Originally posted by Kolohe:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by Kolohe:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by Kolohe:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by Kolohe:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by jones49:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Originally posted by BrodieFan:
Norcal9er fan makes a good point! Based on what we've seen so far, Shaun Hill should start! There, Norcal9er, do you feel better?
Shaun Hill, at this point, should indeed start.
Thats webzone blasphemy.
Hey I love all our QBs, honestly. Whoever Sing decides gives us the best chance to win, I'll support. The hope is that it'll be Alex eventually and that he proves he can be the guy so we can be set with a franchise QB for years to come, because we know Shaun Hill isn't going to be that.
No way of knowing that, you could pretty much say that about any QB.
Well, true. I'll give that. But as he's past 30 now, it's not like he has that much longer left, and it doesn't appear the coaches seem confident in Hill as a long term answer either. But, perhaps he could be?
Actually hes only 29 years old, Kurt Warner is 38 and still going. So that still gives Hill 7-8 years to prove himself worthy in this league. But I haven't really got that feeling that the coaches don't have confidence in Hill. The signs I've got is that there just giving Smith his equal shot to redeem himself. Singletary has said if the season was to start today, Hill would be the starter.
Let me correct myself, I mean to say he's ALMOST past 30.
Kurt Warner is one of very few QB's that could actually last that long. The Warren Moon's, Favre's and Warners are extremely rare and make up but a small fraction of the league. Most good QB's hit the tail-end around 35, like Mark Brunell and McNair. (RIP) :(
It's just, how often do you see QB's start playing great at 29 or 30? It's unusual.
I think Hill is the short-term answer until we find his replacement, whether that be Smith or a new, developing, hot prospect rookie (or Nate Davis).
Again, Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Jon Kitna (back to back 4,000 yard seasons), Jim Plunkett, Steve Young...off the top of my head.
But whether QB's are the short-term or long t-term answer is really up to the QB on how long he can play good consistently. Say, Hill gets us to the Playoffs 5 years in a row, what would you consider that, short-term or long-term??
In the end its about taking advantage of the opportunity given to you and solidifying it, that's all that matters.
Well, there you go! Like I said, that kind of player is fairly rare. Young retired 10 years ago. Plunkett almost 25 years ago. Garcia could be, but at this point isn't slated to start in Oakland. He was lucky (just like Warner was) to revive his career, and I'm glad he did because I liked him as a player. Kitna's career as a starter pretty much ended last year (at the age of the 35) with Detroit.
Looking at teams these days, those with starting QB's getting farther into their 30's are:
Panthers: Delhomme - 34
Titans: Collins - 36
Colts: Manning - 33
Dolphins: Pennington - 33, this could be his last year starting.
Cardinals: Warner - 38, retirement coming soon.
Seahawks: Hasselbeck - 33, career almost ended due to injury last year.
6/32 teams with starters 33 or older, or 18.75% and only 2 teams with starters over 35 -- It's not easy to sustain "good" play for that long. Back-up status, yes. But the former, not so much.
It's all up to Hill what happens, unless he gets hurt. Because if he doesn't play well enough to win in the playoffs, I would have no doubts that our team would still think about replacing him. We're always looking to upgrade at any position. Unless Hill does well enough, his job isn't safe. Who knows? Maybe he'll be Delhomme-like (in terms of early success) for a while?
But the thing I know is our coach and GM have Alex quite intently on their minds because he was supposed to be the man of the future. With that fact, I have a strong feeling they won't hesitate to put Alex in when they feel he's ready, barring great play by Hill. Shaun has a lot of pressure to perform, knowing this. I will be very happy if either quarterback plays and excels. As long as they're winning, that's what is important.
Of course I could give you more names, but the fact is, its not rare or common that a QB performs well at the age of 30 or more. Shoot, Alex Smith's best years could just be in his 30's. Shoot, Peyton Manning didn't win a Super Bowl till he was 30, actually 29 but his birthday is the month after the Super Bowl, but whatever. Anything can happen, its not science, its just a matter of time.
I think I'd consider it more "common" if around a third of the league or so had players at the older ages performing so well. The only point that I was trying to illustrate was the highly possible lack of longevity. You can go farther back and there is really no substantial difference in the ratio of starting QB's at that age, whether they be playing well or not, even.
Hill has never started a full NFL season. We are unsure if he can even stay healthy for that long.
Almost all of those QB's aside from Delhomme and Manning could be looking at either the end of their careers entirely, or their starting careers being over this year or next.
Now, on whether Hill can or can't do it, I'm not sure. I think he has the ability to do well for at least 2-3 years, maybe 4 if he stays healthy, but I don't know if he will.
If he stays here that long, there's a high probability we're going to be drafting a QB anyways, because Alex will have left by then and we'll look to draft someone else to develop along with Nate Davis.

