Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by BangBang49er:

Originally posted by Strwy2Hevn:

Originally posted by TTown9ers:
82% of his passing yards last night were YAC. So lol.

Perfect game plan for Jimmy

Yup as Kyle said and I'm a paraphrasing but air yards are highly inefficient compared to short efficient high percentage throws. This is why he drafts YAC people.

Fans obsession with fantasy football stats is unbelievably naive.

It's not a fantasy stat. It's a REALITY stat. It tells you exactly how much the QB contributed to the distance the pass travels. Moreover, last year the correlation between win/loss percentage and completed air yards was STRONGER (0.3226) than the correlation between win/loss and interceptions per game (0.04399 Pearson Correlation Coefficient).





So if completed air yards is "fantasy football," then what are interceptions per game, which correlated 7 times weaker than completed air yards did last year? (And if you doubt this math, recall that three of the QBs in the AFC and NFC championship were bottom ten in interception percentage, while all three were top ten in CAY/PA. Stafford was 7th in INT%, Burrows was 9th, and Jimmy was 10th.Stafford was 1st in CAY/PA, Burrows was 2nd, and Jimmy was 7th. )

(It should be noted, of course, that both had weak correlations with win/loss percentage compared to 1D% and touchdowns).

Correlation isn't causation.
At the very least, if you're going to use correlation then use a much larger sample size. The NFL is notoriously high variance.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
The ball has to travel a longer distance. That's a risk. It's easier to throw high over the middle than far enough at that angle toward the sideline. Could he have done it? Sure. But he has to wonder if Ramsey is baiting him, or if he will be accurate enough. The key here is that an inaccurate pass high to Kittle is an incomplete, while under throwing in the flat is a pick six. Risk/reward.

Jimmy just didn't see it. That's all there is to it. He turned his head away from Aiyuk before he made his final break to the outside. This is evident from the TV angle. Any NFL QB can make that throw. Maybe he predetermined he wasn't going to challenge Ramsey...but Aiyuk was wide open. The throw to Kittle was far more dangerous and difficult. It was a great throw actually. Kittle just couldn't get 2 feet down. Best option was the throw to Aiyuk...which he didn't see.

Ramsey has been burned by plenty of receivers. We do ourselves a disservice to let his reputation scare us. He got burned by chase so bad. Aiyuk can do the same.

he's not Revis or Sherman. Far from it. Go at him

Originally posted by Leathaface:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
The ball has to travel a longer distance. That's a risk. It's easier to throw high over the middle than far enough at that angle toward the sideline. Could he have done it? Sure. But he has to wonder if Ramsey is baiting him, or if he will be accurate enough. The key here is that an inaccurate pass high to Kittle is an incomplete, while under throwing in the flat is a pick six. Risk/reward.

Jimmy just didn't see it. That's all there is to it. He turned his head away from Aiyuk before he made his final break to the outside. This is evident from the TV angle. Any NFL QB can make that throw. Maybe he predetermined he wasn't going to challenge Ramsey...but Aiyuk was wide open. The throw to Kittle was far more dangerous and difficult. It was a great throw actually. Kittle just couldn't get 2 feet down. Best option was the throw to Aiyuk...which he didn't see.

Yup. I pointed this play out immediately after the game and recognized it live.. ball should go to BA there. You described it perfect Leathaface.. JG got off BA too quick to staredown a doubled Kittle which is where the ball ended up.. JG lucky / good throw not to get picked there tossing into a double team.. very big ask for Kittle to beat two defenders and toe tap with his body out of the back of the endzone

Force feed aiyuk. I don't see who else he should focus on. Kittle is blocking for the crappy 3rd string LT. Deebo is more of a rb. Juice you can sprinkle in. BA should be his first read.

I wonder if River boat Ron regrets not going for Jimmy?

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:
I wonder if River boat Ron regrets not going for Jimmy?

I would say he's definitely not losing sleep over it.

Originally posted by All22:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by BangBang49er:

Originally posted by Strwy2Hevn:

Originally posted by TTown9ers:
82% of his passing yards last night were YAC. So lol.

Perfect game plan for Jimmy

Yup as Kyle said and I'm a paraphrasing but air yards are highly inefficient compared to short efficient high percentage throws. This is why he drafts YAC people.

Fans obsession with fantasy football stats is unbelievably naive.

It's not a fantasy stat. It's a REALITY stat. It tells you exactly how much the QB contributed to the distance the pass travels. Moreover, last year the correlation between win/loss percentage and completed air yards was STRONGER (0.3226) than the correlation between win/loss and interceptions per game (0.04399 Pearson Correlation Coefficient).





So if completed air yards is "fantasy football," then what are interceptions per game, which correlated 7 times weaker than completed air yards did last year? (And if you doubt this math, recall that three of the QBs in the AFC and NFC championship were bottom ten in interception percentage, while all three were top ten in CAY/PA. Stafford was 7th in INT%, Burrows was 9th, and Jimmy was 10th.Stafford was 1st in CAY/PA, Burrows was 2nd, and Jimmy was 7th. )

(It should be noted, of course, that both had weak correlations with win/loss percentage compared to 1D% and touchdowns).

Correlation isn't causation.
At the very least, if you're going to use correlation then use a much larger sample size. The NFL is notoriously high variance.

No kidding. That's why I said correlation and not causation.

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:
I wonder if River boat Ron regrets not going for Jimmy?

I would say he's definitely not losing sleep over it.

No, probably just gonna lose his job.

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:
I wonder if River boat Ron regrets not going for Jimmy?

I would say he's definitely not losing sleep over it.

No, probably just gonna lose his job.

nah, I think he'll get another year regardless of how they do.

Even though its Jimmy's like 8-9 year I think his throws/accuracy would improve tremendously if he stepped into his throws instead of back footing it. Even with clean pockets and lanes he never does it. Hope he does and improves!

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Ninerlakerdodger:
I wonder if River boat Ron regrets not going for Jimmy?

I would say he's definitely not losing sleep over it.

No, probably just gonna lose his job.

Who cares? I kinda feel bad for em with the name change, but other than that, meh. Been irrelevant long enough I just wish we could play them more often.

Another day closer

Originally posted by Leathaface:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
The ball has to travel a longer distance. That's a risk. It's easier to throw high over the middle than far enough at that angle toward the sideline. Could he have done it? Sure. But he has to wonder if Ramsey is baiting him, or if he will be accurate enough. The key here is that an inaccurate pass high to Kittle is an incomplete, while under throwing in the flat is a pick six. Risk/reward.

Jimmy just didn't see it. That's all there is to it. He turned his head away from Aiyuk before he made his final break to the outside. This is evident from the TV angle. Any NFL QB can make that throw. Maybe he predetermined he wasn't going to challenge Ramsey...but Aiyuk was wide open. The throw to Kittle was far more dangerous and difficult. It was a great throw actually. Kittle just couldn't get 2 feet down. Best option was the throw to Aiyuk...which he didn't see.

This is the most likely explanation as he does it often.

However, I disagree to an extent that the throw to Kittle was more dangerous (although I've only looked at the play twice: once live and once after), because what you're supposed to do is put it where no one can get it: high and away from the defenders. The angle from the midpoint line is small, making it an easier throw to make. By being easier, it is less dangerous. A throw into the flat takes a while to get there, and one runs the risk of it being undercut—unless the QB is throwing it more like a fade and putting it where no one can get it but the WR. But it's easier to under throw the longer throw to the flat than the back of the end zone throw, and that ultimately is why I say it's less dangerous.

Watch, Jimmy G takes the Niners to the Super Bowl and wins. "Just following in Brady's footsteps, you all passed on him in the draft, and you all passed on me when I was available."