Originally posted by DownSouth:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You provide some good points, and have obviously done some homework. Well-done. Here is my response below:
I have never argued that slotting does not exist. Here is what I stated earlier in this thread:
I have argued for some time now that Crabtree's contract is going to be unusual at the end. Either it is going to have more guaranteed money than some of the players drafted above him, or his annual salary will surpass players drafted above him.
I could see Crab's eventual contract being somewhat different. However, I don't see Crab getting more guaranteed money than the guys in front of him unless he signs a realistic contract for the maximum length (no voidable years or big numbers forcing us to cut him before the last year, etc). And if he has a higher AYS, it's a largely meaningless number. I will concede that the "total value" of his contract could exceed those above him b/c of unrealistic incentives, but my worry in the case of a "fake" AYS is that it sets a very bad precedent for future draft picks. Other agents will be forced to do it b/c it makes the contract "look" bigger.
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Further, I have always stated that the notion that Crabtree should simply bow to the sanctity of the slotting, which does not exist, would be foolish. There are circumstances where players, for some reason, either gain an imbalance in either their total contract numbers, annual salary, or guaranteed money[/i]
I sort of agree. I can't blame Crab for trying to get as much money as he can. This could be his only shot at millions, so go for it.
The problem is that Crab and his agent must realize that it's somewhat unrealistic to expect more guaranteed money than is due for his slot b/c nonQB guarantees follow the slotting process. It looks pretty apparent that the Niners are not going to cave to Crab's demands and that the team is willing to sign him to a slotted deal. Again, I don't blame Crab for trying to get as much as he can, but reality is knocking at his door and he can choose to ignore it at his peril. It doesn't look like Crab's gonna answer the door anytime soon.
Further, I don't buy Crab/Parker's reasoning for "I deserve more." Crab was a great college player? Get in line. He was injured and didn't get to workout so his stock fell? Tell it to A. Peterson or W. McGahee. He should've been drafted higher? Leinart, V.Wilfork, R.Moss, A.Peterson all say "cry me a river." What I'm saying is that Crab is NOT unique. Every few years, a player falls due to an injury, 1 bad game, or for no reason at all. What makes Crab different than all of them?
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As for the annual salary, while it is true that many players have hard-to-reach incentives, many also have fairly easy-to-reach incentives.
True. That's why i included the "log" bonus in the guarantees I was talking about. It isn't techincally a guarantee, but 99% of 1st rd picks actually receive it b/c getting it is as easy as "falling off a log." It's usually something simple like participating in 20% of the offensive snaps or something.
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P.S. There is one flaw with your AYS case study. In the case of most first round rookies, they are going to play out their original contract (five or six years). If incentives are met, the annual salary can be a basis of comparing the final terms of the contract.
Ordinarily, you're right. But, with the increasing use of voidable years and buy-backs, that is not the case as often as it used to be, particularly with rookies in the top half of rd 1.
Once again, a very well-reasoned argument.
We disagree on Crabtree's argument that because he fell due to injury, and was not able to work out, he should be compensated irregularly.
I tend to agree with Crabtree's position. Crabtree was bonafide top 5, top 7 selection as February emerged. He was the most dynamic player entering this draft, after a stellar college career. He was easily the top rated WR, and had a number of teams targetting him with the 4th, 5th, and 7th selections. Some would argue the 8th as well.
Due to his injury, and not being to participate at the combine, and campus workout, he dropped from being drafted early. Teams in those top slots are really reluctant to use their ultra high first rounder on a player who has not worked out for them, and posted a forty time. The Raiders, some would say the Jags, was the floor for a healthy Crabtree.
You asked the question: What makes Crab different than all of them (referring to other draftees who were drafted later than expected in previous years? Good question. Let me go player by player.
Crabtree's injury was not as serious as McGahee, who many thought would never re-emerge on a football field. Many draft experts were shocked that McGahee was drafted in the first round at all. Most, including myself, projected him at least a round, two rounds, or more later in the draft, due its' severity, and that he would not be able to play at all in his rookie season.
Peterson had a history of injuries beyond the fractured colarbone (during his freshman year he suffered a dislocated shoulder. In his sophomore year he had a high ankle sprain and in his junior year he broke his collarbone), coming into the draft. Furthermore, Peterson missed a sizable chunk of his final season in college, unlike Crabtree, who competed through the final game. Finally, another RB did not leap over Peterson due to his injury, unlike DHB, who lept over Crabtree in the draft. Peterson's upright running style concerned many scouts. In other words, Peterson carried many more concerns entering the draft.
As for Leinart, there was not an injury which caused him to plummet. He dropped mostly due to concerns that his arm strength would not be adequate in the NFL.
Moss had character issues, most importantly, a well-documented history with the funky monkey, and a battery charge against him in a nasty fight. This drove him down the board. And, beside that point, Crabtree was a more high profile player going into the draft compared to Moss.
Wilfork was not a high-profile player entering the draft, and few, if any experts listed him as a top 10 selection.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Aug 11, 2009 at 09:24:39 ]
.......... "SHIFT DELETE", "SHIFT DELETE" 
He'll sign soon...unless he's a total moron, in which case we are better off without him!