When will Michael Crabtree be signed?

buck,

Nice work on crunching numbers. We are seeing a more conservative trend in slotting in 2009 compared to 2008 and 2007. However, as you noted, there have been exceptions. Interesting to see that Jason Smith will average more per year than Stafford.

On the guaranteed salary chart, you have doubled up on Beanie Wells.

I think we will surely see Crabtree out of his slot. However, the enormous raise in DHB's contract over last year's number 7 is causing problems for Andre Smith, Crabtree, Monroe and Raji. Thanks, Jump Suit Man!!!

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Oh, the power of the internet. The mythology of the slotting is debunked once again. Here are the numbers from the first rounders in 2008. Gosh, this took a whole minute to find. Serious investigative journalism. Join me in debunking the equivalent to the Abominable Snowman, Bigfoot, Atlantis, aliens living amongst us, and much, much more.

At some point, will some journalist stand up, do a one minute Google search, and join the intellectual portion of the world. Why live in denial?

Signing status of 2008 NFL Draft first-round picks
NFL.com

Pk Player Pos. Team Status Contract
1. Jake Long OT Miami Signed 5 years, $57.5 million ($30M guaranteed)
2. Chris Long DE St. Louis Signed 6 years, $56.5 million ($29M guaranteed)
3. Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Signed 6 years, $72 million ($34M guaranteed)
4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland Signed 6 years, $60 million ($26M guaranteed)
5. Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Signed 5 years, $51 million ($23M guaranteed)
6. Vernon Gholston DE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $50 million ($21M guaranteed)
7. Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans Signed 5 years, $49 million ($19.5M guaranteed)
8. Derrick Harvey DE Jacksonville Signed 5 years, $33.4 million ($17.177M guaranteed)
9. Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati Signed 6 years, $23 million ($15.6M guaranteed)
[b]10. Jerod Mayo LB New England Signed 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed)
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Buffalo Signed 5 years, $19.4 million ($12.6M guaranteed)
12. Ryan Clady OT Denver Signed 5 years, $17.5 million ($11.5M guaranteed)
13. Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina Signed 5 years, $20 million ($10.795M guaranteed)
14. Chris Williams OT Chicago Signed 5 years, $16 million ($10M guaranteed)
15. Branden Albert OG Kansas City Signed 5 years, $15.8 million ($9.2M guaranteed)
16. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Arizona Signed 5 years, $15.1 million ($9M guaranteed)
[b]17. Gosder Cherilus OT Detroit Signed 5 years, $15 million ($8.9M guaranteed)
18. Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Signed 5 years, $30 million ($8.75M guaranteed)
19. Jeff Otah OT Carolina Signed 5 years, $14.4 million ($8.965M guaranteed)
20. Aqib Talib CB Tampa Bay Signed 5 years, $14 million ($8.2M guaranteed)
21. Sam Baker OT Atlanta Signed 5 years, $13.5 million ($7.8M guaranteed)
22. Felix Jones RB Dallas Signed 5 years, $10.5 million ($8M guaranteed)
23. Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Signed 5 years, $12.555 million ($7.125M guaranteed)
24. Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Signed 5 years, $12 million ($7M guaranteed)
25. Mike Jenkins CB Dallas Signed 5 yaers, $9.7 million ($7M guaranteed)
26. Duane Brown OT Houston Signed 5 years, $11.4 million ($6.5M guaranteed)
27. Antoine Cason CB San Diego Signed 5 years, $12.03 million
28. Lawrence Jackson DE Seattle Signed 5 years, $11.25 million ($6.1M guaranteed)
29. Kentwan Balmer DE San Francisco Signed 5 years, $11.5 million ($6M guaranteed)
30. Dustin Keller TE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $12 million ($6M guaranteed)
31. Kenny Phillips FS N.Y. Giants Signed 5 years, $11.15 million

2008 First Rounders: Littered with Slotting Busters

How many examples do people want? 100, 1000. What will convince them that the sanctity of the slotting is a hoax.

P.S. Maybe a math genius can help me count how many guys are out of their slot. Seems like more than half, right. In fact, this is a fun math game to play. Figure out how many out of slot selections were in the first round last year.

I could break this entire thing down for the board, but it would probably take me hours to compose, and people would eventually complain that it is too lengthy.

And, this was ONE round of ONE year.

"Geez, MadDog, you are a genius!"
Response: "Yes, I can read!"

Cheers.

Question, aside from Ryan (Qb's usually make more) aren't all other subsequent players slotted correctly for guaranteed money? Everybody is making more then the guy directly below him. The only other 2 contracts that were bigger then the previous guy were only for $200,000, not a lot of money compared to the overall contract. Furthermore I'm not seeing a leapfrog happen with 2 players that play the same position or a salary jump of 3 players total. I get your point but............

30
29
34
26
23
21
19.5
17.1
15.6
13.8
12.6
11.5
10.7
10
9.2
9
8.9
8.7
8.9
8.2
7.8
8
7.1
7
7
6.5
NA
6.1
6
6
NA

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Oh, the power of the internet. The mythology of the slotting is debunked once again. Here are the numbers from the first rounders in 2008. Gosh, this took a whole minute to find. Serious investigative journalism. Join me in debunking the equivalent to the Abominable Snowman, Bigfoot, Atlantis, aliens living amongst us, and much, much more.

At some point, will some journalist stand up, do a one minute Google search, and join the intellectual portion of the world. Why live in denial?

Signing status of 2008 NFL Draft first-round picks
NFL.com

Pk Player Pos. Team Status Contract
1. Jake Long OT Miami Signed 5 years, $57.5 million ($30M guaranteed)
2. Chris Long DE St. Louis Signed 6 years, $56.5 million ($29M guaranteed)
3. Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Signed 6 years, $72 million ($34M guaranteed)
4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland Signed 6 years, $60 million ($26M guaranteed)
5. Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Signed 5 years, $51 million ($23M guaranteed)
6. Vernon Gholston DE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $50 million ($21M guaranteed)
7. Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans Signed 5 years, $49 million ($19.5M guaranteed)
8. Derrick Harvey DE Jacksonville Signed 5 years, $33.4 million ($17.177M guaranteed)
9. Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati Signed 6 years, $23 million ($15.6M guaranteed)
[b]10. Jerod Mayo LB New England Signed 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed)
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Buffalo Signed 5 years, $19.4 million ($12.6M guaranteed)
12. Ryan Clady OT Denver Signed 5 years, $17.5 million ($11.5M guaranteed)
13. Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina Signed 5 years, $20 million ($10.795M guaranteed)
14. Chris Williams OT Chicago Signed 5 years, $16 million ($10M guaranteed)
15. Branden Albert OG Kansas City Signed 5 years, $15.8 million ($9.2M guaranteed)
16. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Arizona Signed 5 years, $15.1 million ($9M guaranteed)
[b]17. Gosder Cherilus OT Detroit Signed 5 years, $15 million ($8.9M guaranteed)
18. Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Signed 5 years, $30 million ($8.75M guaranteed)
19. Jeff Otah OT Carolina Signed 5 years, $14.4 million ($8.965M guaranteed)
20. Aqib Talib CB Tampa Bay Signed 5 years, $14 million ($8.2M guaranteed)
21. Sam Baker OT Atlanta Signed 5 years, $13.5 million ($7.8M guaranteed)
22. Felix Jones RB Dallas Signed 5 years, $10.5 million ($8M guaranteed)
23. Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Signed 5 years, $12.555 million ($7.125M guaranteed)
24. Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Signed 5 years, $12 million ($7M guaranteed)
25. Mike Jenkins CB Dallas Signed 5 yaers, $9.7 million ($7M guaranteed)
26. Duane Brown OT Houston Signed 5 years, $11.4 million ($6.5M guaranteed)
27. Antoine Cason CB San Diego Signed 5 years, $12.03 million
28. Lawrence Jackson DE Seattle Signed 5 years, $11.25 million ($6.1M guaranteed)
29. Kentwan Balmer DE San Francisco Signed 5 years, $11.5 million ($6M guaranteed)
30. Dustin Keller TE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $12 million ($6M guaranteed)
31. Kenny Phillips FS N.Y. Giants Signed 5 years, $11.15 million

2008 First Rounders: Littered with Slotting Busters

How many examples do people want? 100, 1000. What will convince them that the sanctity of the slotting is a hoax.

P.S. Maybe a math genius can help me count how many guys are out of their slot. Seems like more than half, right. In fact, this is a fun math game to play. Figure out how many out of slot selections were in the first round last year.

I could break this entire thing down for the board, but it would probably take me hours to compose, and people would eventually complain that it is too lengthy.

And, this was ONE round of ONE year.

"Geez, MadDog, you are a genius!"
Response: "Yes, I can read!"

Cheers.

Question, aside from Ryan (Qb's usually make more) aren't all other subsequent players slotted correctly for guaranteed money? Everybody is making more then the guy directly below him. The only other 2 contracts that were bigger then the previous guy were only for $200,000, not a lot of money compared to the overall contract. Furthermore I'm not seeing a leapfrog happen with 2 players that play the same position or a salary jump of 3 players total. I get your point but............

30
29
34
26
23
21
19.5
17.1
15.6
13.8
12.6
11.5
10.7
10
9.2
9
8.9
8.7
8.9
8.2
7.8
8
7.1
7
7
6.5
NA
6.1
6
6
NA

This.

The only one out of his slot is Ryan because he is a Qb.

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Oh, the power of the internet. The mythology of the slotting is debunked once again. Here are the numbers from the first rounders in 2008. Gosh, this took a whole minute to find. Serious investigative journalism. Join me in debunking the equivalent to the Abominable Snowman, Bigfoot, Atlantis, aliens living amongst us, and much, much more.

At some point, will some journalist stand up, do a one minute Google search, and join the intellectual portion of the world. Why live in denial?

Signing status of 2008 NFL Draft first-round picks
NFL.com

Pk Player Pos. Team Status Contract
1. Jake Long OT Miami Signed 5 years, $57.5 million ($30M guaranteed)
2. Chris Long DE St. Louis Signed 6 years, $56.5 million ($29M guaranteed)
3. Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Signed 6 years, $72 million ($34M guaranteed)
4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland Signed 6 years, $60 million ($26M guaranteed)
5. Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Signed 5 years, $51 million ($23M guaranteed)
6. Vernon Gholston DE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $50 million ($21M guaranteed)
7. Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans Signed 5 years, $49 million ($19.5M guaranteed)
8. Derrick Harvey DE Jacksonville Signed 5 years, $33.4 million ($17.177M guaranteed)
9. Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati Signed 6 years, $23 million ($15.6M guaranteed)
[b]10. Jerod Mayo LB New England Signed 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed)
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Buffalo Signed 5 years, $19.4 million ($12.6M guaranteed)
12. Ryan Clady OT Denver Signed 5 years, $17.5 million ($11.5M guaranteed)
13. Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina Signed 5 years, $20 million ($10.795M guaranteed)
14. Chris Williams OT Chicago Signed 5 years, $16 million ($10M guaranteed)
15. Branden Albert OG Kansas City Signed 5 years, $15.8 million ($9.2M guaranteed)
16. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Arizona Signed 5 years, $15.1 million ($9M guaranteed)
[b]17. Gosder Cherilus OT Detroit Signed 5 years, $15 million ($8.9M guaranteed)
18. Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Signed 5 years, $30 million ($8.75M guaranteed)
19. Jeff Otah OT Carolina Signed 5 years, $14.4 million ($8.965M guaranteed)
20. Aqib Talib CB Tampa Bay Signed 5 years, $14 million ($8.2M guaranteed)
21. Sam Baker OT Atlanta Signed 5 years, $13.5 million ($7.8M guaranteed)
22. Felix Jones RB Dallas Signed 5 years, $10.5 million ($8M guaranteed)
23. Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Signed 5 years, $12.555 million ($7.125M guaranteed)
24. Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Signed 5 years, $12 million ($7M guaranteed)
25. Mike Jenkins CB Dallas Signed 5 yaers, $9.7 million ($7M guaranteed)
26. Duane Brown OT Houston Signed 5 years, $11.4 million ($6.5M guaranteed)
27. Antoine Cason CB San Diego Signed 5 years, $12.03 million
28. Lawrence Jackson DE Seattle Signed 5 years, $11.25 million ($6.1M guaranteed)
29. Kentwan Balmer DE San Francisco Signed 5 years, $11.5 million ($6M guaranteed)
30. Dustin Keller TE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $12 million ($6M guaranteed)
31. Kenny Phillips FS N.Y. Giants Signed 5 years, $11.15 million

2008 First Rounders: Littered with Slotting Busters

How many examples do people want? 100, 1000. What will convince them that the sanctity of the slotting is a hoax.

P.S. Maybe a math genius can help me count how many guys are out of their slot. Seems like more than half, right. In fact, this is a fun math game to play. Figure out how many out of slot selections were in the first round last year.

I could break this entire thing down for the board, but it would probably take me hours to compose, and people would eventually complain that it is too lengthy.

And, this was ONE round of ONE year.

"Geez, MadDog, you are a genius!"
Response: "Yes, I can read!"

Cheers.

Question, aside from Ryan (Qb's usually make more) aren't all other subsequent players slotted correctly for guaranteed money? Everybody is making more then the guy directly below him. The only other 2 contracts that were bigger then the previous guy were only for $200,000, not a lot of money compared to the overall contract. Furthermore I'm not seeing a leapfrog happen with 2 players that play the same position or a salary jump of 3 players total. I get your point but............

30
29
34
26
23
21
19.5
17.1
15.6
13.8
12.6
11.5
10.7
10
9.2
9
8.9
8.7
8.9
8.2
7.8
8
7.1
7
7
6.5
NA
6.1
6
6
NA

You are only looking at guaranteed money, which is certainly one way to slice it. However, slotting is not simply based on this idea. It is also based on average salary per year. Here's how the slotting falls apart. Let me take the first handful of players.

While Chris Long receives a guaranteed salary higher than Darren McFadden, in the end, if the contract plays out, McFadden will make more money, by $3.5 million. However, McFadden's yearly salary is even lower than the player below him, Glenn Dorsey, who will make more per year than Long and McFadden.

McKelvin's salary beats Mayo's, Stewart's salary trumps Clady's. And he list goes on and on. The bottom half of the first round is a disaster, as Dustin Keller's contract leaps over many other draftees.

I have argued for some time now that Crabtree's contract is going to be unusual at the end. Either it is going to have more guaranteed money than some of the players drafted above him, or his annual salary will surpass players drafted above him.

Further, I have always stated that the notion that Crabtree should simply bow to the sanctity of the slotting, which does not exist, would be foolish. There are circumstances where players, for some reason, either gain an imbalance in either their total contract numbers, annual salary, or guaranteed money.

[ Edited by MadDog49er on Aug 10, 2009 at 08:08:51 ]

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Oh, the power of the internet. The mythology of the slotting is debunked once again. Here are the numbers from the first rounders in 2008. Gosh, this took a whole minute to find. Serious investigative journalism. Join me in debunking the equivalent to the Abominable Snowman, Bigfoot, Atlantis, aliens living amongst us, and much, much more.

At some point, will some journalist stand up, do a one minute Google search, and join the intellectual portion of the world. Why live in denial?

Signing status of 2008 NFL Draft first-round picks
NFL.com

Pk Player Pos. Team Status Contract
1. Jake Long OT Miami Signed 5 years, $57.5 million ($30M guaranteed)
2. Chris Long DE St. Louis Signed 6 years, $56.5 million ($29M guaranteed)
3. Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Signed 6 years, $72 million ($34M guaranteed)
4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland Signed 6 years, $60 million ($26M guaranteed)
5. Glenn Dorsey DT Kansas City Signed 5 years, $51 million ($23M guaranteed)
6. Vernon Gholston DE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $50 million ($21M guaranteed)
7. Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans Signed 5 years, $49 million ($19.5M guaranteed)
8. Derrick Harvey DE Jacksonville Signed 5 years, $33.4 million ($17.177M guaranteed)
9. Keith Rivers LB Cincinnati Signed 6 years, $23 million ($15.6M guaranteed)
[b]10. Jerod Mayo LB New England Signed 5 years, $18.9 million ($13.8M guaranteed)
11. Leodis McKelvin CB Buffalo Signed 5 years, $19.4 million ($12.6M guaranteed)
12. Ryan Clady OT Denver Signed 5 years, $17.5 million ($11.5M guaranteed)
13. Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina Signed 5 years, $20 million ($10.795M guaranteed)
14. Chris Williams OT Chicago Signed 5 years, $16 million ($10M guaranteed)
15. Branden Albert OG Kansas City Signed 5 years, $15.8 million ($9.2M guaranteed)
16. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Arizona Signed 5 years, $15.1 million ($9M guaranteed)
[b]17. Gosder Cherilus OT Detroit Signed 5 years, $15 million ($8.9M guaranteed)
18. Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Signed 5 years, $30 million ($8.75M guaranteed)
19. Jeff Otah OT Carolina Signed 5 years, $14.4 million ($8.965M guaranteed)
20. Aqib Talib CB Tampa Bay Signed 5 years, $14 million ($8.2M guaranteed)
21. Sam Baker OT Atlanta Signed 5 years, $13.5 million ($7.8M guaranteed)
22. Felix Jones RB Dallas Signed 5 years, $10.5 million ($8M guaranteed)
23. Rashard Mendenhall RB Pittsburgh Signed 5 years, $12.555 million ($7.125M guaranteed)
24. Chris Johnson RB Tennessee Signed 5 years, $12 million ($7M guaranteed)
25. Mike Jenkins CB Dallas Signed 5 yaers, $9.7 million ($7M guaranteed)
26. Duane Brown OT Houston Signed 5 years, $11.4 million ($6.5M guaranteed)
27. Antoine Cason CB San Diego Signed 5 years, $12.03 million
28. Lawrence Jackson DE Seattle Signed 5 years, $11.25 million ($6.1M guaranteed)
29. Kentwan Balmer DE San Francisco Signed 5 years, $11.5 million ($6M guaranteed)
30. Dustin Keller TE N.Y. Jets Signed 5 years, $12 million ($6M guaranteed)
31. Kenny Phillips FS N.Y. Giants Signed 5 years, $11.15 million

2008 First Rounders: Littered with Slotting Busters

How many examples do people want? 100, 1000. What will convince them that the sanctity of the slotting is a hoax.

P.S. Maybe a math genius can help me count how many guys are out of their slot. Seems like more than half, right. In fact, this is a fun math game to play. Figure out how many out of slot selections were in the first round last year.

I could break this entire thing down for the board, but it would probably take me hours to compose, and people would eventually complain that it is too lengthy.

And, this was ONE round of ONE year.

"Geez, MadDog, you are a genius!"
Response: "Yes, I can read!"

Cheers.

Question, aside from Ryan (Qb's usually make more) aren't all other subsequent players slotted correctly for guaranteed money? Everybody is making more then the guy directly below him. The only other 2 contracts that were bigger then the previous guy were only for $200,000, not a lot of money compared to the overall contract. Furthermore I'm not seeing a leapfrog happen with 2 players that play the same position or a salary jump of 3 players total. I get your point but............

30
29
34
26
23
21
19.5
17.1
15.6
13.8
12.6
11.5
10.7
10
9.2
9
8.9
8.7
8.9
8.2
7.8
8
7.1
7
7
6.5
NA
6.1
6
6
NA

You are only looking at guaranteed money, which is certainly one way to slice it. However, slotting is not simply based on this idea. It is also based on average salary per year. Here's how the slotting falls apart. Let me take the first handful of players.

While Chris Long receives a guaranteed salary higher than Darren McFadden, in the end, if the contract plays out, McFadden will make more money, by $3.5 million. However, McFadden's yearly salary is even lower than the player below him, Glenn Dorsey, who will make more per year than Long and McFadden.

McKelvin's salary beats Mayo's, Stewart's salary trumps Clady's. And he list goes on and on. The bottom half of the first round is a disaster, as Dustin Keller's contract leaps over many other draftees.

I have argued for some time now that Crabtree's contract is going to be unusual at the end. Either it is going to have more guaranteed money than some of the players drafted above him, or his annual salary will surpass players drafted above him.

Further, I have always stated that the notion that Crabtree should simply bow to the sanctity of the slotting, which does not exist, would be foolish. There are circumstances where players, for some reason, either gain an imbalance in either their total contract numbers, annual salary, or guaranteed money.

The trend for guaranteed money was/is pretty much set and followed. I would imagine having guaranteed money is better then a bunch of incentive based elevators that usually aren't reached. The issue still remains when does a player leapfrog another player who plays the same position? I can see arguing the fact that some positions are held in a higher regard then others so a jump could be made but in this case it makes no sense.

I can haz Crabtree contract?

i think he will sign over the weekend after first preseason game

this guy is going to be a problem,he is a me player.
not good when you are building a team. [imo][/left]

Originally posted by 5timechamps:
this guy is going to be a problem,he is a me player.
not good when you are building a team. [imo][/left]

He's still a kid. A couple of years playing for Singletary will turn him into a man. Singletary doesn't have the patience for diva's and has the credibility to put them into their place.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You are only looking at guaranteed money, which is certainly one way to slice it. However, slotting is not simply based on this idea. It is also based on average salary per year.

. . .

Further, I have always stated that the notion that Crabtree should simply bow to the sanctity of the slotting, which does not exist, would be foolish. There are circumstances where players, for some reason, either gain an imbalance in either their total contract numbers, annual salary, or guaranteed money.

I disagree with you. The contract slotting does exist. It's clear that the guaranteed money overwhelming follows the slotted system. It's equally clear that the "average yearly salary" does not.

The difference is that the guaranteed money (and generally the first 3 or 3 years of the deal) are real numbers and the AYS is a largely meaningless number (as in, made up or "imaginary").

As you know, the AYS is reached by dividing the total value of the contract by the contract length (# years). However, the total contract value is an almost meaningless number b/c few (if any) rookies will ever actually receive most of (let alone all of) the total contract value. Few, if any, ever hit all the incentives, receive all the bonuses, and make all the "total contract value" they signed on for. That's why it's a meaningless number.

For example, look at Clements' deal. His AYS is huge, but in reality he'll never get that much money. His actual AYS is still big, but its not nearly as big as the AYS # would indicate. That's why his AYS is a "made up number", just like those of the rookies'.

Based on that, I guess, i'd be happy to give Crab a 6 year deal with the last year having a nonguaranteed roster bonus of 25mill. WOW. Then he'd have a top 3 AYS, but his actual guaranteed money and the first 4 or 5 years of his deal (the "real" numbers he's likely to receive) fit within the #10 slot. THEN there will be idiots crowing about how his deal blew out the slotting system b/c of how big his AYS was, when in reality, it did nothing of the kind. It would still set a bad precedent b/c every year the "fake year numbers" would get bigger and bigger, thereby shortening the legitimate contract length.

The guaranteed figures (including the "log" bonus) and the first few years' salary are really the only numbers that matter. The AYS is largely a meaningless number.

Originally posted by SybErkRimInAL:
I can haz Crabtree contract?

Originally posted by DownSouth:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You are only looking at guaranteed money, which is certainly one way to slice it. However, slotting is not simply based on this idea. It is also based on average salary per year.

. . .

Further, I have always stated that the notion that Crabtree should simply bow to the sanctity of the slotting, which does not exist, would be foolish. There are circumstances where players, for some reason, either gain an imbalance in either their total contract numbers, annual salary, or guaranteed money.

I disagree with you. The contract slotting does exist. It's clear that the guaranteed money overwhelming follows the slotted system. It's equally clear that the "average yearly salary" does not.

The difference is that the guaranteed money (and generally the first 3 or 3 years of the deal) are real numbers and the AYS is a largely meaningless number (as in, made up or "imaginary").

As you know, the AYS is reached by dividing the total value of the contract by the contract length (# years). However, the total contract value is an almost meaningless number b/c few (if any) rookies will ever actually receive most of (let alone all of) the total contract value. Few, if any, ever hit all the incentives, receive all the bonuses, and make all the "total contract value" they signed on for. That's why it's a meaningless number.

For example, look at Clements' deal. His AYS is huge, but in reality he'll never get that much money. His actual AYS is still big, but its not nearly as big as the AYS # would indicate. That's why his AYS is a "made up number", just like those of the rookies'.

Based on that, I guess, i'd be happy to give Crab a 6 year deal with the last year having a nonguaranteed roster bonus of 25mill. WOW. Then he'd have a top 3 AYS, but his actual guaranteed money and the first 4 or 5 years of his deal (the "real" numbers he's likely to receive) fit within the #10 slot. THEN there will be idiots crowing about how his deal blew out the slotting system b/c of how big his AYS was, when in reality, it did nothing of the kind. It would still set a bad precedent b/c every year the "fake year numbers" would get bigger and bigger, thereby shortening the legitimate contract length.

The guaranteed figures (including the "log" bonus) and the first few years' salary are really the only numbers that matter. The AYS is largely a meaningless number.

Agree with this completely.

We should give Crabtree a 6 year, $45 million heavily backloaded contract with $18 million guaranteed.

But he'll hold out in the final years of his rookie deal then....

[ Edited by crzy on Aug 10, 2009 at 09:26:54 ]

Originally posted by cestmoi:
He wasn't a diva at Texas Tech, why are people so convinced he is one now?
Have any of you met him? I have a few times and he wasn't a diva, he was cool to me, and I'm a nobody ... a diva would have blown me off.

I pray that David Wells is an idiot & Crabz won't ever really take any advice from him at all.

Saturday, August 15th, 2009 at 2:23pm.

What do I win if I'm right?

Originally posted by Nes49:

Originally posted by cestmoi:
He wasn't a diva at Texas Tech, why are people so convinced he is one now?
Have any of you met him? I have a few times and he wasn't a diva, he was cool to me, and I'm a nobody ... a diva would have blown me off.

I pray that David Wells is an idiot & Crabz won't ever really take any advice from him at all.

Well, half of your prayer has already been answered.