QB Competition

We all know that Alex Smith's best season was in 2006 with Norv Turner. That season he threw 16 TD's, but also 16 interceptions. That is not good. With more attempts, he would have thrown over 20 interceptions. His completion % was 58. That is not good. His QB rating was 74, I think. That is mediocre.

His first 3 games of 2007, he played poorly. He still looked very mediocre and in fact looked like he got worse from 2006. They won 2 games DESPITE alex's poor performances.

Originally posted by swim4speed:
We all know that Alex Smith's best season was in 2006 with Norv Turner. That season he threw 16 TD's, but also 16 interceptions. That is not good. With more attempts, he would have thrown over 20 interceptions. His completion % was 58. That is not good. His QB rating was 74, I think. That is mediocre.

His first 3 games of 2007, he played poorly. He still looked very mediocre and in fact looked like he got worse from 2006. They won 2 games DESPITE alex's poor performances.

See things as you see fit, but I still disagree. Considering the 20% receiver drops, porous OL protection, and any other outside factors (alexcuses to some), and he was on his way to being a good QB. As has been said many times, damn near everyone was seeing Alex turn the corner after 2006. He then played better than most of the supporting offense to secure 2 wins in his three 2007 games (the loss, a tough one vs Pitt) to bring us to 2-1 before injury. Too much myopic, bottom-line thinking here, and it's sad to see from so many fellow 9er fans.

Originally posted by swim4speed:
We all know that Alex Smith's best season was in 2006 with Norv Turner. That season he threw 16 TD's, but also 16 interceptions. That is not good. With more attempts, he would have thrown over 20 interceptions. His completion % was 58. That is not good. His QB rating was 74, I think. That is mediocre.

His first 3 games of 2007, he played poorly. He still looked very mediocre and in fact looked like he got worse from 2006. They won 2 games DESPITE alex's poor performances.

Statistically speaking he did get worse. I created some trend charts for various QB stats and in all categories that I looked at, Alex started regressing or wearing down over the second 1/2 of 2006. Unfortunately this trend continued into the beginning of 2007 (before the injury).

While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Yes, I quoted myself, and do not require statistics to recall how Alex played. I'm not and never have labeled him a star, but your statistics don't paint an accurate picture... they are just statistics. Obviously, McC and Sing don't put much into your statistics either, and there is a reason for that. Think I will side with them and my own observations... rather than your misleading stats and fuzzy memory (if you even watch the games).

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

Or you can just go back and watch your recorded games.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

Or you can just go back and watch your recorded games.

Yeah, If you got em... My wife deleted a lot off of the Tivo before I could record them to DVD

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

Or you can just go back and watch your recorded games.

Yeah, If you got em... My wife deleted a lot off of the Tivo before I could record them to DVD

Help takes the pain away during the off season. Matter of fact I just got done watching week 17.

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

I know I am guilty of geting into the "statistics" arguement but I think at this point it is rather meaningless to look at Smith's and Hill's prior stats. It doesn't matter what stat anyone brings up whether it is against or for Smith, this QB competition is in full swing and the starter will be decided on what each player can do from this point on.

Of course Shuan Hill has the advantage in this QB competition because he does not have to look all the great, he just has to perform as well Smith. He doesn't even have to out play him. However, for Smith to win the job he has to be, hands down, the better looking QB this pre-season and he has only Training Camp and two games to prove it.

So at this point their stats really are useless when it comes to this competition. Although it is not uncommon to see a QB turn around their career after a slow start. We can only hope Smith can pull of that kind of turn around as well.

I am going to say one thing and one thing only!! I love how a majority of the people in this forum think they are much more educated and football sound then the professional coaches that have made a living off of this, and continue to make millions and physically played the game, and is a hall of famer. I'm not saying all players can coach, but come on!! Don't act like Sing is F***ing sh** up. YOU ARE A NOBODY!! IT's their job to know what to do, not you!! Deal with it and observe. Opinions are fine, but acting like you know better, it's hilarious and it makes you look IGNORANT!

Again, if you based your predictions on past statistics and not on team trends, after Terry Bradshaw's second season, you would have had to call him a bust. Going into his third season, it wouldn't have mattered to you that the team had added young talent on offense and defense to go around Bradshaw. It wouldn't have mattered that he had a deeper receiving corps by his third year. All that would have mattered is his disasterous statistics in his first two years - 46 ints!! Can't post a winning record! Get him outta there!

Originally posted by yoyo49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by oldman9er:
While statistics are extremely valuable, they are also notorious for being a means that people use to make false and misleading arguments.

Said by someone who cannot provide any statistics to prove his point...

All the numbers Ive looked at are straight forward and I invite anyone on here to look at them without any manipulation...

Chart any of the following for Alex and you will see a declining trend... I used 2006 and 2006 + 2007 pre injury data from NFL.com player data. Looking at a standard, linear, trend line all of the following showed a declining trend.

Completion %.
QB Rate.
Yards per game.
Yards average per completion.


Data Link

Some of you guys act like I'm going out of my way to try and discredit Smith or something. All I'm doing is posting factual data and my personal opinion of what that data is saying.

I know I am guilty of geting into the "statistics" arguement but I think at this point it is rather meaningless to look at Smith's and Hill's prior stats. It doesn't matter what stat anyone brings up whether it is against or for Smith, this QB competition is in full swing and the starter will be decided on what each player can do from this point on.

Of course Shuan Hill has the advantage in this QB competition because he does not have to look all the great, he just has to perform as well Smith. He doesn't even have to out play him. However, for Smith to win the job he has to be, hands down, the better looking QB this pre-season and he has only Training Camp and two games to prove it.

So at this point their stats really are useless when it comes to this competition. Although it is not uncommon to see a QB turn around their career after a slow start. We can only hope Smith can pull of that kind of turn around as well.

I agree 100%. The stats were only provided to quantify what one of the posters above stated (that Alex appeared to regress towards the end of 06 and beginning of 07). In this case the stats are useful because they give us the factual data to support or refute such a claim.

God can we just stop fighting over Alex's past stats and all that junk. The fact of the matter is that Alex has looked awesome so far in practice. It means absolutely NOTHING though! I'm not an Alex hater, as a matter of fact I think Alex will win the starting job and become a very good QB for us in the future; however, right now all of us only know two things...Alex hasn't shined when given the chance (yeah yeah I know...lack of talent around him, Mike Nolan blah blah blah) and Shaun Hill has looked good when given the chance (I don't give a damn who he played against, or how he played in the 3rd quarter). For now all we can do is wait and see what happens...all other arguments are absolutely pointless...the end!

Let the competition begin
I'm pulling for you Alex

Originally posted by BrodieFan:
Again, if you based your predictions on past statistics and not on team trends, after Terry Bradshaw's second season, you would have had to call him a bust. Going into his third season, it wouldn't have mattered to you that the team had added young talent on offense and defense to go around Bradshaw. It wouldn't have mattered that he had a deeper receiving corps by his third year. All that would have mattered is his disasterous statistics in his first two years - 46 ints!! Can't post a winning record! Get him outta there!

Again, the stats are only proving what has happened and do not tell the future.