QB Competition

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by BrodieFan:
Again, if you based your predictions on past statistics and not on team trends, after Terry Bradshaw's second season, you would have had to call him a bust. Going into his third season, it wouldn't have mattered to you that the team had added young talent on offense and defense to go around Bradshaw. It wouldn't have mattered that he had a deeper receiving corps by his third year. All that would have mattered is his disasterous statistics in his first two years - 46 ints!! Can't post a winning record! Get him outta there!

Again, the stats are only proving what has happened and do not tell the future.

Exactly. That's all I'm saying. And, don't get me wrong, I think things almost always fall with the statistical analysis, but in the NFL, you just never know for sure.

The stats don't lie. For whatever reasons, Alex has been a bad quarterback in the NFL. In my opinion and many others opinions, he has NOT shown the "IT" factor! NFL QB's need "IT". He has not displayed the confidence needed to succeed.

Shaun Hill has shown he might have this in his 10 games. Alex has shown the opposite.

Whoever the Niners' QB is, I want him to do well!! Shaun, Alex, Damon, whoever!!!

Originally posted by swim4speed:


Whoever the Niners' QB is, I want him to do well!! Shaun, Alex, Damon, whoever!!!

Well, at least this is saying something right.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Philip-Rivers-gets-beat-by-a-high-schooler-does?urn=nfl,176581

Did someone say QB competition?

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by yoyo49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

I know I am guilty of geting into the "statistics" arguement but I think at this point it is rather meaningless to look at Smith's and Hill's prior stats. It doesn't matter what stat anyone brings up whether it is against or for Smith, this QB competition is in full swing and the starter will be decided on what each player can do from this point on.

Of course Shuan Hill has the advantage in this QB competition because he does not have to look all the great, he just has to perform as well Smith. He doesn't even have to out play him. However, for Smith to win the job he has to be, hands down, the better looking QB this pre-season and he has only Training Camp and two games to prove it.

So at this point their stats really are useless when it comes to this competition. Although it is not uncommon to see a QB turn around their career after a slow start. We can only hope Smith can pull of that kind of turn around as well.

I agree 100%. The stats were only provided to quantify what one of the posters above stated (that Alex appeared to regress towards the end of 06 and beginning of 07). In this case the stats are useful because they give us the factual data to support or refute such a claim.

Well I now know better than to get into a stat war with you. I had to learn the hard way.

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
THIS

... but OL protection and WR seperation are just Alexcuses. As a 1st overall pick, Alex was supposed to shrug off the one or three defenders and throw the perfect pass OR was supposed to quickly release the pass in such a way that the receiver had 3-5 seconds after the pass to then run under it or get open.

Hmmm... someone remind me, who was our leading receiver in 06? Oh, that's right... it was Gore... our dump-off target. Mean anything?... naaaaahhh!

"Rushing is more dependent on the offensive line than people realize, but pass protection is more dependent on the quarterback himself than people realize."

Link

In 2007, [i]Alex's pre-injury games (3) he gave up 9 sacks[/i]. Same year, an inexperienced QB, who was getting his first start ever, only gets 6 sacks in 3 games behind the same line.

I don't know about you, but I would think the guy with 20+ starts would have a lot less sacks then the guy that had almost no NFL game experience.

So it is Smith's fault that he was sacked nine times in three games?That is bulls**t,the only thing a qb can do to avoid a sack when the line sucks like that is throw it away,which Smith did,leading to poor completion %'s.I been watching football for over 30 years,and there is no part of the team,no matter what the stat geeks try to claim,that is more responsible for sacks than the offensive line.You ask any coach or player and they will tell you that the offense is only as good as the offensive line allows it to be,who gives a f**k what some number crunching geeks claim?Have they ever played football?I think not.That "inexperienced" 6 year veteran was not playing behind the same line either,I guess you didn't watch the games.Smiley and Jennings were replaced before Hill ever came in,and Tollner stepping in as an "adviser" helped as well.So your trying to say that Smith is the sole reason Smith got sacked is not only ridiculous,but factually wrong.

WTF, When did I ever say it was the sole reason? You need to learn to read son.

And Yes, I think Alex has his share of fault for those 9 sacks. He held the ball way too long, and was slow moving through his progressions. He did not see Wide open receivers and overthrew the simplest of passes way too often.

So tell me,what does this mean other than he was the sole reason he was sacked?Is there some other meaning to those words than what they are commonly held to mean?I agree he held on to the ball too long,especially when his wr's were not getting open and his line was parting like the red sea.I did not say that he had no fault in getting sacked,he could have gotten rid of the ball,even if it was incomplete.But your statement is worded like he was the sole reason for the sacks,which is total bunk.So,if you do not want to get chastised for making ridiculous statements...don't make them.I didn't mean to hurt your feelings,but you guys are getting ridiculous with the Smith bashing.Also,I am not your son,I am likely old enough to be your father and have probably been watching the niners since before you were out of diapers,maybe even in them.

Talk about grasping at straws... Let me ask you this. Did you think I said it was all Hill's fault that he got 6 sacks? No!... Maybe you're just so on edge about anything anyone posts regarding Alex that your ready to fight first and ask questions later. You know what they say about assuming, right? It makes an Ass out of U and Ming.

Now to answer your question. It means that Alex an experienced QB (20+ starts) was sacked 9 times in 3 games; but, an inexperienced QB (0 starts) was sacked only 6 times in 3 games. If your capable of looking at this objectively, you will see that the 20+ start guy must be doing something wrong.

As for calling you son, I'm sorry. I know this may be hard to accept; but, I didn't mean to infer that I was literally your dad. Age seems to be a big deal to you; so, if it helps, you and I are just about the same age. I love how most 30 something year old posters think everyone on here is younger then they are...

I only think someone is younger than me when they act like it D.You need to work on your english composition though,you did not make your point clear at all.The way you stated what you were TRYING to get across was unclear and made it sound like you blame Smith for those nine sacks,when the line had a lot more to do with it than he did.Looking at it objectively,you might see that the changes in the offensive line were more important than who was taking the snaps.Furthermore,I assumed nothing,I took what you posted at face value,for what the words mean in the english language.If there was any assumption made,it was you assuming that the words you lined up in the order you did could possible mean something other than what they do.For the record,I am not hung up on who starts at QB,I like Hill and Smith,and think we will do fine with either.I do not like it when "fans" bash on ANY player on the team,least of all one that has shown loyalty to the team where 95% of the rest of the NFL players would have jumped ship and trashed the team for handling him they way they have to date.I know you didn't mean anything with the son remark,but it is funny that you commented that I should learn to read when it was your sorry compositional skills that led to this argument.

boy we sure get riled up over here over pathetic QB's. Yeah lets debate over who sucks the least. Sounds like loads of fun.

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Talk about grasping at straws... Let me ask you this. Did you think I said it was all Hill's fault that he got 6 sacks? No!... Maybe you're just so on edge about anything anyone posts regarding Alex that your ready to fight first and ask questions later. You know what they say about assuming, right? It makes an Ass out of U and Ming.

Now to answer your question. It means that Alex an experienced QB (20+ starts) was sacked 9 times in 3 games; but, an inexperienced QB (0 starts) was sacked only 6 times in 3 games. If your capable of looking at this objectively, you will see that the 20+ start guy must be doing something wrong.

As for calling you son, I'm sorry. I know this may be hard to accept; but, I didn't mean to infer that I was literally your dad. Age seems to be a big deal to you; so, if it helps, you and I are just about the same age. I love how most 30 something year old posters think everyone on here is younger then they are...

I only think someone is younger than me when they act like it D.You need to work on your english composition though,you did not make your point clear at all.The way you stated what you were TRYING to get across was unclear and made it sound like you blame Smith for those nine sacks,when the line had a lot more to do with it than he did.Looking at it objectively,you might see that the changes in the offensive line were more important than who was taking the snaps.Furthermore,I assumed nothing,I took what you posted at face value,for what the words mean in the english language.If there was any assumption made,it was you assuming that the words you lined up in the order you did could possible mean something other than what they do.For the record,I am not hung up on who starts at QB,I like Hill and Smith,and think we will do fine with either.I do not like it when "fans" bash on ANY player on the team,least of all one that has shown loyalty to the team where 95% of the rest of the NFL players would have jumped ship and trashed the team for handling him they way they have to date.I know you didn't mean anything with the son remark,but it is funny that you commented that I should learn to read when it was your sorry compositional skills that led to this argument.

I wrote what I meant; but you read something different. Instead of asking what was meant you assumed something that wasn't said and now your trying to point the finger. Let's see, out of the thousands of people on this board only one had a problem with how it was written... This has gone so far off topic, I'm not going to bother discussing it anymore.

Go ahead and get your last word in and lets be done with it



BTW, as far as English composition goes, the "E" should always be capitalized in English.

Originally posted by yoyo49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by yoyo49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

I know I am guilty of geting into the "statistics" arguement but I think at this point it is rather meaningless to look at Smith's and Hill's prior stats. It doesn't matter what stat anyone brings up whether it is against or for Smith, this QB competition is in full swing and the starter will be decided on what each player can do from this point on.

Of course Shuan Hill has the advantage in this QB competition because he does not have to look all the great, he just has to perform as well Smith. He doesn't even have to out play him. However, for Smith to win the job he has to be, hands down, the better looking QB this pre-season and he has only Training Camp and two games to prove it.

So at this point their stats really are useless when it comes to this competition. Although it is not uncommon to see a QB turn around their career after a slow start. We can only hope Smith can pull of that kind of turn around as well.

I agree 100%. The stats were only provided to quantify what one of the posters above stated (that Alex appeared to regress towards the end of 06 and beginning of 07). In this case the stats are useful because they give us the factual data to support or refute such a claim.

Well I now know better than to get into a stat war with you. I had to learn the hard way.

I do love me some stats; but, I thought you held your own.

This was to go in the now-locked thread, so I'm just sticking it here instead. Not trying for an argument... it's just something I was thinking of in response to a comment.

Originally posted by alanbeez22:
numbers game. how often does a pass go for over 30 yards? not often right? and shaun hill is accurate between the 5-30 yards right? so if he's accurate for 90% of the game and alex smith is not accurate between the 5-30 yard range. then what does arm strength really matter if you're RARELY THROWING A LONG BOMB! ALL THIS STUPID ARM STRENGTH TALK IS BULLSHHHHHHHHH-it. ACCURACY IS WHAT MATTERS IN THE LEAGUE! NOT SOMEONE WHO COULD LAUNCH IT! if we wanted a person who could throw the long ball we would go and trade for jamarcus russell! he has a arm. not accurate! that's why garcia is fighting for the #1 spot for the raiders! NO STRONG ARM! accurate between 5-30 yards!

YES IM MAD!

It's not so much about how often deeper passes are thrown... it's about the threat of having a deep ball thrown on any given pass play. Whether it actually happens often or not doesn't matter.

Assume for the moment that all things are equal with our two QB's in regard to accuracy and vision...

If Hill is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play closer to their man/LOS. This would lessen the cushion and room that Hill could squeeze in the short and intermediate passes... therefore daring Hill to try one deep. ( makes it tougher for your run game too ) CBs can play more inside of their man and dare Hill to try and throw the sideline patterns... can he get the needed velocity on those out-passes before the CB can jump on it?

If Alex is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play their game more honestly (i.e. less press, more off). This would open up more room because the deep ball becomes more of a threat on any given pass play. ( also, opens up room for your RB ) It affects the very playcall, due to deciding where your safeties are needed. CBs must account more for every inch of the field, as an accurate and stronger arm can fire the ball in anywhere with less chance of INT-floaters.

So all things equal? You want the stronger arm (duh, I know).

Originally posted by oldman9er:
This was to go in the now-locked thread, so I'm just sticking it here instead. Not trying for an argument... it's just something I was thinking of in response to a comment.

Originally posted by alanbeez22:
numbers game. how often does a pass go for over 30 yards? not often right? and shaun hill is accurate between the 5-30 yards right? so if he's accurate for 90% of the game and alex smith is not accurate between the 5-30 yard range. then what does arm strength really matter if you're RARELY THROWING A LONG BOMB! ALL THIS STUPID ARM STRENGTH TALK IS BULLSHHHHHHHHH-it. ACCURACY IS WHAT MATTERS IN THE LEAGUE! NOT SOMEONE WHO COULD LAUNCH IT! if we wanted a person who could throw the long ball we would go and trade for jamarcus russell! he has a arm. not accurate! that's why garcia is fighting for the #1 spot for the raiders! NO STRONG ARM! accurate between 5-30 yards!

YES IM MAD!

It's not so much about how often deeper passes are thrown... it's about the threat of having a deep ball thrown on any given pass play. Whether it actually happens often or not doesn't matter.

Assume for the moment that all things are equal with our two QB's in regard to accuracy and vision...

If Hill is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play closer to their man/LOS. This would lessen the cushion and room that Hill could squeeze in the short and intermediate passes... therefore daring Hill to try one deep. ( makes it tougher for your run game too ) CBs can play more inside of their man and dare Hill to try and throw the sideline patterns... can he get the needed velocity on those out-passes before the CB can jump on it?

If Alex is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play their game more honestly (i.e. less press, more off). This would open up more room because the deep ball becomes more of a threat on any given pass play. ( also, opens up room for your RB ) It affects the very playcall, due to deciding where your safeties are needed. CBs must account more for every inch of the field, as an accurate and stronger arm can fire the ball in anywhere with less chance of INT-floaters.

So all things equal? [b]You want the stronger arm (duh, I know).[/b]

Right there with ya brotha. on a post that just got closed, someone said which would you rather have, a weak armed accurate qb or a strong armed inaccurate one. Well if anyone read about what was said, by smith, sing, scotty, and above all hill himself since the beginning of this offseason, says that smith´s arm hasnt looked this good in a long time, accurate passes with zip. So to the person that wrote the 2 options, it should say as a current up to date assessment, words from Sing, both men are on the same playing level. So now it should read; weak arm accurate qb, or strong arm accurate qb. And i dont think i have to say which one it should be. But for the crazies out there, that misinterpret, it should be the stronger arm, just like you said old man:)

Originally posted by Jersey9er:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
This was to go in the now-locked thread, so I'm just sticking it here instead. Not trying for an argument... it's just something I was thinking of in response to a comment.

Originally posted by alanbeez22:
numbers game. how often does a pass go for over 30 yards? not often right? and shaun hill is accurate between the 5-30 yards right? so if he's accurate for 90% of the game and alex smith is not accurate between the 5-30 yard range. then what does arm strength really matter if you're RARELY THROWING A LONG BOMB! ALL THIS STUPID ARM STRENGTH TALK IS BULLSHHHHHHHHH-it. ACCURACY IS WHAT MATTERS IN THE LEAGUE! NOT SOMEONE WHO COULD LAUNCH IT! if we wanted a person who could throw the long ball we would go and trade for jamarcus russell! he has a arm. not accurate! that's why garcia is fighting for the #1 spot for the raiders! NO STRONG ARM! accurate between 5-30 yards!

YES IM MAD!

It's not so much about how often deeper passes are thrown... it's about the threat of having a deep ball thrown on any given pass play. Whether it actually happens often or not doesn't matter.

Assume for the moment that all things are equal with our two QB's in regard to accuracy and vision...

If Hill is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play closer to their man/LOS. This would lessen the cushion and room that Hill could squeeze in the short and intermediate passes... therefore daring Hill to try one deep. ( makes it tougher for your run game too ) CBs can play more inside of their man and dare Hill to try and throw the sideline patterns... can he get the needed velocity on those out-passes before the CB can jump on it?

If Alex is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play their game more honestly (i.e. less press, more off). This would open up more room because the deep ball becomes more of a threat on any given pass play. ( also, opens up room for your RB ) It affects the very playcall, due to deciding where your safeties are needed. CBs must account more for every inch of the field, as an accurate and stronger arm can fire the ball in anywhere with less chance of INT-floaters.

So all things equal? [b]You want the stronger arm (duh, I know).[/b]

Right there with ya brotha. on a post that just got closed, someone said which would you rather have, a weak armed accurate qb or a strong armed inaccurate one. Well if anyone read about what was said, by smith, sing, scotty, and above all hill himself since the beginning of this offseason, says that smith´s arm hasnt looked this good in a long time, accurate passes with zip. So to the person that wrote the 2 options, it should say as a current up to date assessment, words from Sing, both men are on the same playing level. So now it should read; weak arm accurate qb, or strong arm accurate qb. And i dont think i have to say which one it should be. But for the crazies out there, that misinterpret, it should be the stronger arm, just like you said old man:)

I'm the one that wrote that, and I agree that if Smith's accuracy, ability to read the D, ability to lead, and speed of release are the same as Hill's then Smith (because of the stronger arm) should start.

The thing is, I don't think all things are equal... And obviously neither does Sing. he's stated that if he had to choose one of these guys to go with right now, It would be Hill...

its funny how the media/"experts" and some fans on here are questioning Shaun Hill's ablitiy to convert 3rd and longs....when THE FACT IS, I HAVE SEEN HILL CONVERT MORE 3rd and longs THAN ANY....YES ANY OF OUR QBs THESE PAST 4 YEARS.

Also...what is even better is that Shaun has put us in situations where we ARE NOT in many 3rd and long situations in the first place.

give it a rest people.

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by swim4speed:
We all know that Alex Smith's best season was in 2006 with Norv Turner. That season he threw 16 TD's, but also 16 interceptions. That is not good. With more attempts, he would have thrown over 20 interceptions. His completion % was 58. That is not good. His QB rating was 74, I think. That is mediocre.

His first 3 games of 2007, he played poorly. He still looked very mediocre and in fact looked like he got worse from 2006. They won 2 games DESPITE alex's poor performances.

Statistically speaking he did get worse. I created some trend charts for various QB stats and in all categories that I looked at, Alex started regressing or wearing down over the second 1/2 of 2006. Unfortunately this trend continued into the beginning of 2007 (before the injury).

This is precisely what I've been saying in about 20 Alex Smith threads now...

Alex PEAKED in the first quarter of the 2006 season. Since then, he has lost all confidence and has regressed. Of course he made some good plays in the rest of the '06 season (as you'd expect in those many games), but his play overall took a turn for the worst.

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by Jersey9er:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
This was to go in the now-locked thread, so I'm just sticking it here instead. Not trying for an argument... it's just something I was thinking of in response to a comment.

Originally posted by alanbeez22:
numbers game. how often does a pass go for over 30 yards? not often right? and shaun hill is accurate between the 5-30 yards right? so if he's accurate for 90% of the game and alex smith is not accurate between the 5-30 yard range. then what does arm strength really matter if you're RARELY THROWING A LONG BOMB! ALL THIS STUPID ARM STRENGTH TALK IS BULLSHHHHHHHHH-it. ACCURACY IS WHAT MATTERS IN THE LEAGUE! NOT SOMEONE WHO COULD LAUNCH IT! if we wanted a person who could throw the long ball we would go and trade for jamarcus russell! he has a arm. not accurate! that's why garcia is fighting for the #1 spot for the raiders! NO STRONG ARM! accurate between 5-30 yards!

YES IM MAD!

It's not so much about how often deeper passes are thrown... it's about the threat of having a deep ball thrown on any given pass play. Whether it actually happens often or not doesn't matter.

Assume for the moment that all things are equal with our two QB's in regard to accuracy and vision...

If Hill is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play closer to their man/LOS. This would lessen the cushion and room that Hill could squeeze in the short and intermediate passes... therefore daring Hill to try one deep. ( makes it tougher for your run game too ) CBs can play more inside of their man and dare Hill to try and throw the sideline patterns... can he get the needed velocity on those out-passes before the CB can jump on it?

If Alex is under center, it would make sense for DBs to play their game more honestly (i.e. less press, more off). This would open up more room because the deep ball becomes more of a threat on any given pass play. ( also, opens up room for your RB ) It affects the very playcall, due to deciding where your safeties are needed. CBs must account more for every inch of the field, as an accurate and stronger arm can fire the ball in anywhere with less chance of INT-floaters.

So all things equal? [b]You want the stronger arm (duh, I know).[/b]

Right there with ya brotha. on a post that just got closed, someone said which would you rather have, a weak armed accurate qb or a strong armed inaccurate one. Well if anyone read about what was said, by smith, sing, scotty, and above all hill himself since the beginning of this offseason, says that smith´s arm hasnt looked this good in a long time, accurate passes with zip. So to the person that wrote the 2 options, it should say as a current up to date assessment, words from Sing, both men are on the same playing level. So now it should read; weak arm accurate qb, or strong arm accurate qb. And i dont think i have to say which one it should be. But for the crazies out there, that misinterpret, it should be the stronger arm, just like you said old man:)

I'm the one that wrote that, and I agree that if Smith's accuracy, ability to read the D, ability to lead, and speed of release are the same as Hill's then Smith (because of the stronger arm) should start.

The thing is, I don't think all things are equal... And obviously neither does Sing. he's stated that if he had to choose one of these guys to go with right now, It would be Hill...

Of course it would be silly billy gum drops, sorry watching blankman wit my son. He did finish the season, so by DEFAULT, he would be the starter. 'Can you imagine the headlines if it read qb thats been out for 2 years, wows em in OTA´S and is named the starter, over the guy that helped us finish the season. We´d definitely be the laughing stock of the league. And if your words were true, then you would also be saying that sing is blowing smoke like nolan, and we all agree he´s a man of truth, conviction, and no bs. So if by his standards it´s equal then thats good enough for me. So come on brotha d, throw in the towel on this one.