating against ONE team in the NFL that had a defense rated higher than the 24th in the league. That is the very definition of piss-poor, to use Dniner's terminology. This to me reaffirms the analysis done on Smith in that article.
Your analysis affirms to me that you have very little clue what your talking about, QB rating isn't on a percentage basis, how can a QB get 158.3%? 80% of 158.3 is 126.64, which if he did attain over the year would break the record for a single season QB rating(Peyton Manning 121.1) by 5 points.
Props to Dniner for trying to bring everyone back into reality, unfortunately it will still get lost on the haters. You even discounted the texans game so haters couldnt say that doesn't count (118.6 btw).
Bottom line is Alex Smith looked average last year, he had good games and bad games. Dniner showed that, and showed that football outsiders may have misspoke on this topic, and in reality may just be a bunch of nerds and fantasy ballers in a backroom who don't know anything more than anyone else.
chances are that I've taken tons more bacherlors and masters level stats classes than you. I understand that passer rating is not a '%', but most people call it that. that doesn't debunk what I said in any way.
First off, I said little clue first of all not no clue It doesn't debunk or re-affirm your view. I for one have never heard a QB rating shown as a %, who knows maybe its just me.
Also I'm more than happy to compare college transcripts, masters transcript and even a CPA score against a percentile compare to any qualification you have against a percentile. Taking statistics only proves that with NFL type stats, you can make the data look what you want it to look like, their is too many variables and too short of a season to get a representative sample. So we rely on a completely flawed stat like QB rating to tell us whether a QB played well or not.
Anyways the data shows that alex sucks against mid level teams, honestly I would rank the bears even lower than Dniner did, but he took PPG not passing defense or anything like that. Which would show Alex had sh*tty games against sh*tty teams too.
Is this an educational title pissing contest? If so, why do I not believe you?? How is the QB rating flawed?? Also, I did re-calculate Alex's QB rating against Passing Defense and Total Defense, but didn't post the results because there were only 3 or 4 teams that he played against that were in the top 15 in both categories. The results showed he had an average QB rating in the 70s against top 15 and bottom 15 Ds.
One additional point to Mr High, and I'm not trying to be a smartass (ok, maybe just a little). If you're going to argue educational credentials and actually highlight an area for emphasis, you might want to check the grammar and spelling. "Their is too many variables"? Ouch!
Lol, thats why I chose Math/Accounting and not English. And I don't care about educational "measuring" contests. We can leave it at that. I also didn't mean to call out anybody, if that's how it was interpreted I was just having fun, isn't that why this board exists? You can look at any of my posts and they are typically well thought out and constructive.
Anyways, until they get a spell-check function (not the red lines cause that just means more work while im at work ), there will be multiple more grammatical mistakes and spelling errors cause I review my points not my spelling before posting. And I think we can all agree a little smack talk is fun, but internet measuring contests are about as useful as dating a hot chick with a d*ck that don't work.
I don't want a hot chick with a d!ck of any kind, but if she has to have one, I'd prefer it DIDN'T work! You're right. This IS fun!
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Mr.Mcgibblets
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- Posts: 15,079
Originally posted by Jersey9er:
1. Jerry Rice- If your a WR and the ball comes in your direction, i dont care if it comes down side ways u catch it. I use this because i'll say this, since Young and Garcia played QB, a lot of our players have had TONS of drops. Whether it was HIll, Smith, JTO, passing the ball, but we take this fact lightly for some reason.
2. Even in the days we had Rattay, and Rashaun Woods, and im sure a few others u guys know who didnt do squat. I've never heard of any teams die hard fans attacking any of our players verbally in any manner as i have since i first joined the zone. Now dont get me wrong, have opinions, show frustration, and even get a little crazy, definitely. But to bash one player, and make it all about one player, never seen that like in here.
3. Favre, Montana, Young... While watching all their interviews, and just like Brett said yesterday, yeah we have have tons of guys with talent, but if we cant all come together co-hesively, and be on the same page, then we cant win. I have to do my part, but they also have to as well for us to be successful. Winning teams have everything in place to make it work.
Really? Not according to the zone. With some of us, it's all about the QB, and nothing else. QB aint right, we fail. But u have SB champ Dilfer, etc. Sanchez played ok last year, but had they not had the no 1. running offense and top defense, u still think, theyd be in the post-season???????
This whole post was a thing of beauty, jersey, so I won't quote it all to say,
.
